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(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant*An engineer will be standing at the finish line with a slide rule and will carefully measure the slide of prices against inflation. He will raise a checkered flag and tell everyone when the bottom is reached by using a formula.
I agree with your (sarcastic, but well-put) point here.
We can’t really precisely identify a future price. There are too many variables, as well as time lags in data, and the wild card of buyer psychology.However, that is no excuse for being sloppy. Thanks to Rich, this site has always attracted a fair number of analytical types. After all the motto at the bottom of the page is “In God We Trust. All Others Bring Data.” Although, my bet is that if God did log in with some comments, some people (including me) would probably call bull$h!t on it and ask him to back it up with some facts.
But I digress …I’m not saying prices won’t revert to 1998 levels. My point is that if someone is going to throw out a number, a date or a price level, they should know what that implies.
ParticipantMy point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.
I am not the one that put out there that prices may fall to 1998 levels, even without accounting for inflation, not me.
My point was to point out in stark terms exactly what your statement means. 1998 prices = 1991 prices. Even at historically low levels of inflation, over that period of time inflation matters and is significant. Back then a gallon of milk was about $1.25. It’s basically the same gallon of milk, so why is milk $3.50 a gallon (or more) today. Milk is not more desireable today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. I know that everybody wants to buy some, but still, it’s the same milk.
Inflation happens.
ParticipantMy point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.
I am not the one that put out there that prices may fall to 1998 levels, even without accounting for inflation, not me.
My point was to point out in stark terms exactly what your statement means. 1998 prices = 1991 prices. Even at historically low levels of inflation, over that period of time inflation matters and is significant. Back then a gallon of milk was about $1.25. It’s basically the same gallon of milk, so why is milk $3.50 a gallon (or more) today. Milk is not more desireable today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. I know that everybody wants to buy some, but still, it’s the same milk.
Inflation happens.
ParticipantMy point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.
I am not the one that put out there that prices may fall to 1998 levels, even without accounting for inflation, not me.
My point was to point out in stark terms exactly what your statement means. 1998 prices = 1991 prices. Even at historically low levels of inflation, over that period of time inflation matters and is significant. Back then a gallon of milk was about $1.25. It’s basically the same gallon of milk, so why is milk $3.50 a gallon (or more) today. Milk is not more desireable today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. I know that everybody wants to buy some, but still, it’s the same milk.
Inflation happens.
ParticipantMy point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.
I am not the one that put out there that prices may fall to 1998 levels, even without accounting for inflation, not me.
My point was to point out in stark terms exactly what your statement means. 1998 prices = 1991 prices. Even at historically low levels of inflation, over that period of time inflation matters and is significant. Back then a gallon of milk was about $1.25. It’s basically the same gallon of milk, so why is milk $3.50 a gallon (or more) today. Milk is not more desireable today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. I know that everybody wants to buy some, but still, it’s the same milk.
Inflation happens.
ParticipantMy point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.
I am not the one that put out there that prices may fall to 1998 levels, even without accounting for inflation, not me.
My point was to point out in stark terms exactly what your statement means. 1998 prices = 1991 prices. Even at historically low levels of inflation, over that period of time inflation matters and is significant. Back then a gallon of milk was about $1.25. It’s basically the same gallon of milk, so why is milk $3.50 a gallon (or more) today. Milk is not more desireable today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. I know that everybody wants to buy some, but still, it’s the same milk.
Inflation happens.
Participantwe may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation.
I don’t know if you realize this, but 1998 prices were at about the same level as 1990 prices (ignoring inflation).
So, what you are suggesting is that prices will revert to ~1990 levels without accounting for inflation.As a point of reference, median rent in San Diego county was $564 in 1990 (Census Bureau), Median household income was about $35K, A gallon of gas was about $1.20. (Geez, I am starting to sound like my Dad). And we had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow.
OK, maybe not that last thing, but I think I’ve made my point.
Participantwe may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation.
I don’t know if you realize this, but 1998 prices were at about the same level as 1990 prices (ignoring inflation).
So, what you are suggesting is that prices will revert to ~1990 levels without accounting for inflation.As a point of reference, median rent in San Diego county was $564 in 1990 (Census Bureau), Median household income was about $35K, A gallon of gas was about $1.20. (Geez, I am starting to sound like my Dad). And we had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow.
OK, maybe not that last thing, but I think I’ve made my point.
Participantwe may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation.
I don’t know if you realize this, but 1998 prices were at about the same level as 1990 prices (ignoring inflation).
So, what you are suggesting is that prices will revert to ~1990 levels without accounting for inflation.As a point of reference, median rent in San Diego county was $564 in 1990 (Census Bureau), Median household income was about $35K, A gallon of gas was about $1.20. (Geez, I am starting to sound like my Dad). And we had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow.
OK, maybe not that last thing, but I think I’ve made my point.
Participantwe may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation.
I don’t know if you realize this, but 1998 prices were at about the same level as 1990 prices (ignoring inflation).
So, what you are suggesting is that prices will revert to ~1990 levels without accounting for inflation.As a point of reference, median rent in San Diego county was $564 in 1990 (Census Bureau), Median household income was about $35K, A gallon of gas was about $1.20. (Geez, I am starting to sound like my Dad). And we had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow.
OK, maybe not that last thing, but I think I’ve made my point.
Participantwe may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation.
I don’t know if you realize this, but 1998 prices were at about the same level as 1990 prices (ignoring inflation).
So, what you are suggesting is that prices will revert to ~1990 levels without accounting for inflation.As a point of reference, median rent in San Diego county was $564 in 1990 (Census Bureau), Median household income was about $35K, A gallon of gas was about $1.20. (Geez, I am starting to sound like my Dad). And we had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow.
OK, maybe not that last thing, but I think I’ve made my point.
April 21, 2008 at 1:32 PM in reply to: Interest Rate Time Bomb???? When will they have to rise? #191538ParticipantSubmitted by asianautica on April 21, 2008 – 10:14am.
I also realize that higher rates keep home prices low and you have the added bonus of lower property taxes.
I don’t know if you’ve read one of the post about this a few weeks back, but property tax will be what the last owner paid if that was higher, until you get them to reassessed. So the property tax argument is moot.
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For those keeping score, based on the info from the Tax assessors office above, I guess that makes AN’s point moot. Therefore the previously moot point of “added bonus of lower property taxes” is now un-moot (i.e. valid).
April 21, 2008 at 1:32 PM in reply to: Interest Rate Time Bomb???? When will they have to rise? #191566ParticipantSubmitted by asianautica on April 21, 2008 – 10:14am.
I also realize that higher rates keep home prices low and you have the added bonus of lower property taxes.
I don’t know if you’ve read one of the post about this a few weeks back, but property tax will be what the last owner paid if that was higher, until you get them to reassessed. So the property tax argument is moot.
– – – – – – –
For those keeping score, based on the info from the Tax assessors office above, I guess that makes AN’s point moot. Therefore the previously moot point of “added bonus of lower property taxes” is now un-moot (i.e. valid).
April 21, 2008 at 1:32 PM in reply to: Interest Rate Time Bomb???? When will they have to rise? #191596ParticipantSubmitted by asianautica on April 21, 2008 – 10:14am.
I also realize that higher rates keep home prices low and you have the added bonus of lower property taxes.
I don’t know if you’ve read one of the post about this a few weeks back, but property tax will be what the last owner paid if that was higher, until you get them to reassessed. So the property tax argument is moot.
– – – – – – –
For those keeping score, based on the info from the Tax assessors office above, I guess that makes AN’s point moot. Therefore the previously moot point of “added bonus of lower property taxes” is now un-moot (i.e. valid).
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