[Coronita]

[quote=masayako][quote=flu][quote=masayako]It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested.[/quote]

you would have singing a different tune if things went the other way. just saying…[/quote]

True, probably. I still wouldn’t sell, would probably buy more shares when it dropped. Admit failure is the first step to success.[/quote]

I already admitted I was wrong on this call on a different thread. I’m not sure what you mean by “success” and “failure”. It’s a one time event, I would hate to think my entire net worth depends on calling one thing correct. Afterall, if that were the case, one could make the argument that those that missed out on the real estate boom post crash “failed” or succeeded too. Well anyway, whatever. I’m not complaining about a Trump rally. Which probably means I’m not all in cash anymore..But I’ve learned never to call the markets publicly again, because well, the last time I did, it was pretty much wrong….Which is why I stopped commenting about the stock market publicly.

[Coronita]

[quote=masayako]It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested.[/quote]

you would have singing a different tune if things went the other way. just saying…

[Coronita]

I think a lot of engineers that work on robotics, software, controls, and even mech e’s are going to have a promising future. US companies will be under pressure to keep manufacturing in the U.S. U.S. companies will take whatever tax incentives/government money they get and try to automate the crap out of their factories to stay competitive. They’ll need to hire brains who can build these systems, quickly, much more so than hiring people to work the assembly lines.

[Coronita]

So about Carrier saving those 1000 jobs….Read the fine print from the CEO of Carrier himself. They chose to stay because they will use the incentives to automate the factory so it can remain competitive with companies that are using labor in mexico. CEO admits this will lead to fewer jobs in Indiana… But at least the company stays in the U.S….lol…

Again, those manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back because companies will always find a cheaper way to do it than hire american workers and pay them a lot for assembly line work. And they need to, in order to stay competitive on the world markets…

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceo-united-technologies-just-let-231538059.html

In a wide-ranging interview with CNBC’s Mad Money with Jim Cramer aired December 5, Hayes set out the comparative advantages of moving to jobs to Mexico, the motivation behind his decision to keep those jobs in Indiana, and the ultimate outcome of the deal: there will be fewer manufacturing jobs in Indiana.

First, Hayes was asked what’s so good about Mexico. Quite a lot, it turns out. From the transcript (emphasis added):

GREG HAYES: So what’s good about Mexico? We have a very talented workforce in Mexico. Wages are obviously significantly lower. About 80% lower on average. But absenteeism runs about 1%. Turnover runs about 2%. Very, very dedicated workforce.

JIM CRAMER: Versus America?

GREG HAYES: Much higher. And I think that’s just part of these– the jobs, again, are not jobs on assembly line that people really find all that attractive over the long term. Now I’ve got some very long service employees who do a wonderful job for us. And we like the fact that they’re dedicated to UTC, but I would tell you the key here, Jim, is not to be trained for the job today. Our focus is how do you train
people for the jobs of tomorrow?

So Mexico has cheaper labor with a much more dedicated workforce, and these are the kinds of low-skilled jobs most people don’t find that attractive. Elsewhere in the interview, he made clear that United Technologies intends to keep engineering jobs in the US, and that these higher-skilled jobs are not at risk of being moved overseas.

“The assembly lines in Indiana– I mean, great people. Great, great people. But the skill set to do those jobs very different than what it takes to assemble a jet engine,” he said.

Hayes was then asked why he decided to cancel the move to Mexico. From the transcript (emphasis added):

GREG HAYES: So– there was a cost as we thought about keeping the Indiana plant open. At the same time, and I’ll tell you this because you and I, we know each other, but I was born at night but not last night. I also know that about 10% of our revenue comes from the US government. And I know that a better regulatory environment, a lower tax rate can eventually help UTC of the long run.

The result of keeping the plant in Indiana open is a $16 million investment to drive down the cost of production, so as to reduce the cost gap with operating in Mexico.
What does that mean? Automation. What does that mean? Fewer jobs, Hayes acknowledged.

GREG HAYES: Right. Well, and again, if you think about what we talked about last week we’re going to make a $16 million investment in that factory in Indianapolis to automate to drive the cost down so that we can continue to be competitive. Now is it as cheap as moving to Mexico with lower cost labor? No. But we will make that plant competitive just because we’ll make the capital investments there.

JIM CRAMER: Right.

GREG HAYES: But what that ultimately means is there will be fewer jobs.

[Coronita]

So here is something interesting. I was at UCSD Thornton Hospital and two things I noticed.

1. They removed all the parking gates and parking attendants and replaced them with self service kiosk.

2. Checking into the hospital, you no longer wait a long time for a clerk to check you in. You self check in at one of the 4 computer kiosks. If you have problems, 1 person is there overseeing all the kiosks.

Yup, automation replaced a lot of hospital clerical work too.

Those jobs aren’t coming back.

[Coronita]

So originally I thinking that the U.S. was going to be messed up with Trump at the helm, while the rest of the world more organized is going to jump ahead of the U.S.

I’m beginning to think of the opposite. Maybe it’s Trump’s genius to do this. Or maybe it’s just his plain ignorance that ends up producing the same results….But the scenario I’m thinking is that by a few subtle things Trump does, he ends up causing so much conflict abroad, that the rest of the world ends up being just as screwed up, if not more screwed up, than we will be.

Take this taiwan/china issue. In one little phone call, if Trump manages to destabilize Asia, that’s pretty impressive. I mean, combined with the idea of U.S. pulling out of Asia politics, I wonder if this would start an arms race back there. The greatest threat to progress is if you have with ethnicity get into conflict with themselves. And this China/Taiwan spat might just do the trick back there. Although my roots is Taiwanese and I am pro-taiwan independence…I’d like to get the point that we don’t split hairs and say things like “I’m not chinese, I’m taiwanese” and vice versus. It doesn’t help the greater cause for asians in the 21st century, imho. And I personally wouldn’t want to see either Taiwan or China fail, since I have no desire to seeing us asians set back in progress.

edit:

looks like it was intentional…
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/nation-world/ct-donald-trump-taiwan-call-20161204-story.html

[Coronita]

Lol. I laughed.

China sure got its panties all bunched up.
.or maybe that’s Trump’s plan afterall, and he’s smarter than people give him credit for.

[Coronita]

Well it looks like my 10% stock holding recently just became closer to now 20% stock holding. My bank and FNMA is on a tear…

I can’t believe FNMA has gone from under $2/share a few weeks ago to now $4/share. Time to put stop orders in place, just in case.

Deregulate please.

[Coronita]

[quote=flyer]Thanks flu. I’m sure you have waiting lists, as we do, especially for our sfh’s, but since several of their employees rent from us, we still like to try to stay aware of what’s going on in the local job market.[/quote]

You are more likely to lose your tenant because they got sick and tired of renting and decided to cash in stock grants to buy a SFH than you are to lose a tenant due to a layoff, imho. Unless your tenant isn’t in core engineering (ie in IT/support,etc). the market isn’t that bad such that they wouldn’t be able to find something else to do in San Diego. And ever since the NXP acquisition, the stock has been bouncing from an all time low. Also, they’ve been handing out pretty generous retention bonuses to get people to stay in core engineering.

For a SFH assuming in north country, I am surprised you would have a waitlist. I see plenty of SFH around my area that hasn’t been filled. Either those owners are asking too much, or you are asking too little 🙂

[Coronita]

There’s always a slow regular layoff in non-core groups. More of the core groups have the opposite problem of retaining people.

I’d say Intel is in deeper sh!t, especially if Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 835 spec leaks are true, using Samsung 10nm. Wondering when Intel is going to pull the plug on mobile (again).

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Qualcomm-Snapdragon-835-specs-leaked-it-could-power-the-Galaxy-S8_id88132

[Coronita]

[quote=gzz]It is a 2/2. The first year “cash on cash” return is about 3.5%, including principal reduction it is about 8%.

I estimate conservatively rent will rise 15% in 5 years and HOA tax and insurance will rise 10% which will produce a year-5 cash return of 5.4% and total return of 11.8%.

That then has to be adjusted up to account for the fact depreciation allows the rental profit taxes be deferred, or not paid at all if I die owning it and the basis readjusts.

Ultimately I think I may not hold it that long as I think we will have another bubble and I will sell it then.[/quote]

That’s pretty darn good imho… Kudos

[Coronita]

Just curious. What’s the spec on your place… Size, Purchase price, rent price… I’m just curious how this pencils out.

Congrats!

[Coronita]

[quote=mixxalot]I was at the beach yesterday and amazed to see tons of tourists! Few restaurants were open so wonder why anyone would want to deal with airport travel and lack of places to eat? Seems like folks no longer make a turkey dinner![/quote]

You can always find a Chinese or Korean restaurant open. Haven’t you seen the movie A Christmas Story?

[Coronita]

15% off Carmel valley 5k if you register with promotion code GobbleGobble before the 27th.

Lol, you need to pay someone something to run….anyway proceeds go to your education charity if choice.

http://carmelvalley5k.com

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Why should we celebrate a bunch of fundie fanatics not being burnt at the stake, being killed by Indians, or sinking in the middle of the Atlantic, as they richly deserved?[/quote]

Because we live in Umerica.
We should be greatful for what we have.

Sometimes some people take that for granted.

[Author]

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