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Escoguy
ParticipantRSF is a complex market. These do pop up from time to time but it’s out of range for most buyers and doesn’t make sense as a rental except in very limited circumstances. So yes congrats on the deal, if you are in that price category, there is likely more out there but you need to work with a very experienced agent who knows RSF and how to make it work.
ParticipantRich,
Thanks for the charts and analysis, for those of us who were able to buy a few years ago when the market was soft, websites like this are very valuable pieces of information. Perhaps world view is too much, rather just market perspective.
I always think a certain amount of skepticism is healthy and would of helped avoid the 2005 scenario.
When I say it takes a lot of work to figure out the market, specifically, it would be interesting to know what effect interest rates have or population growth in isolation. That may be unknowable, but for now it seems like rates will stay low for the near to mid term and demand is there. Even as an investor, I’d prefer gently rising markets of 2%/year for the next decade than 4-5%/then potentially down again. As such I’ll stay a dedicated reader if only to check my own “world view”
ParticipantPersonal theory, Rich may have liked watching the market go down while it did, and of course seeing a recovery is also interesting up to the normal level, but then it keeps going. Somehow it seems distasteful that the same scenario could play out again. But it takes a lot of work to show why 2015 is different from 2005.
Higher population, tighter lending, lower energy prices, lower interest rates.Makes for a mix which any rational economist may find annoying and unpredictable, but when all’s said and done, the Fed is afraid to raise rates, the stock market keeps going, there is not enough new supply and more and more folks both legal and illegal are coming into Cali.
So, no I don’t think Rich is bored, I just think it’s hard for him to be excited about seeing things develop exactly the way they are because it doesn’t quite fit with the world view. Just thoughts.ParticipantIf the median home is about 500K now and you can save 30K/year, on balance you won’t be too far behind even if the market goes up 2-3%/year for next five years. Worst case over 5 years, you lose 50K in appreciation but save about 150K plus earnings (from work) on the investment (say 20K more). Then you would have 270K to work with even if prices are at 550K, they will still be fairly affordable to you. And when you buy, you can buy what you really want and not worry about trading up. One negative is, the property taxes will be higher by 1% of that amount (difference) for all years going forward.
I think the mistake many make is thinking the patterns of the past will repeat.
It is much harder to get loans now and investors who get used to monthly steady rent payments probably don’t want to sell out and put their money in CDs or govt bonds which pay less. Stocks are close to an all time high, so that’s not so appealing too from a value standpoint. While there are some negatives out there like low wage growth, on balance low energy prices, low inflation, low interest rates and other commodity prices should allow for reasonable growth in the US in the next few years.A good realtor should be able to find you a short sale, there are still some out there or a pre foreclosure. It may take some work, but if you want your 10%, that’s how to do it.
ParticipantWe have a second system with them on a different house where we pay a monthly lease fee. $85/fixed for 20 years for a 5 kw system.
So if they go under we can stop making payments on the second system and have power from both.ParticipantNot sure if climate change will be so dramatic, possibly much longer and less noticeable.
In any event, we save a few thousand dollars a year with two electric vehicles (EVs) Nissan Leaf and Honda Accord PHEV which are powered by solar. 3KW system cost $8800 as 20 year prepaid lease with Sungevity. We drive 24K miles/year but I use about 120 gallons of gas. The Leaf is pure electric and we get about 100 mpg with the Honda.ParticipantWe did one prepaid lease with Sungevity: 3KW for $8800 about a year ago. It produces 4500 kwh/year. Avg cost/kwh= 9.5 cents.
I’m doing a second regular lease with them for a 4.9KW system. I put $1000 down and have a flat $85/month for 20 years. It will produce about 8000 khw/year on average. Avg cost 8 cents.
For two other smaller rentals, I priced 3KW systems as leases from Solar city, they were in the $55/month range. They were more competitive for small systems.
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