[Eugene]

Seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller (basically, 12-month moving average)

[img_assist|nid=5907|title=sd1990|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=398]

[img_assist|nid=5908|title=sd2005|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=374]

[Eugene]

Seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller (basically, 12-month moving average)

[img_assist|nid=5907|title=sd1990|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=398]

[img_assist|nid=5908|title=sd2005|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=374]

[Eugene]

Out of curiousity, found the transcript of the discussion of this bill in the House.

Everyone was talking about rising foreclosures and dealing with “unfairness” of the existing system. One or two dissenters tried to criticize the fact that the bill increases some other taxes to offset costs. The thought that the bill might spur foreclosures hasn’t even crossed anyone’s mind.

[Eugene]

Out of curiousity, found the transcript of the discussion of this bill in the House.

Everyone was talking about rising foreclosures and dealing with “unfairness” of the existing system. One or two dissenters tried to criticize the fact that the bill increases some other taxes to offset costs. The thought that the bill might spur foreclosures hasn’t even crossed anyone’s mind.

[Eugene]

Out of curiousity, found the transcript of the discussion of this bill in the House.

Everyone was talking about rising foreclosures and dealing with “unfairness” of the existing system. One or two dissenters tried to criticize the fact that the bill increases some other taxes to offset costs. The thought that the bill might spur foreclosures hasn’t even crossed anyone’s mind.

[Eugene]

Out of curiousity, found the transcript of the discussion of this bill in the House.

Everyone was talking about rising foreclosures and dealing with “unfairness” of the existing system. One or two dissenters tried to criticize the fact that the bill increases some other taxes to offset costs. The thought that the bill might spur foreclosures hasn’t even crossed anyone’s mind.

[Eugene]

Out of curiousity, found the transcript of the discussion of this bill in the House.

Everyone was talking about rising foreclosures and dealing with “unfairness” of the existing system. One or two dissenters tried to criticize the fact that the bill increases some other taxes to offset costs. The thought that the bill might spur foreclosures hasn’t even crossed anyone’s mind.

[Eugene]

Any idea what will be the commute time to downtown from 4S ranch.

I’d guesstimate 1/2 hour, but it depends a lot on your exact schedule.

Is DelSur comparable to 4SRanch regarding schools, people ..etc

The thing about 4S and Del Sur, they are very new, so schools in those areas don’t have very long track record. And they are still building. Two new elementary schools are scheduled to open in Del Sur next year, for example.

Middle school in 4S (Oak Valley) is somewhat better than middle school in Del Sur (Black Mountain). Both neighborhoods are assigned to the same high school.

4S and Del Sur are both in the same highly respectable Poway school district.

[Eugene]

Any idea what will be the commute time to downtown from 4S ranch.

I’d guesstimate 1/2 hour, but it depends a lot on your exact schedule.

Is DelSur comparable to 4SRanch regarding schools, people ..etc

The thing about 4S and Del Sur, they are very new, so schools in those areas don’t have very long track record. And they are still building. Two new elementary schools are scheduled to open in Del Sur next year, for example.

Middle school in 4S (Oak Valley) is somewhat better than middle school in Del Sur (Black Mountain). Both neighborhoods are assigned to the same high school.

4S and Del Sur are both in the same highly respectable Poway school district.

[Eugene]

Any idea what will be the commute time to downtown from 4S ranch.

I’d guesstimate 1/2 hour, but it depends a lot on your exact schedule.

Is DelSur comparable to 4SRanch regarding schools, people ..etc

The thing about 4S and Del Sur, they are very new, so schools in those areas don’t have very long track record. And they are still building. Two new elementary schools are scheduled to open in Del Sur next year, for example.

Middle school in 4S (Oak Valley) is somewhat better than middle school in Del Sur (Black Mountain). Both neighborhoods are assigned to the same high school.

4S and Del Sur are both in the same highly respectable Poway school district.

[Eugene]

Any idea what will be the commute time to downtown from 4S ranch.

I’d guesstimate 1/2 hour, but it depends a lot on your exact schedule.

Is DelSur comparable to 4SRanch regarding schools, people ..etc

The thing about 4S and Del Sur, they are very new, so schools in those areas don’t have very long track record. And they are still building. Two new elementary schools are scheduled to open in Del Sur next year, for example.

Middle school in 4S (Oak Valley) is somewhat better than middle school in Del Sur (Black Mountain). Both neighborhoods are assigned to the same high school.

4S and Del Sur are both in the same highly respectable Poway school district.

[Eugene]

Any idea what will be the commute time to downtown from 4S ranch.

I’d guesstimate 1/2 hour, but it depends a lot on your exact schedule.

Is DelSur comparable to 4SRanch regarding schools, people ..etc

The thing about 4S and Del Sur, they are very new, so schools in those areas don’t have very long track record. And they are still building. Two new elementary schools are scheduled to open in Del Sur next year, for example.

Middle school in 4S (Oak Valley) is somewhat better than middle school in Del Sur (Black Mountain). Both neighborhoods are assigned to the same high school.

4S and Del Sur are both in the same highly respectable Poway school district.

[Eugene]

Here’s my theory.

Typical deflation period of a speculative bubble is 3 years. That’s approximately how long it took NASDAQ to deflate (Feb ’00 to Sep ’02). That’s how long it took DOW to deflate in the beginning of the Great Depression (Jul ’29 to Apr ’32).

Entry-level houses don’t form extended bottoms. People get married and have kids all the time. Demand from new homebuyers is always there, as long as the price is right. Unlike in the 90’s, we’ll have a lot of must-sell supply from all the foreclosures. Low tier will quickly fall to 2001-2002 prices and switch to modest growth as soon as early 2009, in accordance with the 3-year rule.

Coastal/move-up market is in more trouble. Demand for move-up houses will progressively get worse. People who bought in 2003 and later will not be in any shape to move up. Many will get foreclosed upon and end up locked out of the housing market for a few years. In 2009-2011, 5/1 and neg-am ARM resets will flush the remaining holdouts.

Massive numbers of foreclosures will occur throughout 2008. After the foreclosure, you have to wait 3 years before you can get a FHA loan. In 2011 we will see a surge in demand from people who abandoned their houses in 2008 and chose to rent rather than leave the state.

[Eugene]

Here’s my theory.

Typical deflation period of a speculative bubble is 3 years. That’s approximately how long it took NASDAQ to deflate (Feb ’00 to Sep ’02). That’s how long it took DOW to deflate in the beginning of the Great Depression (Jul ’29 to Apr ’32).

Entry-level houses don’t form extended bottoms. People get married and have kids all the time. Demand from new homebuyers is always there, as long as the price is right. Unlike in the 90’s, we’ll have a lot of must-sell supply from all the foreclosures. Low tier will quickly fall to 2001-2002 prices and switch to modest growth as soon as early 2009, in accordance with the 3-year rule.

Coastal/move-up market is in more trouble. Demand for move-up houses will progressively get worse. People who bought in 2003 and later will not be in any shape to move up. Many will get foreclosed upon and end up locked out of the housing market for a few years. In 2009-2011, 5/1 and neg-am ARM resets will flush the remaining holdouts.

Massive numbers of foreclosures will occur throughout 2008. After the foreclosure, you have to wait 3 years before you can get a FHA loan. In 2011 we will see a surge in demand from people who abandoned their houses in 2008 and chose to rent rather than leave the state.

[Eugene]

Here’s my theory.

Typical deflation period of a speculative bubble is 3 years. That’s approximately how long it took NASDAQ to deflate (Feb ’00 to Sep ’02). That’s how long it took DOW to deflate in the beginning of the Great Depression (Jul ’29 to Apr ’32).

Entry-level houses don’t form extended bottoms. People get married and have kids all the time. Demand from new homebuyers is always there, as long as the price is right. Unlike in the 90’s, we’ll have a lot of must-sell supply from all the foreclosures. Low tier will quickly fall to 2001-2002 prices and switch to modest growth as soon as early 2009, in accordance with the 3-year rule.

Coastal/move-up market is in more trouble. Demand for move-up houses will progressively get worse. People who bought in 2003 and later will not be in any shape to move up. Many will get foreclosed upon and end up locked out of the housing market for a few years. In 2009-2011, 5/1 and neg-am ARM resets will flush the remaining holdouts.

Massive numbers of foreclosures will occur throughout 2008. After the foreclosure, you have to wait 3 years before you can get a FHA loan. In 2011 we will see a surge in demand from people who abandoned their houses in 2008 and chose to rent rather than leave the state.

[Author]

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