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EconProf
ParticipantThere is a malady out there called Trump Derangement Syndrome–TDS, wherein Trump haters lose all semblance of rational thought in their obsession with Trump and Trump supporters. The comments on this thread show this obsession, as expressed by the same commentators whenever the subject of Trump comes up.
This thread was started by Moneymaker, who made a fair observation about the State of the Union Address shared by many. This was mocked by the TDS crowd, as was a fairly innocent comment by NeetaT. TDS folks talk mainly to each other, and can’t stand dissent, so they have to squash alternative viewpoints.
Keep it up guys. You are helping Trump win reelection.ParticipantMore good economic news from the Trump economy that liberals should be cheering.
The Labor Department just reported a jump in jobs of 312,000 for the most recent month, plus an upward revision of 58,000 for the previous month.
Importantly, the employment numbers under Trump seem to be helping the poorest of Americans.The lowest-paid employees are getting the largest wage hikes.
419,000 people got off the sidelines and joined the labor force. So previously “out of the work force” individuals started looking for a job (thus pushing up slightly the official unemployment rate).
Wage gains in 2018 were 3.2%, largest in a decade.
Job “leavers”–voluntary quits, jumped again, indicating workers’ confidence they can readily find a new job.
There is increasing evidence that the tight job market is forcing employers to hire previously shunned applicants–the less educated, minority, ex-felon applicant with a weak resume and job history.
Trump the liberal.ParticipantMore good news today resulting from the strong economy:
Unemployment rate fell from 4% to 3.9%
157,000 new jobs. (This is slightly below expectations, but past months’ figures were revised upward by 96,000, so total gain is 253,000).
Big increase in workers moving from part time to full time.
Number of officially unemployed, defined as out of work and actively looking for work, declined by 284,000.
The “quit rate”, voluntary separation by employees, highest in recorded history. This indicates workers’ confidence in finding another job.
ParticipantMore good economic news today: 2d quarter GNP growth rate hit 4.1%. (Obama’s growth rate for eight years averaged under 2%.) Also, unemployment rate fell from 4% to 3.8%.
Lots of good things that conservatives and liberals agree upon happen from strong economic growth. Poverty falls, government revenues at all levels rise, home values and homeowners’ equity increases, stock market enriches investors and government pension plans (NASDAQ up 52% since election), etc., etc.ParticipantLiberals, and the vast majority of economists, favor free trade–no tariffs, no non-tariff barriers, no subsidies to favored industries.
And yesterday, that is just what Trump and the EU’s representative agreed to work toward.Once again, if we look at Trump’s policies and results, rather than his silly tweets, we see real progress toward what liberals claim to want.
Trump the liberal.
ParticipantA budget is planned future expenditures compared to planned future revenue. It’s really not complicated.
Participant[quote=spdrun]Budget signed in 2018 is based on 2017 revenues, before Trump had much (if any) of an effect. As an “econ prof” you should know better.
Also, not all state and local spending is good according to liberals. The 2008 recession was one of the things that forced states to cut back on law enforcement, mass incarceration, and re-evaluate idiotic drug laws.[/quote]
Uh no. A budget is future spending compared to future revenues. In the words of the Department of Finance, “In May, (the Department of) Finance submits revenue and expenditure estimates for both the current and budget years to the legislature.” That was the budget recently signed by Governor Brown in the last stage of the budgetary process.
In fact, it is the budget for fiscal year 2018-19, which runs next October 1 until September 30, 2019. So it apparently anticipates strong tax revenues for the next year and a quarter.
ParticipantHere’s another reason liberals should be cheering the buoyant Trump economy: its surging tax revenues are enabling state and local spending to keep expanding.
In the just-signed CA budget, General Fund expenditures are up $11.6 billion, a 9.2% increase over the previous year and way above the rate of inflation. Governor Brown should send a thank-you note to the White House.Trump the liberal.
ParticipantMore good employment news today that liberals should be cheering.
213,000 new jobs created last month.
Hispanic unemployment rate lowest in history– 4.6%, down from 4.9% in previous month.
Black unemployment rate still super low.
Hispanic and African-American support rising for Trump, worrying Democrats.The unemployment rate overall actually rose to 4%, reportedly because previously discouraged workers are coming off the sidelines after hearing about employers anxious to hire.
Trump the liberal.
ParticipantSpdrun:
Jan King started out with French fries at a Dayton, Ohio McDonald’s in 1978. She eventually headed up McDonalds USA and now is Chairman of the Board of Buffalo Wild Wings.
If you would like to meet her, she will be the keynote speaker September 14 at the San Diego Lincoln Club Dinner.
That way you could ask her what she thinks of her first job as a “lard and grease slinger”.ParticipantLet’s look more closely at the possibility of upward mobility for that “historically disadvantaged” youngster with a “deadend McJob” compared to one who takes government freebees.
He or she may be a minority, growing up poor, likely without a father present, going to a crap inner-city school with unionized teachers, and maybe has a run-in with the law on record.
Our booming economy forces employers to consider these previously-overlooked applicants. That first job exposes the youngster to valuable life-lessons for the first time: Be on time, dress well, be courteous, work hard whether you feel like it or not. Most of all, a weekly paycheck gives them pride of accomplishment. And that demanding boss may be the first father-figure they ever had.
That first job can be the bottom rung of the ladder where they advance within the company (many McDonalds managers started at the bottom) or can enable them to put something on their resume when they apply for a better job elsewhere.ParticipantMore good economic news: Unemployment compensation claims were predicted to come in at 233,000. Instead, they were 190,000.
As the Trump economy continues to grow beyond expectations of the experts, the unemployment rate hits new lows, and the unemployment rate for the historically most disadvantaged falls even faster than that for average workers, the irony continues. Whatever you may think of Trump the man, his policies have done more to help those groups liberals claim to want to help than any government handouts Obama delivered.Participant[quote=spdrun]Atlanta Fed, 5.4% predicted for Q1 2018:
http://www.businessinsider.com/atlanta-fed-gdp-now-forecasts-5-percent-growth-in-q1-2018-2Obamacare employer mandate is still in place, BTW. Though personally, I think the whole fucking thing should be torn down and replaced with public insurance for all.[/quote]
You are right about the Atlanta Fed’s forecast, and I stand corrected.
If you want the government to take over all of health care, then stay in California. Several candidates for governor and other offices are pushing “Medicare for All”, or single payer (gov.), or other such take-overs that would give us a complete European/Canadian-style system. They don’t like to talk about the cost, however, which would double the state budget. So, whatever we now pay in income taxes, sales taxes, corporate taxes, etc. would double. Then the wealthy would really start moving out, meaning yet higher taxes for those remaining, etc., etc.Participant[quote=spdrun]Atlanta Fed also predicted 5% growth in Q1 2018. Real print: 2.2%.
Dodd-Frank keeps the banks from loaning money to the same kinds of unqualified skells that got foreclosed in 2008. If you want a temporary bubble, OK, but this isn’t sustainable.
Obamacare? Is self-employed people being able to get healthcare at group rates really such a bad thing?[/quote]
I seriously doubt the Atlanta Fed predicted 5% growth in the first quarter. Citation please. If I am wrong, then I stand corrected.
Obamacare put a $2000 fee on employers who did not offer their workers the right kind of health insurance, thus reducing hiring. Many companies keep their employees under 50 to escape Obamacare.
Dodd-Frank was a needed corrective for the reckless banking practices and resulting bailouts of the large banks. Unfortunately, Dodd-Frank applied to all banks regardless of size. But smaller banks, community banks were not the problem–they were not reckless, they did not need the bailouts. But they were saddled with ridiculous reporting requirements and silly rules. As a result, small towns and small businesses were hurt, and many of these banks were bought up by the big banks or disappeared altogether. Because small businesses could not get loans to start up or expand, a lot of hiring that should have taken place did not. Those small businesses and startups are the primary employers of people looking for their first jobs, not the giant corporations.
Dodd-Frank was recently amended to exclude smaller banks, but the damage has already been done. -
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