[Dino]

Don’t believe the media hype…the worst of the slump is over, but don’t expect the market to turn around for a while. Sure, we’ll still see both sales and prices decline over the next year or two as housing settles into normal market conditions. Look for about 3-4% in San Diego over the next year (a bit more in parts of LA and Orange County)and it’s true, Vegas will get hit harder than most areas, but the doom and gloom projected by most on this blog may be over-stated. Most, if not all, respected housing economists don’t see it happening. Don’t rely on the real estate industry either, though. They’re obviously biased.

That being said, is it a good time to get into the industry? I would say no, unless it’s something you want to do long term. Again, it’s true that many agents are struggling right now and I expect many to leave the industry. Loan officers, too. I would talk to a few brokers and see what they have to say.

Finally, agents have to work for a broker. You will get your RE sales license and go work for a broker. You will be considered a real estate agent at that point. Later, you can get your brokers license if you want. I hope that helps.

[Dino]

Had hoped to get some good econo-housing discussion going, but this thread has turned into a band-wagon bashing session. Rich, could you do some technical thing here and change the title of this thread to “PS Sucks” and let everyone who has been wanting to vent, get it out of their system? That way the rest of us who are interested in discussing housing issues can start our own thread. This one has gotten boring. Late.

[Dino]

Thanks Heavyduty for getting us back to the original topic. Regarding your suggested strategy,

“When ‘Mr. Average Joe’ says that R.E. is a bad investment – then it’s time to buy,”

I’m not so sure. It seems a lot of folks are skeptical of the market as it stands now. Are you suggesting now may be a good time to buy, then? If I thought the market were going to decline another 3% to 5%, I probably would. I could handle small short term losses, but according to Rich’s November articles in the Voice, we could be headed for a major drop still. Especially if we’re going to see a market decline similar to what we saw in the 90’s, say, another 10% to 15% drop in prices. That would be tough to stomach.

Rich, let me kow if I misunderstood your comparison to the 90’s market.

[Dino]

Of course, I mean that in a good way.

[Dino]

This is my first time on this blog…you guys are nuts.

[Dino]

I just received a voice mail from someone at Moodyseconomy.com. I contacted them because they were quoted in Fortune Mag regarding their 2007 Housing Market Monitor. They rate US cities in regards to house-price imbalances and provide housing market projections for 2007 for the top 100 US metropolitan areas. Interestingly, 6 of the top 10 cities for the largest drops in home prices will occur in California, according to them. Oddly enough, San Diego was not one of them.

The voice mail indicated that this is the first year Moody’s has put together such a report. I was hoping to find something a little more black and white. I’m sure there is something out there that has projected housing figures each year. Then, a report can be created to see how accurate the projections were. Similar information can be tracked pretty easily with securities, but I haven’t been able to find much on housing.

[Author]

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