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Daniel
ParticipantdesmoJ,
You got a nice, catchy title for you thread. Good job! I happen to agree that, housing aside, many of the economics forecasts here are likely to be far off the mark. It’s easy to get carried away and to think that the sky is falling.
ParticipantEnrollment in charter schools is up by about 1,000 though, so the overall decrease is only about half the 2,200 noted. And they say nothing about private schools.
I’m not surprised (I don’t think anyone is) by a decrease this year. But I would be quite surprised if it turned out that we had an overall decrease for 5 years in a row. After all, in 2001-2003, the city was still adding population pretty fast. I think the explanation is that public schools lost “market share” during this time to other types of schools.
October 2, 2006 at 7:48 PM in reply to: People still buying – masses have no clue about bubble #37077ParticipantPasadena Broker said…
“Sad to say this, but for most of you on this board, prices will have to come down, what, 40%, before you’ll grace the real estate market with your money?”
For some, perhaps, for most, I’m not so sure. There are vocal people here convinced that they’ll pick up stuff for a song “when the big crash comes”. But there are lots of others (me included) who just simply think that it’s wiser to wait than to rush in. I would very much like to buy next year at 30% off (highly unlikely), but I can settle for buying 5 years down the road at roughly the same price as today. In the meantime I rent a house that is no different in size, shape, or form from the one I would buy. So I risk missing out on the potential upside over the next 5 years, right? Well, it’s a calculated risk I’m willing to take.
ParticipantThanks for posting your experience, socalarm. Much appreciated.
A bit off-topic (but still in the “trying to move a house” category), here is an e-mail I received today from the sales office at Del Sur (that’s a new place NE of Carmel Valley that’s been mentioned here before):
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Great news from Cassero @ Del Sur!
If you are non contingent and able to close escrow by November 24, 2006, we have some fantastic values for you. In addition to our price adjustments we are including flooring (up to $25,000) as well as a lender incentive of $15,000. The lender incentive can be used to buy down the interest rates, closing costs or some options like epoxy flooring. Our homes have lots of upgrades already included in the prices.These are some of the exceptional values we are offering for our paired Cassero homes.
Homesite 173-4 Plan 2 Spanish Exterior – Was priced at $781,900 New Price $630,900!
Homesite 174-5 Plan 1 Prairie Exterior – Was priced at $767,900 New Price $594,900! Extra large Yard!
Homesite 175-8 Plan 1 Monterrey Exterior – Was priced at $749,900 New Price $581,900!
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I’d say that they’re pretty aggressive.ParticipantI don’t see a problem with PS posting often (even though I’ve been known to disagree with her on some issues). What is a bit of a problem is the format of this blog, where new threads keep pushing old ones off the list.
My suggestion: make the “Active forum topics” list a bit longer. For example, everything that had a single post in the last day (that would be brand new threads) AND ALSO everything that had at least 10 posts in the past 3 days (that would be active topics that may otherwise fall off the radar).
I almost never go back to the threads that fall off (OK, I’m lazy). For all I know, questions may have been directed to me on those threads, and I never replied.
ParticipantDeleted
Participant“Maybe it’s a good way for realtors to get sales leads.”
You’re right on. I’ve never been to an open house in my neighborhood (as a looky-loo) without the agent offering his/her services as my buyer’s agent.
ParticipantFully agree with PerryChase.
ParticipantI posted this answer at the end of the thread that brought up this topic (“Did High Tech Incomes…”). I see that it’s now spawned a new thread, so I’m going to re-post it here, just to make it visible:
Powayseller asked…
“On a related note, why did SD housing prices rise higher than Austin’s?”
My answer has been and will be all along: zoning and building restrictions. This is the only thing that all bubble areas have in common, and differ markedly from non-bubble areas. Income gap? No, look at San Diego and Austin. Fresno isn’t full of high rollers, either. Sunshine tax? No, Seattle and Boston are bubblicious despite the weather. Quality of life? There are very nice cities in Colorado and Utah that have sane prices. And there are overpriced hellholes all over inland California.
But: all bubble areas have city or state governments that place a lot of restrictions on buiding (environmental studies, long and expensive approvals, etc). Non-bubble areas do not. Here’s your answer.
Incidentally, this may have something to do with the political affiliation of the population (democrats tend to favor slow-growth policies, while republicans tend to let the free market build whatever it wants). That makes blue states more prone to RE bubbles. Since political affiliation also correlates with religion, voila, you have your explanation for the post above!
ParticipantPowayseller asked…
“On a related note, why did SD housing prices rise higher than Austin’s?”
My answer has been and will be all along: zoning and building restrictions. This is the only thing that all bubble areas have in common, and differ markedly from non-bubble areas. Income gap? No, look at San Diego and Austin. Fresno isn’t full of high rollers, either. Sunshine tax? No, Seattle and Boston are bubblicious despite the weather. Quality of life? There are very nice cities in Colorado and Utah that have sane prices. And there are overpriced hellholes all over inland California.
But: all bubble areas have city or state governments that place a lot of restrictions on buiding (environmental studies, long and expensive approvals, etc). Non-bubble areas do not. Here’s your answer.
Incidentally, this may have something to do with the political affiliation of the population (democrats tend to favor slow-growth policies, while republicans tend to let the free market build whatever it wants). That makes blue states more prone to RE bubbles. Since political affiliation also correlates with religion, voila, you have your explanation for the post above!
ParticipantBoy, will you get a thousand replies to your post…I’ll try to be first, because everybody else following will disagree with me, so it’s better that I start.
My view: I think it’s entirely possible that home prices won’t decrease by much, but there are substantial risks that they will. You may believe that home prices 5 years from now will be the same, or 5% down, or 50% down, or any percentage you like. You may even entertain the possibility that they will move slightly up, say 5%. In any case, unless you believe that they will SHARPLY go up (and nobody in their right mind believes that today), it is still better to rent than to buy, because carrying costs are higher when buying (which is historically abnormal, as it is usually cheaper to buy than rent).
So it’s all about risk, in my view. Today, the risk of being burned by the downside is higher than the risk of missing out on the upside, so waiting out is probably best.
ParticipantPowayseller said…
“woodrow and Daniel, the personal insults directed at me in the other thread was a joke!”
Wow, I didn’t visit this site for a while, and this thing got totally out of control! I feel ostracized like good docteur here. Well, PS, let’s be friends. I regret it if you perceived my little comment as an “insult”. And, believe me, regarding fights, I have neither the energy nor the desire to start one with you. I apologize for the incident and will try to keep in mind your sensibilities next time I post. Peace, OK?
ParticipantNCJim,
I think we all know that that sort of nuance escapes PS. Words like might/may/will seem to have the same meaning to her. But it’s part of her charm, wouldn’t you say? It took me awhile, but I got used to it.
ParticipantI live in a pretty nice gated community (rent). Hate the gates, though. They’re such a nuisance; every time someone visits (friends, maid, cable guy, furniture delivery guy, etc), I have to explain them how to call me up from the gate or give them the entry code. If I take a walk in the neighborhood and want to exit through the back gate, I have to remember to take the gate key with me, because otherwise I won’t be able to get out.
At the end of an open house last week-end, some hapless visitors on foot were left stranded on the inside, with no way of getting out (you can exit in a car, but the automatic gate won’t open for pedestrians). No big deal (they waited for perhaps 5 minutes for someone (me) to pass by to open the gate), but still annoying, nonetheless.
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