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Jazzman
ParticipantBuyer fatigue is referring to the drop in sales due to changing market conditions. It’s not a personal stamina issue inflicting buyers.
Participant[quote=SK in CV][quote=Jazzman]Just read this is the Washington Post:
“[I]nventories of homes listed for sale rose 7.8 percent during July in Los Angeles, 12.5 percent in San Diego, signed contract offers were down [I]n San Diego, the monthly decline exceeded 10 percent. [S]igns of “buyer fatigue.” Affordability is beginning to erode down by 4.4 percent from the previous quarter. [P]rice gains in the double digits that were commonplace in coastal California, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Washington and parts of Florida starting 24 months ago have gradually begun to self-correct.”
I love that term “self-correct”. There something very correct about the self taking control.[/quote]
I’m not all that excited about the term “self-correct”, but beyond that, I’m not sure there’s any evidence yet of price changes. If YOY increases continue, we’re still seeing price increases, even if the rate of increase declines. Prices can remain flat for quite a few months still in those markets mentioned, and we’ll still have YOY increases. I don’t think it’s accurate to call it a “correction” unless prices fall significantly. It may happen, but I don’t think it’s happened yet. A leveling off is probably more likely, which would not be a correction.[/quote]
If interest rates rise and inventory increases, it stands to reason we’ll see the inverse reaction in prices. It’s probably more a case of whether the air seeps out slowly enough that we don’t notice it. Flat eventually becomes a decline.ParticipantJust read this is the Washington Post:
“[I]nventories of homes listed for sale rose 7.8 percent during July in Los Angeles, 12.5 percent in San Diego, signed contract offers were down [I]n San Diego, the monthly decline exceeded 10 percent. [S]igns of “buyer fatigue.” Affordability is beginning to erode down by 4.4 percent from the previous quarter. [P]rice gains in the double digits that were commonplace in coastal California, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Washington and parts of Florida starting 24 months ago have gradually begun to self-correct.”
I love that term “self-correct”. There something very correct about the self taking control.
ParticipantIt would seem to depend on who you speak to. Some economists talk of a huge bond bubble, which will lead to a big unwind. Others, that inflation is key to interest rates rises. If June was anything to go by, then how many pension funds will still be sitting in bonds by September may telling. Tapering may be fine in theory, but the herd mentality seems to dictate what happens in practice. I think inventory will still dictate home prices as much as interest rates, and that the alignment of those two planets is what will drive home prices down. In the mean time, I’d be more worried about fixed income investments.
ParticipantBG, the garage you are seeing in the photo is not a garage, but the entrance to one of the two cellars, which are not included in the sq ft. The garage is to the right, and is plenty big enough for our needs.
In answer to your questions and comments above, I’m not quite sure what your point is in reference to air quality, but as to “very exclusive areas”, how so? We must have very different ideas about exclusivity. I think of Beverly Hills, Rancho Santa Fe, Cap Ferrat. Marin County is nice but not exclusive. Montetico may have parts which are exclusive, but Santa Barbara certainly isn’t. Expensive, yes, but that is not the same thing, and drives at the core of the issue.
Coastal areas usually carry a premium, but inland cities can be equally expensive e.g. Pasadena, Sierra Madre, San Marino, Paris, London. So you cannot measure home values based on proximity to the coast, moreover, coastal areas are not all created equally.
We weren’t looking for a condo and only bought the one in Maui due its price per sq ft and location. It was almost half the price for comparable condos we’d seen (even in Maui). We are a few minutes walk to the ocean, with restaurants literally on the shore line. We are also right next to stores. The choice was made easier because it left us enough to buy a more substantial home in France, which is a much more regulated and less bubble prone market.
BG, we were very committed to buying in CA, and I very much doubt you will find many buyers who conducted such a thorough search over the many years as we did. But, we became increasingly disillusioned with a market that wreaked havoc around the world, and yet still managed to rob those who waited patiently of an opportunity. This is why we expanded our search.
I know you have a problem with my perspective, because it seems unimaginable that anyone could question your undying loyalty to CA, but trust me our choice was preferable in that it conformed more to our needs, cultural sensibilities, and vindicated our sense fairness. There is no bitter, convoluted psychological process involved.
Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I think it’s pointless to argue whether a place in Hawaii plus France better, worse, or equivalent to a place in Santa Barbara. Or whether the view in the western US is soulless. These can’t be proven. There’s no data that can be brought that can decide.
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Agreed. You can’t make comparisons and shouldn’t try. You can however espouse the virtues or otherwise of a place and say what makes you happier, which I guess is what it is all about in the end.Participant[quote=bearishgurl]
FSD, I think I suggested Ojai to Jazzman as an alternative to pricey SB in the first thread I pulled up. I don’t recall but either he didn’t find anything he liked there or didn’t want to compromise from SB. Again, nothing wrong with his choice not to.
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Did look at Ojai, and would often go there from Santa Barbara. It is small so choice is limited and prices not much different.ParticipantBG, if you haven’t seen the world, you really should make it a priority. It will open your horizons. Too much introspection blinds thinking with detail. It will change your outlook on things, and give you new perspectives, which you can’t gain by sitting at home in front of the telly watching wild life programs or CNN. Go with an open mind and be prepared to accept things at face value, rather than judging them with your own value system. Then take what you like and discard what you don’t.
Pics of the Dordogne
[img_assist|nid=17492|title=Gardens|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=67]
[img_assist|nid=17487|title=Les Cabanes du Brueil|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=75]
[img_assist|nid=17490|title=Monpazier|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=67]
[img_assist|nid=17489|title=Dordogne River|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=68]
[img_assist|nid=17491|title=Chateau|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=63]ParticipantFlyerInHi, you have it down.
I’ll add that Europe is comprised of a vast network of farm steads, hamlets, villages, towns and cities, all tightly interlinked by road, rail, airports and even water networks. The capital cities are huge, but the vast majority of people don’t live there. Towns, and even villages often attract wealthy people, artists, and can be very cosmopolitan. There are cultural events, restaurants, movies, and all manner of modern conveniences. Sarlat has probably more restaurants per square mile than Paris and is so (literally) breathtakingly beautiful, with its medieval houses, market square and little streets you will never, ever forget it. The houses are built with the local yellow sandstone and glow in the sunshine. It will make you smile. The countryside is dotted with chateaux atop hills that punctuate the landscape like a fairytale. Troglodyte dwellings litter the valleys, demonstrating the resourcefulness of our earliest ancestors. And then there is the French way of life, the mentor to all bon viveurs. A relaxed, convivial, moderate but resplendent existence that owes so much to centuries of refinement and enjoyment of the good things in life.
You miss out on travel, you miss out on life. Seeing is believing.
ParticipantLOL! Great to get some feedback BG! Nice to see you are still on form and sounds like you had a great trip. We’ve to’d and fro’d over this so many times, but I just wanted to hang some tangible meat on the core issue, which is that (comparative) value can still be had out there. All (most) Piggs know what caused the bubble and what prevented a full correction in prices. Those causes and preventions are not innate to and binding on all RE markets, despite the contagion that spread well beyond bubble prone markets.
I am a little surprised by one or two of your comments. Having spent several years searching for a home in CA, it could hardly give rise to the notion I never intended to buy here. Also, if you have never been to Europe that wouldn’t qualify you to comment on local services, which I can promise you are at least as are good as anywhere in the developed world. These kinds of comparisons are not very meaningful IMO.
The main thing is I feel very content that overall I’ve come out on top. That of course is subjective, but then isn’t that what it boils down to? But the maths is fun too. I get two beautiful homes in two very sort after places, for the price of one in a place that has not convinced me is twice as good. Put that in ya’ pipe and smoke it!
ParticipantUCGal, yes, I have dual residency.
Participant[quote=flyer]What we love most about both HI and France is the atmosphere–so conducive to creativity. Although my wife is an exec in the film business, she also writes screenplays, and has done some of her best work in these locations.
We love surrounding ourselves with creative people, and have met some amazing souls in both HI and France.[/quote]
Both these places do seem to attract creative types, and are not really the rural backwaters some seem to think. We’ve met a very cosmopolitan mix, with many sharing the same idea of splitting time between two places. Life never gets dull.Participant[quote=givdrvr]Congrats on your aquisitions Jazzman! What vehicles did you use to find your dream home in France?[/quote]
Greenacres.com is about the best for some areas, followed by Leggett and Rightmove.co.uk, but the best method is to pound the sidewalks and visit individual agents offices close to the locations you are looking in. With the market so down in France, agents are more responsive and you will find you get the red carpet treatment. You are a rare beast if you are looking in this market …that’s usually the best time in my books. It’s past the delusional seller stage and asking prices are a bit more realistic, but low ball offers perfectly acceptable. Houses are sitting anything up to 5 years. One thorn is exchange rates which make the Eurozone expensive. If you believe the dollar will strengthen, then that might be a temporary blip. Loans are hard to come by, so the market favors cash buyers.Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Congrats that you’re getting a nice property in France after the bubble popped, perhaps at the bottom. It’s happened a few years after we had our crisis .
I heard that France is now trying new measures to revive moribund housing market.
Yeah Oahu is expensive and compared to the stone houses in France, the quality sucks — like cardboard houses really.
Are your dealing with la canicule in France now?[/quote]
I’m back in Hawaii now, but there was a ferocious heat wave across Europe that claimed several hundred lives. Didn’t seem that ferocious compared to Hawaii 🙂 -
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