Magic Ball Needed

[sdrealtor]

WP,
We share the same hopes and dreams in life. We live the same lifestyle also. The open houses in LCV this weekend werent the best floorplans. I have original floorplans for every builder in my office. What you describe exists in a few neighborhoods there.

As for the schools, sure OPE has some snobbish folks but there are plenty of down to earth families there also. They used to have a real superiority cvomplex at that school because of test scores which were high because there is no multi-family housing in olivenhain which would tend to lower the average scores. With the building of LCV and LCO, Mission Estancia and ECC got the same favorable demographics and have been beating them since. With that said, OPE is a great school and some of my best friends have children there.

LCV has its share of stepford wives and some uppity folks but for the most part is pretty down to earth. Keep in mind that when built in 1999, many of these homes sold at or below $400,000. The community is still full of teachers, firefighters, forest rangers, small business owners, professional salesguys, engineers and regular old techies. The uppity folks tend to live in the higher end neighborhoods and/or are not original owners. There are still tons of orignal owners there with plans to stay until their rugrats graduate high school/college.

If you want, you can email me personal questions at [email protected]. Its a separate email I set up a while back for anonymous conversations. I dont check it often, so let me know you sent something here and I will be sure to respond.

[Anonymous]

It comments like Ex-SD’s about prices reaching 1998 levels that make me tear my hair out. Where will this occur? In every area of SD county? So the house that I’m renting for $4000/month in Encinitas will only cost $400,000 in a few years even though the rent will run up to $5,000/month? Wow, do you think someone might want to buy that as an investment seeing as how it would cash flow like the greatest dividend paying stock in the history of the world? Or are you saying rents are going to go down as well? Are you calling for housing deflation while everything else in the universe is inflating like crazy? Here are the facts:

– Rents for single family homes are increasing not decreasing because there are more renters and that is bringing the rent/buy spread tighter and tighter. The spread increased rapidly (making renting much cheaper) from 2003 – 2005 as interest rates plummeted and loan origination standards weakened thus inflating housing. (who wouldn’t want to buy when you didn’t need any money down or even decent credit?) As more renters clamor for fewer available homes the rental rates are inflating.

– Foreclosures are not equally spread throughout the county. They are clustered in areas that are shall we say subprime in terms of both their location and their constituency. The vast majority of “bubble buyers” without stayng power who qualified when they shouldn’t have been able to and the speculators will be washed out of the market through foreclosure or forced sale within 12 months. That’s not to say there won’t be more foreclosures but it is to say they will return to more historical norms.

– Both the run up in prices and the quick retreat are unprecedented in terms of how quick they both occurred. Those predicting this downward cycle lasting for another 5 years or whatever are wrong in my opinion. I believe many areas will hit bottom this winter and you’ll see a more normal market developing where you’ll see +/- 2-3% per year in 2010 and beyond.

My lease is up later this year and I’m beginning to look for a home I can live in for the next 15 years. My advice is to not compromise on location or floorplan particularly location because you can change a floorplan over time. I highly doubt I’ll find a foreclosure, but I’d break my lease today if an unusual deal came up. I have a 30-40% downpayment on a $1.0mm – $1.3mm range house and I’m waiting for the right location to come up. I’d also suggest to Waiting Patiently to walk the neighborhoods you are considering. See what they are like on the 4th of July, Halloween, Xmas, or just a regular school day. You get a feel for how old the owners are, how old their kids are, etc. I found the dream house on the street I wanted last year, but didn’t pull the trigger because I had been reading sites like this. Did I save myself $100k or so? No, because an inferior home on that same street just sold for $50k over the better house. I kick myself for that daily. A home is more than a financial decision like an emotionless stock. It’s where you are going to raise a family and hopefully create lasting memories. Find a house you love and can afford to stay in for the next 20 years. Period. You’ll look back and wonder why you ever hesitated.

[Anonymous]

It comments like Ex-SD’s about prices reaching 1998 levels that make me tear my hair out. Where will this occur? In every area of SD county? So the house that I’m renting for $4000/month in Encinitas will only cost $400,000 in a few years even though the rent will run up to $5,000/month? Wow, do you think someone might want to buy that as an investment seeing as how it would cash flow like the greatest dividend paying stock in the history of the world? Or are you saying rents are going to go down as well? Are you calling for housing deflation while everything else in the universe is inflating like crazy? Here are the facts:

– Rents for single family homes are increasing not decreasing because there are more renters and that is bringing the rent/buy spread tighter and tighter. The spread increased rapidly (making renting much cheaper) from 2003 – 2005 as interest rates plummeted and loan origination standards weakened thus inflating housing. (who wouldn’t want to buy when you didn’t need any money down or even decent credit?) As more renters clamor for fewer available homes the rental rates are inflating.

– Foreclosures are not equally spread throughout the county. They are clustered in areas that are shall we say subprime in terms of both their location and their constituency. The vast majority of “bubble buyers” without stayng power who qualified when they shouldn’t have been able to and the speculators will be washed out of the market through foreclosure or forced sale within 12 months. That’s not to say there won’t be more foreclosures but it is to say they will return to more historical norms.

– Both the run up in prices and the quick retreat are unprecedented in terms of how quick they both occurred. Those predicting this downward cycle lasting for another 5 years or whatever are wrong in my opinion. I believe many areas will hit bottom this winter and you’ll see a more normal market developing where you’ll see +/- 2-3% per year in 2010 and beyond.

My lease is up later this year and I’m beginning to look for a home I can live in for the next 15 years. My advice is to not compromise on location or floorplan particularly location because you can change a floorplan over time. I highly doubt I’ll find a foreclosure, but I’d break my lease today if an unusual deal came up. I have a 30-40% downpayment on a $1.0mm – $1.3mm range house and I’m waiting for the right location to come up. I’d also suggest to Waiting Patiently to walk the neighborhoods you are considering. See what they are like on the 4th of July, Halloween, Xmas, or just a regular school day. You get a feel for how old the owners are, how old their kids are, etc. I found the dream house on the street I wanted last year, but didn’t pull the trigger because I had been reading sites like this. Did I save myself $100k or so? No, because an inferior home on that same street just sold for $50k over the better house. I kick myself for that daily. A home is more than a financial decision like an emotionless stock. It’s where you are going to raise a family and hopefully create lasting memories. Find a house you love and can afford to stay in for the next 20 years. Period. You’ll look back and wonder why you ever hesitated.

[Anonymous]

It comments like Ex-SD’s about prices reaching 1998 levels that make me tear my hair out. Where will this occur? In every area of SD county? So the house that I’m renting for $4000/month in Encinitas will only cost $400,000 in a few years even though the rent will run up to $5,000/month? Wow, do you think someone might want to buy that as an investment seeing as how it would cash flow like the greatest dividend paying stock in the history of the world? Or are you saying rents are going to go down as well? Are you calling for housing deflation while everything else in the universe is inflating like crazy? Here are the facts:

– Rents for single family homes are increasing not decreasing because there are more renters and that is bringing the rent/buy spread tighter and tighter. The spread increased rapidly (making renting much cheaper) from 2003 – 2005 as interest rates plummeted and loan origination standards weakened thus inflating housing. (who wouldn’t want to buy when you didn’t need any money down or even decent credit?) As more renters clamor for fewer available homes the rental rates are inflating.

– Foreclosures are not equally spread throughout the county. They are clustered in areas that are shall we say subprime in terms of both their location and their constituency. The vast majority of “bubble buyers” without stayng power who qualified when they shouldn’t have been able to and the speculators will be washed out of the market through foreclosure or forced sale within 12 months. That’s not to say there won’t be more foreclosures but it is to say they will return to more historical norms.

– Both the run up in prices and the quick retreat are unprecedented in terms of how quick they both occurred. Those predicting this downward cycle lasting for another 5 years or whatever are wrong in my opinion. I believe many areas will hit bottom this winter and you’ll see a more normal market developing where you’ll see +/- 2-3% per year in 2010 and beyond.

My lease is up later this year and I’m beginning to look for a home I can live in for the next 15 years. My advice is to not compromise on location or floorplan particularly location because you can change a floorplan over time. I highly doubt I’ll find a foreclosure, but I’d break my lease today if an unusual deal came up. I have a 30-40% downpayment on a $1.0mm – $1.3mm range house and I’m waiting for the right location to come up. I’d also suggest to Waiting Patiently to walk the neighborhoods you are considering. See what they are like on the 4th of July, Halloween, Xmas, or just a regular school day. You get a feel for how old the owners are, how old their kids are, etc. I found the dream house on the street I wanted last year, but didn’t pull the trigger because I had been reading sites like this. Did I save myself $100k or so? No, because an inferior home on that same street just sold for $50k over the better house. I kick myself for that daily. A home is more than a financial decision like an emotionless stock. It’s where you are going to raise a family and hopefully create lasting memories. Find a house you love and can afford to stay in for the next 20 years. Period. You’ll look back and wonder why you ever hesitated.

[Anonymous]

It comments like Ex-SD’s about prices reaching 1998 levels that make me tear my hair out. Where will this occur? In every area of SD county? So the house that I’m renting for $4000/month in Encinitas will only cost $400,000 in a few years even though the rent will run up to $5,000/month? Wow, do you think someone might want to buy that as an investment seeing as how it would cash flow like the greatest dividend paying stock in the history of the world? Or are you saying rents are going to go down as well? Are you calling for housing deflation while everything else in the universe is inflating like crazy? Here are the facts:

– Rents for single family homes are increasing not decreasing because there are more renters and that is bringing the rent/buy spread tighter and tighter. The spread increased rapidly (making renting much cheaper) from 2003 – 2005 as interest rates plummeted and loan origination standards weakened thus inflating housing. (who wouldn’t want to buy when you didn’t need any money down or even decent credit?) As more renters clamor for fewer available homes the rental rates are inflating.

– Foreclosures are not equally spread throughout the county. They are clustered in areas that are shall we say subprime in terms of both their location and their constituency. The vast majority of “bubble buyers” without stayng power who qualified when they shouldn’t have been able to and the speculators will be washed out of the market through foreclosure or forced sale within 12 months. That’s not to say there won’t be more foreclosures but it is to say they will return to more historical norms.

– Both the run up in prices and the quick retreat are unprecedented in terms of how quick they both occurred. Those predicting this downward cycle lasting for another 5 years or whatever are wrong in my opinion. I believe many areas will hit bottom this winter and you’ll see a more normal market developing where you’ll see +/- 2-3% per year in 2010 and beyond.

My lease is up later this year and I’m beginning to look for a home I can live in for the next 15 years. My advice is to not compromise on location or floorplan particularly location because you can change a floorplan over time. I highly doubt I’ll find a foreclosure, but I’d break my lease today if an unusual deal came up. I have a 30-40% downpayment on a $1.0mm – $1.3mm range house and I’m waiting for the right location to come up. I’d also suggest to Waiting Patiently to walk the neighborhoods you are considering. See what they are like on the 4th of July, Halloween, Xmas, or just a regular school day. You get a feel for how old the owners are, how old their kids are, etc. I found the dream house on the street I wanted last year, but didn’t pull the trigger because I had been reading sites like this. Did I save myself $100k or so? No, because an inferior home on that same street just sold for $50k over the better house. I kick myself for that daily. A home is more than a financial decision like an emotionless stock. It’s where you are going to raise a family and hopefully create lasting memories. Find a house you love and can afford to stay in for the next 20 years. Period. You’ll look back and wonder why you ever hesitated.

[Anonymous]

It comments like Ex-SD’s about prices reaching 1998 levels that make me tear my hair out. Where will this occur? In every area of SD county? So the house that I’m renting for $4000/month in Encinitas will only cost $400,000 in a few years even though the rent will run up to $5,000/month? Wow, do you think someone might want to buy that as an investment seeing as how it would cash flow like the greatest dividend paying stock in the history of the world? Or are you saying rents are going to go down as well? Are you calling for housing deflation while everything else in the universe is inflating like crazy? Here are the facts:

– Rents for single family homes are increasing not decreasing because there are more renters and that is bringing the rent/buy spread tighter and tighter. The spread increased rapidly (making renting much cheaper) from 2003 – 2005 as interest rates plummeted and loan origination standards weakened thus inflating housing. (who wouldn’t want to buy when you didn’t need any money down or even decent credit?) As more renters clamor for fewer available homes the rental rates are inflating.

– Foreclosures are not equally spread throughout the county. They are clustered in areas that are shall we say subprime in terms of both their location and their constituency. The vast majority of “bubble buyers” without stayng power who qualified when they shouldn’t have been able to and the speculators will be washed out of the market through foreclosure or forced sale within 12 months. That’s not to say there won’t be more foreclosures but it is to say they will return to more historical norms.

– Both the run up in prices and the quick retreat are unprecedented in terms of how quick they both occurred. Those predicting this downward cycle lasting for another 5 years or whatever are wrong in my opinion. I believe many areas will hit bottom this winter and you’ll see a more normal market developing where you’ll see +/- 2-3% per year in 2010 and beyond.

My lease is up later this year and I’m beginning to look for a home I can live in for the next 15 years. My advice is to not compromise on location or floorplan particularly location because you can change a floorplan over time. I highly doubt I’ll find a foreclosure, but I’d break my lease today if an unusual deal came up. I have a 30-40% downpayment on a $1.0mm – $1.3mm range house and I’m waiting for the right location to come up. I’d also suggest to Waiting Patiently to walk the neighborhoods you are considering. See what they are like on the 4th of July, Halloween, Xmas, or just a regular school day. You get a feel for how old the owners are, how old their kids are, etc. I found the dream house on the street I wanted last year, but didn’t pull the trigger because I had been reading sites like this. Did I save myself $100k or so? No, because an inferior home on that same street just sold for $50k over the better house. I kick myself for that daily. A home is more than a financial decision like an emotionless stock. It’s where you are going to raise a family and hopefully create lasting memories. Find a house you love and can afford to stay in for the next 20 years. Period. You’ll look back and wonder why you ever hesitated.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

we may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation.

I don’t know if you realize this, but 1998 prices were at about the same level as 1990 prices (ignoring inflation).
So, what you are suggesting is that prices will revert to ~1990 levels without accounting for inflation.

As a point of reference, median rent in San Diego county was $564 in 1990 (Census Bureau), Median household income was about $35K, A gallon of gas was about $1.20. (Geez, I am starting to sound like my Dad). And we had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow.

OK, maybe not that last thing, but I think I’ve made my point.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

we may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation.

I don’t know if you realize this, but 1998 prices were at about the same level as 1990 prices (ignoring inflation).
So, what you are suggesting is that prices will revert to ~1990 levels without accounting for inflation.

As a point of reference, median rent in San Diego county was $564 in 1990 (Census Bureau), Median household income was about $35K, A gallon of gas was about $1.20. (Geez, I am starting to sound like my Dad). And we had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow.

OK, maybe not that last thing, but I think I’ve made my point.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

we may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation.

I don’t know if you realize this, but 1998 prices were at about the same level as 1990 prices (ignoring inflation).
So, what you are suggesting is that prices will revert to ~1990 levels without accounting for inflation.

As a point of reference, median rent in San Diego county was $564 in 1990 (Census Bureau), Median household income was about $35K, A gallon of gas was about $1.20. (Geez, I am starting to sound like my Dad). And we had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow.

OK, maybe not that last thing, but I think I’ve made my point.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

we may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation.

I don’t know if you realize this, but 1998 prices were at about the same level as 1990 prices (ignoring inflation).
So, what you are suggesting is that prices will revert to ~1990 levels without accounting for inflation.

As a point of reference, median rent in San Diego county was $564 in 1990 (Census Bureau), Median household income was about $35K, A gallon of gas was about $1.20. (Geez, I am starting to sound like my Dad). And we had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow.

OK, maybe not that last thing, but I think I’ve made my point.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

we may be looking at 1998 prices before the bottom is found. And I don’t meant 1998 plus any allowance for inflation.

I don’t know if you realize this, but 1998 prices were at about the same level as 1990 prices (ignoring inflation).
So, what you are suggesting is that prices will revert to ~1990 levels without accounting for inflation.

As a point of reference, median rent in San Diego county was $564 in 1990 (Census Bureau), Median household income was about $35K, A gallon of gas was about $1.20. (Geez, I am starting to sound like my Dad). And we had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow.

OK, maybe not that last thing, but I think I’ve made my point.

[Ex-SD]

Yeah…………….And……………..
*The Great Depression never happened
*An engineer will be standing at the finish line with a slide rule and will carefully measure the slide of prices against inflation. He will raise a checkered flag and tell everyone when the bottom is reached by using a formula.

My point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.

Have you taken a hard look at the Temecula area lately? You realize that is only a short ride up Hwy 15 from San Diego, don’t you? Think that won’t or can’t happen just down the road?

We have never seen a mess like this since the Great Depression. The job losses are just starting and there’s a gazillion foreclosed homes on the market (plus a lot more coming over the next few years). You can poke fun of the uber-bears who think that this is going to be a real tsunami but let’s just all agree to come back here in four years, take a look at the housing market in SoCal and see “who’s the doofus.”

[Ex-SD]

Yeah…………….And……………..
*The Great Depression never happened
*An engineer will be standing at the finish line with a slide rule and will carefully measure the slide of prices against inflation. He will raise a checkered flag and tell everyone when the bottom is reached by using a formula.

My point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.

Have you taken a hard look at the Temecula area lately? You realize that is only a short ride up Hwy 15 from San Diego, don’t you? Think that won’t or can’t happen just down the road?

We have never seen a mess like this since the Great Depression. The job losses are just starting and there’s a gazillion foreclosed homes on the market (plus a lot more coming over the next few years). You can poke fun of the uber-bears who think that this is going to be a real tsunami but let’s just all agree to come back here in four years, take a look at the housing market in SoCal and see “who’s the doofus.”

[Ex-SD]

Yeah…………….And……………..
*The Great Depression never happened
*An engineer will be standing at the finish line with a slide rule and will carefully measure the slide of prices against inflation. He will raise a checkered flag and tell everyone when the bottom is reached by using a formula.

My point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.

Have you taken a hard look at the Temecula area lately? You realize that is only a short ride up Hwy 15 from San Diego, don’t you? Think that won’t or can’t happen just down the road?

We have never seen a mess like this since the Great Depression. The job losses are just starting and there’s a gazillion foreclosed homes on the market (plus a lot more coming over the next few years). You can poke fun of the uber-bears who think that this is going to be a real tsunami but let’s just all agree to come back here in four years, take a look at the housing market in SoCal and see “who’s the doofus.”

[Ex-SD]

Yeah…………….And……………..
*The Great Depression never happened
*An engineer will be standing at the finish line with a slide rule and will carefully measure the slide of prices against inflation. He will raise a checkered flag and tell everyone when the bottom is reached by using a formula.

My point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.

Have you taken a hard look at the Temecula area lately? You realize that is only a short ride up Hwy 15 from San Diego, don’t you? Think that won’t or can’t happen just down the road?

We have never seen a mess like this since the Great Depression. The job losses are just starting and there’s a gazillion foreclosed homes on the market (plus a lot more coming over the next few years). You can poke fun of the uber-bears who think that this is going to be a real tsunami but let’s just all agree to come back here in four years, take a look at the housing market in SoCal and see “who’s the doofus.”

[Author]

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