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May 16, 2007 at 4:01 PM in reply to: DR Horton Slashes prices $100k in Murrieta, Menifee, Wildomar and more in … #53073
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Participant“I like the idea of watching CV to get an idea when Del Mar, La Jolla and the like are (relatively) next in line (for the defecate to hit the oscillator).”
I didn’t realize that there is an assumption by sdrealtor that most folks at Piggington are PRIMARILY interested in North County Coastal. IMHO, it’s not a good assumption.
Yes, it’s true that CV is the least expensive area in NCC. So, one can say that CV is the “canary in the coal mine” for NCC.
Since this is a public forum, I think it’s important for the posters to attempt to communicate clearly & state your “not-so-obvious” assumptions.
Participant“I like the idea of watching CV to get an idea when Del Mar, La Jolla and the like are (relatively) next in line (for the defecate to hit the oscillator).”
I didn’t realize that there is an assumption by sdrealtor that most folks at Piggington are PRIMARILY interested in North County Coastal. IMHO, it’s not a good assumption.
Yes, it’s true that CV is the least expensive area in NCC. So, one can say that CV is the “canary in the coal mine” for NCC.
Since this is a public forum, I think it’s important for the posters to attempt to communicate clearly & state your “not-so-obvious” assumptions.
Participant“If this market (Carmel Valley) weakens it might a bad sign for weaker markets. If it doesnt weaken that isnt necessarily a sign that other markets wont but it would certainly provoke further questions and analysis.”
sdreator, I think you got it backward.
In a downturn, there is always a “flight for quality”. This is why Carmel Valley (solidly upper middle class) holds up so well.
It’s always the “weaker” markets that go down first. And since all markets are “connected”, eventually, the “stronger” markets will go down also.
So, when Escondido & Chula Vista weaken, it’s a bad sign for Carmel Valley. NOT the other way around. CV is NOT a bellweather.
May 16, 2007 at 10:54 AM in reply to: DR Horton Slashes prices $100k in Murrieta, Menifee, Wildomar and more in … #53025Participant“hippmatt, I felt the same thing but couldn’t have put it better. 23109 reminds me of my kids asking “are we there yet” on long car rides. Seriously 23109, we aren’t trying to be mean and we do like you but some of us have made this journey before, have seen the road signs and we aren’t there yet. Just because there is snow on the side of the road doesn’t mean we are at the slopes just yet.”
Very well said. What VC23109 is doing is typical of people who don’t have a good grasp of the real estate market.
VC23109, sorry to say this, but you need to learn more. Of course, no one knows everything about RE. But there is a certain “threshold” of knowledge/understanding. Once you reach this “threshold”, you’ll see that this correction is just beginning.
May 16, 2007 at 10:42 AM in reply to: DR Horton Slashes prices $100k in Murrieta, Menifee, Wildomar and more in … #53022Participant“i assume the average temecula person stillworks in SD (or OC) and they only came up here to Tem to get more bang for the buck. if prices fall enough, and gas prices increase enough – it really could make a difference between moving back to SD…”
I think you have it “backward”. Currently, prices in Temecula are going down faster than prices in SD. This trend will continue for the next 3 years. This means that, increasingly, more people will find it financially rewarding to buy in Temecula.
In other words:
1. The less desirable areas go down first.
2. Then, they pull the more desirable areas down with them.Of course, there is a lag/delay between 1 & 2.
Now with that said, the problems (oversupply) in Temecula are just too great that they will overwhelm any additional demand “taken” from San Diego.
Participant“The entitlement process includes all the little sundry studies, surveys, planning, environmental impact reviews, and subdivision processes”
Does the above include putting in the sewage & water ?
“This is a planned community. To even get to that point requires most of the entitlement process to be completed.”
Can you please explain why ?
“They need builders or investors to step up and take those parcels off their hands, ’cause with the current trends the carrying costs will eat them alive before the market comes back”
Does this mean that the land developers typically borrow money to finance the entitlement process ? Is it similar to the construction loans that builders use ?
Participant“It kind of depends on when the land developers purchased and whether or not they spent a lot of money in the entitlement process.”
I wonder what this means for Del Sur, since Del Sur is still in the “early” part of the entire development plan.
Can you venture a guess ?
For example:
– 70% chance that …
– 30% chance that …Does anyone know of any similar example from the last burst ?
ParticipantThe fact that the builder reduced the price & throw in free upgrades & Broker Co-Op fee tells us that they are desperate.
Stay tuned. There will be more discounts in the future phases.
Participantocrenter,
Which neighborhood (i.e. Alcala, Bridewalk …) is shown in the picture ?
When was the picture taken ?Participant“They are going to be building more phases, and extending it across the street.”
There’s an excellent chance that there will be more price cuts in the future phases. Why ?
In less desirable areas like Escondido, it’s almost a given that the builders will have to keep cutting prices to sell. Look at what’s going on in Temecula.
It’s true that Escondido is closer to San Diego. But Escondido is similar to Temecula in one area: long commute with traffic (less severe but still a problem).
ParticipantI notice a “pattern” about the posters at Piggington.
1. Those who are knowledgeable about real estate. These people generally assert that there will be a major price correction. And this correction will be slow, so patience is the key. Most importantly, these people base their outlook on their knowledge & understanding.
2. Those who don’t know much about real estate or are still in the process of learning more about RE. These people base their outlook on their “FEELING” (which is to be expected, if you don’t have the knowledge, all you have is your GUT FEELING).
Sorry to say this, Alex_angel belongs to the latter group.
Knowledge is power ! Keep studying 🙂
ParticipantUnlike home prices, rents are not subjected to speculation. Usually, incomes need to go up for rents to rise.
With that said, consider the following scenario:
There is massive foreclosures & the result is a large number of SFHs & condos (some of which are formerly appartment units) being held by the lenders. These SFHs & condos are vacant. This result in a reduction in the supply of the rental units & push rents up. How realistic is this scenario ?
Participant“It’ll be interesting to see if rents contract at the same time prices are correcting. So far they haven’t.”
Are you suggesting that there’s a decent chance that rent will contract b/c there is a surplus of SFH & condos ?
Participant“… new homes are still selling fast at these prices. Although they have come down a bit and there are more incentives thrown in …”
The builders are offering deals at the expense of the resellers. They are stealing sales from the resale market. This is not surprising.
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