[cyphire]

I don’t get it…. Why would prices only go to 2002 levels? This makes no sense to me. I hate to be the gloom and doomer – but I don’t think that 2002 prices are realistic.

Look at the Case-Shiller Graph.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif

I think that prices will go down to about 1998 levels. Remember, there were people bailing on SD home prices in the early 2000’s. There were articles about how crazy prices were. We bought in Carmel Valley in 2000. Paid 810K for a house which we sold for 1.4M in 04. Now a neighbor has his house up for 1.7M. 810K was crazy for that house in 2000. Forget about 1.2 in 2002. Do you really think that prices which went up by 15-20% each year will then only fall back to 2002?

My house in CV was 450K in 1995. In 2000 it was 810K. Again remember, that we considered (and everyone else I knew) that 810K was a crazy large amount of money for that house.

I am AMAZED at the reluctance of people believing that they are in a bubble, even when it is bursting. I am amazed at how people believe that with 1-3% interest rates (2002?) that this is a normal part of the market. That house should be 700K… It will be 700K again. 2002 prices were still brutally above where they should have been.

First of all — DON’T believe the CRAP you are hearing in the papers and on TV. The “Experts” claim that prices will still fall be a few percent until 2008-9. Now some are saying 2010. These are the same experts which said that we would have a flat market this year (and recover by the end of 2007).

Scenario. People are incredibly afraid of real estate right now. Only idiots are buying houses now (getting that free kitchen and the right to own a mortgage!). This will continue as more and more fallout in the market happens. Do you really think that the market has fallen? It is just DEAD. Falling happens over time, just as rising prices do. It will go down and down. Equity will be DESTROYED. This will savage the economy. Prices will continue to fall to the affordability level.

Also realize that the Case-Shiller graph is the NATIONAL average…. Our graph would have a much higher amplitude tha n the national graph. Case shiller shows that through 2006 we were 200% growth…. In reality this boom has gone up almost 300%… There is NO reason that it couldn’t even go negative as the economy goes into a depression. If you think that this is impossible – just look at history…

I am not hoping for this, I am just afraid of this.

[cyphire]

I think that somewhat it is still a cottage industry – the cost of labor and installation seems to be a sticking point. Sort of like wiring guys…. At my company, the wiring guys make 40K. If you get a company to come to your house and run cat-5, etc. you might pay 1,000 / day / per guy! (Or more). These guys aren’t making 300K, they make 40K. The companies that charge for them don’t do it in huge volume, so it is a somewhat cottage industry. Same in solar.

We need solar installers to be like Dish Network or cable guys. Where the cost of installing is part of the cost of the materials, and the labor is not jacked up by 800%!

[cyphire]

I think that somewhat it is still a cottage industry – the cost of labor and installation seems to be a sticking point. Sort of like wiring guys…. At my company, the wiring guys make 40K. If you get a company to come to your house and run cat-5, etc. you might pay 1,000 / day / per guy! (Or more). These guys aren’t making 300K, they make 40K. The companies that charge for them don’t do it in huge volume, so it is a somewhat cottage industry. Same in solar.

We need solar installers to be like Dish Network or cable guys. Where the cost of installing is part of the cost of the materials, and the labor is not jacked up by 800%!

[cyphire]

I think that somewhat it is still a cottage industry – the cost of labor and installation seems to be a sticking point. Sort of like wiring guys…. At my company, the wiring guys make 40K. If you get a company to come to your house and run cat-5, etc. you might pay 1,000 / day / per guy! (Or more). These guys aren’t making 300K, they make 40K. The companies that charge for them don’t do it in huge volume, so it is a somewhat cottage industry. Same in solar.

We need solar installers to be like Dish Network or cable guys. Where the cost of installing is part of the cost of the materials, and the labor is not jacked up by 800%!

[cyphire]

The house on Nautilus… Previous sales…

08/17/2006 $1,700,000
06/24/2005 $1,350,000
03/28/1989 $680,500
02/23/1989 $490,000

This house sold 1 year ago for 1.7M Now asking 1.425? Interesting. Is someone upside down on their mortgage????

[cyphire]

The house on Nautilus… Previous sales…

08/17/2006 $1,700,000
06/24/2005 $1,350,000
03/28/1989 $680,500
02/23/1989 $490,000

This house sold 1 year ago for 1.7M Now asking 1.425? Interesting. Is someone upside down on their mortgage????

[cyphire]

The house on Nautilus… Previous sales…

08/17/2006 $1,700,000
06/24/2005 $1,350,000
03/28/1989 $680,500
02/23/1989 $490,000

This house sold 1 year ago for 1.7M Now asking 1.425? Interesting. Is someone upside down on their mortgage????

[cyphire]

I’m so confused… I saw that Wall Street reacted positively to the increase in Month-over-Month sales. Sort of like in April when March was so brutally bad, and April was better but still bad, they claimed that sales had gone up 60%!!!! (something like that – forget the actual month and numbers…)

Is the slight uptick in July the same as this? Where June was brutal and July was better than June but still down 30-40%?

[cyphire]

I’m so confused… I saw that Wall Street reacted positively to the increase in Month-over-Month sales. Sort of like in April when March was so brutally bad, and April was better but still bad, they claimed that sales had gone up 60%!!!! (something like that – forget the actual month and numbers…)

Is the slight uptick in July the same as this? Where June was brutal and July was better than June but still down 30-40%?

[cyphire]

I’m so confused… I saw that Wall Street reacted positively to the increase in Month-over-Month sales. Sort of like in April when March was so brutally bad, and April was better but still bad, they claimed that sales had gone up 60%!!!! (something like that – forget the actual month and numbers…)

Is the slight uptick in July the same as this? Where June was brutal and July was better than June but still down 30-40%?

[cyphire]

La Jolla??? Bad example… Haven’t seen a lot of projects going up here in La Jolla. I doubt that you would find lots of new neighborhoods in Greenwich CT, or mid-town Manhattan. Sure La Jolla is brutally regulated… But Chula Vista? CV? Bakersfield?

I’m amazed at where prices have gone, and will be similarly amazed if prices do not retreat to affordability…. Taking the economy with it at the same time!

[cyphire]

La Jolla??? Bad example… Haven’t seen a lot of projects going up here in La Jolla. I doubt that you would find lots of new neighborhoods in Greenwich CT, or mid-town Manhattan. Sure La Jolla is brutally regulated… But Chula Vista? CV? Bakersfield?

I’m amazed at where prices have gone, and will be similarly amazed if prices do not retreat to affordability…. Taking the economy with it at the same time!

[cyphire]

La Jolla??? Bad example… Haven’t seen a lot of projects going up here in La Jolla. I doubt that you would find lots of new neighborhoods in Greenwich CT, or mid-town Manhattan. Sure La Jolla is brutally regulated… But Chula Vista? CV? Bakersfield?

I’m amazed at where prices have gone, and will be similarly amazed if prices do not retreat to affordability…. Taking the economy with it at the same time!

[cyphire]

I love the energy efficiency idea, and met a guy who worked for a company which installs solar panels. Seems that his boss couldn’t get enough materials to sell, and the prices that the solar panels cost were brutal (they are hard to get a hold of). As they couldn’t do high volume, their cost to install was so crazy that it would take many, many years to get back the cost.

We need an immediate high-production solar panel industry, we need to set the price and put huge rebates on it. Most other countries aren’t afraid to pump money into new technologies, sad thing is that we usually invent them, but can’t get our entrenched business cartels to go for it.

p.s. The Maglev train was invented here. Our gov’t gave 50K to MIT et. al. to sponsor some research. The Germans, French, and Japanese actually created the trains… Probably have less Republican’s running around those places…. Greedy, evil Republican’s… (Just kidding – you know which Republican’s are causing the problems…)

[cyphire]

I love the energy efficiency idea, and met a guy who worked for a company which installs solar panels. Seems that his boss couldn’t get enough materials to sell, and the prices that the solar panels cost were brutal (they are hard to get a hold of). As they couldn’t do high volume, their cost to install was so crazy that it would take many, many years to get back the cost.

We need an immediate high-production solar panel industry, we need to set the price and put huge rebates on it. Most other countries aren’t afraid to pump money into new technologies, sad thing is that we usually invent them, but can’t get our entrenched business cartels to go for it.

p.s. The Maglev train was invented here. Our gov’t gave 50K to MIT et. al. to sponsor some research. The Germans, French, and Japanese actually created the trains… Probably have less Republican’s running around those places…. Greedy, evil Republican’s… (Just kidding – you know which Republican’s are causing the problems…)

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