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CoronitaParticipantI still don’t get the definition of what is market timing as used in this thread and the previous one.
It just seems like we’re calling market timing as a decision that doesn’t go the way you thought it would go and as a result of your incorrect guess, that was market timing , a poor decision..
Versus a decision you make to get out of the market in whole or part at a time when the market directions goes the way you guessed. Then that’s not market timing.. that’s just wise financial decision making for asset protection.
I guess I am dumb and just don’t understand the difference.
I am at an autocross waiting in between runs , so I am bored and thought I’d camp out here today.
CoronitaParticipantThe other thing is regarding the argument that “if you simply raise pay” more people would be doing it, since there is no labor shortage.
I’m not sure I agree with that. Whether people want to admit it or not, there are certain jobs with skillsets that people will not do even if pay is raised, simply because they can’t do it. Whether they lack the skill, or lack the ability or lack both, “spoon fed training” won’t close that gap, even if pay is good.
If that were the case, everyone would end up being a doctor or lawyer, and we would have even fewer engineers 🙂 I mean, here we have two cases when the pay is REALLY REALLY good. These two professions don’t have any sort of H1-B “problem”…Why aren’t more people flocking to be a doctor or lawyer if they are so discontent with being an IT worker?
Same could be said about engineering. Again, i think it’s one of the things that frankly not many people can do (or can do well, at least). If Qualcomm right now paid embedded software architects/engineers $300k, how many people really would have the skillset and ability to do that job right now? Not many. A few of us have the ability to self -retrain and retool. But many people, simply don’t have the aptitude for this kind of work of flipping bits and bytes… In as much as some other people don’t have the aptitude to do other kinds of work like for example a lot of the trade jobs too. And those people won’t have the aptitude simply to pick up and self-training and catch up with people with that aptitude. In as much as I couldn’t simply pick up a textbook on human anatomy and be trained to be a doctor within the next few years. It just doesn’t work that way. This isn’t simply a job in which you need to turn a bolt, or fasten a trim where you can be easily taught. There’s an entire aspect of mental capacity (whether it’s nature ability or trained through decades of education) that I think people are way over simplifying and glossing over.
Time after time again, we’ve seen a few IT workers here on piggington ask “what’s the hottest job, that pays the most”… because they are disgruntled with their current job/career ….to which some of us have said Mobile Software and/or SAP and/or something else”….And a few months later, the same people ask the same question, re-echoing that they are still doing what they were doing, perhaps still unhappy with their current job/profession/lone of work and not retrained after any of the new opportunities…If this was so easy to do in practice (higher pay, more people flock to those jobs), we wouldn’t have situations like this.
High pay in a profession wouldn’t immediately solve this problem because I don’t think you can’t fix a skills gap that requires decades of education/mental training that some people simply opted out of all this time. All the people that decided not to take STEM education seriously ever since grade school and/or have no interest in STEM. What it would do is influence parents and kids to perhaps revisit whether they should take a STEM career path more seriously. This would take, imho, one generation to fix. It would benefit a few of us that are already in the business, we would get paid for essentially doing the same work without any more need to do more….Personally, I wouldn’t mind…But that would also probably mean consumers would be paying a lot more for things. Afterall, someone would have to be paying for it so that I could then be maintaining a new porsche instead of a miata….lol….But the number of people that never have done this work and simply self-train and suddenly can do this work? Not many..
CoronitaParticipant[quote=AN]Data doesn’t lie. Here’s what QCOM is paying their Sr. Software Engineer H1B (most if not all have a Master): http://h1bdata.info/index.php?em=QUALCOMM&job=SENIOR+SOFTWARE+ENGINEER&city=SAN+DIEGO&year=2016
Here’s what their salary looks like for all Sr. Software Engineer: https://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Qualcomm-Senior-Software-Engineer-San-Diego-Salaries-EJI_IE640.0,8_KO9,33_IL.34,43_IM758.htm
I’m pretty sure this salary discrepancy exist at other companies too.[/quote]
I think the data from Glassdoor is much different from the data from the h1bdata website.
1. The h1bdata website is verified data. The Glassdoor data is user contributed, and who knows if the user generated content is true.
2. Glassdoor data encompasses all Senior Software Engineers, across all levels and number of years of service. The h1bdata website, on the other hand, shows the starting salary of people that were hired.
The upper $125k+ range show on Glassdoor probably reflect people who have been a Senior Software Engineer for some time, those that are closer to Staff Engineer who haven’t been promoted yet.
At least when I was hired by Qualcomm, the salaries that H1-Bs were offered were without +-$3000 from non H1-B hires like me. In fact, I was paid lower than the H1-Bs. I think that had to do with my then lack of negotiating ability than anything else, as I was just out of school and was naive to believe when people said “non-negotiable”….while as some of my peers with H1-Bs had competing offers from Nortel, so they got QC to match the comp packages.
Also, across departments and roles, Senior Software Engineer pay varies quite differently. A Senior Software Engineer in the test group weren’t paid the same as a Senior Software Engineer in Corp R&D, etc… This was a disparity among the job role itself, not H1-B versus non-H1-B… When a lot of us talked amongst each other , we didn’t see the H1-B pay versus the non-H1-B pay drastically differ within the same role/department. What we did see was Corp R&D Senior Software Engineers were paid a heck of a lot better than QCT Senior Software Engineers, despite title being the same, and despite the folks in QCT working longer hours than Corp R&D.
Lastly, I think many of us have been through the Qualcomm interview process. And all of us know what goes on in the process. Even before you get to the point of negotiating salary/comp packages, you have to go through the ridiculous number of technical questions and on a whiteboard problem solving, where many of us flunk out an never get a call back for a specific position. And if you recall, during that grueling day long interview process with 6-8 different engineers, sometimes interview with an entire panel, at no point did your salary requirements even come up. And then it was up to you after your got your package to see if you could negotiate something better.
So maybe the issue is that people on H1-B’s tend not to renegotiate their package? If so, is this really that much different from any pay disparity in general, like between men and women? And if so, how would you fix that? Do we need to regulate companies to make all salaries “non-negotiable” and the same? Seriously, it’s a tradeoff. Personally, I like the flexibility to be able to negotiate comp packages, but maybe for others, they just aren’t good at this and that’s why there’s a huge discrepancy.
I’m not saying H1-B abuse doesn’t happen. It does, particularly in IT chopshops and IT contracting shops. But imho it probably happens a lot less than people think it does in tech, especially at a large company where all this is much more visible. The bigger “job killer” is offshoring the entire operation to a remote office location. for a company like QC, it make much more sense for a company to move an entire development team to a remote office location, and pay those people 1/10 the salary as someone here….versus hiring an H1-B, going through the legal/immigration trouble, and still having to pay that person by US wage standards, if cost was the only concern.
CoronitaParticipantWait….Ah hem.. If you recall….
https://piggington.com/i_went_90_cash_today
Just a few weeks ago, when the Trump rally started, and some of us (me included ) were on the wrong side of the fence thinking that the market was going to correct because there was no longer a positive indication to keep driving markets higher and that Trump might cause serious damage to the stock market, folks were saying timing the markets don’t work, why get out based on a whim….
But now, at dow 20k, people are now calling “peak” and getting out, thinking a correction is going to happen soon, and they want to avoid a correction…
Isn’t this market timing too? And isn’t the only difference between you folks now calling the top now and getting out and when I was doing it before Trump became president….the same exact thing that some of you say we shouldn’t be doing? And the only thing different between us is that one of us was more correct out of luck than anything else? For argument saying let’s say down goes to 25k (not saying it will)…Then, was your missed gain also due to poor market timing?
I’m not trying to bust anyone’s chop here. Just trying to understand what the heck is the difference between someone calling “top” 2 months ago and getting out for the sake of asset protection “just in case” something bad happens, and someone calling “top” right now, with the exception that one of us guessed right?
I don’t get it.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=ocrenter]
Once Irvine got the two Ranch 99 markets within 10 minutes of each other, it has never looked back. Ranch 99 is very conservative, so unless they have the numbers to sustain two stores, they would not have made their move. With the new Balboa store and them keeping the old Clairemont Mesa store open, the floodgate now opens…[/quote]There’s a reason why they did this. Someone in my circle knows the people that run the place in San Diego.
The two stores exist and the do sort of cannibalize each other’s sales. The reason why they did this was if they didn’t there was going to be someone else that was going to do it (IE a korean supermarket). And then that would have impacted their sales. So, the thought was to have two locations to minimize another competitor.
CoronitaParticipantIve noticed also the rich there are trying to GTFO out China before the economy crashes and the ruling party goes after all the rich people.
CoronitaParticipantThe thing with Trump is that I am.trying to stay away from big name companies.It only takes one of his 144 characters Twitter rants to sink a stock a few percentage points.
CoronitaParticipantSpeaking of shorting the market…
This story (though it probably is fake), is a gentle reminder of the golden rule:
The markets can stay longer than you can stay solvent.“Trader bets his $250k on apple getting crushed after earnings”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-trader-bets-it-all-on-apple-getting-crushed-after-earnings-2017-01-30
““IT IS SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE FOR APPLE TO SPIKE UP POST-EARNINGS,” Comeau wrote. “It didn’t happen to Google GOOG, +0.48% GOOGL, +0.42% , it didn’t happen to Western Digital WDC, -0.30% , Qualcomm QCOM, +0.91% or even Intel INTC, +0.16% or Microsoft (2%! Yay!) MSFT, +0.21% , despite excellent earnings (which Apple won’t have).””Disclaimer: it might be a fake
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-trader-loses-massive-bet-or-did-he-2017-02-01
Personally, I am pretty happy those that were shorting AMD when the stock was around $2.50/share thinking it was going to go bankrupt anyday back then got their azz kicked bigtime. But that’s a different story…. heh heh.
I know, I know..IT’S ALL RIGGED!!!!
CoronitaParticipantI think that because now we se 85c Bakery and Ding Tai Fung soon to be in UTC, that’s a sign…
The cat is out of the bag, and San Diego has caught on…. I think what we’ll see is certain pockets in San Diego slowly turn into places like Irvine or Diamond Bar, etc.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=no_such_reality][quote=flu]Oh please. Stop with the refugee coming and killing people hysteria. How many refugees to date have committed mass murderer in the us?
Versus how many domestic citizens committed mass murder with their easy access to getting a gun?
Let’s see.
Movie theater massacre.
Elementary school shootings.
Workplace shootings.
Middle and high school shooting.
Murder of Christina Grimmie…How many of these were done by Muslim refugees.
Almost all of these were committed by , for the lack of better word, gun toting american white people. But, when they do it..We call that mental illness. Because we want keep the status quo on ease access to guns.
You and your kids are probably more likely to get killed by a gun nut with mental illness or someone with bad case of road rage than a refugee. I worry more about that than the refugees.[/quote]
Hey hey hey now, stop making sense. Next thing you know you’ll be talking about extreme vetting of people purchasing multiple weapons of moderate destruction.[/quote]
Lol…. Sorry for the off tangent… But this was funny…
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/02/politics/house-vote-guns-mental-illnesses/index.html
“House rolls back rule restricting gun sales to severely mentally ill”Ok, so it’s ok to sell guns to mentally ill people, but when it comes to refugees, they are far more dangerous? You can’t make this shit up. Lol.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=no_such_reality][quote=flu]
if we don’t have any other advantage versus some “cheap player”… [/quote]How do you develop advantages when you strip mine your own industry and send it elsewhere?
[/quote]Easy, follow how Qualcomm wins in China again all the super low cost players that can offer very similar competitive offerings. Well until Apple tried to screw that up with this FTC lawsuit…..
And then contrast that with other players like Broadcom, Marvel, and to a lesser extent MediaTek who all try to compete on cost. Hint: most of them are no longer in that business anymore.
Now, if you make the argument that Qualcomm’s patent royalty gravy train isn’t really core business and providing jobs for say those that are making the modems/chips. I disagree. We all know that in the real world, when you have a large company, about 20-25% of the employees and company ends up generating the cash cow for the remaining 75-80% of the employees/jobs at the company. Same could be said for any other company.
Or for auto industry, build a premium product so that you can charge a fat margin on, so that you can afford the higher cost labor, with presumably higher workmanship…. I guess that’s how BMW gets away with running factories in the U.S….
Or… Move your factories to a state that has “right-to-work” laws and have very low minimum wages…..
Or don’t build low cost cars like ford focus/ford fiesta if they don’t pencil out….As they currently don’t in the U.S.
You think if GM builds a Buick in Detroit and ships it back to China, it can hold its marketshare there?
CoronitaParticipant[quote=lifeisgood][quote=flu]Oh please. Stop with the refugee coming and killing people hysteria. How many refugees to date have committed mass murderer in the us?
Versus how many domestic citizens committed mass murder with their easy access to getting a gun?
Let’s see.
Movie theater massacre.
Elementary school shootings.
Workplace shootings.
Middle and high school shooting.
Murder of Christina Grimmie…How many of these were done by Muslim refugees.
Almost all of these were committed by , for the lack of better word, gun toting american white people. But, when they do it..We call that mental illness. Because we want keep the status quo on ease access to guns.
You and your kids are probably more likely to get killed by a gun nut with mental illness or someone with bad case of road rage than a refugee. I worry more about that than the refugees.[/quote]
I completely agree with your entire statement. I said in my statement that most people coming here are hard working people that have no intent to harm anyone. You’re 100% right on having our own problematic citizens. We certainly don’t need anymore. Europe is seeing many more problems with their refugees committing crimes. I think we SHOULD ALLOW ANYONE to come to the US that has been properly vetted and wants to contribute. This isn’t a new idea. We, and the rest of the world control who comes in and out of its border. By the way, I don’t think Trump is handling any of these decisions on immigration the right way. He should utilize his experts in congress to come up with the best plan that we can. I am certainly not an immigration expert.
I really liked your opinion on the effect of limiting or doing away with working visas. It helped me a lot.[/quote]
I wasn’t directing this at you btw. It’s just funny that so many people are worried about refugees and the same people arent worried about guns. It’s as if they rationalize that since I am a responsible gun owner, everyone else that went through the vetting process is OK too and we don’t need to make the vetting process stronger. We don’t need to monitor gun owners. We don’t need gun owners to go through a medical exam every so often to see if they are still are mentally competent to own a gun the same way we test older people to see if they are physically competent to drive a car. Nor would support such intrusions to individual rights.
But when it comes to muslim refugees. Well shit, let’s attach a monitoring device to them because they could be a terrorist.
Boston bombers were from chechyna…I don’t see a ban from there.
CoronitaParticipantOh please. Stop with the refugee coming and killing people hysteria. How many refugees to date have committed mass murderer in the us?
Versus how many domestic citizens committed mass murder with their easy access to getting a gun?
Let’s see.
Movie theater massacre.
Elementary school shootings.
Workplace shootings.
Middle and high school shooting.
Murder of Christina Grimmie…How many of these were done by Muslim refugees.
Almost all of these were committed by , for the lack of better word, gun toting american white people. But, when they do it..We call that mental illness. Because we want keep the status quo on ease access to guns.
You and your kids are probably more likely to get killed by a gun nut with mental illness or someone with bad case of road rage than a refugee. I worry more about that than the refugees.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=no_such_reality]While I consider the relationship with China vitally important, I have concerns with some of the claimed benefits of globalization.
We’ve spent most of the last 100 years in our country, improving our standard living through recognizing and managing external costs: worker protections so that workers don’t get ground into sausage when they slip in the slaughter house, clean water acts so our rivers don’t burn, clean air acts so acid rain doesn’t kill land and the air kills us, pollution controls so toxic waste doesn’t destroy entire communities.
These improvements have resulted in a hiring standard of living and greater structural costs for doing business here.
So why do we think beneficial to trade where the economic advantage is they’re still ignoring all those external costs?
It often seems like we saying we first have to help the emerging markets clear cut all their forest, like we mistakenly did, before we help them establish sustainable forest management.
We could roll back the clean air act, clean water act, OSHA requirements here, the environment reviews, the pollution regulation, so we’re competitive does anybody think that’s a good idea?[/quote]
That’s fine. Just expect that, with the average american consumer tapped out, and our country knee deep in debt, there’s going to be very limited growth if all we do is count on domestic spending moving forward.
And we won’t be competitive in many industries outside of the US where there growth will be, if we don’t have any other advantage versus some “cheap player”… Even more of a reason why we need to hire immigrants with advanced technological knowhow. If we don’t, they will go somewhere else.
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