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EconProf
ParticipantWhoops, still trying to figure out the Piggington posting rules!
Participant[quote=flyer]EP, so glad to hear you’re doing well. Although there do seem to be more and more people who can’t make it CA, we know a number of people, like you, who have chosen to leave CA, and not because they couldn’t make it here.
Many feel they have maxed out their California experience over a period of many years, and just want a change, or have other reasons. Most are in a position where they can come back anytime, so leaving temporarily, or otherwise, is not really an issue.
Personally, we love everything about our lives in CA, and, after seeing what most of the world has to offer, really don’t feel the need to make a change, but still respect the need or desire others may have to do so.[/quote]
ParticipantThanks Flyer, and completely agree. COVID plus the ability to work remotely from home has upended decisions of where to live in many ways. It’s not just a San Diego vs. St. George issue. People are fleeing the big cities for both outer suburbs and ex-urbs (example–LA to Riverside County).
St. George has a building boom of big houses near our airport because of direct daily flights to LA so CA workers can check in once a month or once a week with their employer.Participantsdr: Interesting you say that UT has more gov’t employees per capita than CA, since CA ranks 8th in state taxes per capita ($4,424) and UT ranks 37th (2,543)–I googled state taxes per capita. I guess we pay our government employees less.
This ignores local taxes, and CA has that great Prop 13, right? The property taxes on my house are a little over 1/2% of value.
Regarding housing appreciation rates, I googled “US State Home Price Appreciation”, and Utah came in 2d in the nation at 27.05% as of end of 2021 (AZ was 1st). CA came in at 16th with 19.62%. SD undoubtedly came in better than the state average. By the same token, St. George is doing better than the state average. We are getting an influx of people from the Salt Lake City area. Some come for the weather (!), and reportedly SLC has air pollution and a homeless problem.ParticipantGood question Coronita, and a simple answer: condos have no yard maintenance for me, are easily rented, appreciate at the same rate as houses, and are less likely to have families with kids.
sdr: not sure where you are getting a 10% appreciation rate here–mine have gone up 21.5% since July, and I’ve heard 20% is the norm. This will probably be a lot less from now on due to rising interest rates.
We are still getting an influx of Californians and the builders cannot keep up with the demand. Utah has an unemployment rate of 2%, so they are coming for the jobs, as well as low taxes, good schools (which largely did not close), clean government, and cheap housing.
But before you remind me–yes, I miss the San Diego weather.ParticipantYes, sdr, rates will probably hurt values everywhere.
Glad I bought my three condos last summer. Two of them in same complex (3 Br, 2 Ba, double garage), for $335k each. Zillow puts them at $407k now, for what that’s worth. Another 2,1 condo for $190K, rents for $1100, and Zillow has no updated value for it. Vacancies are non-existent.
This weekend is the Ironman World Championship, which we permanently stole from Hawaii, so lots of visitors, all looking buff too!ParticipantMany reasons, but here are three factors I’ve read about:
1. The overly generous COVID free money meant that for many people getting a job would mean a drop in income, this despite the rapidly rising hourly pay rates offered by desperate employers.
2. California’s generous rent relief programs encourages many to stay unemployed.
3. Mothers with school-aged children quit to take care of their new responsibilities at home, especially in the blue states like CA with strong teachers’ unions. A surprising number are deciding to not return to work.Participantsdr, you are usually pretty good with math, but a few corrections are in order.
July of 2020 was more like a year and a half ago, not two. So our appreciation rate was about 20% per year, in line with most all the RE reports on St. George houses.
No I did not sell my San Diego RE investments 2-3 years ago…more like twelve years ago, investing in AZ. Yep, it would have done better if left in San Diego, but not by much.
The new house we moved into last April did not require any money to be move-in ready as the developer (Brio) gave us so many choices and optional add-ons, costing about 50K but included in the $556,000 price.
Back to the bigger picture, CA has the highest unemployment rate 7.7% (BLS, December), and Utah second lowest (1.9%), with St. George the lowest in Utah. Utah has the 2d fastest population growth and CA is losing population faster than all states except NY and IL. I’m guessing the politics of each state is a major factor. Incidentally, our property taxes are about one-half of one percent, so moving to a better house with better government cut our taxes paid by about 80%. Income taxes, likewise.
Congrats on your low utility bills, but let’s not ignore the $20,000 to $40,000 you probably spent to put in solar.
As you and I have previously pointed out, SD is benefitting from people moving from the two other worse-governed coastal California metropolitan areas who still want to stay near the ocean. With employers fleeing CA to other western states, I’m not sure how long that will prop up San Diego prices.ParticipantNow about our RE…hard to accept Redfin’s claim our home prices are down 3% YOY, since all other reports say 20% or so. Could be because Redfin does not hold constant the size or quality of homes sold. So more small houses or condos would yield that misleading figure.
I can only speak for my own experience of moving last April into our new house for $556,000. Am now refinancing and the appraisal came in at $730,000. The refi will enable me to add to my stock of rental condos (3 currently).
PS: our house price was set in the previous July, so appreciation was not as large as it appears.ParticipantThanks sdr for keeping this old thread alive. I still like to keep up with SD RE trends on Piggington.
Re your comments, yes it can get cold here, and warm in the summers, although our elevation keeps us better off than nearby Vegas.
I looked up official average St. George temperature highs and lows and rainfall for February: average daytime high 59, nighttime low 37. Brutal! 3 days with precipitation.
For March, 68, 43, and 4 days of precipitation.
That must account for our awful utility bills on our 2550 SF house: January water + el bill: $170.24. Gas bill: 97.28.
In hot July, el + water = 213.19. (Combined because the City collects for both). sdr, care to tell us what your July numbers were?ParticipantAll:
Good point about UCSD enrollment growth. I checked SDSU’S numbers, but not UCSD. It always had a better academic record, and now has going for it a direct trolley, enabling students to live far away in cheaper neighborhoods. And as a Pacific coast location, proximity to Asian students plus emphasis on STEM subjects helps.
As I’ve always said, San Diego is the best of the CA coastal cities, enabling it to offset some of California’s disadvantages. And the UCSD neighborhood is perhaps the hottest of San Diego’s areas. So price trends there don’t necessarily indicate CA’s future.
PS: I once owned three condos at La Jolla Vista Townhomes–mostly student tenants. One I bought for $117,000 which Zillow now puts at over $700,000. I vaguely remember I happily sold at about $220,000.ParticipantOK, another factoid that may predict housing price trends by state. I believe where people are moving to or out of is one of the predictors of where RE will do well or poorly.
For a variety of reasons, college enrollments nationwide are falling: down 3.2% last fall, and 3.4% this fall, accordingly to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
Anyway, the local St. George university is up this year by 1.85% to 12,266, and at a
nearby Cedar City college enrollments jumped by 20.65%.
Gee, I wonder how many of these new students are from CA?ParticipantYep, it’s not for softies.
BTW, it is not as hot as the fastest growing big city in the US: Phoenix.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Y’all covered it pretty well
Enjoy your new home. I’m enjoying my long term home and will continue to do so
for the fun of it I googled most overpriced cities in America. Guess which state has 3 out of 10 of the most overpriced real estate markets?
Interesting article, sdr, and thank you for sharing it. But what is it really revealing? It lists the most “overpriced” and “underpriced” cities. Top of the list of “overpriced” is Boise, Idaho, followed by Austin, Ogden, and Provo. But these are the very cities people are fleeing TO, thus boosting their prices of late.
The article then defines as “underpriced” Honolulu, Virginia Beach VA, Baltimore, and New York–the cities people are moving FROM of late, thus lowering their RE prices.
My whole thesis is to invest long term in where people are moving TO, not FROM. With the runup in prices in Boise, its prices are probably still lower than, say, Honolulu. As an aside, Boise has had the highest rent increase among cities according to one source. I would guess that its prices and rents are still lower than Honolulu or NYC.
FWIW, I’ve bought 3 condos since moving to St. George, all with prices and rents about half to one-third comparable properties in San Diego. The price per SF has risen 28% in St. George in the past one year.
I believe in looking at long term demographic trends. The factors that made SD a great place to invest are slowly being offset by the negatives.
I agree with most everyone here, to each his own, and I wish the best to all, whatever their choice. -
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