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h82rent
ParticipantLA_Renter, I agree with you to the extent that we are at an inflection point. I just don’t see/hear a “pop”. More like a slow hiss as the air comes out, maybe? I just know that I make a good salary, and have a good amount for a downpayment, and I’m stunned at the fact that I can still only afford a POS, or live somewhere where I will spend a large part of my life fighting traffic.
I am a (hopeful) housing bear, and in fact enjoy the fact that I made a little extra money from SRS (the housing short ETF), but I’m not too sure how things will tumble over the next year. With the political ramifications going into November 2008, we might not see too much of a decline. I hope I’m wrong.
ParticipantTake the personal feelings about Bush completely out this for a second. Here’s what you are looking at. We have a huge bubble, and we have very recent experience with the fallout of the last (tech) bubble. Many People felt the pain of that burst, even though there was a ton of speculation there, too. People invested in the stocks like crazy, were happy as anything as things skyrocketed, but lost their savings and retirements as things came screaming back down. And if they didn’t get out, all they could do is remorse about their speculation. There was no bailouts. Government didn’t do anything to help these people with shattered dreams and wrecked finances. After all, they lost money in the stock market. But it was just money. They weren’t injured, they didn’t lose family, they didn’t lose shelter. They speculated and lost. End of story.
But now, we have another huge bubble, this time in housing. But I think this bubble is much more “real”. We have a nation of homeowners from ALL classes that don’t want this bubble to burst. We also have a nation of lenders, brokers, realtors, investors, etc, that don’t want the bubble to burst either. And they will be very vocal about it. And they will plead to anyone necessary in government to prevent them from losing their assets. Losing their well-being! Losing their shelter! (even though they could rent, but nobody ever seemst to mention that).
And so whoever is in office – Bush, Clinton, Obama, Guliani, whoever – are going to have to respond to this. And Bernanke is going to hear the pressures to lower interest rates. At first, I was convinced that this bubble is going to pop. Very loudly and very quickly. But given the political ramifications of this issue, I’m not so sure anymore. And if all the Bush-bashers out there think he screwed up today, don’t think it’s over. There is going to be much more screw-ups on this issue by him and Bernanke. But it doesn’t stop there. You can bet you’re a$$ that if a Democrat takes office, they will do anything to save Mr. and Mrs. Poor Homeowner. And probably do even more than Bush did today.
And I’m very impartial about politics. I am neither Democrat nor Republican. And I want the housing market (in San Diego) to crash and burn. I just think that politics could very easily keep this bubble fully inflated for a long time. Especially with elections coming up. I wish it weren’t true, but these kind of political decisions you heard about today are certainly not over. In fact, I think it’s just the beginning folks.
ParticipantI sold two motorcycles there. No problem. Friends have bought furniture from other people there. Also no problem.
ParticipantI sold two motorcycles there. No problem. Friends have bought furniture from other people there. Also no problem.
ParticipantMOVE’s stock has been rapidly approaching a bottom from the beginning of the year. It will be fun to watch how many times he calls the bottom of the their stock.
March 4, 2007 at 7:01 PM in reply to: If Convinced Stock Market is Heading South, How Best to Profit? #46892ParticipantI echo what deadzone said regarding ProShares. They have inverse ETFs (which attempt to return the opposite of the Dow, S&P or NAZ. And they have ultra inverse ETF’s, which attempt to return twice the opposite of the indicies.
You can lean more about them here:
http://www.proshares.com/fundsCurrently, I have a decent amount in QID (ultra inverse the NASDAQ). Mostly in stable accounts now, but have about 10% or so in QID.
I also agree with others who caution you to be careful. I think that is always the case. Stocks, home purchasing, etc. But if you do want a short position, these funds are an easy way to do it.
Good luck (to all)!
ParticipantPerryChase, your assumptions are correct.
I work by the 163/15/52 intersections. But my hours are flexible, and I regularly drive all over Southern CA (between LA and SD mostly).
sdcellar, why now? Great question. I guess I haven’t found a neighborhood I liked, in an area I liked, and be able to get into it (even though I would have to borrow into 401k – which I always advise people not to do).
It should be a warning flag to me… I consider myself to be quite finacially savvy.
As I said, I’ve been reading this forum for a long time, and have felt like chiming in so many times, but haven’t. I will more often now. The thing I like about it, no matter what bakgrounds and personalities we have, it seems like there are some decent thinkers on the board.
So, thanks for the support and feedback. Man, it’s like a support group for rehabbing buyers or potential buyers!
I might just sit tight for this summer and watch more, but we’ll see.
I’d welcome any other thoughts.
ParticipantWiley, ProShares UltraShort is one ETF that PS might have been referring to. It’s investment goal is to return twice the inverse. It trades as QID.
ParticipantPowayseller, if you decide to post elsewhere let us know. I filter what I do/don’t want to read from you and everyone else. I still want to have that opportunity in the future, as I miss some of the postings from people who left this forum.
ParticipantAgain, I will defer to others much smarter than I am WRT San Diego verus LA markets. I would say that it all depends on where you live in both areas. I think both cities are very similar… some zip codes are way different than others, but all of them are waaaay overpriced, and we both live in one of the most expensive areas of the entire country.
For rental comparisons, check out…
Rentslicer.comFor sales comparisons, check out…
http://www.homepages.com/ParticipantI can say that I wouldn’t buy my apartment… not now, no way. San Diego (and especially the La Jolla / UTC area) has very high rents, too. But I’m convinced now would be a terrible time to buy a condo here. Just my opinion, though. I’m sure you’ll get many more.
Here is a good link from this forum…
http://piggington.com/about_utc_condo_conversions
But do yourself a favor and do some searches on this site (upper-right corner) about condo conversions, rent versus buy, etc. You’ll be glad you did… whatever decision you make.
ParticipantIs it INTENDED on being converted, or has it been actually announced and they are proceeding? The reason why I ask, is because I live in an apartment that has been “warning” us for the past two years that it is filing the plans to go condo. Recently (I believe in early 2006) the City of SD approved the project. However, they have not provided us with an official 180 days notice because they aren’t even sure that they want to proceed with the conversion.
Note, this apartment is in UTC, and you can read this website regarding all the failed condo conversions that are happening. I think they saw this and decided to remain as an apartment for now. They now have the right to move forward with the project at any time.
When/if they do, they have to give us 180 days notice. That is all they owe us. If you earned VERY little money, I think they would compensate you… but I remember it being VERY little (they wouldn’t even give you the apartment if you made that little). I recall reading that renters might get more rights in the future, but there isn’t much now.
Others will probably give their two cents. This board has very knowledgeable people in it.
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