[cooperthedog]

“That is actually an easy one to ansWer. If prices have stopped going down, but still may take years to go up, why rent and give your money away? Why not better to buy now and benefit from deductible mortgage interest and building equity with each payment?”

First off, my basic premise was that home prices have NOT stopped going down, only that the rate of decline may lessen. Second, if one assumes prices have hit bottom, then owning is only beneficial if it is cheaper then renting (taking into consideration all costs and deductions), which is currently not the case. Therefore you are actually giving your money away to the bank. In addition, since renting is significantly cheaper the probability of a bottom is very low and the risk of losing a substantial amount of money purchasing a house are high.

[cooperthedog]

“That is actually an easy one to ansWer. If prices have stopped going down, but still may take years to go up, why rent and give your money away? Why not better to buy now and benefit from deductible mortgage interest and building equity with each payment?”

First off, my basic premise was that home prices have NOT stopped going down, only that the rate of decline may lessen. Second, if one assumes prices have hit bottom, then owning is only beneficial if it is cheaper then renting (taking into consideration all costs and deductions), which is currently not the case. Therefore you are actually giving your money away to the bank. In addition, since renting is significantly cheaper the probability of a bottom is very low and the risk of losing a substantial amount of money purchasing a house are high.

[cooperthedog]

“That is actually an easy one to ansWer. If prices have stopped going down, but still may take years to go up, why rent and give your money away? Why not better to buy now and benefit from deductible mortgage interest and building equity with each payment?”

First off, my basic premise was that home prices have NOT stopped going down, only that the rate of decline may lessen. Second, if one assumes prices have hit bottom, then owning is only beneficial if it is cheaper then renting (taking into consideration all costs and deductions), which is currently not the case. Therefore you are actually giving your money away to the bank. In addition, since renting is significantly cheaper the probability of a bottom is very low and the risk of losing a substantial amount of money purchasing a house are high.

[cooperthedog]

“That is actually an easy one to ansWer. If prices have stopped going down, but still may take years to go up, why rent and give your money away? Why not better to buy now and benefit from deductible mortgage interest and building equity with each payment?”

First off, my basic premise was that home prices have NOT stopped going down, only that the rate of decline may lessen. Second, if one assumes prices have hit bottom, then owning is only beneficial if it is cheaper then renting (taking into consideration all costs and deductions), which is currently not the case. Therefore you are actually giving your money away to the bank. In addition, since renting is significantly cheaper the probability of a bottom is very low and the risk of losing a substantial amount of money purchasing a house are high.

[cooperthedog]

“That is actually an easy one to ansWer. If prices have stopped going down, but still may take years to go up, why rent and give your money away? Why not better to buy now and benefit from deductible mortgage interest and building equity with each payment?”

First off, my basic premise was that home prices have NOT stopped going down, only that the rate of decline may lessen. Second, if one assumes prices have hit bottom, then owning is only beneficial if it is cheaper then renting (taking into consideration all costs and deductions), which is currently not the case. Therefore you are actually giving your money away to the bank. In addition, since renting is significantly cheaper the probability of a bottom is very low and the risk of losing a substantial amount of money purchasing a house are high.

[cooperthedog]

I think we are in the solidly in the “fear” section of the curve for most owners (with speculators and a few owner-occupied’s in the desperation phase). This is evidenced by the gov’t bail out (to preempt any panic in housing/credit markets, and subsequent fallout to the economy).

The probability that the housing market has actually bottomed is very low. With the bailout, I think the rate of decline will lessen, and a more contracted erosion of values will occur. Bubbles either pop and crash or deflate slowly. Financial markets that crash can rebound relatively quickly, if there are no structural problems (1987), or they can decline for years (2000), or crash and then decline (Great Depression), from major structural problems.

I would say that there are major structural problems with housing in the US, and that the housing market does not correct anywhere near as fast as the financial markets, plus RE is more than just an asset class for most, so a “crash” in housing could take several years to unfold. The gov’t intervention may avoid a crash and the sprialing problems from an evaporation of credt, but the slower decline & stagnation could be stretched out over 5-7 years.

From a renters perspective a crash would allow buying to occur sooner (assuming credit is available at good terms, and you don’t lose your job to a recession), with the bailout I think you are seeing a conviction from policymakers that the housing market will definitely head lower, the slope of descent is the real issue. Even if prices hit bottom today, I think you would see years and years of stagnation. Why pay for that?

[cooperthedog]

I think we are in the solidly in the “fear” section of the curve for most owners (with speculators and a few owner-occupied’s in the desperation phase). This is evidenced by the gov’t bail out (to preempt any panic in housing/credit markets, and subsequent fallout to the economy).

The probability that the housing market has actually bottomed is very low. With the bailout, I think the rate of decline will lessen, and a more contracted erosion of values will occur. Bubbles either pop and crash or deflate slowly. Financial markets that crash can rebound relatively quickly, if there are no structural problems (1987), or they can decline for years (2000), or crash and then decline (Great Depression), from major structural problems.

I would say that there are major structural problems with housing in the US, and that the housing market does not correct anywhere near as fast as the financial markets, plus RE is more than just an asset class for most, so a “crash” in housing could take several years to unfold. The gov’t intervention may avoid a crash and the sprialing problems from an evaporation of credt, but the slower decline & stagnation could be stretched out over 5-7 years.

From a renters perspective a crash would allow buying to occur sooner (assuming credit is available at good terms, and you don’t lose your job to a recession), with the bailout I think you are seeing a conviction from policymakers that the housing market will definitely head lower, the slope of descent is the real issue. Even if prices hit bottom today, I think you would see years and years of stagnation. Why pay for that?

[cooperthedog]

I think we are in the solidly in the “fear” section of the curve for most owners (with speculators and a few owner-occupied’s in the desperation phase). This is evidenced by the gov’t bail out (to preempt any panic in housing/credit markets, and subsequent fallout to the economy).

The probability that the housing market has actually bottomed is very low. With the bailout, I think the rate of decline will lessen, and a more contracted erosion of values will occur. Bubbles either pop and crash or deflate slowly. Financial markets that crash can rebound relatively quickly, if there are no structural problems (1987), or they can decline for years (2000), or crash and then decline (Great Depression), from major structural problems.

I would say that there are major structural problems with housing in the US, and that the housing market does not correct anywhere near as fast as the financial markets, plus RE is more than just an asset class for most, so a “crash” in housing could take several years to unfold. The gov’t intervention may avoid a crash and the sprialing problems from an evaporation of credt, but the slower decline & stagnation could be stretched out over 5-7 years.

From a renters perspective a crash would allow buying to occur sooner (assuming credit is available at good terms, and you don’t lose your job to a recession), with the bailout I think you are seeing a conviction from policymakers that the housing market will definitely head lower, the slope of descent is the real issue. Even if prices hit bottom today, I think you would see years and years of stagnation. Why pay for that?

[cooperthedog]

I think we are in the solidly in the “fear” section of the curve for most owners (with speculators and a few owner-occupied’s in the desperation phase). This is evidenced by the gov’t bail out (to preempt any panic in housing/credit markets, and subsequent fallout to the economy).

The probability that the housing market has actually bottomed is very low. With the bailout, I think the rate of decline will lessen, and a more contracted erosion of values will occur. Bubbles either pop and crash or deflate slowly. Financial markets that crash can rebound relatively quickly, if there are no structural problems (1987), or they can decline for years (2000), or crash and then decline (Great Depression), from major structural problems.

I would say that there are major structural problems with housing in the US, and that the housing market does not correct anywhere near as fast as the financial markets, plus RE is more than just an asset class for most, so a “crash” in housing could take several years to unfold. The gov’t intervention may avoid a crash and the sprialing problems from an evaporation of credt, but the slower decline & stagnation could be stretched out over 5-7 years.

From a renters perspective a crash would allow buying to occur sooner (assuming credit is available at good terms, and you don’t lose your job to a recession), with the bailout I think you are seeing a conviction from policymakers that the housing market will definitely head lower, the slope of descent is the real issue. Even if prices hit bottom today, I think you would see years and years of stagnation. Why pay for that?

[cooperthedog]

I think we are in the solidly in the “fear” section of the curve for most owners (with speculators and a few owner-occupied’s in the desperation phase). This is evidenced by the gov’t bail out (to preempt any panic in housing/credit markets, and subsequent fallout to the economy).

The probability that the housing market has actually bottomed is very low. With the bailout, I think the rate of decline will lessen, and a more contracted erosion of values will occur. Bubbles either pop and crash or deflate slowly. Financial markets that crash can rebound relatively quickly, if there are no structural problems (1987), or they can decline for years (2000), or crash and then decline (Great Depression), from major structural problems.

I would say that there are major structural problems with housing in the US, and that the housing market does not correct anywhere near as fast as the financial markets, plus RE is more than just an asset class for most, so a “crash” in housing could take several years to unfold. The gov’t intervention may avoid a crash and the sprialing problems from an evaporation of credt, but the slower decline & stagnation could be stretched out over 5-7 years.

From a renters perspective a crash would allow buying to occur sooner (assuming credit is available at good terms, and you don’t lose your job to a recession), with the bailout I think you are seeing a conviction from policymakers that the housing market will definitely head lower, the slope of descent is the real issue. Even if prices hit bottom today, I think you would see years and years of stagnation. Why pay for that?

[cooperthedog]

I used to visit regularly in summer of 2006 & post occasionaly. At that time the average person on the street didn’t think the housing market would ever slow down, much less collapse, so it was very interesting to review the analysis and debates. Since the housing crisis became front page news (and I don’t reside in SD), my need for an alternative/rational viewpoint has faded, though I’ve lurked here from time to time. Everytime I read a rosy NAR report trying to spin horrid numbers, I think of Piggington’s!

One thing that I miss is the market (financial) discussions. There were many good posts on investment ideas, economics, market direction, etc. The board seemed to have several intelligent posters (and a few zealots), which made for informative and entertaining reading back then. Maybe I should start visiting again…

[cooperthedog]

I used to visit regularly in summer of 2006 & post occasionaly. At that time the average person on the street didn’t think the housing market would ever slow down, much less collapse, so it was very interesting to review the analysis and debates. Since the housing crisis became front page news (and I don’t reside in SD), my need for an alternative/rational viewpoint has faded, though I’ve lurked here from time to time. Everytime I read a rosy NAR report trying to spin horrid numbers, I think of Piggington’s!

One thing that I miss is the market (financial) discussions. There were many good posts on investment ideas, economics, market direction, etc. The board seemed to have several intelligent posters (and a few zealots), which made for informative and entertaining reading back then. Maybe I should start visiting again…

[cooperthedog]

I used to visit regularly in summer of 2006 & post occasionaly. At that time the average person on the street didn’t think the housing market would ever slow down, much less collapse, so it was very interesting to review the analysis and debates. Since the housing crisis became front page news (and I don’t reside in SD), my need for an alternative/rational viewpoint has faded, though I’ve lurked here from time to time. Everytime I read a rosy NAR report trying to spin horrid numbers, I think of Piggington’s!

One thing that I miss is the market (financial) discussions. There were many good posts on investment ideas, economics, market direction, etc. The board seemed to have several intelligent posters (and a few zealots), which made for informative and entertaining reading back then. Maybe I should start visiting again…

[cooperthedog]

I used to visit regularly in summer of 2006 & post occasionaly. At that time the average person on the street didn’t think the housing market would ever slow down, much less collapse, so it was very interesting to review the analysis and debates. Since the housing crisis became front page news (and I don’t reside in SD), my need for an alternative/rational viewpoint has faded, though I’ve lurked here from time to time. Everytime I read a rosy NAR report trying to spin horrid numbers, I think of Piggington’s!

One thing that I miss is the market (financial) discussions. There were many good posts on investment ideas, economics, market direction, etc. The board seemed to have several intelligent posters (and a few zealots), which made for informative and entertaining reading back then. Maybe I should start visiting again…

[cooperthedog]

I used to visit regularly in summer of 2006 & post occasionaly. At that time the average person on the street didn’t think the housing market would ever slow down, much less collapse, so it was very interesting to review the analysis and debates. Since the housing crisis became front page news (and I don’t reside in SD), my need for an alternative/rational viewpoint has faded, though I’ve lurked here from time to time. Everytime I read a rosy NAR report trying to spin horrid numbers, I think of Piggington’s!

One thing that I miss is the market (financial) discussions. There were many good posts on investment ideas, economics, market direction, etc. The board seemed to have several intelligent posters (and a few zealots), which made for informative and entertaining reading back then. Maybe I should start visiting again…

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