[Coronita]

Rustico,

In any drastic recession like so many people seem to want (ok I should say depression), usually the little guys get hit first, followed by the upper middle class, followed by the rich. Super rich are always exempt. It really depends on who can weather the storm longer to clean out the rest of the folks.

Let’s say we have a recession/depression. House prices come crashing down. Great…But are you working in an industry immune from a pullback in the housing/finance/retail sectors? If the average joe is lose his/her job (or close to losing it), is he/she really going to have the guts and/or financial means to purchase a home at that point? Credit is tighting, interest rates are going up, and your wage/salary isn’t going to keep up. If you add to the mix the risk of more/less losing your job, the question will be, will average joe on an average income be able to take advantage of the depressed housing price? Perhaps a few piggingtons here are going to be able to take advantage of it, namely those that have already established wealth in a turbulent market. But I doubt most will…
(It would be interesting if we started a poll for folks here to poll (1) how many people here are “waiting” to buy a home and (2) how many people actually do when we’re in the middle of a big storm at fire-sale prices. )

I don’t doubt a downturn is going to happen. I’m predicting areas in outer fridges of San Diego are going to get hit the hardest..because looking at the demographics, the economics of the folks that live there are the first to be affected by a downturn…I would say, we haven’t seen anything close to what would happen in Temecula, Riverside, Oceanside….

I just don’t think many folks here really know what the implications are going to be for themselves. Anyway, like I said, it’s a waiting game. Hopefully, your own family can outlast most everyone else that gets hurt.

[Coronita]

bsrsharma – Actually I beg to differ. All of the fat is already being trimmed in the industries you mentioned. In fact by the time the recession hits, those industries will be close to 100% shaken out as they have already been shedding jobs the past 18 months. Think about a general slowdown all around. As companies contract R/D slows down, production slows down, funding for new projects gets put on hold. Retail sectors slow down… I can go on and on. I am not debating whether a recession is good or bad for an economy. However vulnerability to many more professions is alot more prevalent then you have indicated. I would gather that many posters here have not been through a full blown recession. SD Realtor

 

Exactly. My parents, my sis, and I have all been through the 80ies, 90ies, and the dot bombs. It's no fun, and we did end up doing better than most folks, but like I said, it's nothing to be cheering for frankly, because everyone gets hurt. It really depends on how you hold out relative to everyone else. I suspect you have a lot of young folks here that never really been through one to understand..

Hope folks here have saved up enough “F U money”.

[Coronita]

bsrsharma – Actually I beg to differ. All of the fat is already being trimmed in the industries you mentioned. In fact by the time the recession hits, those industries will be close to 100% shaken out as they have already been shedding jobs the past 18 months. Think about a general slowdown all around. As companies contract R/D slows down, production slows down, funding for new projects gets put on hold. Retail sectors slow down… I can go on and on. I am not debating whether a recession is good or bad for an economy. However vulnerability to many more professions is alot more prevalent then you have indicated. I would gather that many posters here have not been through a full blown recession. SD Realtor

 

Exactly. My parents, my sis, and I have all been through the 80ies, 90ies, and the dot bombs. It's no fun, and we did end up doing better than most folks, but like I said, it's nothing to be cheering for frankly, because everyone gets hurt. It really depends on how you hold out relative to everyone else. I suspect you have a lot of young folks here that never really been through one to understand..

Hope folks here have saved up enough “F U money”.

[Coronita]

bsrsharma – Actually I beg to differ. All of the fat is already being trimmed in the industries you mentioned. In fact by the time the recession hits, those industries will be close to 100% shaken out as they have already been shedding jobs the past 18 months. Think about a general slowdown all around. As companies contract R/D slows down, production slows down, funding for new projects gets put on hold. Retail sectors slow down… I can go on and on. I am not debating whether a recession is good or bad for an economy. However vulnerability to many more professions is alot more prevalent then you have indicated. I would gather that many posters here have not been through a full blown recession. SD Realtor

 

Exactly. My parents, my sis, and I have all been through the 80ies, 90ies, and the dot bombs. It's no fun, and we did end up doing better than most folks, but like I said, it's nothing to be cheering for frankly, because everyone gets hurt. It really depends on how you hold out relative to everyone else. I suspect you have a lot of young folks here that never really been through one to understand..

Hope folks here have saved up enough “F U money”.

[Coronita]

Luckily, I am in the position of not being the least bit worried for myself, but I do not relish the idea of hordes of otherwise hardworking people getting laid off.
As I've said elsewhere, for the risky high-fliers on Wall Street or in RE I have no such compassion. I've family and friends in both and the smart ones have already made accommodations for bad times, which inevitably come around.

Those who wasted these past "summer months" without setting aside some nuts for winter will have some lean times ahead. Maybe they'll become a bit more cautious next time.

 

 

 

I think *most* people here on piggington praying cheeering for a recession are themselves going to get hit the hardest. Like I said before, my observation is *most* of the bitter folks here are no better than the average american. It's no different than the dot bomb. At first the folks not really tech workers jeered when the dot bomb crashed. Then pretty soon they found out directly or indirectly they're work was somehow tied to the dot bomb companies, so they got affected worse. Unless you're one of the people who can say "i don't need to work, I can retire right now", you're going to eat it with a recession. Because remember, there's a pecking order to people who are going to eat it. iMy question is, how many of you wishing for a recession can raise their hand and say, even with 50% cut in my portfolio and assets, I'm still over a million in liquidable assets. I would only consider then you somewhat safe in a recession (at least say for a 4-5 year recession). And if it's longer? Better hope you have about $3million.

 

My family might be well off enough to weather a mild recession, and probably come out ahead of most average american…But still, I'm not hoping for one, 'cause I know what the implications will be for everyone. Think hard about that. ARe you really in a position to say you have enough "F U " money?

And about those wall street people…I found out those folks are smarter than most of us… They are the ones in the position to weather this, because frankly they control the markets.

[Coronita]

Luckily, I am in the position of not being the least bit worried for myself, but I do not relish the idea of hordes of otherwise hardworking people getting laid off.
As I've said elsewhere, for the risky high-fliers on Wall Street or in RE I have no such compassion. I've family and friends in both and the smart ones have already made accommodations for bad times, which inevitably come around.

Those who wasted these past "summer months" without setting aside some nuts for winter will have some lean times ahead. Maybe they'll become a bit more cautious next time.

 

 

 

I think *most* people here on piggington praying cheeering for a recession are themselves going to get hit the hardest. Like I said before, my observation is *most* of the bitter folks here are no better than the average american. It's no different than the dot bomb. At first the folks not really tech workers jeered when the dot bomb crashed. Then pretty soon they found out directly or indirectly they're work was somehow tied to the dot bomb companies, so they got affected worse. Unless you're one of the people who can say "i don't need to work, I can retire right now", you're going to eat it with a recession. Because remember, there's a pecking order to people who are going to eat it. iMy question is, how many of you wishing for a recession can raise their hand and say, even with 50% cut in my portfolio and assets, I'm still over a million in liquidable assets. I would only consider then you somewhat safe in a recession (at least say for a 4-5 year recession). And if it's longer? Better hope you have about $3million.

 

My family might be well off enough to weather a mild recession, and probably come out ahead of most average american…But still, I'm not hoping for one, 'cause I know what the implications will be for everyone. Think hard about that. ARe you really in a position to say you have enough "F U " money?

And about those wall street people…I found out those folks are smarter than most of us… They are the ones in the position to weather this, because frankly they control the markets.

[Coronita]

Luckily, I am in the position of not being the least bit worried for myself, but I do not relish the idea of hordes of otherwise hardworking people getting laid off.
As I've said elsewhere, for the risky high-fliers on Wall Street or in RE I have no such compassion. I've family and friends in both and the smart ones have already made accommodations for bad times, which inevitably come around.

Those who wasted these past "summer months" without setting aside some nuts for winter will have some lean times ahead. Maybe they'll become a bit more cautious next time.

 

 

 

I think *most* people here on piggington praying cheeering for a recession are themselves going to get hit the hardest. Like I said before, my observation is *most* of the bitter folks here are no better than the average american. It's no different than the dot bomb. At first the folks not really tech workers jeered when the dot bomb crashed. Then pretty soon they found out directly or indirectly they're work was somehow tied to the dot bomb companies, so they got affected worse. Unless you're one of the people who can say "i don't need to work, I can retire right now", you're going to eat it with a recession. Because remember, there's a pecking order to people who are going to eat it. iMy question is, how many of you wishing for a recession can raise their hand and say, even with 50% cut in my portfolio and assets, I'm still over a million in liquidable assets. I would only consider then you somewhat safe in a recession (at least say for a 4-5 year recession). And if it's longer? Better hope you have about $3million.

 

My family might be well off enough to weather a mild recession, and probably come out ahead of most average american…But still, I'm not hoping for one, 'cause I know what the implications will be for everyone. Think hard about that. ARe you really in a position to say you have enough "F U " money?

And about those wall street people…I found out those folks are smarter than most of us… They are the ones in the position to weather this, because frankly they control the markets.

[Coronita]

I think it was a great day. Capitalism works, long live capitalism!!! The market is finally punishing excessive risk taking, it is about time. BTW: I am too chicken-sh*t to short, so I lost money today (thought not too much since I have been holding much cash lately)but I am still happy to see the market start shaking out this crap. Who said" The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"? Genius. -one muggle

 

Hope you still have a job if a recession hits 🙁

 

[Coronita]

I think it was a great day. Capitalism works, long live capitalism!!! The market is finally punishing excessive risk taking, it is about time. BTW: I am too chicken-sh*t to short, so I lost money today (thought not too much since I have been holding much cash lately)but I am still happy to see the market start shaking out this crap. Who said" The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"? Genius. -one muggle

 

Hope you still have a job if a recession hits 🙁

 

[Coronita]

wal mart is trying to attract high end customers without losing their mass market customer base. it has not been successful.

 

Gee. I wonder why… 🙂

 

What I find interesting is that some many people complain about jobs being outsourced….Then go to these stores to buy crap made by $.60/hr labor that replaced them. On one hand, folks complain about being outsourced to cheaper labor. On the other hand, folks aren't willing to pay more. Why buy a $20 craftsman tool set from sears made in USA when you can buy the $4.99 special from walmart made in china?

…and now americans complaining are about product safety from china made goods…Hello..welcome to yesterday..What world are you from??? Since when would companies in China be concerned about product safety. I see horrendous accounts from relatives of pollution from textile industries over there… Dumping color dyes used for fabric into streams and lakes where local villages get their water supply from… Is the really a surprise. that these companies would cut corners as much as possible at every possibility. Food, toys,etc.

 

I stopped going to Ranch 99 on Clairemont to buy the seafood. It's much cheaper than vons, etc….But, most of the stuff comes from china, and I have suspicion most of the seafood has been baked in mercury and other preservatives during transport. It was no surprise recently when they affixed a warning label to the fish tanks "state of california label about possible cancer causing agents..yada, yada yada".

I'm just waiting for the CPSC to start testing the dye used on clothes made from China to see what results that brings up.

 

 

The good news for china is that if they wanted to take over the U.S., they wouldn't need to fight a war. They just need to poison our kids by putting lead paint in toys 🙂

 

And now, I present you the first disposable Made in China car to be exported to Europe and America. The Brilliance BS6 (and how appropriately it is named BS)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9RbZyrJQ4g

Never mind of the 1 star crash test rating (how does one even earn 1 star???) Coming soon to your walmart near you 🙂

[Coronita]

wal mart is trying to attract high end customers without losing their mass market customer base. it has not been successful.

 

Gee. I wonder why… 🙂

 

What I find interesting is that some many people complain about jobs being outsourced….Then go to these stores to buy crap made by $.60/hr labor that replaced them. On one hand, folks complain about being outsourced to cheaper labor. On the other hand, folks aren't willing to pay more. Why buy a $20 craftsman tool set from sears made in USA when you can buy the $4.99 special from walmart made in china?

…and now americans complaining are about product safety from china made goods…Hello..welcome to yesterday..What world are you from??? Since when would companies in China be concerned about product safety. I see horrendous accounts from relatives of pollution from textile industries over there… Dumping color dyes used for fabric into streams and lakes where local villages get their water supply from… Is the really a surprise. that these companies would cut corners as much as possible at every possibility. Food, toys,etc.

 

I stopped going to Ranch 99 on Clairemont to buy the seafood. It's much cheaper than vons, etc….But, most of the stuff comes from china, and I have suspicion most of the seafood has been baked in mercury and other preservatives during transport. It was no surprise recently when they affixed a warning label to the fish tanks "state of california label about possible cancer causing agents..yada, yada yada".

I'm just waiting for the CPSC to start testing the dye used on clothes made from China to see what results that brings up.

 

 

The good news for china is that if they wanted to take over the U.S., they wouldn't need to fight a war. They just need to poison our kids by putting lead paint in toys 🙂

 

And now, I present you the first disposable Made in China car to be exported to Europe and America. The Brilliance BS6 (and how appropriately it is named BS)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9RbZyrJQ4g

Never mind of the 1 star crash test rating (how does one even earn 1 star???) Coming soon to your walmart near you 🙂

[Coronita]

Does anyone have any suggestions on good shorting candidates at this time?

 

If you believe in a coming recession that hits average middle class americans and below, consider low-end retailers..

 

I'm waiting for a dead cat bounce in the equity markets, and then I think I'm going buy put options for walmart, Home Depot, Lowes, target. 

I guess I'm contradictory, because I'm long on other sectors like technology…namely, because the crap corporations are using these days are so outdated, it needs to be updated some time in the future imho. Companies have penny-pinned IT departments way too long to the point that the operations are starting to hurt now..The hardware in most companies are long overdue imho. People are starting to notice…We, for example, are going to be spending more on hardware this year since we haven't spent so long.

 

[Coronita]

Does anyone have any suggestions on good shorting candidates at this time?

 

If you believe in a coming recession that hits average middle class americans and below, consider low-end retailers..

 

I'm waiting for a dead cat bounce in the equity markets, and then I think I'm going buy put options for walmart, Home Depot, Lowes, target. 

I guess I'm contradictory, because I'm long on other sectors like technology…namely, because the crap corporations are using these days are so outdated, it needs to be updated some time in the future imho. Companies have penny-pinned IT departments way too long to the point that the operations are starting to hurt now..The hardware in most companies are long overdue imho. People are starting to notice…We, for example, are going to be spending more on hardware this year since we haven't spent so long.

 

[Coronita]

I don’t think your accidental rollover was tax free, a simple, or sep, so Ameritrade is giving you the runaround (no surprise.)

[Coronita]

I don’t think your accidental rollover was tax free, a simple, or sep, so Ameritrade is giving you the runaround (no surprise.)

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