[Coronita]

Selfishly, I wouldn’t mind seeing a 5-7% correction in the markets at this point….or more, purely thinking in terms of $$$$. It’s one of those days when when you see the markets red by -1%, and you look at your account, and it’s showing no hit.

We just need 5 or 6 more days like this. 🙂

[Coronita]

[quote=no_such_reality]No, the NASDAQ peaked before the Y2K non-event in November at about 4300. Then over the next six-ish months it corrected about 10%. Then it fell off the cliff starting in May 2000 to Feb ’01 all the way down to 1619 before recovering to about 2100 to close Feb ’01. From there it yo-yo’d down over the next year+ to about 1300. Then rotted there about a year.[/quote]

Yup… all I remember about the dot.com crash was trying to sell my vested ISO stock options, just in case it came crashing down…. And buying put options to hedge against unvested shares, when it miraculously reached one day$415/share somewhere in between the first 8 months of trading, to hedge against the options that were not going to vest for another 2-3 years. Back then, companies didn’t have policies that restricted folks from doing this. I think about 1 year after 9/11, it was trading around $11/share….

The telling signing was the day that Amazon’s Bezo came on CNBC trying to explain to “shareholders” why that day the stock tanked….And not long after that 9/11 happened, and the market tanked even more and went into a selloff lower and lower. And then when we got involved in the Iraq war, things remained pretty absymal, except for defense companies that did really well… Around 2002-2003 I believe was also when there were a huge tech/recession, in which Bay Area actually saw a outflow of employees to SoCal and other parts of the U.S.

[Coronita]

Dow below 18000, nasdaq off 70…. Deja vu!

[Coronita]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]So I sold off a large chunk of my stock holdings today too. I don’t think I ever entered such large sell orders in last 20 years.

Maybe I am crying a wolf here, but I only see trouble no matter who wins with a narrow mandate.[/quote]

There will be some winners here and there, but I don’t see the broader market really moving upward. It’s been stuck where it is for some time, even though earnings haven’t been horrible. (Not great, not horrible).

Precious metals seem to be trickling up….

Locally, Qualcomm will probably have a good quarter. There’s a lot of excitement around the NXP acquisition. That should fuel the next 2-3 years of growth.

My capital gains tax bill will be pretty large this year, but I’m thinking better to pay taxes on an actual gain versus carrying over a capital loss for the next year or 2, lol.

Nasdaq looks like another down day. Eerily reminds me of the dot.com implosion.

[Coronita]

Just give people their money and subsidies. Big deal. So governments and municipalities run a deficit. Fine. Deal with it after it blows up. Rest assured, when/if it blows up, no one will be happy. Pensions, property owners, businesses, consumers, everyone. So take comfort that your favorite “you should pay your fair share/you should take your pay cut” will equally be part of the solution to fix the blowup.

America and americans are really good at deficit spending, so it’s no different from most of america.

[Coronita]

[quote=AN]

I’m actually kind of chuckling at this because it seems like this time, we’re doing the exact opposite. At the local level, I voted for every republican I could that wasn’t a trump supporter, and made sure all the democrats that either voted for SCA-5 or thought it was ok didn’t get my vote. [/quote]The main reason why I voted all Dems down ballot is because 1) like you, I want to vote for all the opponents of those who don’t refute Trump 2) I want to blow up the Republican party. Even if they don’t get blown up, at least I’m casting my protest vote, saying that it’s not OK for have Trump be your torchbearer.

[/quote]

I understand, but to be frank, I think a lot of decent republicans, especially at the local level, got caught up in this. There aren’t many sitting republicans in CA (well at least here, bay area, in LA) that are totally alt-right. The reasons why they are probably republicans to begin with is because they are anti-alt-left. Plenty of examples of sitting republicans that get get along just fine with all the other democrats in the middle. Punishing them is sort of like guilt by association imho.
It’s not so simple as dropping their party and running independent.

[quote=flu]I guess the difference here is my age versus your age. 8 years, this will impact my kid. and 20 years, I’ll probably be dead, so it won’t matter :)[/quote]I personally am a planner and I have confidence in myself to be able to handle whatever Trump or Clinton can throw at me. So, I’m not too concern about 4-8 years. However, I want my kids and grandkids to have more opportunities and success. Which is why I’m more concerned of 20+ years, even if I would be dead by then.[/quote]

Handling is one thing. I’m confident most people can handle it. We just don’t have to like it.

BTW: I’m too lazy too look. But would you mind summarizing BG’s last post in 1 sentence, if there’s anything useful to deduce from it? I’ve stopped opening her posts, since I found the S/N ratio is much more attenuated if I just dialog with everyone else. plus, if I pretend that people like that don’t really exist in the world, it makes me feel this country has hope 🙂 Thanks!

[Coronita]

The thing that really bothers me about this sort of arrangement is that it seems to heavily depends on a the sale of a home in Europe from a relative (presumably a parent), that happens at a later date.

To me, the money that is earmarked to be used to pay for the second mortgage doesn’t appear to be “guaranteed”. What IF the OP can’t get $150k out of that home sale in Europe? Then what?

In the past I took out HELOC’s on my primary up to $200k to short term finance my rental property purchases. But I only did so, because I knew that worst comes to worst I could pay them off if rates rose suddenly, and I knew I could refinance the condos into a fixed 30 year loan after closing escrow after the waiting period.

[Coronita]

[quote=AN][quote=flu]There’s plenty of rhetoric being through from that side on high tech workers, forign workers, and H1-Bs.[/quote]Rhetoric is one thing. Actual proposal is another. At least no one on the right actually proposed affirmative action.

[/quote]

No, alt-right isn’t proposing affirmative action. They are proposing shipping foreigners home, qualified or not. It’s as if shipping a bunch of P.H.d’s home sudden will free up jobs for these guys, with no education, to fulfill. I know you and I both know this is ridiculous, but it sure doesn’t seem like alt-right gets it.. And an extension to this is “go back to india/asia”, applied to anyone that looks like that. It’s not that you are physically really going to be kicked out. Those sort of biases have very interesting ways of creeping up. Remember when a few weeks ago, the discussion of colleges brought here such to some suggested as structuring TOFEL exams in such a way that it was much harder for people from China specifically to pass? That’s the mentality of alt-right. Alt-right really doesn’t believe in equality based on merit. Only when it is convenient to talk about eliminating AA on one hand, and yet quota limiting certain groups on the other, or “making it much harder for them”, as some alt-right suggest. There’s huge difference between the mentality of what is in the center, those that truly believe equality and merit based rewards. And there are those on extreme on both sides of the spectrum that all want to bend the rules in their own ways to benefit themselves, who can’t make it on merit alone.

[quote] The Republican is completely fractured and there are 3-4 other parties picking up the pieces and none will be able to compete with the $ from the Democrats and they have control of all 3 branches for decades. Now, that’s worse case scenario. Yes, that does bother me, but I personally think that’s a much much less likely scenario. Maybe you think this is likely if all you watch is Fox.
[/quote]

I don’t watch fox news, and barely watch CNN. I get most of my news from the BBC. But….I’m just merely pointing out the Republicans control both chambers of Congress. The number of House seats up for grabs is not going to put Democrats in the majority this election cycle. And the number of senate seats that the GOP is endanger of losing, is not going to be enough to allow any sort of anti-filibuster. Not that I’m a proponent of this as a negotiation tactic.

[quote]I personally give up the Republican party just as I’ve given up the Democrat party in the past. I view them both as hypocrites. It’s funny you’re saying all of the bullshit that is the current Republican party. Those are the exact reason why I’ve given up on them I see them as nothing but hypocrites. Small government my ass. Same as the Dems, pro choice my ass. I personally would like to see the Alt-Right blow up the republican party. I’m tired of these spineless Republicans in congress.
[/quote]

I agree both are hypocrites. And I should have been clear. Bullshit happens in both party. There’s the typical political bullshit, you just accept that it’s just a bunch of politicians hand waving, and going with the flow. And then there’s someone who is so blunt on projecting racism and more than 40+% of the american population is ok with it. That’s disturbing. That to me makes me think are we really doing that much better, or are we moving backwards.

[quote]personally think there aren’t as many hardcore Trump supporter who think like what you’re describing. I’m guessing around 20% of the Republican, which is about 5% of Americans. The rest either are just tired of the political class and just want to blow shit up or they’re exactly like you and are voting for the lesser of the two evil.
[/quote]
Maybe, I would like you to be correct

[quote] But I did vote for ALL Dems in the down ballot with hope to blow up the Republican party.
[/quote]

I don’t get this. Why? In CA, there are more republicans that are more moderate than at the national level. Many don’t even agree with what is coming out of Alt-right, and have even gone on record being anti-alt-right/trumpist, well before Trump’s ratings took a nose dive. If you don’t want what something like SCA-5 to happen again, in CA, you don’t want to see CA state assembly/senate regain a supermajority.

I’m actually kind of chuckling at this because it seems like this time, we’re doing the exact opposite. At the local level, I voted for every republican I could that wasn’t a trump supporter, and made sure all the democrats that either voted for SCA-5 or thought it was ok didn’t get my vote.

[quote]
Well, Hillary did vote for the Iraq war, going into and staying in Afghanistan, going into and staying in Libya, going into and staying in Syria. So, in term of war, I’m not sure she’ll do anything different than Bush or Obama.
[/quote]

Ok, good point…

[quote=flu]I guess this is what’s causing us to diverge in deciding who to vote for. I view 4-8 years as short term. I’m sure I can do more than survive 4-8 years regardless of Trump or Hillary. I don’t think both can do that much serious damage in 4-8 years, which I consider as short term. Long term to me is more like 20+ years. I look at the policies both are peddling and see how it will affect me, my kids, my grand kids, etc.[/quote]

I guess the difference here is my age versus your age. 8 years, this will impact my kid. and 20 years, I’ll probably be dead, so it won’t matter 🙂

[Coronita]

I’m not going to try to provide mortgage advice, since I’m not a loan officer. The best bet would be fore you to consult a loan guy. There is a guy that occasionally visits here named “HLS”. Send him a private message from your account ,and he’s usually pretty good at responding over PM….

[Coronita]

[quote=AN]flu, I don’t remember ever seeing anything about Trump supporter pushing for quota or affirmative action. Keep in mind his core supporters are not college educated and they feel more threaten by those who take their skilled/unskilled union jobs than high tech works. So, I’m not threaten by their fear.
[/quote]

There’s plenty of rhetoric being through from that side on high tech workers, forign workers, and H1-Bs.

[quote]
Also, I’m pretty you’re fully aware than presidents don’t make bills and laws.
[/quote]

Yes, but he does set a lot of precedence. There’s the appointment to the supreme court and there’s executive orders. And a long list of other things that can be done.

[quote]
So, I’m more afraid of one party taking full control of all 3 branches. Bad shit tends to happen when that happen. Although, I did vote for Peters because Denise Gitsham endorses Trump, so, maybe I’m shooting myself in the foot with this one.
[/quote]

I agree. And that has crossed my mind/

In the worst case scenario, we see Hillary win, and Democrats taking over Senate, not taking over House, neither of which is enough to stop a filibuster.

In the other scenario, Republicans maintain control both House and Senate and Trump wins, since it’s unlikely Trump would win, while GOP down-ballot senators/house reps lose their seats in the majority. In that case, we would have the lop-sided government. What are the prospects of a Republican only government? Doesn’t that bother you?

I’m more concerned the ALT-Right completely taking over the republican party. Then what? Republican core values are quickly being eroded. No one on the right is really talking about fiscal responsibility, responsible spending, hard work, effort. The same thing coming out of alt-right is the same thing is coming out of far alt-left. It’s someone else’s fault, blame THEM. No one wants to accept responsibility for their own outcome anymore. On top of that, then you got a government that will spend more time on bullshit social conservatism (anti-gay rights, anti-women’s rights, more religious nutjob bullshit), not of which was ever particularly appealing to some of us in the middle anyway.

Republicans establishment never in the past picked a fight with “foreign workers”. Trump changed a lot of this. It starts with illegals, and low skill workers. And then there’s grumblings about H1-Bs and foreign workers…How much longer do you think that the hate over foreign workers and H1-B’s boil over to anyone that looks foreign? This is why I feel this sort of thinking is dangerous. It might not concern you or me right now, since neither of us are hispanic, illegal or muslim. But when does the line get drawn and when does it stop? Answer it won’t. Because none of the uneducated, unskilled people will ever be happy because they won’t ever realize the reason why they are left behind has nothing to do with what everyone else is doing, but rather it has everything to do with what they themselves are not doing. But along the way, they will continue to find every excuse and every reason why they are being left behind…

I understand the need for a torch bearer to push back against all the ridiculous policies of affirmative action, reverse discrimination, and for someone to truly represent an equal, impartial viewpoint that ability and ability alone should be the only test for some opportunity. Unfortunately, that torch bearer is no way in hell donald trump, and no way in hell any of Trump’s supporters, who are using this only as an excuse for why themselves fall short.

Does things like that fox ridicule of chinatown bother you at all? I mean, we’re talking prime time. You think fox would have done something like this in Harlem?

I’m not really trying to convince you, just letting you know where I’m coming from. As pretty good friends with you, I totally respect your position on things, as I can totally understand how in a lot of ways a lot of us have been, well short changed, by bullshit things like what SCA-5 almost tried to do. My take on this is..Fight the current present danger, and fight the other danger when we have more time 🙁

[quote]
I understand you don’t particularly like Hillary. I just pointed out one particular group of people who hate Hillary to a point where they would vote for Trump all the while hoping he’ll get impeached. This is why I don’t think guys like Trump will be able to do too much damage. If Clinton can get impeached for the Monica shit, then Trump would be impeached much faster if he ever pull any of the shit you’re worried about.
[/quote]

It’s actually pretty hard to get impeached, it appears. Didn’t we go to war in Iraq on a big lie? Still waiting for those WMD’s….

[quote]
I understand your position on the market and I don’t really object them. Except for the your fear of Trump causing a long term market decline. I think if he does win, it would be a short term pull back, then the market will recover shortly after. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.[/quote]

My definition of long term is probably most people’s definition of short term. I consider 4 years already pretty long. 8 would be an eternity. I don’t expect the damage to be longer than that. But nevertheless it still would suck.

[Coronita]

.

[Coronita]

[quote=Blogstar]
Before someone flames me, I am not real familiar with this , and the OP’s post was not very clear.[/quote]

Yup, it wasn’t very clear. I guess the goal of this is to split the loan amount into two loans, one that you know you’ll pay off in the short term before rates adjust.

Assuming the funds are going to come in for the second loan in the short term.

[Coronita]

[quote=AN]You’re comparing tech to the .com bubble. So, you’re right, it took 8 years to get back to where it was. But that mean it got back to bubble level. Just like RE during Obama. It took 8 years to get back to about bubble level. But that does not mean it was in decline for 8 years. During 1-2 years after the crash, it was difficult to find jobs. The abundance of options wasn’t there. However, it wasn’t hard to find at least one or two position available.

It’s funny you said a lot tech worker wasn’t in position to buy assets in 2001-6, but those experienced people had an opportunity to sell their stocks at bubble price and buy RE. If you’re talking about younger people, I know many who did buy around that time, since they don’t have much problem finding jobs either. I guess where you stand depend on where you sit.

As for not targeting a specific ethnic group, you’re right. I personally expect it to continue. After all, those who really want to target a specific group is a small % of the population. The rest who are voting for Trump use the same logic you’re using to vote for Hillary. They think she’s worse for them than he would be. So, I would be say there won’t be enough support to get any law pass to target a specific ethnic group.

I just had a conversation with someone who voted for Trump. She held her nose and voted for him while hoping he’ll get impeached and Pence will take over. I wonder if there’s enough of those people out there to push him over the top. She’s even worse than you flu. At least you half way like Hillary and aren’t hoping she’ll get indited and get put in jail or get impeached. But that also shows how much Hillary is hated by some people where they would vote for Trump while hoping he’ll get impeached, because to them, Hillary is worse.

BTW, I personally think bills like SCA-5 does target a specific ethnic group. Imagine if SCA-5 got passed nationally.[/quote]

The supreme court already ruled in favor of affirmative action for it back in June (Fisher v. UT Austin), 4-3 (Scalia died, and one judge abstained from voting). So it’s unlikely it will get overturned for some time. It’s a done deal. And what I have learned, those from the Trump camp aren’t exactly for “equal admissions policies” either. Some of them are exactly for quota limiting Asians and Indians if there are “too many of them”… We’ve seen cases even here on Piggs. That’s usually what happens when one group ends up doing better than average, and there’s a sense of injustice that that happened, because for whatever reason they feel left behind.

And, I think you mistaken my assertion. I don’t particular “like” Hillary. Had the top ticket been Romney or even Kasich or Rubio… Hillary wouldn’t have even been a consideration.

The best we can hope for is a 1 term president.

Regardless of the outcome, I’m just financially positioning for a financial disaster for one particular term from one particular person. I do think this time it’s different. We’ve never had such a polarizing/irrational candidate in modern times, and his odds of wining I think just went up significantly.

If I’m correct, I’ll stay out of the markets for some time. If I’m not correct, that’s fine too, I’ll move slowly back after November.

The markets really haven’t moved that much this year anyway, unless you happen to have been in and out of positions. I only averaged about 12% so far, and mainly offset by the few companies that were bought out from acquisitions. Earnings aren’t great, and the markets moving because of acquisitions and mergers ….If you look at how some of the small/mid tech companies are doing, the unicorn is being reeled in.

[Coronita]

I love this thread… It’s the thread that keeps giving.

One one side, we have two pension recipients, that are huge proponents of our fed/state continuing to pay the say level of benefits even if it means bankrupting the state..

On the other side, we have one that owns rental property(maybe properties) because he inherited it from his parents, and spends all day posting blogs about public pension crisis, peak oil .and yet talks about his “work building on what his parents built”…

No wonder this country is going down the tubes….No one wants to really work and make hard choices anymore.

[Coronita]

I don’t understand what you are asking. You’re going to be buying a house, presumably one that is more expensive that will result in larger payments. You want to lower your payments, so you want to bring $150k extra to the table and reduce the loan amount from $400k to $250k, so the monthly would be lower….

…But you currently don’t have $150k, so you are hoping to tap into a HELOC to borrow $150k, until your parents/family sell a home in Europe, which you could then use to pay off the HELOC….

Question: if you’re buying a house with a loan, how do you plan on getting a HELOC at the same time on the same property? Also, if you borrow $400k, what is your LTV going to be? Is there going to be $150k worth of equity for you to tap?

[Author]

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