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June 1, 2007 at 3:14 PM in reply to: So I pulled the trigger: My buying experience in Temecula (long story) #56009
(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant“There’s never been a better time to buy!”
Better for whom ?
From their perspective this is not a lie.Participant“There’s never been a better time to buy!”
Better for whom ?
From their perspective this is not a lie.Participant“Where are the Condo Prices FSD? Why don’t you post those as well… ”
Because everyone already knows that condos suck.
Or maybe, perhaps those zip-code specific numbers I posted to start this thread are subject to wild fluctuations and may not be representative of the market.
http://www.oceansidewentDOWN5%thenUP17%thendown7%blahblah.blahg
Participant“Where are the Condo Prices FSD? Why don’t you post those as well… ”
Because everyone already knows that condos suck.
Or maybe, perhaps those zip-code specific numbers I posted to start this thread are subject to wild fluctuations and may not be representative of the market.
http://www.oceansidewentDOWN5%thenUP17%thendown7%blahblah.blahg
ParticipantA less myopic view would imply that Carlsbad is likely down about 5-10% on average YOY.
… here’s the rest of the story …
Carlsbad 92008 +8.7% on 19 sales
Carlsbad 92009 -5.7% on 60 sales
Carlsbad 92010 -18.3% on 11 sales
Carlsbad 92011 -4.3% on 24 sales.More cherry-picked sensationalism that would have people think Carlsbad is down 18.3%
(jeeman – Those are YOY median price numbers from specific zip codes)
ParticipantA less myopic view would imply that Carlsbad is likely down about 5-10% on average YOY.
… here’s the rest of the story …
Carlsbad 92008 +8.7% on 19 sales
Carlsbad 92009 -5.7% on 60 sales
Carlsbad 92010 -18.3% on 11 sales
Carlsbad 92011 -4.3% on 24 sales.More cherry-picked sensationalism that would have people think Carlsbad is down 18.3%
(jeeman – Those are YOY median price numbers from specific zip codes)
ParticipantYou still do not understand my point.
1. Prices are down.
2. Monthly zip-code specific medians are extremely noisy.
Example: The 92010 Carlsbad zip code you selected (out of 4 zip codes) year-over year price changes for the last few months:
Oct 4.90%
Nov 7.00%
Dec -5.20%
Jan 17.60%
Feb -7.30%
Mar -2.10%
Apr -18.30%Possible interpretation
Nov – “Wow prices are still up 7%, yipee”Dec = “Man price appreciation has declined about 12%, we are crashing and burning”
Jan = “Happy Days are here again, 17% let’s mortgage to the hilt and buy a Hummer”
Feb = “RUh ROh shaggy, we’re down over 7%, a bruising 25% deceleration in the appreciation machine. No gas this month for the hummer”
Mar = ” Down 2%, Yawn”
Apr = “Oceanside is PUMMELED DOWN ALMOST 20%. Honey, pack up the HUMMER, grab the guns, it’s ARMAGEDDON time”
ParticipantYou still do not understand my point.
1. Prices are down.
2. Monthly zip-code specific medians are extremely noisy.
Example: The 92010 Carlsbad zip code you selected (out of 4 zip codes) year-over year price changes for the last few months:
Oct 4.90%
Nov 7.00%
Dec -5.20%
Jan 17.60%
Feb -7.30%
Mar -2.10%
Apr -18.30%Possible interpretation
Nov – “Wow prices are still up 7%, yipee”Dec = “Man price appreciation has declined about 12%, we are crashing and burning”
Jan = “Happy Days are here again, 17% let’s mortgage to the hilt and buy a Hummer”
Feb = “RUh ROh shaggy, we’re down over 7%, a bruising 25% deceleration in the appreciation machine. No gas this month for the hummer”
Mar = ” Down 2%, Yawn”
Apr = “Oceanside is PUMMELED DOWN ALMOST 20%. Honey, pack up the HUMMER, grab the guns, it’s ARMAGEDDON time”
ParticipantMore numbers from Dataquick SAME month …
Bay Park 92110
12 sales, Median Price UP 26.0%Carlsbad 92008
19 sales, Median Price UP 9.8%Cardiff 92007
12 sales, Median Price UP 31.6%Del Mar 92014
11 sales, Median Price UP 20.2%Ocean Beach 92107
18 sales, Median Price UP 2.5%Point Loma 92106
19 sales, Median Price UP 9.5%ParticipantMore numbers from Dataquick SAME month …
Bay Park 92110
12 sales, Median Price UP 26.0%Carlsbad 92008
19 sales, Median Price UP 9.8%Cardiff 92007
12 sales, Median Price UP 31.6%Del Mar 92014
11 sales, Median Price UP 20.2%Ocean Beach 92107
18 sales, Median Price UP 2.5%Point Loma 92106
19 sales, Median Price UP 9.5%ParticipantBoth SD Realtor and sdrealtor have posted in the past that they recommend renting in many circumstances. Neither one is bullish on home prices.
In fact, I don’t see too many bullish people on this board.
Some people may confuse others’ insistence on facts rather than sensationalism as being bullish. It is not.
In San Diego prices are off at least 10%, much more for some areas. Add two years of inflation adjustment from the late 2005 peak and that’s about 16% and more in real terms. I suspect there are areas that are off 25% already (e.g. new developments).
As for my opinion … I believe that the current cycle will result in 19-26% decline in SFR resale prices, with another 15-20% due to inflation.
I believe that you will see the bulk of the additional price drops over the years 2007-2008.Does believing that we have not yet seen 30-50% declines make me a bull ? I think not.
ParticipantBoth SD Realtor and sdrealtor have posted in the past that they recommend renting in many circumstances. Neither one is bullish on home prices.
In fact, I don’t see too many bullish people on this board.
Some people may confuse others’ insistence on facts rather than sensationalism as being bullish. It is not.
In San Diego prices are off at least 10%, much more for some areas. Add two years of inflation adjustment from the late 2005 peak and that’s about 16% and more in real terms. I suspect there are areas that are off 25% already (e.g. new developments).
As for my opinion … I believe that the current cycle will result in 19-26% decline in SFR resale prices, with another 15-20% due to inflation.
I believe that you will see the bulk of the additional price drops over the years 2007-2008.Does believing that we have not yet seen 30-50% declines make me a bull ? I think not.
ParticipantSan Diego Numbers could be due out this Sunday in the LA Times.
Any guesses on the results?
Here’s my guess
[img_assist|nid=3548|title=SD April zip code prices – DQ News LA Times Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=274|height=500]
ParticipantSan Diego Numbers could be due out this Sunday in the LA Times.
Any guesses on the results?
Here’s my guess
[img_assist|nid=3548|title=SD April zip code prices – DQ News LA Times Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=274|height=500]
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