[davelj]

Bottom line: If the government is going to hand out free lunches, there will be great demand for such lunches. And people will go to great lengths to try to get at such free lunches.

[davelj]

Bottom line: If the government is going to hand out free lunches, there will be great demand for such lunches. And people will go to great lengths to try to get at such free lunches.

[davelj]

Bottom line: If the government is going to hand out free lunches, there will be great demand for such lunches. And people will go to great lengths to try to get at such free lunches.

[davelj]

Bottom line: If the government is going to hand out free lunches, there will be great demand for such lunches. And people will go to great lengths to try to get at such free lunches.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)

Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.

[/quote]

I’ll defend Chris for a moment here. In the past (2006/2007) he put up several trading predictions most of which played out pretty much as he predicted. I remember such things because I don’t see it too often and I’m actually a professional investor, although not a trader by any means (I’m in private equity). So, at least where the past is concerned, Chris has put up his predictions – and been correct enough for me to take note. Now, I haven’t seen any predictions this year, nor do I know if his previous predictions were more luck than strategy – that’s beyond the scope of this post. But he’s made some good calls in the past – calls that I thought at the time were unconventional.

Anyhow, I’m not a trader. I’m an arbiter of business value. I think trading is really hard. Determining the value of a business – if you understand that business extremely well – is a lot easier, to my way of thinking. And there are plenty of businesses out there that aren’t too hard to understand if you put the work in. And if you do your due diligence, buy the business right, and have a good bit of patience, things tend to work out well over time. That’s just an observation… worth exactly what you paid for it.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)

Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.

[/quote]

I’ll defend Chris for a moment here. In the past (2006/2007) he put up several trading predictions most of which played out pretty much as he predicted. I remember such things because I don’t see it too often and I’m actually a professional investor, although not a trader by any means (I’m in private equity). So, at least where the past is concerned, Chris has put up his predictions – and been correct enough for me to take note. Now, I haven’t seen any predictions this year, nor do I know if his previous predictions were more luck than strategy – that’s beyond the scope of this post. But he’s made some good calls in the past – calls that I thought at the time were unconventional.

Anyhow, I’m not a trader. I’m an arbiter of business value. I think trading is really hard. Determining the value of a business – if you understand that business extremely well – is a lot easier, to my way of thinking. And there are plenty of businesses out there that aren’t too hard to understand if you put the work in. And if you do your due diligence, buy the business right, and have a good bit of patience, things tend to work out well over time. That’s just an observation… worth exactly what you paid for it.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)

Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.

[/quote]

I’ll defend Chris for a moment here. In the past (2006/2007) he put up several trading predictions most of which played out pretty much as he predicted. I remember such things because I don’t see it too often and I’m actually a professional investor, although not a trader by any means (I’m in private equity). So, at least where the past is concerned, Chris has put up his predictions – and been correct enough for me to take note. Now, I haven’t seen any predictions this year, nor do I know if his previous predictions were more luck than strategy – that’s beyond the scope of this post. But he’s made some good calls in the past – calls that I thought at the time were unconventional.

Anyhow, I’m not a trader. I’m an arbiter of business value. I think trading is really hard. Determining the value of a business – if you understand that business extremely well – is a lot easier, to my way of thinking. And there are plenty of businesses out there that aren’t too hard to understand if you put the work in. And if you do your due diligence, buy the business right, and have a good bit of patience, things tend to work out well over time. That’s just an observation… worth exactly what you paid for it.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)

Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.

[/quote]

I’ll defend Chris for a moment here. In the past (2006/2007) he put up several trading predictions most of which played out pretty much as he predicted. I remember such things because I don’t see it too often and I’m actually a professional investor, although not a trader by any means (I’m in private equity). So, at least where the past is concerned, Chris has put up his predictions – and been correct enough for me to take note. Now, I haven’t seen any predictions this year, nor do I know if his previous predictions were more luck than strategy – that’s beyond the scope of this post. But he’s made some good calls in the past – calls that I thought at the time were unconventional.

Anyhow, I’m not a trader. I’m an arbiter of business value. I think trading is really hard. Determining the value of a business – if you understand that business extremely well – is a lot easier, to my way of thinking. And there are plenty of businesses out there that aren’t too hard to understand if you put the work in. And if you do your due diligence, buy the business right, and have a good bit of patience, things tend to work out well over time. That’s just an observation… worth exactly what you paid for it.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)

Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.

[/quote]

I’ll defend Chris for a moment here. In the past (2006/2007) he put up several trading predictions most of which played out pretty much as he predicted. I remember such things because I don’t see it too often and I’m actually a professional investor, although not a trader by any means (I’m in private equity). So, at least where the past is concerned, Chris has put up his predictions – and been correct enough for me to take note. Now, I haven’t seen any predictions this year, nor do I know if his previous predictions were more luck than strategy – that’s beyond the scope of this post. But he’s made some good calls in the past – calls that I thought at the time were unconventional.

Anyhow, I’m not a trader. I’m an arbiter of business value. I think trading is really hard. Determining the value of a business – if you understand that business extremely well – is a lot easier, to my way of thinking. And there are plenty of businesses out there that aren’t too hard to understand if you put the work in. And if you do your due diligence, buy the business right, and have a good bit of patience, things tend to work out well over time. That’s just an observation… worth exactly what you paid for it.

[davelj]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Never thought I would see this day. Shiller claims stocks are roughly at fair value from a long-term earnings point of view. Now, he expects significant downside, but …

“If you buy now and wake up in 10 years, you’ll probably get a return around the historic average,” said Yale economist Robert Shiller.
[/quote]

Yep, this makes sense. It mirrors what Jeremy Grantham has been saying recently.

If you start with a 3% dividend yield, normalize earnings and get 5% annualized earnings growth with a normalized P/E of 14-15, you wake up with an 8% annualized return on stocks over the next decade. This compares to the 10-Year Treasury yield of 4%. 400 bps of equity risk premium is as good as we’ve seen in 20 years.

I agree that stocks will head lower at some point, but if you’re looking out long term, the risk-return trade-off for stocks versus bonds is pretty good right now. That’s just the math speaking.

[davelj]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Never thought I would see this day. Shiller claims stocks are roughly at fair value from a long-term earnings point of view. Now, he expects significant downside, but …

“If you buy now and wake up in 10 years, you’ll probably get a return around the historic average,” said Yale economist Robert Shiller.
[/quote]

Yep, this makes sense. It mirrors what Jeremy Grantham has been saying recently.

If you start with a 3% dividend yield, normalize earnings and get 5% annualized earnings growth with a normalized P/E of 14-15, you wake up with an 8% annualized return on stocks over the next decade. This compares to the 10-Year Treasury yield of 4%. 400 bps of equity risk premium is as good as we’ve seen in 20 years.

I agree that stocks will head lower at some point, but if you’re looking out long term, the risk-return trade-off for stocks versus bonds is pretty good right now. That’s just the math speaking.

[davelj]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Never thought I would see this day. Shiller claims stocks are roughly at fair value from a long-term earnings point of view. Now, he expects significant downside, but …

“If you buy now and wake up in 10 years, you’ll probably get a return around the historic average,” said Yale economist Robert Shiller.
[/quote]

Yep, this makes sense. It mirrors what Jeremy Grantham has been saying recently.

If you start with a 3% dividend yield, normalize earnings and get 5% annualized earnings growth with a normalized P/E of 14-15, you wake up with an 8% annualized return on stocks over the next decade. This compares to the 10-Year Treasury yield of 4%. 400 bps of equity risk premium is as good as we’ve seen in 20 years.

I agree that stocks will head lower at some point, but if you’re looking out long term, the risk-return trade-off for stocks versus bonds is pretty good right now. That’s just the math speaking.

[davelj]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Never thought I would see this day. Shiller claims stocks are roughly at fair value from a long-term earnings point of view. Now, he expects significant downside, but …

“If you buy now and wake up in 10 years, you’ll probably get a return around the historic average,” said Yale economist Robert Shiller.
[/quote]

Yep, this makes sense. It mirrors what Jeremy Grantham has been saying recently.

If you start with a 3% dividend yield, normalize earnings and get 5% annualized earnings growth with a normalized P/E of 14-15, you wake up with an 8% annualized return on stocks over the next decade. This compares to the 10-Year Treasury yield of 4%. 400 bps of equity risk premium is as good as we’ve seen in 20 years.

I agree that stocks will head lower at some point, but if you’re looking out long term, the risk-return trade-off for stocks versus bonds is pretty good right now. That’s just the math speaking.

[davelj]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Never thought I would see this day. Shiller claims stocks are roughly at fair value from a long-term earnings point of view. Now, he expects significant downside, but …

“If you buy now and wake up in 10 years, you’ll probably get a return around the historic average,” said Yale economist Robert Shiller.
[/quote]

Yep, this makes sense. It mirrors what Jeremy Grantham has been saying recently.

If you start with a 3% dividend yield, normalize earnings and get 5% annualized earnings growth with a normalized P/E of 14-15, you wake up with an 8% annualized return on stocks over the next decade. This compares to the 10-Year Treasury yield of 4%. 400 bps of equity risk premium is as good as we’ve seen in 20 years.

I agree that stocks will head lower at some point, but if you’re looking out long term, the risk-return trade-off for stocks versus bonds is pretty good right now. That’s just the math speaking.

[davelj]

[quote=urbanrealtor][quote=jficquette][quote=urbanrealtor][quote=jficquette][quote=urbanrealtor][quote=jficquette]

LOL so you are going to vote for Castro Jr even though you are libertarian?? Socialism is the opposite of libertarianism. Something doesn’t add up with your post.

John

[/quote]

Sorry dude his views are not unique.

Also, its a bit hyperbolic to call him Castro Jr.

If you have a better pick of the 2, who would it be?

Cuz most people think McCain sucks.
[/quote]

Pick between Castro and Obama? Probably Castro since at least he is honest about his views.

John[/quote]

I was saying between McCain and Obama but your assertion that Castro would be better than Obama really gives a clue as to how seriously you take yourself.[/quote]

No it shows what Obama really is and your’re too blind to see it.

John
[/quote]
I have lived under a liberal president and visited communist countries (Cuba, in fact). The assertion that being liberal is to the left of Communist is ignorant and not supportable.

John you just say stuff that is so crazy that you can’t be taken seriously.[/quote]

I’m a small-l libertarian and I’m voting for Obama as well. I’ve never voted for a democrat and I rarely vote republican. I generally vote for the libertarian or I write in a candidate. Normally, Obama’s economic positions wouldn’t appeal to me. But unfortunately we’ve gotten ourselves into a position where I think we need a person that “the masses” feel comfortable with and have some confidence in. Yeah, he’ll probably raise taxes and do plenty of other things that I won’t like too much, but… frankly, Bush and his band of republican morons have fucked things up so badly that the democrats actually deserve a shot to run things for a while. Even if it doesn’t work out. The people want to give Obama a shot. Let him have it. I doubt it will be the disaster the republicans think it will be – although it certainly won’t be the panacea that democrats are hoping for either. But, McCain? Please. I almost threw my shoe at the TV last night when he said, “We need to stop these house prices from falling and I think my economic program will do that.” Sorry, I just can’t vote for anyone that’s that clueless. At least Paul Volcker – the last real Fed Chairman that we’ve had – has Obama’s ear. That trumps anything that I’ve seen out of McCain.

[Author]

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