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CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone]
Perhaps, but you mentioned yourself sometime abo that Carmel Valley was being bought up by Chinese money. And regarding people moving here from “more expensive places in US” in reality there are very few places in the US with higher housing costs than San Diego, Bay Area being the most obvious.[/quote]Well it might have been some of that 2-3 years …..but….they arent the main reason that is driving carmel valley homes now past $650+/sqft..Or driving mira mesa sfh to $1millon right now. Or blowing the price roof off of carlsbad or encinitas.
Its all being driven by what i call the “shelter in bigger suburb home” covid-19 crowd, which has crippled the inventory and driven the home prices more so than those foreign buyers might have years ago.In hindsight, when foreign buyers were buying, inventory was not nearly as bad, prices were high. but nowhere near where they are now. One foreign buyer bought a home near me for about $1.25 million about 3 years ago….There wasnt that much competition for it…Today, a comparable home will close around $1.6-1.7m and probably had 30-40+ offers. 3 years ago, the home we bought had mutiple offers. But not nearly as crazy as the 20-30+ you see and hear about now. Back then, seller took our cash offer versus other people who were probably willing to pay more with a loan contingency. The seller wanted to close fast.
Fast forward to recent times. 2 months ago, I tried buying 2 townhomes in mira mesa. Forget it was a 2/2 around $600k. I threw in two cash offers, slightly above asking for both and and offered ro close within 15 days.
The first townhome had 30 offers. I didnt even make the short list after my counter stayed. They didnt care i had cash and could close early. The seller was willing to take a chance and find a buyer that was willing to take out a loan and spend more, even if there was a higher risk the buyer may fail to perform. I guess they figure if the first buyer backs out, theres 29 other buyers itching to buy.
That place closed at $650k….in mira mesa…for a 2/2 townhome..owner occupied….
The second townhome, similar situation, but i was among the first 6 that the seller wanted to work with. I stuck to my terms because i had originally offered more above asking than the first, again cash offer + quick closing..The seller ended up cancelling selling… He decided he was going to rent out his place ..I guess he was thinking he can get more money for it sane time next year.
The more recent price movement has very little to do with foreign buyers. Foreign buyers might have taken some inventory off the table a few years ago, but not nearly enough that if you were ready to buy, you couldnt have bought something. versus right now, its prety crazy…
One of my friends just moved back here. He brought his senior software engineer $350k+/yr.comp package with him. So did his wife…and their friends are contemplating making the same move because for them, spending 1.6-1.7m is chump change…what they would be spending for a hole in wall place in bay area in a subpar school district. If they are doing it, and their friends are contemplating it..theres probably a lot more thinking about it and/or doing it.
i think times have changed…as another pointmm.for the last few yeaes, ive gotten so many calls from FANG companies asking me if i was interested in working for them. The conversatiom ended when I said relocation isnt possible. These days, same recruiters from same companies reach out to me with “are you interested to learn more about our remote opportunies”
CoronitaParticipant[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor] you’ll never win with that negative attitude.
[/quote]Why is wanting prices to go down a “Negative Attitude”? Yes I want middle income and young people to be able to afford a house. I also don’t like neighborhoods being bought up by foreign investors and hedge funds. Neither of these things are desirable or good for the Country in my opinion.[/quote]
The only thing foreign about these recent buyers are they are from other parts of the US where the cost of living is higher. A lot of people trying to buy houses here lately are bay area and LA people who now have the option to work remotely. My latest tenant is a relocation from LA. They currently pay $5000 to live in a condo nesr culver city. They will be paying me the same amount to live in something with more than double the sq ft with access to way better schools. Both will be working remotely.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]
In 2004 I told everyone that would listen we were in for severe pain over the next decade but long term beyond that I was a raging bull. In early 2008 I left a major brokerage and set up a small boutique firm with an attorney. We predicted it would be short sales not foreclosures that would solve this. I personally did over 150 short sales the first of which closed in mid 2008. The “short sale experts” that came next and were all over TV/radio were calling us daily to learn how and what we were doing.
[/quote]Yeah, I think there was about 6 short sales I had a shot at, but only jumped on some of them… I recall at times quibbling over $1500-3000 above what I wanted to pay, and there was this one in Rancho Bernardo quibbling over a clogged garbage disposal resulting from someone throwing a planter down the drain……I remember you telling me that in the long run, $1500-3000 isn’t going to make a difference…Still, I was petty enough to back out over $1500-3000.Boy was that stupid.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic]Gift tastes go out of style…but tp is forever. Except, well, I’m liking those baby wipes nowadays.
Also, one major investment strategy that sees candies screws up is investing in your teeth. If you can just keep your own teeth you could save 50k plus in dental implants!!!
Avoid sugar if you can and floss like your life depends on it. Also, try neem powder. Remedy from India. My mouth feels awesome when I use it. Not available anywhere but internet, except for minute quantities in toothpaste. Could be a big item someday. Maybe I should get in the neem game.[/quote]
Sees candies has not gone out of business for over 100 years.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic]I think everyone can make 5 to 10 perc guaranteed easily.
Just stock up on household supplies. Spend 10 k at Costco, same stuff will be 11k in 2022.
Just make sure you use your garbage bags and toothpaste sparingly to maintain savings.
Problem is storage costs and holding costs. Do I really want to buy 2025s toilet paper this weekend? My return is lower if I have to wait 6 years to use that floss.
This also runs counter to my other investment strategy, the highest yielding trick ever…don’t spend money. I had an available bowl that was 10.29! Seemed high to me.[/quote]
Actually, easier than that. Just buy lots of Sees candies gift certificates. I have some from circa 1990ies i bought for like $5 for 2lbs of chocolate. I think 2lbs of sees candies nuts and chew chocolates are now around $45 now.
CoronitaParticipantInflation is already here. How much are people people payment for a medium size jamba juice these days? $7-8? Have you folks looked atyour dining bills lately? Or your grocery bills? Then theres all the announcements from a lot of consumer staoles thst.alresdyndaid they will be jacking up prices
https://www.wsj.com/articles/procter-gamble-will-raise-prices-in-september-11618916498
Both China and US have no choice. Print baby print.
Usually, free and clear me like to live debt free. Now, im willing to take a little gamble that the USD will continue to get trashed and borrowed money now will be worth a heck of lot less in the future. The challenge is to not be comoletely foolish and dump.it all back into thr stock market.That, and the reality of this too, at least for now lol:
[img_assist|nid=27358|title=Oops|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=600]
hmmmm. Should I go for that short to mid term CDs with a 0.05% return….or should i go go for that 2 year CD with that awesome large 0.15% return, or shall i go after that 5 year CD with a killer 1% return????
I think my money in a impound account for my cash out loan earns 2% at least, by state law lol.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=svelte][quote=an]
Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.
[/quote]The stock market crashed in the 70s.
[img_assist|nid=27356|title=December 1972 SP500|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=297]
[quote=an]
We have never ever before talk about up to $10T in stimulus. I don’t think it’ll stop at $10T either. [/quote]Perhaps, but I’m not convinced everything that Biden has proposed will actually be passed.[/quote]
things must be frothy if scaredy is contemplating taking on more debt. My mortgage is tiny and refinanced at 2.5, but it makes perfect sense to me to take a recent offer of 300K extra cash out, refi the whole mess at 30 years at 2.625%, and dollar cost average the proceeds into reits, gold and international stocks over the next 36 months.
sure seems likely from my distorted vantage point now that those assets will be more than 26.25% higher 10 years from now, or really any asset will be higher 10 years from now. it is almost hard to visualize a longlasting crash. even I, a pessimist that bums out the other pessimists, didn’t sell when the pandemic hit, just kept buying. I was like, eh, nothings real anyway. i capitulate to insanity.
not that I’ll actually do it, but it seems like a logical thing to do. which means it’s probably insane. the more likely thing I’ll do is pay off my stupid mortgage. stupid.[/quote]
I took 540k out at 3% and trying to get my first mortgage payment on $160k invested. Lol….boring stuff, no tech.
Wish gold wasnt so expensive.CoronitaParticipantTsunami of foreclosures…nope…..
More like a tsunami of buyers camping out in hotels from the bay area and other high cost areas waiting for a SFH to come on the market, and then be one of 30-50+ bidders on that one house…..
The only sad thing is. Maybe people locally might have been priced out by these buyers.
Those housing market crash in SD predictions as a result of covid? Turned to be 180 degrees the opposite.
San Diego Real Estate:
CoronitaParticipantI like having the best of both worlds. I like a clean looking car. Now I can totally cosmetically trash my track car, and at the end of a few years, repaint everything and trash it again.
I wont try to paint a 3 stage painted car though.
CoronitaParticipantI actually like san diego. I don’t consider it a liberal cesspool. I think it’s pretty well balanced.
I like the bay area, because of the tech scene.Given the two, I won’t mind switching between the two locations to live.
I don’t care about L.A. L.A. is an armpit imho.
I’ve contemplated selling one of my properties and cashing in on the appreciation. Don’t need the money, it rented out $1000/month more than last year. I’ll let it ride.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]Cool, Looks better than the Job I did trying to straighten out the plastic bumper on my Honda LOL.
I Should just go get a new one.[/quote]
If plastic bumpers are warped, its probably just easier tk buy a new one versus the time you need to spend repairing it. I had a front bumper that should have been tossed away rather.than repaired. Repair wasnt just plastic welding cracks. But also filling creases and dents with plastic filler. Lots of body shops and those quick bumper repair shops often take shortcuts and use regular body filler. That might work fo ra few years, but then eventually youll see spiderweb cracks as the plastic bumper flexes and the bondo does not.
CoronitaParticipantMy purpose is to find more excuses to add more tools to my tool collection!
So my friend donated their car to me to let me practice. We figure, if I really mess it up, it goes to the bodyshop anyway. So I figure I’d practice body repair, which I suck at.
Front passenger side is slightly messed up. Tried buffing it out…Didn’t work. Just kidding.
[img_assist|nid=27345|title=before|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]If any of you ever want color matched paint, try paintscratch.com. They aren’t the cheapest, and aren’t the most expensive. You can get paint in the rattle can or in the pint, quart, gallon matched to your car. Takes about 1.5 weeks to order. The paint that comes in the pint/quart/gallon is PPG, which is pretty good. You can all get 1K clearcoat if you prefer, but if you spray it, make sure you have a good respirator.
Anyway, thought I test the color match. So let’s repaint the rear bumper since it has a couple of dings..(Filled in with plastic bumper filler…)
[img_assist|nid=27348|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]
Let’s see….
[img_assist|nid=27349|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]Good enough match for me!
But let’s double check by trying the front bumper too.
More battle scars…
[img_assist|nid=27351|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]And….
[img_assist|nid=27353|title=ff|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]Toyotas (and Mazda) are so easy to take apart…
[img_assist|nid=27347|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]Passenger fender is done (it just has my dirty fingerprints)…
[img_assist|nid=27339|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]
.The next step will be door. Trying not to replace the entire door (too expensive).Damage is pretty bad though. It really should just get a new door skin and done professionally. Oh well…So, I tried my PDR tools from the window jam…No help….So….. Time for a trip to harbor freight!!!
[img_assist|nid=27341|title=sw|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]
$100 stud welder + some studs + a slide hammer. What do I got to lose right?
[img_assist|nid=27342|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]
Not bad. For $99. It’s no professional weld straigtener, but it got out most of the heavily dented and creased metal. Rest will need to be filled with body filler.
A trick I learned from others is, even if things look “ok” after pulling dents, go over with a black coat of flat paint. Because black will show every imperfection….
[img_assist|nid=27343|title=door_black|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]
Oh boy. Lots of work…still.
[img_assist|nid=27344|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=400]
Bondo time….
Still lots to do. Bottom half of the the door…Ran out of bondo… To be continued.
CoronitaParticipantI fix cars…. Now I paint cars… Even cars not mine![img_assist|nid=27338|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500|height=500]
CoronitaParticipantAlso, side bar discussion. AN reminded me in CA, there’s a minimum wage law for computer workers. You have to pay them a minimum of $99k/year in order to classify them as exempt employees. Otherwise, if you don’t, they can’t be classified as exempt and you have to pay them overtime for each hour they work over 40….
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