[denverite]

IAU (ETF that tracks gold price) is near alltime-high. It is still in a strong uptrend.

[denverite]

IAU (ETF that tracks gold price) is near alltime-high. It is still in a strong uptrend.

[denverite]

IAU (ETF that tracks gold price) is near alltime-high. It is still in a strong uptrend.

[denverite]

IAU (ETF that tracks gold price) is near alltime-high. It is still in a strong uptrend.

[denverite]

IAU (ETF that tracks gold price) is near alltime-high. It is still in a strong uptrend.

[denverite]

Having been overseas 2005-2007, and now living in Denver, I have used several approaches to track SD and Ventura RE from afar. Here is my 2 cents.

realtor.com, ziprealty.com (# of listings within a given price range/area). I know they don’t provide all listings for the general public, but I think it’s the trend that counts. From what I can see, there has been about a doubling of the number of houses (600-900K range) on the market in the North County area since 9/07.

Zillow (valuations for 12 “Favorite Homes” are tracked over time. In absolute terms, this might not be all that useful, but I follow the peak/current price trend). I was wondering if you (as local observers) corroborate that Zillow relative valuation pretty much mirrors the situation on the ground, especially for a given property. Also, does anyone know how often Zillow (peridically) updates their zestimates.

Uhaul truck rental prices (to/from SD to various other parts of the country) – has been about 3.3:1 ratio to move out of SD (vs. move to) for the last 2 years. I guess if that ratio moves higher for a sustained period, it might be a somewhat useful indicator.

Well, maybe 1 cent worth.

[denverite]

Having been overseas 2005-2007, and now living in Denver, I have used several approaches to track SD and Ventura RE from afar. Here is my 2 cents.

realtor.com, ziprealty.com (# of listings within a given price range/area). I know they don’t provide all listings for the general public, but I think it’s the trend that counts. From what I can see, there has been about a doubling of the number of houses (600-900K range) on the market in the North County area since 9/07.

Zillow (valuations for 12 “Favorite Homes” are tracked over time. In absolute terms, this might not be all that useful, but I follow the peak/current price trend). I was wondering if you (as local observers) corroborate that Zillow relative valuation pretty much mirrors the situation on the ground, especially for a given property. Also, does anyone know how often Zillow (peridically) updates their zestimates.

Uhaul truck rental prices (to/from SD to various other parts of the country) – has been about 3.3:1 ratio to move out of SD (vs. move to) for the last 2 years. I guess if that ratio moves higher for a sustained period, it might be a somewhat useful indicator.

Well, maybe 1 cent worth.

[denverite]

Having been overseas 2005-2007, and now living in Denver, I have used several approaches to track SD and Ventura RE from afar. Here is my 2 cents.

realtor.com, ziprealty.com (# of listings within a given price range/area). I know they don’t provide all listings for the general public, but I think it’s the trend that counts. From what I can see, there has been about a doubling of the number of houses (600-900K range) on the market in the North County area since 9/07.

Zillow (valuations for 12 “Favorite Homes” are tracked over time. In absolute terms, this might not be all that useful, but I follow the peak/current price trend). I was wondering if you (as local observers) corroborate that Zillow relative valuation pretty much mirrors the situation on the ground, especially for a given property. Also, does anyone know how often Zillow (peridically) updates their zestimates.

Uhaul truck rental prices (to/from SD to various other parts of the country) – has been about 3.3:1 ratio to move out of SD (vs. move to) for the last 2 years. I guess if that ratio moves higher for a sustained period, it might be a somewhat useful indicator.

Well, maybe 1 cent worth.

[denverite]

Having been overseas 2005-2007, and now living in Denver, I have used several approaches to track SD and Ventura RE from afar. Here is my 2 cents.

realtor.com, ziprealty.com (# of listings within a given price range/area). I know they don’t provide all listings for the general public, but I think it’s the trend that counts. From what I can see, there has been about a doubling of the number of houses (600-900K range) on the market in the North County area since 9/07.

Zillow (valuations for 12 “Favorite Homes” are tracked over time. In absolute terms, this might not be all that useful, but I follow the peak/current price trend). I was wondering if you (as local observers) corroborate that Zillow relative valuation pretty much mirrors the situation on the ground, especially for a given property. Also, does anyone know how often Zillow (peridically) updates their zestimates.

Uhaul truck rental prices (to/from SD to various other parts of the country) – has been about 3.3:1 ratio to move out of SD (vs. move to) for the last 2 years. I guess if that ratio moves higher for a sustained period, it might be a somewhat useful indicator.

Well, maybe 1 cent worth.

[denverite]

Having been overseas 2005-2007, and now living in Denver, I have used several approaches to track SD and Ventura RE from afar. Here is my 2 cents.

realtor.com, ziprealty.com (# of listings within a given price range/area). I know they don’t provide all listings for the general public, but I think it’s the trend that counts. From what I can see, there has been about a doubling of the number of houses (600-900K range) on the market in the North County area since 9/07.

Zillow (valuations for 12 “Favorite Homes” are tracked over time. In absolute terms, this might not be all that useful, but I follow the peak/current price trend). I was wondering if you (as local observers) corroborate that Zillow relative valuation pretty much mirrors the situation on the ground, especially for a given property. Also, does anyone know how often Zillow (peridically) updates their zestimates.

Uhaul truck rental prices (to/from SD to various other parts of the country) – has been about 3.3:1 ratio to move out of SD (vs. move to) for the last 2 years. I guess if that ratio moves higher for a sustained period, it might be a somewhat useful indicator.

Well, maybe 1 cent worth.

[denverite]

Continued smallish negative growth (5-10%) in house prices are presented by SDrealtor in his SD “areas of interest” in 2007 and suggests the same for 2008. Perhaps my bias toward a sizable overall correction colors my simple analysis. It would take ~6.5 years @ 7.5% yearly depreciation vs. ~4 years @ 12% YOY price depreciation to accumulate a 40% reduction. I just don’t think that SD is capable of dropping continuously for almost 7 years. It does look feasible that we could see a cumulative 40% decline off the peak. Based on this, I would expect an average of 10-12% YOY declines until 2011 or so. If California goes into recession, which appears very likely, negative valuation should should increase significantly for that period. Of course, the big wildcard is inflation.

SDRealtor – GREAT observations/analysis; nice to see an honest businessman.

Looking to return to CA coastal when the dust settles.

[denverite]

Continued smallish negative growth (5-10%) in house prices are presented by SDrealtor in his SD “areas of interest” in 2007 and suggests the same for 2008. Perhaps my bias toward a sizable overall correction colors my simple analysis. It would take ~6.5 years @ 7.5% yearly depreciation vs. ~4 years @ 12% YOY price depreciation to accumulate a 40% reduction. I just don’t think that SD is capable of dropping continuously for almost 7 years. It does look feasible that we could see a cumulative 40% decline off the peak. Based on this, I would expect an average of 10-12% YOY declines until 2011 or so. If California goes into recession, which appears very likely, negative valuation should should increase significantly for that period. Of course, the big wildcard is inflation.

SDRealtor – GREAT observations/analysis; nice to see an honest businessman.

Looking to return to CA coastal when the dust settles.

[denverite]

Continued smallish negative growth (5-10%) in house prices are presented by SDrealtor in his SD “areas of interest” in 2007 and suggests the same for 2008. Perhaps my bias toward a sizable overall correction colors my simple analysis. It would take ~6.5 years @ 7.5% yearly depreciation vs. ~4 years @ 12% YOY price depreciation to accumulate a 40% reduction. I just don’t think that SD is capable of dropping continuously for almost 7 years. It does look feasible that we could see a cumulative 40% decline off the peak. Based on this, I would expect an average of 10-12% YOY declines until 2011 or so. If California goes into recession, which appears very likely, negative valuation should should increase significantly for that period. Of course, the big wildcard is inflation.

SDRealtor – GREAT observations/analysis; nice to see an honest businessman.

Looking to return to CA coastal when the dust settles.

[denverite]

Continued smallish negative growth (5-10%) in house prices are presented by SDrealtor in his SD “areas of interest” in 2007 and suggests the same for 2008. Perhaps my bias toward a sizable overall correction colors my simple analysis. It would take ~6.5 years @ 7.5% yearly depreciation vs. ~4 years @ 12% YOY price depreciation to accumulate a 40% reduction. I just don’t think that SD is capable of dropping continuously for almost 7 years. It does look feasible that we could see a cumulative 40% decline off the peak. Based on this, I would expect an average of 10-12% YOY declines until 2011 or so. If California goes into recession, which appears very likely, negative valuation should should increase significantly for that period. Of course, the big wildcard is inflation.

SDRealtor – GREAT observations/analysis; nice to see an honest businessman.

Looking to return to CA coastal when the dust settles.

[denverite]

Continued smallish negative growth (5-10%) in house prices are presented by SDrealtor in his SD “areas of interest” in 2007 and suggests the same for 2008. Perhaps my bias toward a sizable overall correction colors my simple analysis. It would take ~6.5 years @ 7.5% yearly depreciation vs. ~4 years @ 12% YOY price depreciation to accumulate a 40% reduction. I just don’t think that SD is capable of dropping continuously for almost 7 years. It does look feasible that we could see a cumulative 40% decline off the peak. Based on this, I would expect an average of 10-12% YOY declines until 2011 or so. If California goes into recession, which appears very likely, negative valuation should should increase significantly for that period. Of course, the big wildcard is inflation.

SDRealtor – GREAT observations/analysis; nice to see an honest businessman.

Looking to return to CA coastal when the dust settles.

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