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EconProf
ParticipantA bit of history about San Diego from this geeser. When we first moved here so I could teach at SDSU, 45 years ago, CA was the land of opportunity–the Golden State. Pete Wilson was the San Diego mayor, later CA senator. CA was Reagan country and the government was efficient, taxes were reasonable, and politics were competitive. A 3 Br, 2 Ba house in the suburb of El Cajon averaged $45,000 in price, the same as the national average. Now the left owns the state, government unions control K-12, the universities, and virtually all city, county, and state offices. Our high taxes, draconian regulations, skyrocketing utility bills are what make CA houses cost three times what the same house will cost in Utah, AZ, Texas, etc. Which explains why CA population is actually shrinking of late in absolute terms. Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.
ParticipantWe just got back from our “walk-through” of the new house and will move in this Friday. Brio is one of many developments this company has done, and they are pros. 400 or so well-designed houses and condos, nearby clubhouse, pools, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, etc. two blocks away. Our 2700 SF single-level has views of snow-capped mountains. Glad we locked in the price last July at approximately $550,000, because the same model is now $57,000 higher.
Talking to the sales manager at Brio and various realtors in town reveals how hot this market is.
New listings are gobbled up in a week and bidding wars are the norm. All the contractors are super busy, and it takes a year to get a house built. One result is that developers of communities no longer quote a fixed price–they realize that waiting until the house is built costs them too much in lost appreciation. Plus they can get hurt by the rising labor and materials costs (lumber has doubled). So they have to build spec homes and then put them on the market, meaning buyers no longer get to chose their colors, options, cabinets, etc., as we did.
Growth in nearby Cedar City (50 minutes up I-15), and Hurricane (20 minutes away) is nearly as frantic as St. George).
So the population is booming, and it is all from an influx of buyers, mainly from California.
Gosh, I wonder why.Participant[quote=spdrun]Isn’t Leavenworth also a military prison?[/quote]
Leavenworth also has a major military base, but that is separate from the Federal Penitentiary I taught at. The base goes back to frontier days and has a storied history. The university I taught at was in St. Joseph, MO, 45 miles away, and where the Pony Express riders started their relay-type trip to Sacramento.
My students at Leavenworth had a sense of humor. Once, during a lecture, two bells went off, a sound I had never heard before while teaching there. I asked the class what that meant. One guy said “Its a signal to take hostages”. They all laughed, except me.
A few minutes three bells went off. I asked what that was supposed to mean. “It means to kill the hostages”.Participant[quote=ucodegen][quote=EconProf]Purgatory Correctional Facility[/quote] That gave me a good laugh!! I like the name.. though I would have just called it ‘Purgatory’.. and then the state lockup would be ‘Hell’… ☺
By the way, Purgatory is in Maine and Hell is in Michigan[/quote]
Interesting you should mention that. I once taught college economics at Leavenworth Federal Penitentiary, while teaching at a nearby university. An interesting experience, to say the least. The guys were in the class partly to collect veteran’s benefits under the GI Bill, to collect upon release. Because Leavenworth is a federal Pen, they had committed federal crimes, such as smuggling, bank robbing, kidnapping, embezzlement, etc. So they weren’t the low-lifes as in local or state facilities. Overall a far more interesting crowd than recent high school graduates, and I enjoyed it.
ParticipantSorry, the above was meant to respond to previous comment about Purgatory Correctional Facility.
ParticipantWe’ve spent many trips to St. George to get to know it, visit son, etc., so what follows are a lot of items responding to various contributions of readers of this thread.
Yes, property taxes are really that low (about 1/2 of 1% of house value) since homeowner’s get about half off on their residence. Other property taxed at slightly over 1% of value, so California’s Prop 13 pales in comparison in terms of taxes one actually pays. Since income taxes are about 1/3 those of CA, our tax bite will fall considerably.
Crime and homelessness is vastly lower. From following the on-line local newspaper, I’ve noticed most crime is from outsiders from Las Vegas, or travelers on I-15, or the low-life repeat offenders common to any city. Local cops are proactive and pull over for minor infractions and discover drugs, intoxication, or suspicious activity and take it from there. Today I read of a guy stopped for throwing a cigarette out the window, so was pulled over, acted suspicious, vehicle searched and he was busted for drug possession with intent to distribute. Was sent to the local jail, which is named, no kidding, Purgatory Correctional Facility.
Utah is rated the most open-carry state in the nation, so be careful when driving there about cutting off a car with Utah plates (joke). Reciprocality laws permit a Utah resident who carries to do so in most every other state. But not California, naturally. Which must be why CA has so little crime and Utah so much. !!!
About Mormonism. St.George is about 2/3 Mormon and the influx of people from the rest of the country is rapidly reducing that percentage. Plenty of other church denominations abound. Mormonism is a spectrum, with many dedicated and devout, and many Mormon in name only. But their stress on health (no coffee, smoking or liquor–rules often broken), education, and fitness is a plus. In general, the people are healthier, younger, whiter, and more courteous than I am used to. Politically conservative, so low taxes and clean government, old-fashioned Americanism, all fine with me, but not for everyone.
Will we miss San Diego weather, cultural amenities, the ocean? Absolutely. But in truth, how often do you go to the beach? The drive and parking make it a one hour chore for us, so is a 2 or 3 per year event. The great quality plays and concerts are also an hour away, while at St. George plays and concerts downtown or at the 8,000 enrollment university are a ten minute drive, albeit not of San Diego quality. Mesquite, Nevada is a scenic 45 minutes away if you want casinos, and Las Vegas another hour on I-15. Ethnic restaurants? All over, and all types. Oh, and they are cheap. Bars? Not many, but growing in number, with two micro-breweries so far.
All this is making the influx of residents mind-blowing. Any house hitting the market is snapped up immediately. Bidding wars? I’ve been told by one broker that when something new comes on the market the way to get it is not just be pre-qualified, no contingency, full price in your offer, but simply offer more. But maybe that is just broker-talk. I’m hoping to buy troubled houses or condos with all cash, quick close, then fix them up, then get a loan & rent out. Rinse, repeat. Yeah, rents are soaring too.Participant[quote=scaredyclassic]I approve. I miss my grandpa. He was a really good guy. He moved to be two blocks from me.
Also that setup at brio looks damn nice. And i like this a lot…https://intermountainhealthcare.org/locations/st-george-regional-hospital/hospital-information/
Financed or cash? What was your reasoning?[/quote]
Loan. At these rates, a no-brainer. Besides, I loan out at 10% + on fix & flips, second TD’s, etc. Will do that in the St. George/Washington City area too. (these two cities are joined at the hip. Technically, we’ll be in Washington City).
ParticipantIn case anyone is interested in seeing what their money will buy in St. George, go to lifeatbrio.com. Great scenery of the area too.
Brio is a development of about 400 homes and is about two-thirds built out. We signed for the house last July at a cost of about $495,000, but added about $50,000 of custom features. The same model is now about $45,000 more expensive now, so nice gain already.
Confession: We’ll be about two miles from my son, his wife, their four-year old boy and two-year old girl, and we fully intend to spoil them. So it is not my smarts that led me to St. George, but the good instincts of this happy couple.Participant[quote=gzz]I don’t understanding the property tax unless schools are funded differently there. You have big Mormon families, but an especially large house is only 3K?
I like both SLC and Park City, but I felt there were some downsides. SLC had an unpleasant smell everywhere. Maybe you get used to it. And I saw a lot of homeless, not concentrated but wondering around or loitering all over the place in small groups. Park City was beautiful in the off season, but basically as expensive as here.
Downtown SLC had a ton of urban amenities and was really clean, new, and organized. They also did a good job of keeping it dense but on a walkable human scale. It reminded me a lot of downtown San Jose.
My top escape to the interior West would be Phoenix. Just as cheap or cheaper as other areas, but with big city amenities. They also got the best water deal, so water is cheaper and more plentiful than NV.[/quote]
gzz: I agree that $3000 property tax looks suspiciously low, so I need confirmation on that. And Salt Lake City did have a surprisingly large number of homeless people. I guess that goes with any big city.
ParticipantI agree the market here is hot–we sold our house to the first couple that saw it and they took 20 minutes to say yes to our asking price. Yeah, I know. I should have asked more, but we are now tenants for two months while the St. George house gets finished.
Footnote: I said our property taxes would fall from over $16,000 per year to 3,000. That’s about one-half of one percent of the value of the house, which seems unrealistically low. A realtor gave me that figure and I’d like another source to confirm it, so don’t quote me. And yes, our SD house taxes included Mello Roos.
Agree that the SD market is hot, but the St. George market is hotter. Almost nothing sells for asking price, bidding wars are the norm, and loan contingencies in offers get nowhere. New developments are popping up all over, and Cedar City, an hour north on I-15 is just as hot, as is Hurricane, just north of St. George.
The population is exploding as new residents come in from everywhere, especially CA. Because St. George schools are largely open, teachers tell of CA parents desperate to get their kids into in-person learning, so some are living in St. George motels in order to do so.
All the contractors are overwhelmed with work. Imported workers live in motels or sleep in their vehicles in motel parking lots–probably to use the facilities of the room where their buddies are staying. One realtor told me tofigure on one and a half years to get a new house built.
While the SD and St. George markets are both hot, it is for different reasons, as perhaps sdrealtor can confirm. St. George is strong because of people moving in, while SD is strong because of lack of inventory. That lack of inventory due to COVID fears, plus expense of building here. And I also suspect tech refugees are deserting their shithole LA and Bay area cities to come to tech-friendly San Diego. Thoughts…?ParticipantBingo. sdrealtor also mentioned it.
Population about 150,000 in the metropolitan area and growing like crazy. Zion National Park about 30 minutes away and Vegas two hours south. Weather a bit better than Phoenix and Vegas because of higher elevation–5-10 degrees cooler in summer and winter.
Because of its growth, everything is new there–stores, housing developments, national chains, etc. Everything within about a ten minute drive, on great roads, and I-15, which runs through it.
The people are young, have conservative politics, good schools (they largely did not close down from COVID, and in gyms few wear masks), no visible homeless people, and economy booming. Yes, I’ll invest in RE there.
The people are about two-thirds Mormon, which we are just fine with. Makes for large, healthy-looking families, hard workers, clean government, old-fashioned family values, low taxes.ParticipantSo far only one Pigg nailed it.
Another hint: great scenery
ParticipantSpdrun: What I take from your comments:
Trump did not mandate masks.
(They were unavailable during first few weeks, their efficacy was unproven initially, and Dr. Fauci initially said they were useless.)Trump did not provide one-day results on tests.
(Technically impossible initially, and not done anywhere in the world at first. Now–results in hours.)NYC reopening successfully.
(Worst. Deaths. Anywhere.)Fundamentalist Christians like Israel and are also anti-semitic.
(OK, if you say so)Participant[quote=svelte][quote=EconProf]
Up until the Chinese virus hit us, the economy was roaring ahead, clearly outpacing the GNP growth rates of the Obama
years.[/quote]lol, so you choose to completely ignore the hard numbers I posted and resort to generalizations.
Here are the numbers from the US and IMF:
Obama
2009 – -2.54
2010 – 2.56
2011 – 1.55
2012 – 2.25
2013 – 1.84
2014 – 2.53
2015 – 2.91
2016 – 1.64Trump
2017 – 2.37
2018 – 2.93
2019 – 2.33
2020 – -5.91Obama averaged 1.311
Trump averaged 0.43
You chose to ignore that and instead posted a generalization and excused Trump’s performance. Funny you didn’t make any allowances for Obama’s.
I would submit that the first year of a president’s term was based on the prior president, so it would all be shifted a year which would give Obama 2.2 and Trump 1.02
Not exactly a stellar story!
And yes we can blame Trump for this year – his floundering on a pandemic response and outright lies land this firmly in his lap. You know, the buck stops here thing? Only Trump doesn’t take responsibility for anything. Unless it’s positive, then he’ll take credit whether he did it or not.[/quote]
Svelte,
It is interesting that you include 2020 in your numbers. What is Trump’s average if you took his first three years compared to Obama’s eight years?
Thanks for making my point. -
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