[golfproz]

Where do the out of work brokers apply for that job?

[golfproz]

Where do the out of work brokers apply for that job?

[golfproz]

Where do the out of work brokers apply for that job?

[golfproz]

That was not in SD. Back then I lived with the folks in the IE. The development was the Moreno Valley Ranch. It had a 27 hole Pete Dye course and a bazillion homes, a big lake and community clubhouse etc. The tract with the big houses right next to the little ones was right beside the lake. All those folkes bought big homes on the lake with docks in the back yard for their teeny weenie sail boats. Those homes were costing upwards of 360K (in 1990!). It was sad, at the time the development was attracting lots of fairly well off retirees that were cashing out from LA and the OC. They were buying big homes and decking them out will pools and all the toys. Then the slump hit and sales stopped. The developer sat on them for about a year then cut the price from 360K to 180K! After they dumped the last of the big houses the remaining lots sat empty for about a year and then the started building the small homes. The folks still live there and it’s actually still a fairly nice area. In the last 5 or 6 years they build another gazillion homes around there and the prices had reached the stratosphere. I expect to see a repeat of the early 90s. There are builders still trying to sell 750K tract homes there. And they are grading a HUGE development for “executive homes” that are supposedly going to be around a million dollars. HAHAHAHA is all I have to say about that. I’de put money on that development being a large graded wasteland for the next 10 years. Oh wait, they changed the name of that part of the city. It’s now going by the rather swanky name of Rancho Bellago. That’s gotta make it easier to drop a mill now that it not MoVal.

[golfproz]

That was not in SD. Back then I lived with the folks in the IE. The development was the Moreno Valley Ranch. It had a 27 hole Pete Dye course and a bazillion homes, a big lake and community clubhouse etc. The tract with the big houses right next to the little ones was right beside the lake. All those folkes bought big homes on the lake with docks in the back yard for their teeny weenie sail boats. Those homes were costing upwards of 360K (in 1990!). It was sad, at the time the development was attracting lots of fairly well off retirees that were cashing out from LA and the OC. They were buying big homes and decking them out will pools and all the toys. Then the slump hit and sales stopped. The developer sat on them for about a year then cut the price from 360K to 180K! After they dumped the last of the big houses the remaining lots sat empty for about a year and then the started building the small homes. The folks still live there and it’s actually still a fairly nice area. In the last 5 or 6 years they build another gazillion homes around there and the prices had reached the stratosphere. I expect to see a repeat of the early 90s. There are builders still trying to sell 750K tract homes there. And they are grading a HUGE development for “executive homes” that are supposedly going to be around a million dollars. HAHAHAHA is all I have to say about that. I’de put money on that development being a large graded wasteland for the next 10 years. Oh wait, they changed the name of that part of the city. It’s now going by the rather swanky name of Rancho Bellago. That’s gotta make it easier to drop a mill now that it not MoVal.

[golfproz]

That was not in SD. Back then I lived with the folks in the IE. The development was the Moreno Valley Ranch. It had a 27 hole Pete Dye course and a bazillion homes, a big lake and community clubhouse etc. The tract with the big houses right next to the little ones was right beside the lake. All those folkes bought big homes on the lake with docks in the back yard for their teeny weenie sail boats. Those homes were costing upwards of 360K (in 1990!). It was sad, at the time the development was attracting lots of fairly well off retirees that were cashing out from LA and the OC. They were buying big homes and decking them out will pools and all the toys. Then the slump hit and sales stopped. The developer sat on them for about a year then cut the price from 360K to 180K! After they dumped the last of the big houses the remaining lots sat empty for about a year and then the started building the small homes. The folks still live there and it’s actually still a fairly nice area. In the last 5 or 6 years they build another gazillion homes around there and the prices had reached the stratosphere. I expect to see a repeat of the early 90s. There are builders still trying to sell 750K tract homes there. And they are grading a HUGE development for “executive homes” that are supposedly going to be around a million dollars. HAHAHAHA is all I have to say about that. I’de put money on that development being a large graded wasteland for the next 10 years. Oh wait, they changed the name of that part of the city. It’s now going by the rather swanky name of Rancho Bellago. That’s gotta make it easier to drop a mill now that it not MoVal.

[golfproz]

Yes they can change. It happened near me in the last bust. They were building a tract of 3000sf~4000sf Mcmansion (those qualified as mansions in the late 80s). When the bust hit and those monsters stopped selling they started building 900sf~1600sf crackerboxes. There were blocks where the first few homes were big monsters and then the rest were little tiny dollhouses. Of course there were pissed off homeowners and lawsuits, but that did not stop the builder. This was in a master planned community with strict HOAs.

They also built a big condo complex in the same area and sales were so bad that after a year they ended up turning it into an apartment complex. Angry homeowners nearly strung up the city council but it did not change the outcome.

[golfproz]

Yes they can change. It happened near me in the last bust. They were building a tract of 3000sf~4000sf Mcmansion (those qualified as mansions in the late 80s). When the bust hit and those monsters stopped selling they started building 900sf~1600sf crackerboxes. There were blocks where the first few homes were big monsters and then the rest were little tiny dollhouses. Of course there were pissed off homeowners and lawsuits, but that did not stop the builder. This was in a master planned community with strict HOAs.

They also built a big condo complex in the same area and sales were so bad that after a year they ended up turning it into an apartment complex. Angry homeowners nearly strung up the city council but it did not change the outcome.

[golfproz]

Yes they can change. It happened near me in the last bust. They were building a tract of 3000sf~4000sf Mcmansion (those qualified as mansions in the late 80s). When the bust hit and those monsters stopped selling they started building 900sf~1600sf crackerboxes. There were blocks where the first few homes were big monsters and then the rest were little tiny dollhouses. Of course there were pissed off homeowners and lawsuits, but that did not stop the builder. This was in a master planned community with strict HOAs.

They also built a big condo complex in the same area and sales were so bad that after a year they ended up turning it into an apartment complex. Angry homeowners nearly strung up the city council but it did not change the outcome.

[golfproz]

There’s one fatal flaw in your friends logic. The market is not set by the people who are NOT selling there homes. It’s set by the folks that are selling. All those FBs and REOs are what’s gonna set future home values. Besides, at this point there is already enough hard data to prove he’s mistaken.

[golfproz]

There’s one fatal flaw in your friends logic. The market is not set by the people who are NOT selling there homes. It’s set by the folks that are selling. All those FBs and REOs are what’s gonna set future home values. Besides, at this point there is already enough hard data to prove he’s mistaken.

[golfproz]

There’s one fatal flaw in your friends logic. The market is not set by the people who are NOT selling there homes. It’s set by the folks that are selling. All those FBs and REOs are what’s gonna set future home values. Besides, at this point there is already enough hard data to prove he’s mistaken.

[golfproz]

The Bridgeport tract by KB in Riverside just dropped the prices by over $100K. They went from the “Low 700s” to the “high 500s”. About $120K off the smallest. That is a price drop, not incentives. The sales rep indicated they were still willing to deal….I bet! I’ve been getting direct mail junk from Beazer and Richmond both advertising special pricing and discounts.

[golfproz]

The Bridgeport tract by KB in Riverside just dropped the prices by over $100K. They went from the “Low 700s” to the “high 500s”. About $120K off the smallest. That is a price drop, not incentives. The sales rep indicated they were still willing to deal….I bet! I’ve been getting direct mail junk from Beazer and Richmond both advertising special pricing and discounts.

[golfproz]

That’s gonna be a good article when all the parts are finished. As a homeowner who bought my first place in 88 I remember the buzz and all the talk. Very similar to what’s was happening in this bubble. I watched my home soar in value it went up 40% in the first 6 months I was in it. It nearly doubled in price by 1990. Many of my neighbors refi’d and pulled out cash for cars, pools and stupid stuff like one hot young wife that just had to have a boob job.

Then slowly the market turned and I watched the foreclosures start and the for sale signs started to pop up everywhere. It took 2 or 3 years but lots of folks lost thier homes, the neighborhood went to hell and the homes went right back to the 1988 values and stayed there for several years.

This is like Dejavu, only this time I’m waiting for after the crash to buy. The big difference this time is the amount the homes have shot up. They did not go nearly as high last time (at least not in my area). I still think they will come back down to prebubble levels or close to it. But like the last time I fully expect it to take a few years to happen.

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