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I.O.U.s

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I.O.U.s

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Really though, we should bail these people out. Afterall, I’m sure that aggression is only a result of being hornswoggled into a loan the former owner didn’t know could go up.

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Really though, we should bail these people out. Afterall, I’m sure that aggression is only a result of being hornswoggled into a loan the former owner didn’t know could go up.

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I saw an interview today and I think Bush really wants to help people, but he may actually be smart enough to know only a infinitessimal percentage actually deserve help, although I don’t know how you qualify them.

The problem is he can’t shut the door on the idea of government assistance because it’s become a political issue. As if his approval rating could go down anymore. Despite the foreclosure problem being worse than ever, it’s still less than 5% of the population, so his approval rating might actually go up if he does nothing.

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I saw an interview today and I think Bush really wants to help people, but he may actually be smart enough to know only a infinitessimal percentage actually deserve help, although I don’t know how you qualify them.

The problem is he can’t shut the door on the idea of government assistance because it’s become a political issue. As if his approval rating could go down anymore. Despite the foreclosure problem being worse than ever, it’s still less than 5% of the population, so his approval rating might actually go up if he does nothing.

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doofrat-

I wondered that after I posted, and I was thinking, man has this guy read anything on here? Typing just doesn’t convey the sarcasm you sometimes hope it does. Then again, there have been people who have responded like that and meant it!

Because you’re right, I used to think I was financially saavy because I didn’t want to rent and “throw money out the window.”

Looking back at your post, I should have figured out the taking advise from a realtor part.

Happy waiting.

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doofrat-

I wondered that after I posted, and I was thinking, man has this guy read anything on here? Typing just doesn’t convey the sarcasm you sometimes hope it does. Then again, there have been people who have responded like that and meant it!

Because you’re right, I used to think I was financially saavy because I didn’t want to rent and “throw money out the window.”

Looking back at your post, I should have figured out the taking advise from a realtor part.

Happy waiting.

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pgs-

The point we (those of us who think 50% is reasonable) are trying to make is that the numbers out there – rising foreclosures, prices, inventory levels, rents, and incomes – all point to a downward direction.

The last two bubbles saw declines all the way back down to more or less where they started.

I forget how many months of inventory there are currently, but I believes it’s close to a year. Foreclosures in CA are up 400% from 1 yr ago, and even the CA association of Realtors now expects a 9% drop. What does THAT tell you?

There’s simply not enough people making enough money to sustain these prices, so they will fall. I think they will fall past what would be an equilibrium because of how housing moves and how people react.

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pgs-

The point we (those of us who think 50% is reasonable) are trying to make is that the numbers out there – rising foreclosures, prices, inventory levels, rents, and incomes – all point to a downward direction.

The last two bubbles saw declines all the way back down to more or less where they started.

I forget how many months of inventory there are currently, but I believes it’s close to a year. Foreclosures in CA are up 400% from 1 yr ago, and even the CA association of Realtors now expects a 9% drop. What does THAT tell you?

There’s simply not enough people making enough money to sustain these prices, so they will fall. I think they will fall past what would be an equilibrium because of how housing moves and how people react.

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Year over Year is better:

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Nearly Double in September Over Same Month a Year Ago

“California’s foreclosure rate was one filing for every 253 households. The state reported the most foreclosure filings of any single state with 51,259, down 11 percent from August but a fourfold increase from September of last year.”

Anyone still think prices won’t fall? If so, I’ve got some swampland to sell you.

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Year over Year is better:

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Nearly Double in September Over Same Month a Year Ago

“California’s foreclosure rate was one filing for every 253 households. The state reported the most foreclosure filings of any single state with 51,259, down 11 percent from August but a fourfold increase from September of last year.”

Anyone still think prices won’t fall? If so, I’ve got some swampland to sell you.

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doofrat-

Are you serious? You must be if you’re getting your real estate facts from someone as inherently wise, superbly intelligent and deeply researched as a realtor.

Nonetheless, it’s probably not worth it to refute your clear lack of information, but WTH. You said:

* Saved a bunch in taxes because I can write off my payments on my taxes
Okay, but who paid those taxes? What about maintenance, HOA, Mello Roos, repairs, and don’t forget how much you pay even with the tax benefits.

* Saved all that money you’re throwing away in rent
How YOU save money I AM spending is beyond me, but unless you’re paying a $1000/mo mortgage, I doubt you’re saving more than me.

* Made money on the appreciation on the house when the market picks back up (and from the granite countertops I plan to add)
You’re joking, right? Appreciation in today’s market? You must have that confused with depreciation. Even if it was flat you’d be losing money to inflation, and be better off saving.

* I’ll be living in a house, and you’ll be priced out and probably have to live in your car, or move to North Dakota to afford a house
You’ll be living in a house that even if you can afford, will be worth less than you paid for it, and I’ll be saving money so when people like you go into foreclosure I buy it at a discount from the bank who repossesed it from you.

* You’re SO will have left you because you didn’t provide a stable nest to live in with a good school district
LOL – I didn’t know you were on such good terms with my SO to be able to determine their level of materialism.

Look if you want to buy, don’t let me stop you. Just don’t expect me to bail you out when you can’t afford it, sell it, or refinance.

I’m sure your realtor explained all of that to you already though. House prices NEVER go down right? Right…

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doofrat-

Are you serious? You must be if you’re getting your real estate facts from someone as inherently wise, superbly intelligent and deeply researched as a realtor.

Nonetheless, it’s probably not worth it to refute your clear lack of information, but WTH. You said:

* Saved a bunch in taxes because I can write off my payments on my taxes
Okay, but who paid those taxes? What about maintenance, HOA, Mello Roos, repairs, and don’t forget how much you pay even with the tax benefits.

* Saved all that money you’re throwing away in rent
How YOU save money I AM spending is beyond me, but unless you’re paying a $1000/mo mortgage, I doubt you’re saving more than me.

* Made money on the appreciation on the house when the market picks back up (and from the granite countertops I plan to add)
You’re joking, right? Appreciation in today’s market? You must have that confused with depreciation. Even if it was flat you’d be losing money to inflation, and be better off saving.

* I’ll be living in a house, and you’ll be priced out and probably have to live in your car, or move to North Dakota to afford a house
You’ll be living in a house that even if you can afford, will be worth less than you paid for it, and I’ll be saving money so when people like you go into foreclosure I buy it at a discount from the bank who repossesed it from you.

* You’re SO will have left you because you didn’t provide a stable nest to live in with a good school district
LOL – I didn’t know you were on such good terms with my SO to be able to determine their level of materialism.

Look if you want to buy, don’t let me stop you. Just don’t expect me to bail you out when you can’t afford it, sell it, or refinance.

I’m sure your realtor explained all of that to you already though. House prices NEVER go down right? Right…

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Guys you’re forgetting all the immigrants that will come in and buy $500,000 homes, and the increase in employment of nurses, teachers, bar tenders, and hotel maids that will clearly support this market to a turn around sometime early 2008.

Seriously though, I’m betting 4-5 conservatively, 7-10 non-best case scenario.

The buyer/owner sentiment will follow prices and perpetuate the correction. I honestly think we will see an over correction. Why? (asks the person who thinks people here pull opinions out of their arse) Look at the last 2 down turns, and adjust for inflation.

Still disagree? Then go buy a house today, and I’ll buy one in 4 years and we’ll see who pays more.

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