[Coronita]

I would say it has to do with income levels of those zip codes rather than ethnicity. Temecula and Murrieta are on there too.
So is oceanside (as I suspect it would have been).

Other interesting areas

MiraMesa 92126 San Diego CA 146 19 22 187

El Cajon(?) 92115 San Diego CA 125 25 15 165

92114 (Encanto) San Diego CA 211 29 20 260
92105 (East SD) San Diego CA 143 25 19 187
92154 Otay Mesa) San Diego CA 204 25 7 236

92057 Oceanside CA 191 15 254 460
92592 Temecula CA 240 65 37 342
92563 Murrieta CA 320 105 40 465
92562 Murrieta CA 261 71 26 358

[Coronita]

I’m lost here. Why are we suddenly talking about religion?

Anyway, I’ve long learned that while I’d like to believe in faith and goodness in heart among all Christians, I’ve seem my fair share of crocks that say one thing, and do completely the other. On the other thing, I see plenty of decent folks regardless of religious faith (or none at all). Hence, while I won’t screw someone over, I won’t let any religious devotee use religion,sin,etc to screw me over. The “Christian” label that one may apply to him/herself obviously has no bearing on how good/bad the person really is, because we’re all human, and we all tend to think we’re above everyone else.

Sorry if you we conned by others using the Christian label. But it happens.

[Coronita]

I’m lost here. Why are we suddenly talking about religion?

Anyway, I’ve long learned that while I’d like to believe in faith and goodness in heart among all Christians, I’ve seem my fair share of crocks that say one thing, and do completely the other. On the other thing, I see plenty of decent folks regardless of religious faith (or none at all). Hence, while I won’t screw someone over, I won’t let any religious devotee use religion,sin,etc to screw me over. The “Christian” label that one may apply to him/herself obviously has no bearing on how good/bad the person really is, because we’re all human, and we all tend to think we’re above everyone else.

Sorry if you we conned by others using the Christian label. But it happens.

[Coronita]

I did an appraisal on a home this week in the Bonita Long Canyon / Rialto area that is going to be a short sale of $300,000+. It sold in 2005 for $1,200,000, with an 80/20 loan, It's now in the foreclosure process, but it's selling now as a short sale for just under $900,000. What I've noticed in the last several months, is that I'm surprised how relatively stable the market seems in some areas, like parts of Carmel Valley, Scripps Ranch, La Jolla, Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos. I'm also surprised at how horrible things are in other areas, specifically Eastlake and Otay Ranch. And the market is so bad in parts of Riverside County, like Perris and Lake Elsinore, that there really aren't any words to adequately describe it.

 

It's pretty easy to explain this. There hasn't been enough price differentiation yet in house prices. There are some areas where it just doesn't make sense for home prices to be above a certain level no matter how big, how upgraded, etc.

$900k for a home in the boonies isn't nearly the same thing as $900k inland in for example Rancho P, Rancho B, or CV. I think it’s a lot to do with the income levels of the home owners where they are buying. Statistically, people living in the boonies, or in temecula, otay, etc probably aren’t the higher income earners that have the financial means to sustain a 800-900k home/
Also, newer areas bordering sketchy neighborhoods are also an issue. The Otay Ranch area doesn't surprise me one bit. Look around the area outside of the new development. Chula Vista isn't an area necessarily known for it's great schools and high income earners. I wouldn’t live there even though the immediate neighborhood is nice, just because of the surrounding. If I really needed a home, I’d rather stretch and buy something in a better surrounding.

All the housing issues are going to start hemorraging in these outlyer ereas first, and then depending on how long this correction lasts, starting moving into the more desirable locations. We're already seeing the fallout from Temecula… It wouldn't surprise me if Oceanside get hit pretty bad soon (if not already). Sorry, don't follow oceanside. It also doesn’t surprise me that a lot of the fraud happened in the outlyer areas, as statistically the less financially savy are the ones usually the easiest to be taken advantage of.

[Coronita]

I did an appraisal on a home this week in the Bonita Long Canyon / Rialto area that is going to be a short sale of $300,000+. It sold in 2005 for $1,200,000, with an 80/20 loan, It's now in the foreclosure process, but it's selling now as a short sale for just under $900,000. What I've noticed in the last several months, is that I'm surprised how relatively stable the market seems in some areas, like parts of Carmel Valley, Scripps Ranch, La Jolla, Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos. I'm also surprised at how horrible things are in other areas, specifically Eastlake and Otay Ranch. And the market is so bad in parts of Riverside County, like Perris and Lake Elsinore, that there really aren't any words to adequately describe it.

 

It's pretty easy to explain this. There hasn't been enough price differentiation yet in house prices. There are some areas where it just doesn't make sense for home prices to be above a certain level no matter how big, how upgraded, etc.

$900k for a home in the boonies isn't nearly the same thing as $900k inland in for example Rancho P, Rancho B, or CV. I think it’s a lot to do with the income levels of the home owners where they are buying. Statistically, people living in the boonies, or in temecula, otay, etc probably aren’t the higher income earners that have the financial means to sustain a 800-900k home/
Also, newer areas bordering sketchy neighborhoods are also an issue. The Otay Ranch area doesn't surprise me one bit. Look around the area outside of the new development. Chula Vista isn't an area necessarily known for it's great schools and high income earners. I wouldn’t live there even though the immediate neighborhood is nice, just because of the surrounding. If I really needed a home, I’d rather stretch and buy something in a better surrounding.

All the housing issues are going to start hemorraging in these outlyer ereas first, and then depending on how long this correction lasts, starting moving into the more desirable locations. We're already seeing the fallout from Temecula… It wouldn't surprise me if Oceanside get hit pretty bad soon (if not already). Sorry, don't follow oceanside. It also doesn’t surprise me that a lot of the fraud happened in the outlyer areas, as statistically the less financially savy are the ones usually the easiest to be taken advantage of.

[Coronita]

Wow… the real question is how could i have gotten into the hedge fund offered by Paulson and Co… Up 90% in a year is not to bad…

 

SD Realtor,

 

According to some of the relatives/friends that work in the hedge fund industry, several of these hedge funds aren't open to normal peoples like you and me. a lot of these hedge funds are excluded to folks that are really investors with at least tens and millions in assets. Partly, due to the risky nature of these investments.

 

If at all this article highlights, is the time and time repeat in american history. The rich are always a few steps ahead of everyone else, and the rich keep get richer at the expense of the poor. …I'm referring to situation in which effectively you have a wealth transfer going from the mortgage strapped people about to default to the rich who are holding on to these hedge funds take have derivative positions. Effectively, people are going to profit when these average joe's default in large numbers.

 

 

[Coronita]

Wow… the real question is how could i have gotten into the hedge fund offered by Paulson and Co… Up 90% in a year is not to bad…

 

SD Realtor,

 

According to some of the relatives/friends that work in the hedge fund industry, several of these hedge funds aren't open to normal peoples like you and me. a lot of these hedge funds are excluded to folks that are really investors with at least tens and millions in assets. Partly, due to the risky nature of these investments.

 

If at all this article highlights, is the time and time repeat in american history. The rich are always a few steps ahead of everyone else, and the rich keep get richer at the expense of the poor. …I'm referring to situation in which effectively you have a wealth transfer going from the mortgage strapped people about to default to the rich who are holding on to these hedge funds take have derivative positions. Effectively, people are going to profit when these average joe's default in large numbers.

 

 

[Coronita]

If you think things are bad for the average folks now, wait until mortgage rates get insane, inflation rises, while salaries stay stagnant. Wrong. Higher mortgage interest rates will simply drive prices down more.

 

 

I'm not disagreeing with your statement. Higher mortgage rates will drive prices down more. I'm just trying to understand how people think that during a period when mortgage rates are high, why inflation isn't going to be a problem and how it's not going to significantly eat into their purchasing power when that time comes to buy a home.

 

I'm just curious home many folks are planning to purchase without a conventional loan (20% down, etc). How many of us will be really affected if for example, it's $4/gallon to fill up, or if the cost of medicine goes up say 20%. Why would mortgage rates run rampant in a vacuum?

[Coronita]

If you think things are bad for the average folks now, wait until mortgage rates get insane, inflation rises, while salaries stay stagnant. Wrong. Higher mortgage interest rates will simply drive prices down more.

 

 

I'm not disagreeing with your statement. Higher mortgage rates will drive prices down more. I'm just trying to understand how people think that during a period when mortgage rates are high, why inflation isn't going to be a problem and how it's not going to significantly eat into their purchasing power when that time comes to buy a home.

 

I'm just curious home many folks are planning to purchase without a conventional loan (20% down, etc). How many of us will be really affected if for example, it's $4/gallon to fill up, or if the cost of medicine goes up say 20%. Why would mortgage rates run rampant in a vacuum?

[Coronita]

thanks for your reply. i appreciate the info on other cv homes. so, since you're expecting your home to drop to $750K you can just sell it to me for $800K! 🙂

 

hmmmm… Don't know if my wife and kid would appreciate that.  Unfortunately, I don't think we're one of those 100% financed people :). 

Besides, pretty soon, you can pick and choose. 

[Coronita]

thanks for your reply. i appreciate the info on other cv homes. so, since you're expecting your home to drop to $750K you can just sell it to me for $800K! 🙂

 

hmmmm… Don't know if my wife and kid would appreciate that.  Unfortunately, I don't think we're one of those 100% financed people :). 

Besides, pretty soon, you can pick and choose. 

[Coronita]

You know it’s stories like this why I just refuse to turn everything over to a financial advisor.

My wife and I got into an argument over this one. We found a pretty good financial advisor, who obviously wants us to move everything into his firm. He was pretty upfront and said that his company gives him browny points for having more assets in his name. He wouldn’t charge us commision to move index funds from vanguard, and there wouldn’t be any trading costs,etc. He’s already managing about 25% of our assets. It just left me leary of leaving everything in one place.

That said, since I work with enterprise software and do a lot with security stuff I wouldn’t ever leave signed blank documents or unfilled out documents. And everything has to be in writing. Period. I’m so paranoid, I’ve even got my credit files locked up with credit freezes. The only probably is now I misplaced my pin numbers, and can’t unlock my credit files even if I needed them. Doh!

[Coronita]

You know it’s stories like this why I just refuse to turn everything over to a financial advisor.

My wife and I got into an argument over this one. We found a pretty good financial advisor, who obviously wants us to move everything into his firm. He was pretty upfront and said that his company gives him browny points for having more assets in his name. He wouldn’t charge us commision to move index funds from vanguard, and there wouldn’t be any trading costs,etc. He’s already managing about 25% of our assets. It just left me leary of leaving everything in one place.

That said, since I work with enterprise software and do a lot with security stuff I wouldn’t ever leave signed blank documents or unfilled out documents. And everything has to be in writing. Period. I’m so paranoid, I’ve even got my credit files locked up with credit freezes. The only probably is now I misplaced my pin numbers, and can’t unlock my credit files even if I needed them. Doh!

[Coronita]

cvhoverer,

Um.. $812k for a 3bedroom/2.5 bath 1800sqft home even in Carmel Valley IS A RIP OFF imho. Plus it’s a 1989 home, which imho is kinda old for CV. Granted, it has a 6000sqft lot, BUT unless you’re not willing to trade off lot size for bedrooms, something in the 1700-1900sqft is selling around the low to mid $700k in Carmel Valley.

Here’s some links that you might find interesting. I’m not going to comment on the quality of the developments, because opinion varies. BUT, you need to look around.

Trilogy: 1818/3/2.5 $720k (small lots though tight)
http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1602570&p3=-1&ix=10

Sands: 2177/3/2.5 $779k. Not bad, but not very upgraded.
Sands: 2135/4/2.5 $795-$825.
San Rafael: http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1653081&p3=-1&ix=12
1952/3/2.5 $729k.
Has expensive HOA, but is a gated SFH community.

Sausalito:
http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1638350&p3=-1&ix=13
1936/3/2.5 $729k
Personally, I’m not a fan of this complex, but its right across the street from Torrey Hills Elementary

And the listings go on and on.

Personally, I would wait.Put things in perspective for you. I purchased in 2004 when prices were high. But even so, we paid $850k for 2600sqft 5bedroom/3bath place in the older carmel valley (not the developments off of 56). If you bought this home, you’re a lot more for something a lot smaller, plus you’re also going to pay about 1% more on your mortgage than I am.

I’m expecting my home to fall to at least around $750k. There’s absolutely no reason why something 1800sqft on a 6000sqft lot should be this expensive imho.

[Coronita]

cvhoverer,

Um.. $812k for a 3bedroom/2.5 bath 1800sqft home even in Carmel Valley IS A RIP OFF imho. Plus it’s a 1989 home, which imho is kinda old for CV. Granted, it has a 6000sqft lot, BUT unless you’re not willing to trade off lot size for bedrooms, something in the 1700-1900sqft is selling around the low to mid $700k in Carmel Valley.

Here’s some links that you might find interesting. I’m not going to comment on the quality of the developments, because opinion varies. BUT, you need to look around.

Trilogy: 1818/3/2.5 $720k (small lots though tight)
http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1602570&p3=-1&ix=10

Sands: 2177/3/2.5 $779k. Not bad, but not very upgraded.
Sands: 2135/4/2.5 $795-$825.
San Rafael: http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1653081&p3=-1&ix=12
1952/3/2.5 $729k.
Has expensive HOA, but is a gated SFH community.

Sausalito:
http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1638350&p3=-1&ix=13
1936/3/2.5 $729k
Personally, I’m not a fan of this complex, but its right across the street from Torrey Hills Elementary

And the listings go on and on.

Personally, I would wait.Put things in perspective for you. I purchased in 2004 when prices were high. But even so, we paid $850k for 2600sqft 5bedroom/3bath place in the older carmel valley (not the developments off of 56). If you bought this home, you’re a lot more for something a lot smaller, plus you’re also going to pay about 1% more on your mortgage than I am.

I’m expecting my home to fall to at least around $750k. There’s absolutely no reason why something 1800sqft on a 6000sqft lot should be this expensive imho.

[Author]

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