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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participantseattle-relo –
The past couple of years has seen a lot of domestic outmigration from California and from San Diego in particular.
What brings you to San Diego ?ParticipantIf the Andrew Cunanan example implies that religious schools produce sociopaths, then here’s one that illustrates that Harvard may be even more effective at it …
Ted Kaczynski was Harvard educated. As a child he attended public school and was promoted past a couple grades (once in elementary and once in high school).What a great thread …
from the May show dropping …
to private vs public education …
to religion …
to molestation …
to sociopaths.This one has it all.
ParticipantIf the Andrew Cunanan example implies that religious schools produce sociopaths, then here’s one that illustrates that Harvard may be even more effective at it …
Ted Kaczynski was Harvard educated. As a child he attended public school and was promoted past a couple grades (once in elementary and once in high school).What a great thread …
from the May show dropping …
to private vs public education …
to religion …
to molestation …
to sociopaths.This one has it all.
ParticipantI believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.
ParticipantI believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.
Participantlatesummer2008
I hope that my points on data variability and the reliability of monthly zip code stats is not lost by my sarcasm. All of my points, (including pointing you to the DQnews site so that you can get the various monthly number by county before opening your weekend LA Times), was intended to improve the reporting on this site.
If there is too much chicken little “prices have already dropped 50%” reporting here, the people will simply ignore it the next month when prices are much different in that same zip code. Perspective is important.
In late 2005 and early 2006 on this board, there was much slicing and dicing of articles and reports of continued median price increases because they didn’t reflect what was actually going on in the market. Over-exaggerating what is CURRENTLY going on to the down side is also dangerous. That is why some, like me, insist on avoiding exaggeration.
There is no doubt that the RE market is tanking and that prices are dropping. I would also agree that LS 2008 might be the earliest potential re-entry point (for SD, I think LA will be later)One more thing …
You typed:
“I realize anyone is free to add their opinion, but when I am personally attacked, I am not going to just sit here. Sure you can challenge what I say, but don’t challenge me personally. That is infantile.”I am sorry if you took offense, but all of my posts were directed at your points and not you. Having said that, I hope you still don’t think that I am “stupid” and “a friggin’ idiot”.
Participantlatesummer2008
I hope that my points on data variability and the reliability of monthly zip code stats is not lost by my sarcasm. All of my points, (including pointing you to the DQnews site so that you can get the various monthly number by county before opening your weekend LA Times), was intended to improve the reporting on this site.
If there is too much chicken little “prices have already dropped 50%” reporting here, the people will simply ignore it the next month when prices are much different in that same zip code. Perspective is important.
In late 2005 and early 2006 on this board, there was much slicing and dicing of articles and reports of continued median price increases because they didn’t reflect what was actually going on in the market. Over-exaggerating what is CURRENTLY going on to the down side is also dangerous. That is why some, like me, insist on avoiding exaggeration.
There is no doubt that the RE market is tanking and that prices are dropping. I would also agree that LS 2008 might be the earliest potential re-entry point (for SD, I think LA will be later)One more thing …
You typed:
“I realize anyone is free to add their opinion, but when I am personally attacked, I am not going to just sit here. Sure you can challenge what I say, but don’t challenge me personally. That is infantile.”I am sorry if you took offense, but all of my posts were directed at your points and not you. Having said that, I hope you still don’t think that I am “stupid” and “a friggin’ idiot”.
ParticipantBugs –
I couldn’t agree with you more.
And I suppose the Condo Market has nothing to do with the SFR market?
You still do not understand my point.
1. Prices are down, and will likely continue downward.
2. Monthly zip-code specific medians are extremely noisy.
I believe that you have mistaken my insistence on precision as me being a housing bull.
ParticipantBugs –
I couldn’t agree with you more.
And I suppose the Condo Market has nothing to do with the SFR market?
You still do not understand my point.
1. Prices are down, and will likely continue downward.
2. Monthly zip-code specific medians are extremely noisy.
I believe that you have mistaken my insistence on precision as me being a housing bull.
ParticipantCy, you can add jg to the list… FormerSanDiegan will be next….mark my words. However, there are some great folks on here too. Just finding out who’s who, I guess.
What list is this ?
Political views aside, jg has provided some of the better data analysis on this board and even won some bets predicting the current 1Q 2007 GDP weakness. He’s an unabashed housing bear, and very adept at analyzing data.
ParticipantCy, you can add jg to the list… FormerSanDiegan will be next….mark my words. However, there are some great folks on here too. Just finding out who’s who, I guess.
What list is this ?
Political views aside, jg has provided some of the better data analysis on this board and even won some bets predicting the current 1Q 2007 GDP weakness. He’s an unabashed housing bear, and very adept at analyzing data.
ParticipantThe above post is spam.
I tried a quick search for San Diego and Los Angeles with zero hits. I tried an advanced search, which was under construction. I can’t imagine anyone on this board recommending such a crappy web site.
ParticipantThe above post is spam.
I tried a quick search for San Diego and Los Angeles with zero hits. I tried an advanced search, which was under construction. I can’t imagine anyone on this board recommending such a crappy web site.
June 1, 2007 at 3:14 PM in reply to: So I pulled the trigger: My buying experience in Temecula (long story) #55990ParticipantAmazing deal. If someone gave you that lot, it would be tough for an independent builder to build a house for $115/sf. (If you acted as your own builder and valued your time at $0, you might do better). Seems that the retail price of dirt in Temecula is about zero.
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