So… Who’s left?

[SD Transplant]

Still in lurk/reading mode with little participation. I do visit frequently.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=earlyretirement]…But I have no respect for someone that calls a bubble, sees prices crash tremendously and then try to say prices will fall forever and end up being a life long perpetual renter.

That just doesn’t make sense to me.[/quote]

I’ve seen a couple of handfuls of posters on this board that fall into this category, ER. Here, a few actually believed that SD County properties in prime coastal zip codes would eventually be “half off” if they just waited long enough, lol.

If you try to knock some sense into them, you are accused of being a “permabull,” a “pollyanna,” a “realtard,” or worse, a “NAR lackey.”

What these wishful-would-be buyers never took into account was that:

-the most desirable properties in the most desirable “coastal enclaves” in CA are frequently held by “the best hands;”

-those “best hands” will only sell when it suits them (and no family member has shown an interest in owning it), not a day sooner, and, maybe never;

-there wasn’t that much of a “run-up” in prices in these areas during the millenium boom as their were in other, lesser-expensive areas because a much higher “price floor” was in existence there BEFORE the millenium boom began;

-the “best hands” who owned properties in these prime areas had no need to “cash out” repeatedly in order to travel, buy vehicles and bling and pay their monthly bills, thus they were never “underwater”;

-there is a high incidence of free-and-clear property owners in these areas;

-there is a low incidence of “underwater property owners” in these areas, and, in any case, a lender would likely have foreclosed on a defaulted property in these locations early on before allowing the trustors to squat too long. (After all, they’re not completely stupid) :=0

-and, a “best hands” owner can afford to list just to “test the market.”

A few Piggs seemed “shocked” when what they thought was a “great offer” they submitted was turned down flat without a counter offer :=0

We haven’t heard from some of these Piggs in awhile who were waiting for bargain-basement prices on the coast. It’s very possible that some decided to suspend their search or ended up moving away.

[Anonymous]

There are still a lot of reasons to think real estate prices may suffer going forward.

First of all, if there are major government cuts, sequestration, etc. that will most likely cause a national recession and that will cost jobs and of course negatively affect real estate.

Contrary to what Mitt Romney claimed that “government can’t create jobs”, we’ll find out if sequestration happens that government in fact is responsible for creating a shit load of jobs. The loss of said jobs will F-up the economy.

Secondly, the housing recovery that is happening now is with historical low interest rates. Rates in fact that literally have nowhere to go but up. Even with these low rates the recovery is very subdued and most of the price increase is really due to the low inventory, not due to incredible demand.

So going forward, if there is a major hit to the national economy (of which big cuts to government spending will most certainly cause), what is the federal reserve going to do to pump up the markets this time? They’ve already played all of their bullets. They’ve announced QE infinity and interest rates are nearly as low as they can go. What are they going to do if we go into recession now??

[earlyretirement]

[quote=bearishgurl]
I’ve seen a couple of handfuls of posters on this board that fall into this category, ER. Here, a few actually believed that SD County properties in prime coastal zip codes would eventually be “half off” if they just waited long enough, lol.

If you try to knock some sense into them, you are accused of being a “permabull,” a “pollyanna,” a “realtard,” or worse, a “NAR lackey.”

We haven’t heard from some of these Piggs in awhile who were waiting for bargain-basement prices on the coast. It’s very possible that some decided to suspend their search or ended up moving away.[/quote]

I haven’t read this site long enough to know the personalities like other sites I’ve posted on. It’s only recently that I started posting more on this site. I enjoy some of the personalities and I find this site has some really intelligent posters. I’ve met a few of the Piggington posters in real life and so far all have been really articulate, intelligent and all around good guys.

BG, I wouldn’t take too much offense at what someone anonymous says on a message board. I’ve been posting on various message boards since the Internet started and one thing I’ve learned is many people will say things and act much different on these anonymous boards and some of them would never act this way or say things to your face in real life.

Back in 2004/2005/2006 I told anyone that would listen that the real estate market was going to crash in the USA. I told them all the reasons why once I started taking a good look what the derivatives market was doing and how these financial companies were packaging up this toxic debt and selling it off.

I liquidated my USA real estate portfolio in 2004 (admittedly a few years early) and even moved out of the USA.

I was accused by many people of being an idiot. Sure property prices did go up more for a few years. After all, it’s difficult to catch the absolute bottoms and absolute tops. For a few years people kept going on and on about how real estate was going to go up forever.

A funny thing. Once the market crashed, these people totally disappeared. The people that kept posting how it was “easy money” buying in Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Southern California just vanished once the market crashed.

I also know people on the other side that kept thinking prices would fall forever. I didn’t follow this board back then so I don’t know the ones calling for prices to fall to 50% more in Coastal California but I certainly remember on sites like Patrick.net where several people posted things would keep falling, etc.

I didn’t enter the USA real estate market again until mid 2011 when I figured prices were at a reasonable price relative to rents. I only wish I bought more then. But I’m not stressed as there will probably be more buying opportunities and chances to get real estate cheap again.

I moved back to the USA in 2011. People like to rag on our government or the USA or say that things are going to hell. But I honestly do believe our best days are still ahead of us. After living outside of the USA for several years you begin to appreciate what we have here in the USA and the quality of life, lack of red tape, efficiency, and safety.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=earlyretirement]…BG, I wouldn’t take too much offense at what someone anonymous says on a message board…[/quote]

ER, you may have already come to the conclusion here that I have overly-thick skin where even raindrops pool over my shoulder :=]

[no_such_reality]

It depends where they are at. If they wanted an old money area, they’re foolish. If they wanted a desirable gentrified area, their window was a few years ago when prices were 50% off peak.

You can see this in the downtown area of Huntington Beach by the pier.

Neighboring properties, one getting foreclosed at $800K while the neighbor trying to sell for $1.6M:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/317-7th-St-Huntington-Beach-CA-92648/69246918_zpid/

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/319-7th-St-Huntington-Beach-CA-92648/69246917_zpid/

And I think I actually toured those when they were rebuilt in 2007, and $1.6M seems low.

Corona del Mar, you see a lot of chasing the market. Things like this, 35%-40% of post peak asking.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/612-Iris-Ave-Corona-Del-Mar-CA-92625/25497382_zpid/

Or this, 40% off peak asking. http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/415-Heliotrope-Ave-Corona-Del-Mar-CA-92625/25498210_zpid/

Or this, chasing from $2.995M in 2009 to $1.8M when it sold last year.

Or this one, 20% off of the 2004 price. http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2616-Ocean-Blvd-Corona-Del-Mar-CA-92625/51673450_zpid/

And make what you will of the 2008 asking of $5.5M only to sell in 2010 for $2.875M

And finally, one last crack pipe hit. Listing for $20M in 2010 but finally selling in 2012 for $9.5M.
And having it listed pretty much the whole time.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/210-Hazel-Dr-Corona-Del-Mar-CA-92625/25139714_zpid/

They still made out like bandits though with 6X their 1997 price.

[Hatfield]

I think like a bunch of other folks, I somehow wound up here by way of the Yahoo QCOM chat board. I mostly lurk here, either because most of the folks here are way more knowledgeable than I am, or because I want to side-step the more political discussions. I do chime in from time time on stuff I do have first-hand experience with (managing rental units, and lots of OT stuff).

Shame to see such a sudden turnover of old hands, but it seems like there’s still plenty of wise folks floating around to make this board continue to be a worthwhile read.

[TexasLine]

Long time lurker – posted a few times, but not in the last couple of years. I only check this site a few times a month now. I used to read and absorb daily.

I’ve given up, emotionally, intellectually, financially etc; resigned myself to renter status. I’m still a bit bitter at the govn’t prop-ups that occurred, but one still needs to deal with reality. I am so very grateful for all the things I have learned through this site. Thank you for that.

Truthfully, I’m at the financially low end of responsible home ownership. I decided to focus on other debt and loose the home ownership dream.

I am utilizing the Dave Ramsey approach and hoping at the other end I’ll be reward for the sacrifice. Which is not a “sacrifice” at all but rather a more prudent financial path.

…Student loans suck!…I’m 40+ years old and still dealing with that monster.

[Jazzman]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=earlyretirement]…But I have no respect for someone that calls a bubble, sees prices crash tremendously and then try to say prices will fall forever and end up being a life long perpetual renter.

That just doesn’t make sense to me.[/quote]

I’ve seen a couple of handfuls of posters on this board that fall into this category, ER. Here, a few actually believed that SD County properties in prime coastal zip codes would eventually be “half off” if they just waited long enough, lol.

If you try to knock some sense into them, you are accused of being a “permabull,” a “pollyanna,” a “realtard,” or worse, a “NAR lackey.”

What these wishful-would-be buyers never took into account was that:

-the most desirable properties in the most desirable “coastal enclaves” in CA are frequently held by “the best hands;”

-those “best hands” will only sell when it suits them (and no family member has shown an interest in owning it), not a day sooner, and, maybe never;

-there wasn’t that much of a “run-up” in prices in these areas during the millenium boom as their were in other, lesser-expensive areas because a much higher “price floor” was in existence there BEFORE the millenium boom began;

-the “best hands” who owned properties in these prime areas had no need to “cash out” repeatedly in order to travel, buy vehicles and bling and pay their monthly bills, thus they were never “underwater”;

-there is a high incidence of free-and-clear property owners in these areas;

-there is a low incidence of “underwater property owners” in these areas, and, in any case, a lender would likely have foreclosed on a defaulted property in these locations early on before allowing the trustors to squat too long. (After all, they’re not completely stupid) :=0

-and, a “best hands” owner can afford to list just to “test the market.”

A few Piggs seemed “shocked” when what they thought was a “great offer” they submitted was turned down flat without a counter offer :=0

We haven’t heard from some of these Piggs in awhile who were waiting for bargain-basement prices on the coast. It’s very possible that some decided to suspend their search or ended up moving away.[/quote]
This would be a pretty narrow spectrum of the market. Yes, many wealthy home owners were unscathed, but then so were many less wealthy home owners. But to say the high end was immune is simply not true. There were many +$1m homes that went into foreclosure, and my guess is that very few so-called bears were waiting out in hope of snapping up a McMansion. I’ve been reading and posting here for quite a few years, and generally, posts have been quite informative. The elections were the turning point.

If I had a criticism, is might be that the forum tended to be a little cliquey. My first post was met with “he must be out of town”. Another might be that, like all RE forums it ends up being a face-off between protectors of their livelihood, and …the rest.

Facebook has also seen a drop in numbers. So maybe people are waking up to getting a life. That said, I’m out of here.

[CA renter]

[quote=Jazzman]ER I think this misses the point about so-called ‘permabears’. I certainly don’t see myself (or many others) as one thing or the other, but I’ve found it useful to improve my short term memory, so a few jogs from those ‘bearish’ corners is a good thing. Furthermore, I don’t recall anyone saying prices will fall forever, but I do recall many saying prices never fall. For those (bears or whatever) who did buy eventually, it was probably out a sense of despair that the game was rigged and there was really nothing anyone could do about it. I personally don’t believe we are out of the woods yet, because of the overwhelming support for home prices and the swathe of foreclosures yet to clear through the system. I don’t think it has anything to do with being down on the economy, but more to do with being cautious. On the other side of the coin, I don’t see bulls either, just those who took a hammering during the downturn now seeking some false sense of vindication. It’s all a bit childish really.[/quote]

Totally agree with your entire post, and wanted to highlight the bolded part, especially. I’ve been on the RE bubble blogs since ~2003 (back during the WSJ bubble blog), and have met many wonderful bubble bloggers and posters in person over the years. Many of us have indeed purchased in recent years, not because we thought it was the “bottom” of the market, but because PITI/rent parity was reached, almost entirely due to the Fed’s ZIRP, and also because of the never-ending market manipulation at all levels.

This was the big worry of many bubble-sitters in the early years — that the Fed/govt would prolong the downturn with all manner of manipulations so that by the end of it all, the amount of rent paid for all those years would offset the savings made from buying a house at the bottom vs. the peak. Additionally, many of us have families and other issues that made us feel the need to buy sooner rather than later. The manipulators have succeeded, but at least many of us were able to buy well below peak prices, and for those who’ve used financing, they were able to get historically low fixed-rate mortgages. We didn’t win, but we didn’t lose as much, either.

And yes, things will get very, very interesting if/when interest rates ever normalize. In the meantime, we all have to get on with our lives.

I certainly hope you’re not really going to stop coming here, too, Jazzman. I’ve always enjoyed your posts.

[CA renter]

[quote=deadzone]There are still a lot of reasons to think real estate prices may suffer going forward.

First of all, if there are major government cuts, sequestration, etc. that will most likely cause a national recession and that will cost jobs and of course negatively affect real estate.

Contrary to what Mitt Romney claimed that “government can’t create jobs”, we’ll find out if sequestration happens that government in fact is responsible for creating a shit load of jobs. The loss of said jobs will F-up the economy.

Secondly, the housing recovery that is happening now is with historical low interest rates. Rates in fact that literally have nowhere to go but up. Even with these low rates the recovery is very subdued and most of the price increase is really due to the low inventory, not due to incredible demand.

So going forward, if there is a major hit to the national economy (of which big cuts to government spending will most certainly cause), what is the federal reserve going to do to pump up the markets this time? They’ve already played all of their bullets. They’ve announced QE infinity and interest rates are nearly as low as they can go. What are they going to do if we go into recession now??[/quote]

Totally agree with you, deadzone.

[sdduuuude]

I’m still here.

Still think housing will trade in a range for many years 10? 15 ?. Definitely heading to the top of the range, even extending the range now.

I can’t imagine sales numbers can pick up much with such low inventory. in the stock market, when the market soars on low volume, how seriously do you take the rally ? Does that apply to housing ? Maybe with much longer time-frames.

We don’t need a tsunami of inventory to turn this back to some sense of normalcy. Just a normal flow of inventory would do. is it coming ? I just don’t know.

[Jazzman]

CA Renter, your comments much appreciated, and your reasons or buying are solid. It’s encouraging to see buyers (myself included) have retained a healthy dose of skepticism. I drop in from time to time as I still think this forum is good.

BG I just paid my property tax bill from Feb to Aug 2013 of $187.55. I wish I knew how to post a copy of the bill on the forum. PM me and I’ll send a copy. Crazy isn’t it? My retired next door neighbor pays even less. It’s a hard life out here in Hawaii 🙂

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Jazzman]CA Renter, your comments much appreciated, and your reasons or buying are solid. It’s encouraging to see buyers (myself included) have retained a healthy dose of skepticism. I drop in from time to time as I still think this forum is good.

BG I just paid my property tax bill from Feb to Aug 2013 of $187.55. I wish I knew how to post a copy of the bill on the forum. PM me and I’ll send a copy. Crazy isn’t it? My retired next door neighbor pays even less. It’s a hard life out here in Hawaii :)[/quote]

$750 yr taxes … not bad, Jazzman. How big did you say your condo in HI was again?

And can you keep the Piggs apprised of your search for a house in France? Inquiring minds want to know if you found something there that you will be able to “retire” in 🙂

[barnaby33]

This has happened multiple times. Sometimes for the better. Anyone want Powayseller back? Lots of people came and went, some stayed.

I think all the other angles have been covered and I’d just say, yeah, what afx said.

Oh and in case I forgot to come out of the closet, I bought a townhouse/condo in Mission Valley.

Josh

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