[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=flyer]And, not just “rich people,” dz. We also know a lot of people who, although they were not really in an optimum position to do so during The Great Recession, bet there would be a rebound, so they gathered all of the resources they had, and also invested. Of course, things could have gone either way, but, in retrospect, they are very glad they did.[/quote]

I called this gambling because if one were to read this, it literally said they “Bet” there would be a rebound, with all their resources. That is by definition gambling and risky. I am not criticizing the decision, just pointing out that it is/was a risky decision and only looks good in hindsight.

[/quote]

News flash. Every investment involves “risk”. The question isn’t whether there is “risk” or “no risk”. There’s risk for every investment with a decent return.

Things that have low to no risk will most likely have shitty returns/results. Why? Because if there is low/no risk, everyone and anyone would seize that opportunity, and then that opportunity would not be there because everyone would be doing it.

Same thing goes with people with shitty credit.
People who have shitty credit pay higher interest rates than people with good credit because people who have shitty credit have much higher risk for not being able to payback the loan, hence one needs to be compensated more for taking on that risk. Otherwise there’s no incentive to take on that extra risk, all else being equal. Why would I want to rent to someone with shitty credit for the same price as someone with 800+ credit score? That’s why people with shittier credit end up paying higher rent prices.

If you want an absolutely clarity and certainty before making financial decisions, it will never be the right time for you to do anything financially meaningful because you will always try to talk yourself out of taking a step forward… You might as well just put all your money in a CD and cash and don’t complain about shitty returns or falling behind financially.

If you can’t tell the difference between those calculated investment risks that one does need to take to move the needle forward, versus betting on red at Vegas, then good luck to you. The next 20 years will be the same as the previous 20 years for you.

You’re looking for perfection to pull the trigger. It’s the direct opposite of people that is completely reckless…. Neither extremes will get one very far in the long run.

The correct decision usually is somewhere in between and one is one’s worst enemy in that decision process.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Rich Toscano]
But the main thing I remember from back then was that 90% of the bulls went straight to ad hominem. I could write some long article with data, charts, analysis, etc, and the entirety of the response would be, “You’re just a bitter renter.”[/quote]

So clearly you don’t read much on this site. Nearly every single response to my posts from SDR and FLU are the same ad hominem attacks you mention. “You have an axe to grind”, “You are bitter because you missed the opportunity of a lifetime”, etc. etc. Same tired, irrelevant attacks. Exactly what you described experiencing yourself. Strange to me how you support them today, quite ironic.[/quote]

Because you the “data” of what you bring is just plain wrong *most* of the time. And you even said it right here…

[quote=deadzone]…

And on to money laundering, what I am really referring to is all the cash purchases made by foreign buyers, (Chinese primarily, a lot of Mexican too in this area) who are investing in US assets to hide their money from their own
governments, whether due to tax or other reasons. This is very common but impossible to quantify.[/quote]

You even admit it, you have no data to back what you are “trying” to pass off as a fact. And you do this all the time.

Also, you keep trying saying this…

[quote=deadzone]
Meanwhile, Rich of all people calling me out for this? Seriously, I am the only active participant on this forum that is expecting a RE crash, of course it looks like I’m picking fights because there is nobody else here with that view apparently. Everyone else is so heavily invested in RE that they can’t bear (no pun intended) to hear it.
[/quote]

Maybe it makes you feel better to think this way, but it’s only in your alternative reality. Truth is, People who bought property 10-12 years ago, even with a correction now, will still be light years ahead. That’s 10-12 years of money put into their own equity instead of giving it to a landlord. Or 10-12 years of continuous positive cash flow… And 10-12 years having loans at the lowest possible rates for the next 15,30 years, if any at all. Or in some cases, having no loans because the markets were so good, that money made in one investment was cashed in to pay off debt and now have no to little debt.

Even with $0 appreciation, there was a heck of lot more benefits than not buying 10-12 years ago….No matter how you slice and dice what you think might happen now wrto a “correction”, that won’t change. Appreciation is just icing on the cake.

There’s 10-12 years of unwind that would need to happen to be at the same financial state as someone(s) that took no action 10-12 years ago. And even so, there’s 10-12 years of money given to a landlord for those that didn’t pull the trigger that they would need to make up versus 10-12 years of people that sunk the same money into their own property.

That’s the truth based on people’s financial state right now who pulled the trigger 10-12 years ago that apparently seems like bothers the heck out of you. And why you appear so combative and when people point this out, that whatever decisions you make now isn’t going to make up the difference that people made 10-12 years ago. So, I wouldn’t focus on trying to “get even” and be made whole from the past 10-12 years, since you’ll be disappointed… just focus on yourself to make your financial state better from this part on since what is done is done.

[Coronita]

Back to the original subject of the condo.

I’m looking at the inventory right now in 92126 condos, and it definitely seems like there’s more inventory. However, I don’t think the inventory is that great, and what people are asking for is sort of unreasonable…. it’s almost as if people are just throwing a big number out there to see if it will bite.

For example, this 2+1/2 condo… $825k? Really absurd.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7330-Calle-Cristobal-92126/unit-88/home/4559369

This is absurd.

When I was trying to buy condos in 92126 earlier this year, I was consistently getting beaten by people who were taking out loans and paying a lot more by people who were buying their first home to live in. They were willing to stretch and offer like 5-10% above asking and why I backed out because I didn’t feel comfortable with them as a rental. Couldn’t compete against very motivated first time home buyers or people relocating.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Ban me, I don’t care. That way your small of cadre of remaining members can continue their circle jerk in peace. This forum is useless at this point, only a shell of what it was in the 2000s. I try to provide some entertainment and opposing views but it is utterly boring when there are no bearish opinions here except mine, which is amazing since at this very moment in history there are many strong signals that an epic bear market is in the future.[/quote]

No no no… Don’t go ,please. We need you here dz.. We need you to stay. We need you to come here when the stock market is tanking and post about how right you are going to be so the markets have much better odds of reversing that day. ..uber bearish opinions are always welcome!!! In fact, I strongly encourage them!!!

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]You are the one who gets triggered. You get the piggington award for most all time characters typed, by a landslide! But looking back do you think you’ll ever regret the amount of time you wasted on this pointless exercise?[/quote]

Now now. No need to get personal dude. We only have once in a lifetime opportunity to be on this planet , and we don’t want to unnecessarily raise our blood pressure in our +20year from career start old age , because it could trigger a boatload of health issues…

I’m ok wasting my time here. I’m almost retired so I can afford to waste time. It’s either that or playing bingo at the community center at St George, Utah.

You should consider moving there with me. We can meet up with EconProf for a daily full contact bingo tournament and talk about how shitty california is. Then you won’t feel like housing is unaffordable. You could even work remotely and continue to enjoy your CA salary in a st. George , Utah cost of living.

oh wait , you don’t think workers should be allowed to work remotely, and predicted that would end and if true, after you moved there, youd be ask to report to office or get fired….. Oh snap…

[Coronita]

Maybe that’s the new ticket to the next opportunity of a lifetime.

An entire infomercial series like the Robert K. “Rich Dad Poor Dad Series” that we can sell called

“The Opportunity of a Lifetime, Don’t Miss It” speaker series…

You too can learn how to spot the opportunity of a lifetime if you buy my books and attend my Opportunity of a Lifetime seminars….

In Opportunity of a Lifetime 101: I teach you the basics of GOOAL.. That stands for Great opportunity of a lifetime….

In Opportunity of a Lifetime 102: I’ll provide hands on practice simulated life experiences that will allow you to test your opportunity of a lifetime detecting skills… We’ll go through real world AI-based simulated experiences so you can understand the psychology of GOOAL

In Opportunity of a Lifetime 201: I’ll provide a comprehensive diagnostic of your mentality that is preventing you from obtaining GOOAL nirvana!!!

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]yes you guys are doing very well financially, keep patting yourselves on the back. But you do not represent the typical American. Most are in debt up to their eyeballs. The current inflation is destroying people.

Regardless, all I’m saying is this is the mother of all bubbles. It does make sense, if you take into account what the Fed has done (see balance sheet). So stop arguing with me and just jump on the pain train and enjoy the crash. I have no doubt you will make out much better than most.[/quote]

Lol.

We’re not getting butt hurt from a crash or giving ourselves a pat on our backs. We’re just laughing at your posts…. At least I am….

Crashes are good. They create opportunities of a lifetime… Apparently, most of us know what an opportunity of a lifetime is, because there were a few distinct one for the past twenty years.

Opportunities of the lifetime are good and I would highly recommend participating in one. I know opportunity of a lifetime triggers you, and I’m sorry that you might have missed the housing opportunity of a lifetime, and the pandemic stock market opportunity of a lifetime. But I’m sure if you wait another 20, 30 years, there could be another opportunity of a life time when you’re 58-60 years old. And it’s definitely worth putting your entire life on hold of that one-hit-one-shot opportunity of a a lifetime that you’ll clearly be able to spot, and seize on, just like the first couple of opportunity of a lifetime events that has happened in the first 20 years of your career….

Consistency is key. Because if one is able to spot and seize opportunity of a lifetime, there’s a high probability they’ll be able to do it again.

On the other hand, those that consistently miss opportunities of the lifetime, most likely will consistently miss them even when they do occur. Because it’s not the opportunity that’s the problem…It’s the person’s mentality that causes them to make the same mistake over and over again…

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Rich Toscano][quote=deadzone]That’s literally gambling.[/quote]

You are “literally” indistinguishable from a parody account.[/quote]

Whatever you say. Apparently I’m the only one left on this worthless blog who believes were are in an epic bubble. Although all you have to do is check the Fed balance sheet to see the source of the bubble, pretty clear cause and effect.

Back in the last RE bubble, there was a lot more interesting debate here. Now the site is very one sided, clearly because most on here are heavily invested in RE so they all get extremely butt hurt by those mentioning a possible crash. Sorry, don’t like the message? Just blame the messenger. “DZ just has an axe to grind” so we can ignore the oncoming crash. LOL

Sorry, your feelings about me aren’t going to change anything. If the Fed does in fact follow through with the QT, things are going to crash HARD. The market was artificially stimulated with trillions of Pandemic printed money, you think things are going to go well when that is pulled away?[/quote]

Lol.

[Coronita]

[quote=flyer]https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/09/compare-investing-gambling.asp

https://realtytimes.com/listings/item/1033534-investing-in-real-estate-isn-t-gambling

DZ, the above are a couple of articles that compare investing to gambling, as they pertain to various investments, including real estate. There are many more online.

Having gone through many real estate cycles, most of us here made “educated guesses” when we chose to invest in real estate during the past recession. These “educated guesses” were based upon the fact that, among other factors, we were aware that, as most investments, there are cycles, so we knew, barring the extinction of humanity, there would, as cycles go, be a rebound, so we would, at the very least, break even.

That said, although I know you want to continue this dissertation indefinitely, regardless of what we can prove to you to be true, even if you are proven to be 100% correct, as far as this cycle goes, it will have no effect on our situations–as we have already far exceeded our initial investments far beyond the impact of any present or future contractions.

If you are truly concerned about others who did not invest during a down cycle opportunity, and are now investing in real estate at exorbitantly high (inflated?–we don’t know yet) prices, you should make every effort to find a platform to inform them of their folly, but I just don’t see the point as far as most of us here are concerned, and I say all of this in all sincerity.[/quote]

That’s actually a pretty good article that hopefully dz will understand after reading it
specifically

[quote]
Investors must always decide how much money they want to risk. Some traders typically risk 2-5% of their capital base on any particular trade. Longer-term investors constantly hear the virtues of diversification across different asset classes. However, risk and return expectations can vary widely within the same asset class, especially if it’s a large one, as the equities class is. For example, a blue-chip stock that trades on the New York Stock Exchange will have a very different risk-return profile from a micro-cap stock that trades on a small exchange.

This, in essence, is an investment risk management strategy: Spreading your capital across different assets, or different types of assets within the same class, will likely help minimize potential losses.
[/quote]

[Coronita]

[quote=phaster][quote=Coronita][quote=Escoguy][quote=Coronita]
I have to admit, escoguy….
It is so fvcking awesome you Uber drive…. Most of the people who you pick up don’t even know how well off you are.

I swear, you should consider doing a “Cash Cab” like game show.

Can I trade free DIY auto repair/service with free rides to the airport?? :)[/quote]

My wife thinks I’m crazy to Uber in a Model S, but passengers do get kicks out of it.
A dad took a selfie with his son in front of the car Sunday, they were so excited.
Another guy did a video call with his son in Cozumel to show the car.

One can learn a lot from passengers, they share so much about their lives and probably 95% are great. Occasionally, a few can be a touch pretentious.
I’d like to think it helps me refine my people skills and keeps me grounded.
Have to admit, after not being out there during the pandemic, it’s nice to be out driving again and seeing the vibe of San Diego, really so much to do here.

Oddly, I’ve managed to get to know a few neighbors this way, within half an hour had a family of Russian refugees coming from TJ, then a group coming from a wedding in Rancho Santa Fe. Kind of wakes you up to what is going on around us.

As far as money, no I don’t bring that up, if so in indirect terms about appreciating things in life. Some people need a little direction and really listen. It’s odd but one can have an impact in unexpected places.[/quote]

Awesome. What are my chances of Ubering in a Miata?

I can give a lot of directions in life too…

Late apex, trail braking, rev matching…

Oh wait, I can only take one passenger, 6’2″ or under, comfortably….

But wait a minute….

…”Honey, I need a 2+2 seat 911s for my Uber business…”

That might work…Can you select how many passengers you can take?[/quote]

seems a more practical porsche to über w/ is the,… “panamera-4-e-hybrid-sport-turismo,…” because it has four doors and is a hybrid (useful in urban stop and go driving)

http://www.porsche.com/usa/models/panamera/panamera-models/panamera-4-e-hybrid-sport-turismo/%5B/quote%5D

Sorry, perhaps it’s just because I’m old fashion and a purist. A Porsche that comes with 4 doors is just wrong. It’s not a real Porsche, and I wouldn’t be caught dead driving one. The 4 doors sedan and suvs are nice, just not my cup of tea. Might well get an Audi 4 door product from the same parent company. The eTron SUV is pretty nice. A couple of friends have that.

The i4 m50 is pretty sweet too, if you can look past the fugly new front grill. But you won’t be able to get one unless you already preordered or you are willing to pay a $15k markup above msrp. But I already swore I would never buy another BMW product again.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Everything will be OK now that bOuDiN iS oUt. AMiRITe?[/quote]

Good. hopefully, this is the beginning of throwing out a lot of people from the extreme left.

Good luck New York City crime wave.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=flyer]And, not just “rich people,” dz. We also know a lot of people who, although they were not really in an optimum position to do so during The Great Recession, bet there would be a rebound, so they gathered all of the resources they had, and also invested. Of course, things could have gone either way, but, in retrospect, they are very glad they did.[/quote]

That’s literally gambling.[/quote]

DZ, perhaps it hasn’t occurred to you yet that…what you (haven’t) done financially for the past 20+years was gambling too…

…It was gambling with pretty good odds that….
…the end result 20+years later financially would be a pretty shitty outcome….

[Coronita]

[quote=flyer]Perhaps, for whatever reasons, he really doesn’t want to own a home, and that’s fine. If that’s the case, and since he won’t be held responsible for the decisions of others, it seems to me he should just be happy/content with his decision, and let others be happy/content with theirs. I just can’t imagine putting this much effort into proving the decisions of others right or wrong.[/quote]

But is he, happy?

[Coronita]

[quote=JPJones][quote=Coronita][quote=flyer]And, not just “rich people,” dz. We also know a lot of people who, although they were not really in an optimum position to do so during The Great Recession, bet there would be a rebound, so they gathered all of the resources they had, and also invested. Of course, things could have gone either way, but, in retrospect, they are very glad they did.[/quote]

Yes, you see, flyer is basically saying the Great Recession was an opportunity of a lifetime….We aren’t the only one saying it dz….[/quote]

So if the housing market does crash again and dz acts on it by buying a house or two, would that count as his redemption arc?[/quote]

Part of me hopes that happens just so he would get that œ chip off his shoulder so we can move on, lol.
but I hope it doesn’t turn into another analysis until paralysis and ends up being missed opportunity of a lifetime 2.0. lol

[Coronita]

[quote=flyer]And, not just “rich people,” dz. We also know a lot of people who, although they were not really in an optimum position to do so during The Great Recession, bet there would be a rebound, so they gathered all of the resources they had, and also invested. Of course, things could have gone either way, but, in retrospect, they are very glad they did.[/quote]

Yes, you see, flyer is basically saying the Great Recession was an opportunity of a lifetime….We aren’t the only one saying it dz….

[Author]

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