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CoronitaParticipant[quote=ltsddd][quote=Coronita]People who lived through the dot bomb days know how badly things can get. [/quote]
You forgot to mention that the mantra back then was buy now and double your money or shares in 6 months. I remember at one time Sun Micro was doing 2 for 1 splits once every six months. Buy and hold like works just fine. I just don’t have the stomach for the FANG stocks, though.[/quote]
Buy and hold works great for index funds because it’s a aggregate of a basket of companies so any one failure of one company doesn’t wipe your net worth out.
Buy and hold of a tech company works well if you happen to luckily pick the winners that last through decades of technology shifts. that has more to do with luck than anything else. For every Qualcomm, Intel, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, I can think of a dozen or so other tech companies that at one point showed a lot more promise but don’t exist anymore. Telco tech companies is a prime example. nokia, motorola, ericcson, lucent were market leaders for the longest time. It didn’t take long for lucent to go under , Motorola to die, and Nokia/Ericsson to become significantly irrelevant versus the Korean and Chinese telcos.
But I get it, when things are on a winning streak, especially during the last few years which tech has generally not seen a downturn, it’s hard to imagine how bad things could get and how quickly that could happen. You have time though. I think Powell will juice the markets as long as he can. maybe for another 2-3 years. this really is like 1999 all over again. Things are irrationally exuberant or getting close to it.
AMD is a prime example. There’s no reason why it should be where it is today, definitely the recent 8% rise is unwarranted. No new news from their earnings which while good wasn’t really that great. But for some reason there’s a big cult around it too. I’m simply on it to ride the cult wave. Those options a have already been paid for by previous options, so even of the expire worthless this time, it’s not a big deal. Yes, this is gambling, not investing. lol.
CoronitaParticipantRoughly 6-8 degrees difference between Carmel valley and Rancho Bernardo. That difference ends up being the monetary difference you spend on running your AC each day in the summer or not.
CoronitaParticipantOP, I’m not trying to persuade you to live in Carmel Valley, 92130. But assuming you already did some research and probably gotten some advice from your family in La Jolla, if you wanted to see what address goes to what school in 92130, here’s a school boundary map of the DMUSD
https://www.dmusd.org/domain/932
92130 is served by all the elementary school in the Del Mar Unifed School District. There is one exception. Part of 92130 is served by an excellent elementary school on the Solana Beach Unified school district. That school is as good as the schools in DMUSD, probably.even better than many.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=plm]I didn’t mean to say it wasn’t hard work, it just seems to me since stocks usually go up if you buy any stock, you should make money statistically long term. I’ve learned to avoid the small caps and stick with large caps and not sell when it goes down because it will go up some day. So if there is a market crash, just hold and don’t sell and a few years later you should be back. Buying chip and software stocks and FANG is the way to go I think. Playing it safe with large dividend stocks was a big mistake. I only know how to buy stocks and hold long term. No idea how to do options and don’t want to even try.[/quote]
People who lived through the dot bomb days know how badly things can get. There was a point in time when people though Amazon would be just another internet company that fizzles. There was a point in time when Netscape seemed to be one of those companies that would be around. Who would have guessed Sun Microsystems would invented java would have tanked and need to be sold to Oracle at firesale prices. Yahoo evaporated and at once had a chance to purchase Google. There was a point in time Apple was near death and needed a lifeline from Microsoft. And more recently people wrote off AMD and thought they were going to go bankrupt, which probably would have happened if they never hired Lisa Su. Tesla wouldn’t be Tesla without Elon. Trying to pick winners and losers on tech and consistently be correct is a crapshoot. And specifically when it comes to technology things change literally overnight and disappear. You might not ever heard of USRobotics,3COM, Ascend Communications but a lot of these companies were famous for their dial up modem equipment. They died because they failed to innovate. Technology is one of the riskiest bets because things change so quickly. If you are on the wrong side of that technology curve of a company, you could easily get wiped out and never recover…. That’s a lot different from say a consumer staples company that churns out diapers that pays a decent dividend doing really boring stuff that doesn’t change that quickly. I don’t expect people who have never see a tech crash to understand this, and maybe you will be lucky and never will.
I don’t know when the hype will be over. If I did I wouldn’t have sold. It could be tomorrow it could be a year or two from now. What I do know is given my historical track record, I am way overdue for being wrong. So I am out.
CoronitaParticipantno, it is not nearly as easy at it is. Anyone who says otherwise is either exceptionally lucky or is lying . if it really was as easy as it seems, many of us wouldn’t be buying real estate too. and that in itself is not a walk in the park too.
I don’t try to be right all the time. I just try to be right enough time to be worth the hassle. If that means taking much smaller bites each time, so be it. And if I am consistently wrong for a stretch of time, it means I should spend more time doing a passive index fund. I don’t trust myself to put everything into my own abilities. it’s just dumb luck. Tax time is a pain in the ass. Before one use to have to enter all 300+ transactions into turbo tax. Now, a lot of it is figured out for you by your brokerage including cost basis and wash sales rules. But sometimes the do get it wrong. Especially when it comes to option contracts. I don’t think I have filed a 1040 less than 100 pages in a long time, and I have a weird case that I need to always mail the state tax in, and can’t do electronic. at least I’m creating jobs. someone had to scan/enter >100 pages into the system.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=phaster]noticed ya have family in La Jolla,… yup its nice and kinda miss movies @thelot but have to wonder now that people are starting to work from home how this changes the whole work/live dynamic (for those of us fortunate to have the skillset and/or RE investments that are in demand)
just listed to a podcast that all piggs might find interesting,…
https://www.startups.com/community/startup-therapy/episode/63
sure its nice to live in a posh area like La Jolla, where there are all kinds of social connections ya won’t find in other areas (like neighbors or parents of other kids being billionaires and the doors so to speak that go w/ a direct connection to that kind of social circle)
BUT the BIG question is,… are you willing to sacrifice working long hours to live in the La Jolla area (listen to the podcast to get a better idea of what I am trying to say)
BTW don’t wan’t to give the impression that having billionaire status is an end all and be all (in the case of TRUMP who is an alleged billionaire I would say that he is a neighbored I would NOT want to have)
what I am trying to say is someone who managed to build up a company from the ground up (in the tech sector), MIGHT BE a good role model for your kids[/quote]
Might want to check the post again. Most of the schools listed above are NOT in La Jolla. In fact, I randomly picked near equal performing schools in different parts of San Diego, because these are the public school most other parents know about.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=gzz]I don’t think early elementary school it makes any difference to be in a rich versus upper middle class district. They’ll be finger-painting and ABCing the same either way. Maybe by high school the difference in AP classes and peer influence will make that difference important.
And socially, do you want to be the poorest kid in CV or have a background similar to peers? Parents of small tots tend to socialize with their playmates.[/quote]
You know that, I know that. But some parents will still care a lot for that… Me? Guilty as charged.
CoronitaParticipantI am already bending over on my W-2 wage AGI anyway. At this point any extra amount on top of that doesn’t really make that much more of a difference. Plus I’d rather pay a larger tax up front than earn a lifetime membership to the exclusive Capital Loss Carryover Club that I almost earned one bad year a long time ago when I was greedy. Almost all derivative trading has to be short term capital gains anyway, because option contracts don’t normally last more than a year
CoronitaParticipant[quote=Tin369]Is the $2500-$3000+ the going rate for a 2 bedroom apartment.
Should I go through apartments.com and trust the reviews.I saw one in La Jolla which has good ratings but looks too small. The other was is called torreyhill gardens apartment or something looks a bit bigger and newer.
Not seeing much Airbnb in Thelma Jolla area in the price range when I filtered for monthly rental and 2 bed min.
Ideally, would love a townhouse or something with a bit more room over an apartment.
As far as schools go – I guess we will have to have a SD address can we give our family address until we get our own place. There are so many moving parts to this.
Do I have to get a CA license?[/quote]
Please don’t rent in Torrey Gardens. Trust me on that one. Besides being expensive, a lot of issues in that complex. Here’s just a subset reported by people.
[img_assist|nid=27141|title=torreygardens|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1000|height=600]
[img_assist|nid=27142|title=torreygardens2|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1000|height=600]
I removed the names of the actual people that posted. And you can ignore the posts from the Karen’s that complain about suspicious tall men that are black, brown, yellow, etc or the complaints about dog owners not picking up after their dog poop (yeah that’s annoying, but still).The one that’s of more concerning are the reports of car break ins, cars stolen, bikes stolen, motorcycles stolen, and other things like smell, psycho neighbors yelling and screaming in the middle of the night. And the management company not really doing anything about it. Mind you, this is in a neighborhood that is supposedly really safe and secure. But for some reason, this particular complex has an unusually high rate of incidences well above the average of everything else in Carmel Valley. I think it’s because of the way they designed it and underground parking, lax in security. It’s pretty easy to steal a car from underground without anyone noticing…It’s pretty funny because if you lived in that complex, you’d probably think Carmel Valley is in the middle of a riot zone, lol.
Friends don’t let friends smoke crack.
Friends don’t let friends stay in Torrey Gardens.If you REALLLY want to live around this area and want to stay in a corporate owned housing, I’d say the better one is Torrey Villas. At least it’s gated and the amenities is much better.
https://www.irvinecompanyapartments.com/lp/san-diego.html
Psss, I heard that existing tenants were given a smashing “deal” to renew their 1 year leases early for 2/2’s at a ridiculously good $3000/month if the renewed 3 months earlier then when there leases were up. Translation: they are freaking out that people are not going to renew and rent prices possibly coming down…..So you might be able to negotiate something better..
[img_assist|nid=27143|title=tv|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1000|height=500]
[img_assist|nid=27144|title=cvillas2|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1000|height=500]
The common consensus is $3000 for 2/2 right now is too high.
You really shouldn’t make a housing decision without seeing things in person. Imho.
BTW: the reference to Altura in the post above is here:
https://www.alturacarmelvalley.com/
You could also try these apartments in the monstrosity called One Paseo. I hear they are having a boatload of issues finding tenants. So they too can probably cut you a deal…
Carmel Valley isn’t the only place that is good to live in. There’s plenty of other great places for the same money or less. Most people pick carmel valley due to close proximity to the tech corridor in Sorrento Valley, with arguably a good public school. But imho, the public schools are way overrated. For you, since you are working from home, you don’t really need to pay the premium to be close to the tech hub.
You don’t need a CA license right away, in fact I would not register your cars for an entire year if you can. Cheaper to keep it registered out of state.
This also might help:
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/92130_rb/This townhome is pretty nice and in a nice neighborhood. I know because I use to own one in this complex. Sorry that it’s listed now at $3400/month. Had I known I could rent it at this price, I probably would have wanted to keep it.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/12545-El-Camino-Real-UNIT-D-San-Diego-CA-92130/16778124_zpid/This one is decent
https://www.zillow.com/b/3754-mykonos-ln-san-diego-ca-5j48QT/This one is a 2/3 below $3000/month
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3754-Mykonos-Ln-UNIT-102-San-Diego-CA-92130/66111998_zpid/Torrey Ridge is ok, but it’s really close to high voltage power lines. Some people don’t care. I do…
https://www.zillow.com/b/torrey-ridge-apartment-homes-san-diego-ca-5ZXgv2/
Pell place is ok as a rental (I wouldn’t own one. Lots of builder annoying defects that hopefully they fixed)
https://www.zillow.com/b/carmel-valley-neighborhood-san-diego-ca-5Xm3qP/
Elysian is ok too.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/12602-Carmel-Country-Rd-UNIT-8-San-Diego-CA-92130/16768396_zpid/Adulucia is ok too.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3740-Mykonos-Ln-San-Diego-CA-92130/2079233537_zpid/There’s also . Signature Point. I don’t know about them though. They are in the older part of Carmel Valley, which I personally prefer.
https://www.zillow.com/b/signature-point-san-diego-ca-BMVbSs/
There, I just did most of your rental research for you for 92130. Other people can chime in in the UTC/LJ area, Carlsbad, Rancho Bernardo, 4S Ranch.
If you specifically want to look in 92130 and want subjective opinion on 92130 rentals, feel free to PM me or ask here. As far as deciding between 92130 or other places, I won’t weigh in on that.
One thing to keep in mind also is that if you rent in a condo/apartment/townhome, your water/trash is generally included. If you rent a SFH elsewhere, usually you are responsible for all the utilities, and you are also responsible for the utilities for upkeeping lawns/vegetation/etc. So if you do decide to rent a SFH, make sure the house in question has a lot of a low maintenance drought resistant vegetation that doesn’t require a lot of water on your dime. A typical water/sewage bill even with minimal usage can easily be about $80-100/month, partly becaue of all the fixed non-usage charges San Diego charges for water.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=gzz]Tin, those large complexes are overpriced in my opinion. They focus on a younger market, people with bad credit, and people who can’t pay the large security deposit small landlords tend to require.
Here’s a renovated 3/2 house with yard in north clairemont for under 3k.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4631-Conrad-Ave-San-Diego-CA-92117/2082981508_zpid/
Might not be that one, but if you can pay 3k and are willing to put some effort into it, you can get a detached house reasonably close to La Jolla.
UC is even closer to La Jolla and sometimes included as part of it. While the prices are high, the lots are usually big and houses big and updated. $3600 4-bed:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4750-Pauling-Ave-San-Diego-CA-92122/16843887_zpid/%5B/quote%5D
$10 says he won’t like the elementary school. And since it’s $3000/month, that leaves out the option to send his kid(s) to a private school. Add $100/month for water bill he will be on the hook for paying himself.
It usually boils down to that when there’s a kid(s) involved.
Hawthorne Elementary
https://www.greatschools.org/california/san-diego/6157-Hawthorne-Elementary-School/Worst performing Carmel Valley Elementary School
https://www.greatschools.org/california/san-diego/12213-Torrey-Hills-School/Best performing Carmel Valley Elementary Schools
https://www.greatschools.org/california/san-diego/17442-Ocean-Air-School/Second best performing Carmel Valley School
https://www.greatschools.org/california/san-diego/11832-Sage-Canyon-School/Best performing Solana Elementary School serving Carmel Valley residence in that corridor where there’s a lot of condos/townhomes
https://www.greatschools.org/california/san-diego/13714-Solana-Pacific-Elementary-School/Margin of difference between 4 schools above. Very small. Almost inconsequential.
Really good school in Rancho Bernardo, arguably better than Carmel Valley school
https://www.greatschools.org/california/poway/6030-Chaparral-Elementary-School/Really good school in LJ/BirdRock, arguably better than Carmel Valley
https://www.greatschools.org/california/la-jolla/6105-Bird-Rock-Elementary-School/A lot of parents would rather temporarily live in a smaller place in a better school district than a larger place elsewhere. After all, it’s temporary housing. That’s why Carmel Valley makes a lousy rental markets. Many people that rent in carmel valley don’t stay renters a very long time. They are just passing time to home ownership or deciding whether to stay permanently.
CoronitaParticipantMore about people leaving high density housing in the city and moving to larger places in the suburbs . Good news for homes in the burbs. Bad news for homes in the cities.
CoronitaParticipantI think it’s time to be less greedy… I sold a good portion this morning and will keep things mostly in cash. Im going to hold onto my AMD options to see how long the hype lasts, along with TSM, and XLP consumer staples etf, That’s about it in my trading account.
I’ll try to build up in international equity etfs… thinking something like SCHF or vanguard’s version of an international index. No change to my 401k and retirement account. that’s on autopilot.My YTD ended up around 20.3%
You guys that caught the bottom during covid and went in heavy I’m sure did way better on your YTD. Congrats on jumping in head first, I wish I had a stomach for it. Unfortunately, Ididn’t go all in at the bottom, being risk adverse as I am. But better than my original targets for this year before covid. The market corrections helped a lot, especially towards the end of May when things started to pop up again There’s no reason for me to continue taking greater risks, and it feels a little frothy now, so I’m out, mostly,.for now. I’m sort of envious that some of you got bigger balls than me …All I do is move in and out of tiny positions here and there like 300 times this year. Thankfully there’s no trading commissions or its very low for option contracts, lol.
Oh well, I can’t complain. I’m
pretty happy about the returns this year.[img_assist|nid=27140|title=covidita|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=300|height=204]
Happy trading and good luck people
CoronitaParticipant[quote=FlyerInHi]
Glad you love Dirigisme. It’d work better with universal healthcare.
You should also thank China.You’re the one who always finds ways to brag about yourself, no matter what the subject is.[/quote]
Wow Brian, going after those personal attacks again…It doesn’t take much does it? Is that what you mean by taking the high road again. Here’s a pattern. Someone says something that you don’t agree with that you can’t dispute, you go low with those personal attacks.
Keep it going, really.CoronitaParticipantOP, if you care about schools, you can look up the schools in question for how well or not so well on the CAASP testing
. CAASP testing was suspended this year, but results from last year are availablehttps://caaspp-elpac.cde.ca.gov/caaspp/
https://caaspp.cde.ca.gov/sb2018/Search.
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