[DWCAP]

WoW, that was a great thread hijack. Didnt even see it coming. I was suddenly like, huh, bay area stuff?

sdr, sorry to step in on the reply. I just dont know how anyone who is here longer than a few weeks couldnt know that:

A) your area is the NC coast
B) you know what you are talking about
C) You dont pull punches.

I dont know if I am glad or not to hear you are on your best behavior. I always read your posts, even if it is stuff I wish wasnt happening.

[DWCAP]

WoW, that was a great thread hijack. Didnt even see it coming. I was suddenly like, huh, bay area stuff?

sdr, sorry to step in on the reply. I just dont know how anyone who is here longer than a few weeks couldnt know that:

A) your area is the NC coast
B) you know what you are talking about
C) You dont pull punches.

I dont know if I am glad or not to hear you are on your best behavior. I always read your posts, even if it is stuff I wish wasnt happening.

[DWCAP]

first, I know the super high end sells slow, but that is a .4/month selling rate. With 75 on the market, that is what, a 15 year supply? That is nuts, any way you slice it.

Second, Maybe I am reading the OP post wrong, but Y/Y isnt LV inventory DOWN about 1k? Meaning LV is under the same pressures SD is, just not the same extent?
I suppose he is talking about 06-09, but that is a really weird timeframe. LV and SD markets are totally seperate, with differnt timelines of bubble colapse and amounts of bubble pricing. In 06 we wernt even in a recession. This seems to be too short of a time frame to give a good a good sense of historcial president and too long a time frame to account for the short term forces buffiting the market.

You can find alot of evidence to support any argument want if you get to manipulate the time frames. Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[DWCAP]

first, I know the super high end sells slow, but that is a .4/month selling rate. With 75 on the market, that is what, a 15 year supply? That is nuts, any way you slice it.

Second, Maybe I am reading the OP post wrong, but Y/Y isnt LV inventory DOWN about 1k? Meaning LV is under the same pressures SD is, just not the same extent?
I suppose he is talking about 06-09, but that is a really weird timeframe. LV and SD markets are totally seperate, with differnt timelines of bubble colapse and amounts of bubble pricing. In 06 we wernt even in a recession. This seems to be too short of a time frame to give a good a good sense of historcial president and too long a time frame to account for the short term forces buffiting the market.

You can find alot of evidence to support any argument want if you get to manipulate the time frames. Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[DWCAP]

first, I know the super high end sells slow, but that is a .4/month selling rate. With 75 on the market, that is what, a 15 year supply? That is nuts, any way you slice it.

Second, Maybe I am reading the OP post wrong, but Y/Y isnt LV inventory DOWN about 1k? Meaning LV is under the same pressures SD is, just not the same extent?
I suppose he is talking about 06-09, but that is a really weird timeframe. LV and SD markets are totally seperate, with differnt timelines of bubble colapse and amounts of bubble pricing. In 06 we wernt even in a recession. This seems to be too short of a time frame to give a good a good sense of historcial president and too long a time frame to account for the short term forces buffiting the market.

You can find alot of evidence to support any argument want if you get to manipulate the time frames. Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[DWCAP]

first, I know the super high end sells slow, but that is a .4/month selling rate. With 75 on the market, that is what, a 15 year supply? That is nuts, any way you slice it.

Second, Maybe I am reading the OP post wrong, but Y/Y isnt LV inventory DOWN about 1k? Meaning LV is under the same pressures SD is, just not the same extent?
I suppose he is talking about 06-09, but that is a really weird timeframe. LV and SD markets are totally seperate, with differnt timelines of bubble colapse and amounts of bubble pricing. In 06 we wernt even in a recession. This seems to be too short of a time frame to give a good a good sense of historcial president and too long a time frame to account for the short term forces buffiting the market.

You can find alot of evidence to support any argument want if you get to manipulate the time frames. Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[DWCAP]

first, I know the super high end sells slow, but that is a .4/month selling rate. With 75 on the market, that is what, a 15 year supply? That is nuts, any way you slice it.

Second, Maybe I am reading the OP post wrong, but Y/Y isnt LV inventory DOWN about 1k? Meaning LV is under the same pressures SD is, just not the same extent?
I suppose he is talking about 06-09, but that is a really weird timeframe. LV and SD markets are totally seperate, with differnt timelines of bubble colapse and amounts of bubble pricing. In 06 we wernt even in a recession. This seems to be too short of a time frame to give a good a good sense of historcial president and too long a time frame to account for the short term forces buffiting the market.

You can find alot of evidence to support any argument want if you get to manipulate the time frames. Any reason you chose those timeframes?

[DWCAP]

No, cause the only real game in town now is the federal government through either:
A) Fannie
B) Freddie
C) FHA

They dont care about their return on investment, it isnt their investment (it is the taxpayers). They care about being re-elected and generating the necessary campaign donations to be re-elected. Both come from proping up the morgage market with taxpayer money, and dont come from getting a real, balanced return (when considering the crazy times we are in).

Without the GSE bailout prices would have fallen apart as new lending dried up.

[DWCAP]

No, cause the only real game in town now is the federal government through either:
A) Fannie
B) Freddie
C) FHA

They dont care about their return on investment, it isnt their investment (it is the taxpayers). They care about being re-elected and generating the necessary campaign donations to be re-elected. Both come from proping up the morgage market with taxpayer money, and dont come from getting a real, balanced return (when considering the crazy times we are in).

Without the GSE bailout prices would have fallen apart as new lending dried up.

[DWCAP]

No, cause the only real game in town now is the federal government through either:
A) Fannie
B) Freddie
C) FHA

They dont care about their return on investment, it isnt their investment (it is the taxpayers). They care about being re-elected and generating the necessary campaign donations to be re-elected. Both come from proping up the morgage market with taxpayer money, and dont come from getting a real, balanced return (when considering the crazy times we are in).

Without the GSE bailout prices would have fallen apart as new lending dried up.

[DWCAP]

No, cause the only real game in town now is the federal government through either:
A) Fannie
B) Freddie
C) FHA

They dont care about their return on investment, it isnt their investment (it is the taxpayers). They care about being re-elected and generating the necessary campaign donations to be re-elected. Both come from proping up the morgage market with taxpayer money, and dont come from getting a real, balanced return (when considering the crazy times we are in).

Without the GSE bailout prices would have fallen apart as new lending dried up.

[DWCAP]

No, cause the only real game in town now is the federal government through either:
A) Fannie
B) Freddie
C) FHA

They dont care about their return on investment, it isnt their investment (it is the taxpayers). They care about being re-elected and generating the necessary campaign donations to be re-elected. Both come from proping up the morgage market with taxpayer money, and dont come from getting a real, balanced return (when considering the crazy times we are in).

Without the GSE bailout prices would have fallen apart as new lending dried up.

[DWCAP]

[quote=temeculaguy]Wouldn’t you just love to be a juror if someone sued for bad investment advice on a blog from a random person. I would constantly send notes to the judge from the dilberation room in hopes they would be read in court, something like this “the jury has requested 12 large bats with the words “dummy stick” written on them so they may beat the plaintiff senseless.” [/quote]

I would have to keep sending notes apologizing for laughing out loud in court, snickering, spitting out water as I gag on the uttuer stupidity while drinking, and generally being a jackass. And I would request that my bat have “SENSE” written on it so that I could beat some ‘sense’ into the idiot who thought random blog reply’s was good investment advice.

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=temeculaguy]
Purporting to be an expert and stating one’s credentials, then giving advice known to the author to be untrue, harmful or misleading is one thing. But us yahoos giving our opinions is a risk I’m willing to take and something that our constitution and laws are designed to protect. Many a man and woman have given their lives to protect this freedom, it’s our responsibility to exercise it.[/quote]

I agree*

* Statement not to be construed as legal advice. The author provides no warranty to the authenticity or validity of any statements posted herein. Statements are made for author’s personal amusement and are not to be construed as investment advice. May cause itching, burning, rash, and gas with oily discharge. Seek immediate medical attention if you have an erection lasting longer than 4 hours. [/quote]

LOL, that last cavat was perfect.

[DWCAP]

[quote=temeculaguy]Wouldn’t you just love to be a juror if someone sued for bad investment advice on a blog from a random person. I would constantly send notes to the judge from the dilberation room in hopes they would be read in court, something like this “the jury has requested 12 large bats with the words “dummy stick” written on them so they may beat the plaintiff senseless.” [/quote]

I would have to keep sending notes apologizing for laughing out loud in court, snickering, spitting out water as I gag on the uttuer stupidity while drinking, and generally being a jackass. And I would request that my bat have “SENSE” written on it so that I could beat some ‘sense’ into the idiot who thought random blog reply’s was good investment advice.

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=temeculaguy]
Purporting to be an expert and stating one’s credentials, then giving advice known to the author to be untrue, harmful or misleading is one thing. But us yahoos giving our opinions is a risk I’m willing to take and something that our constitution and laws are designed to protect. Many a man and woman have given their lives to protect this freedom, it’s our responsibility to exercise it.[/quote]

I agree*

* Statement not to be construed as legal advice. The author provides no warranty to the authenticity or validity of any statements posted herein. Statements are made for author’s personal amusement and are not to be construed as investment advice. May cause itching, burning, rash, and gas with oily discharge. Seek immediate medical attention if you have an erection lasting longer than 4 hours. [/quote]

LOL, that last cavat was perfect.

[DWCAP]

[quote=temeculaguy]Wouldn’t you just love to be a juror if someone sued for bad investment advice on a blog from a random person. I would constantly send notes to the judge from the dilberation room in hopes they would be read in court, something like this “the jury has requested 12 large bats with the words “dummy stick” written on them so they may beat the plaintiff senseless.” [/quote]

I would have to keep sending notes apologizing for laughing out loud in court, snickering, spitting out water as I gag on the uttuer stupidity while drinking, and generally being a jackass. And I would request that my bat have “SENSE” written on it so that I could beat some ‘sense’ into the idiot who thought random blog reply’s was good investment advice.

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=temeculaguy]
Purporting to be an expert and stating one’s credentials, then giving advice known to the author to be untrue, harmful or misleading is one thing. But us yahoos giving our opinions is a risk I’m willing to take and something that our constitution and laws are designed to protect. Many a man and woman have given their lives to protect this freedom, it’s our responsibility to exercise it.[/quote]

I agree*

* Statement not to be construed as legal advice. The author provides no warranty to the authenticity or validity of any statements posted herein. Statements are made for author’s personal amusement and are not to be construed as investment advice. May cause itching, burning, rash, and gas with oily discharge. Seek immediate medical attention if you have an erection lasting longer than 4 hours. [/quote]

LOL, that last cavat was perfect.

[Author]

Posts