[cyphire]

Hey Rustico, et al.

Just completed my move from the beach to Bird Rock. Hope that this neighborhood fulfills my wishes at this point. Much of the unpacking is done, but much is left to do.

2 years here and then I buy a house. Thats the plan and I’m working it!

Wow is my back tired.

[cyphire]

I agree— I think that he bought at the worst possible time – but if he is willing to risk the market drop to not be on the sidelines for a few years thats his choice. It’s a tough decision. If he is going to stay there for the next 10-20 years its not a dumb move. No one absolutely knows where prices are going – they could stay roughly flat for the next x years in which case he has his shelter and isn’t renting. If prices go down significantly (Which I think will happen) then he paid a huge extra fee for the convenience of buying now.

Personally I think that while economically it was a reasonable move, he will be kicking himself when he realizes that he spent an extra couple of hundred thousand to live in a house for a couple of years. If he could buy the same house in 2-3 years for 200K less – then it wasn’t the best move!

[cyphire]

I agree— I think that he bought at the worst possible time – but if he is willing to risk the market drop to not be on the sidelines for a few years thats his choice. It’s a tough decision. If he is going to stay there for the next 10-20 years its not a dumb move. No one absolutely knows where prices are going – they could stay roughly flat for the next x years in which case he has his shelter and isn’t renting. If prices go down significantly (Which I think will happen) then he paid a huge extra fee for the convenience of buying now.

Personally I think that while economically it was a reasonable move, he will be kicking himself when he realizes that he spent an extra couple of hundred thousand to live in a house for a couple of years. If he could buy the same house in 2-3 years for 200K less – then it wasn’t the best move!

[cyphire]

LateSummer mentions trends – this bears serious watching. This market took 15 years to go up…. Why would we expect it to drop so suddenly? Especially as the data is lagging and inventory is building… It takes a long time to sell a house and houses are not selling so quickly yet. I was just looking in Del Mar to rent (we ended up in La Jolla) and we also looked at some houses.

The big problem is that the houses are tulips. Nice small houses in Del Mar (east of the 101 and west of the 5) built 30-40 years ago and remodeled are almost 2 million dollars.

We are buying tulips. We think that these prices are normal. Wait until these prices go back to where they were 10 years ago. If you say that can’t happen, I disagree.

There are more rich people then ever – but the wealthy buy special properties at the beach and in the hills with huge views, etc. Not 3 bedroom 3 bath homes with a partial view for 1.5 million dollars. These are reserved for the vast upper middle, middle middle class who will still be paying for them in 10 years at today’s inflated prices.

As the market comes down and the mob realizes that there is significant asset reduction, it will be harder and harder to make the decision to commit to these prices. We should expect that as prices come down there are still people who will buy. Most people can’t see trends, they don’t use a lot of logic when it comes to buying a house. As some previous posts have said – I wonder what they will be thinking in 6 months or a year. Or 3?

Why is it every time there is a bubble, people still buy on the way down? The funny thing is that even if you look at history and look at the data – we still can’t conceive that the market will head all the way down… Even though it’s been doing it (especially here in CA) as long as there have been homes.

Did the original native Americans have the same problem with their huts?

[cyphire]

LateSummer mentions trends – this bears serious watching. This market took 15 years to go up…. Why would we expect it to drop so suddenly? Especially as the data is lagging and inventory is building… It takes a long time to sell a house and houses are not selling so quickly yet. I was just looking in Del Mar to rent (we ended up in La Jolla) and we also looked at some houses.

The big problem is that the houses are tulips. Nice small houses in Del Mar (east of the 101 and west of the 5) built 30-40 years ago and remodeled are almost 2 million dollars.

We are buying tulips. We think that these prices are normal. Wait until these prices go back to where they were 10 years ago. If you say that can’t happen, I disagree.

There are more rich people then ever – but the wealthy buy special properties at the beach and in the hills with huge views, etc. Not 3 bedroom 3 bath homes with a partial view for 1.5 million dollars. These are reserved for the vast upper middle, middle middle class who will still be paying for them in 10 years at today’s inflated prices.

As the market comes down and the mob realizes that there is significant asset reduction, it will be harder and harder to make the decision to commit to these prices. We should expect that as prices come down there are still people who will buy. Most people can’t see trends, they don’t use a lot of logic when it comes to buying a house. As some previous posts have said – I wonder what they will be thinking in 6 months or a year. Or 3?

Why is it every time there is a bubble, people still buy on the way down? The funny thing is that even if you look at history and look at the data – we still can’t conceive that the market will head all the way down… Even though it’s been doing it (especially here in CA) as long as there have been homes.

Did the original native Americans have the same problem with their huts?

[cyphire]

My kids like Harry Potter. The difference is that they know it’s fiction. I got lots of life lessons from the books of Robert Heinlein and other great authors. If I started a church and called it PotterWorld and proclaimed Harry as god, most people would scoff at me. I would be ridiculed.

So imagine my dismay at being in a world where perfectly intelligent people insist that because their parents told them so that there is a God – and anyone who doesn’t believe is somehow wrong…

Seriously – I’m not against religion – people can believe anything they want – I’m against people not keeping it to themselves (They are starting to scare me). As it happens I don’t profess that Harry Potter is god, but if I did I would keep it to myself.

[cyphire]

My kids like Harry Potter. The difference is that they know it’s fiction. I got lots of life lessons from the books of Robert Heinlein and other great authors. If I started a church and called it PotterWorld and proclaimed Harry as god, most people would scoff at me. I would be ridiculed.

So imagine my dismay at being in a world where perfectly intelligent people insist that because their parents told them so that there is a God – and anyone who doesn’t believe is somehow wrong…

Seriously – I’m not against religion – people can believe anything they want – I’m against people not keeping it to themselves (They are starting to scare me). As it happens I don’t profess that Harry Potter is god, but if I did I would keep it to myself.

[cyphire]

LostKitty – It’s too bad you moved – you sound really cool – Upstate NY’s gain is our loss. I used to live in Upstate NY and trust me, they don’t appreciate you!

I also don’t care if Hillary prays or not. Personally a politicians stature in my eyes goes down each time they announce how important their faith is to them a)Because I don’t care b)because power is their faith (as PD stated) c)because they are probably lying to get elected.

That being said I keep vacillating about the lying – I think if a candidate was truthful they wouldn’t get elected and I’m hoping that they are playing the game so they can get elected and take down the bad guys. On the other hand Hillary and gang have somewhat become luke-warm republicans.

In Europe if a candidate ever proclaimed his/her faith to the media they wouldn’t be elected dog catcher. Europe has decided that faith is a personal matter and not part of politics and that any politician who panders to get elected is just that… a panderer.

Imagine if the media didn’t publish and promote articles on haircuts, candidate’s dogs, infidelity, church affiliations, cookie making, and all the other critical issues about our leaders and potential leaders – and gave all the attention by priority to actual issues and political positions?

The very fact that a moron like GW could get elected a second time (even by fraud) makes me weep for this country. I mean he is literally an idiot. People get the form of government they deserve. And unfortunately we are getting what we deserve right now.

Don’t hate Hillary for praying – as lost kitty says who cares? Don’t vote republican even if your vote makes the baby Jesus cry. Don’t be a hater. But fight the people who use hatred and fear to manipulate you (GW and his evil minions (Chaney, Rove, Rice, et. al)

[cyphire]

LostKitty – It’s too bad you moved – you sound really cool – Upstate NY’s gain is our loss. I used to live in Upstate NY and trust me, they don’t appreciate you!

I also don’t care if Hillary prays or not. Personally a politicians stature in my eyes goes down each time they announce how important their faith is to them a)Because I don’t care b)because power is their faith (as PD stated) c)because they are probably lying to get elected.

That being said I keep vacillating about the lying – I think if a candidate was truthful they wouldn’t get elected and I’m hoping that they are playing the game so they can get elected and take down the bad guys. On the other hand Hillary and gang have somewhat become luke-warm republicans.

In Europe if a candidate ever proclaimed his/her faith to the media they wouldn’t be elected dog catcher. Europe has decided that faith is a personal matter and not part of politics and that any politician who panders to get elected is just that… a panderer.

Imagine if the media didn’t publish and promote articles on haircuts, candidate’s dogs, infidelity, church affiliations, cookie making, and all the other critical issues about our leaders and potential leaders – and gave all the attention by priority to actual issues and political positions?

The very fact that a moron like GW could get elected a second time (even by fraud) makes me weep for this country. I mean he is literally an idiot. People get the form of government they deserve. And unfortunately we are getting what we deserve right now.

Don’t hate Hillary for praying – as lost kitty says who cares? Don’t vote republican even if your vote makes the baby Jesus cry. Don’t be a hater. But fight the people who use hatred and fear to manipulate you (GW and his evil minions (Chaney, Rove, Rice, et. al)

[cyphire]

LOL – it’s true… But whats funny is that kids dont’ really know when you are hypocritical. So my vote is to tell them what is right and then their opinions are formed properly before they realize that you don’t always walk the walk!

So true…

Both former owner and lostkitty are right… We do buy way to much stuff and our whole economy is based on it continuing. I’m wondering if the true key to economic prosperity is to resist the urge to buy, only purchase what you can afford to IN CASH, and dedicate a percentage of everything you make to savings – for your whole life.

If I only saved a dollar out of every 10 I’ve made so far – wow what a concept! On the other hand – I love the heated seats also… My dad always spent 110% more than he made – it forced him to keep making more and more money. If I can take the good stuff from him and not the bad money management – the rest is history!

[cyphire]

LOL – it’s true… But whats funny is that kids dont’ really know when you are hypocritical. So my vote is to tell them what is right and then their opinions are formed properly before they realize that you don’t always walk the walk!

So true…

Both former owner and lostkitty are right… We do buy way to much stuff and our whole economy is based on it continuing. I’m wondering if the true key to economic prosperity is to resist the urge to buy, only purchase what you can afford to IN CASH, and dedicate a percentage of everything you make to savings – for your whole life.

If I only saved a dollar out of every 10 I’ve made so far – wow what a concept! On the other hand – I love the heated seats also… My dad always spent 110% more than he made – it forced him to keep making more and more money. If I can take the good stuff from him and not the bad money management – the rest is history!

[cyphire]

No lostkitty – where did you post it?

Actually it’s pretty funny but I’m about to start a company which has a lot to do with that. Everyone tells me to check out that org – but i’m in the middle of a business transaction right now that I hope will culminate soon.

Also TechExec.

Thanks and send me an update…

[cyphire]

No lostkitty – where did you post it?

Actually it’s pretty funny but I’m about to start a company which has a lot to do with that. Everyone tells me to check out that org – but i’m in the middle of a business transaction right now that I hope will culminate soon.

Also TechExec.

Thanks and send me an update…

[cyphire]

Kudos to you kristinejm thats awesome.

I have one in public and one in private – I actually took my son out of the private school because it was a repressive and somewhat poor educational experience for us.

My daughter goes to private school and it’s not to keep her away from ‘bad kids’ (I went to public school) – just that it is a superior education if it’s the right kid and the right school. As the previous posts acknowledge – I’m more worried about ultra-rich kids with poor morals and parents who aren’t really parenting. Schools with too much money have their own set of problems.

I also took 2 semesters of Calculus in High School with college credit at public school and my parents wouldn’t accept anything less than an A.

Each school and each kid is different. It really comes down to how involved the parents are – you should be really proud of yourself and your daughter.

[cyphire]

Kudos to you kristinejm thats awesome.

I have one in public and one in private – I actually took my son out of the private school because it was a repressive and somewhat poor educational experience for us.

My daughter goes to private school and it’s not to keep her away from ‘bad kids’ (I went to public school) – just that it is a superior education if it’s the right kid and the right school. As the previous posts acknowledge – I’m more worried about ultra-rich kids with poor morals and parents who aren’t really parenting. Schools with too much money have their own set of problems.

I also took 2 semesters of Calculus in High School with college credit at public school and my parents wouldn’t accept anything less than an A.

Each school and each kid is different. It really comes down to how involved the parents are – you should be really proud of yourself and your daughter.

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