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(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantDid Bush drop his shoe ? Was the dropping of his shoe caused by global warming ? Was the fetus who would grow to be the woman who was going to invent the ideal clean and renewable energy source and avert global catastrophy aborted prior to birth ?
Who cares ?
This thread started in the RE portion of the site. We should start another off-topic thread if you want to debate politics, religion and moral issues.ParticipantIt looks like prices have always stayed above the 6% line. If we come back down to that line, we are looking at a 30% haircut.
That depends how long it takes. In 2010, the 6% line is about 35% below the peak. By 2015, it is still about 10% below the peak.
ParticipantIt looks like prices have always stayed above the 6% line. If we come back down to that line, we are looking at a 30% haircut.
That depends how long it takes. In 2010, the 6% line is about 35% below the peak. By 2015, it is still about 10% below the peak.
Participantseattle-relo
San Diego home price history reveals that it is almost never normal. The “normal” price appears to be a fleeting moment between the booms and busts. For example, the peak prices in ~ 1990-1991 were not revisited until about 1998 or so.
That said, I tried a little data exercise, where I fit a growth curve to the bottom of the market in 1996 with an initial start in 1976 (first year I found data). The average annual growth from 1976 to 1996, which covers two prior real estate cycles was a smidge over 6% This fit tracks below the actual prices for the entire period I am plotting, so I consider it a fairly conservative (worst case ?) estimate. This would imply that mid 2007 prices would be about 350K, assuming 6% growth, and 400K by 2010.
For kicks I also tried a 7% growth rate.
These are not intended to be representative of future growth. It is simply an exercise in comparing prices to theoretical growth rates.
[img_assist|nid=3589|title=Median Price Growth – San Diego|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=349]
Participantseattle-relo
San Diego home price history reveals that it is almost never normal. The “normal” price appears to be a fleeting moment between the booms and busts. For example, the peak prices in ~ 1990-1991 were not revisited until about 1998 or so.
That said, I tried a little data exercise, where I fit a growth curve to the bottom of the market in 1996 with an initial start in 1976 (first year I found data). The average annual growth from 1976 to 1996, which covers two prior real estate cycles was a smidge over 6% This fit tracks below the actual prices for the entire period I am plotting, so I consider it a fairly conservative (worst case ?) estimate. This would imply that mid 2007 prices would be about 350K, assuming 6% growth, and 400K by 2010.
For kicks I also tried a 7% growth rate.
These are not intended to be representative of future growth. It is simply an exercise in comparing prices to theoretical growth rates.
[img_assist|nid=3589|title=Median Price Growth – San Diego|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=349]
ParticipantThe median may drop as well, but is incidental, as the numbers can be skewed.
At least we have made progress on that front.
ls2008 –
Since you are on the westside, can you comment on what’s going on in Westwood. I have some friends who moved from the UK last year and are looking for a place to live. The market there still seems to be fairly hot. There is minimal SFR inventory to speak of in the < 2 Mil range in Westwood. Any SFR in the 1.0-1.4 Mil range seems to have disappeared over the last couple months.ParticipantThe median may drop as well, but is incidental, as the numbers can be skewed.
At least we have made progress on that front.
ls2008 –
Since you are on the westside, can you comment on what’s going on in Westwood. I have some friends who moved from the UK last year and are looking for a place to live. The market there still seems to be fairly hot. There is minimal SFR inventory to speak of in the < 2 Mil range in Westwood. Any SFR in the 1.0-1.4 Mil range seems to have disappeared over the last couple months.ParticipantPerhaps the builders think that the resale market is a bit stronger than the new home market ?
ParticipantPerhaps the builders think that the resale market is a bit stronger than the new home market ?
ParticipantParticipantParticipantI dont think this market was ever affordable. When I bought my first home here very close to the bottom of the current cycle for around 200K, I felt like I had paid nearly 2X what I should have based upon from where I came. I didn’t come from Kansas either.
That’s funny, I had a similar experience, but I did come from Kansas.
ParticipantI dont think this market was ever affordable. When I bought my first home here very close to the bottom of the current cycle for around 200K, I felt like I had paid nearly 2X what I should have based upon from where I came. I didn’t come from Kansas either.
That’s funny, I had a similar experience, but I did come from Kansas.
ParticipantThat’s funny. As a 40-year old I see this as an opportunity. If we are lucky we will be over 55 some day and can take advantage of this entitlement. Furthermore, we can plan to buy on the cheap within the next few years and lock-in low property taxes for life. The glass is half-full, don’t spill it.
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