[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I think you are too late to time the market, you had to sell itleast a year ago. Now you will just chase prices downward, and when you add that to the 6% it costs to sell including closing costs, I do not think you will be much ahead unless the biggest depression of all time hits. It could, but I am betting against it. Especially if you like your place and where you live.

Do not read those scare tactic articles from newspapers, most of those people have never made a dime, so why would you listen to their advice? I have made a nice living for awhile fading those people, as they are wrong a high percentage of the time.

Prices are coming down, there is no denying that, but for your scenario at this point you need a crash for it to pay off, larger than the early 90’s one. I think we are already down 10 to 15% at this point, you will probably take a 5% hit now from where you think you can sell, to where you would actually sell. Add that to the 6% cost of doing so, and now you are more or less the equivalent of anywhere from 21 to 26% off the top. We may go further, but remember, prices are rigged upwards not downwards, so you are really betting against a very strong long term upward trend, and hoping for a greater than 25% pullback against it. Odds do not favor that happening.

Many in here think it is different this time, and they may be right, but I am not one of them.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I think you are too late to time the market, you had to sell itleast a year ago. Now you will just chase prices downward, and when you add that to the 6% it costs to sell including closing costs, I do not think you will be much ahead unless the biggest depression of all time hits. It could, but I am betting against it. Especially if you like your place and where you live.

Do not read those scare tactic articles from newspapers, most of those people have never made a dime, so why would you listen to their advice? I have made a nice living for awhile fading those people, as they are wrong a high percentage of the time.

Prices are coming down, there is no denying that, but for your scenario at this point you need a crash for it to pay off, larger than the early 90’s one. I think we are already down 10 to 15% at this point, you will probably take a 5% hit now from where you think you can sell, to where you would actually sell. Add that to the 6% cost of doing so, and now you are more or less the equivalent of anywhere from 21 to 26% off the top. We may go further, but remember, prices are rigged upwards not downwards, so you are really betting against a very strong long term upward trend, and hoping for a greater than 25% pullback against it. Odds do not favor that happening.

Many in here think it is different this time, and they may be right, but I am not one of them.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I will state what I re-state over and over, be very careful what you wish for. This reckoning that many hope for may happen, but if it does, most people including many in here, will be out of work, and in very bad shape financially. I think it is naive to think that you can have a regular job, have financial armageddon take place, and be completely unaffected. Everything is connected nowadays.

I do not disagree with most of the points being discussed here, but we cannot have this washout you want. We are where we are, and the powers that be need to find an easier way out than tough love. It is human nature unfortunately, to be a sheister, many people are always looking to take advantage of others. Most people with these bad loans were duped, some were not. Unfortunately, we may need to let a few people who deserve to eat it off the hook, to save the greater majority.

A fed easing is almost mandatory at this point, so get ready. What the Fed did today spoke very highly about how they are really looking at things right now. They saved the market today, this is the PPT in prime time for everyone to see. They will do more in the coming weeks.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I will state what I re-state over and over, be very careful what you wish for. This reckoning that many hope for may happen, but if it does, most people including many in here, will be out of work, and in very bad shape financially. I think it is naive to think that you can have a regular job, have financial armageddon take place, and be completely unaffected. Everything is connected nowadays.

I do not disagree with most of the points being discussed here, but we cannot have this washout you want. We are where we are, and the powers that be need to find an easier way out than tough love. It is human nature unfortunately, to be a sheister, many people are always looking to take advantage of others. Most people with these bad loans were duped, some were not. Unfortunately, we may need to let a few people who deserve to eat it off the hook, to save the greater majority.

A fed easing is almost mandatory at this point, so get ready. What the Fed did today spoke very highly about how they are really looking at things right now. They saved the market today, this is the PPT in prime time for everyone to see. They will do more in the coming weeks.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I will state what I re-state over and over, be very careful what you wish for. This reckoning that many hope for may happen, but if it does, most people including many in here, will be out of work, and in very bad shape financially. I think it is naive to think that you can have a regular job, have financial armageddon take place, and be completely unaffected. Everything is connected nowadays.

I do not disagree with most of the points being discussed here, but we cannot have this washout you want. We are where we are, and the powers that be need to find an easier way out than tough love. It is human nature unfortunately, to be a sheister, many people are always looking to take advantage of others. Most people with these bad loans were duped, some were not. Unfortunately, we may need to let a few people who deserve to eat it off the hook, to save the greater majority.

A fed easing is almost mandatory at this point, so get ready. What the Fed did today spoke very highly about how they are really looking at things right now. They saved the market today, this is the PPT in prime time for everyone to see. They will do more in the coming weeks.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

My blog is http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com. I have had so much trouble with my satellite internet, that I have not been able to put something up every day. It often can take 2 hours to post something as my internet cuts in and out. I thought no matter what I needed to do it last night.

I just posted my most current view of things there last night. Ironically, one of the stocks I bought, rose yesterday, but the rest got hit just like everyone else. The commercials are still heavily long, which is an important component of my models. This is volatile trading to be sure, but please do not panic.

The basic fundamentals of the stock market are still intact, this is event based volatility. I wrote in my newsletter last month that I expected flat to down trading for the first two weeks of this month, followed by a bounce. Keep in mind going in to today, the market is still up on the week.

Your time horizon should be your main consideration as to what to do, the shorter it is, the more quickly you should act, the longer it is, the more slowly you should act. We probably have a 500 pt up day lurking out there somewhere soon. Today should be fun to watch based on the pre-mkt futures, and the Fed action with the Repos etc that went on this am.

I have been watching Kramer for kicks this week, and he just can’t seem to take a side, what a flip flopper he is. He is very bright, but he has lost some of my respect this last week. I might be dead wrong, but itleast I take a side and stay with it.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

My blog is http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com. I have had so much trouble with my satellite internet, that I have not been able to put something up every day. It often can take 2 hours to post something as my internet cuts in and out. I thought no matter what I needed to do it last night.

I just posted my most current view of things there last night. Ironically, one of the stocks I bought, rose yesterday, but the rest got hit just like everyone else. The commercials are still heavily long, which is an important component of my models. This is volatile trading to be sure, but please do not panic.

The basic fundamentals of the stock market are still intact, this is event based volatility. I wrote in my newsletter last month that I expected flat to down trading for the first two weeks of this month, followed by a bounce. Keep in mind going in to today, the market is still up on the week.

Your time horizon should be your main consideration as to what to do, the shorter it is, the more quickly you should act, the longer it is, the more slowly you should act. We probably have a 500 pt up day lurking out there somewhere soon. Today should be fun to watch based on the pre-mkt futures, and the Fed action with the Repos etc that went on this am.

I have been watching Kramer for kicks this week, and he just can’t seem to take a side, what a flip flopper he is. He is very bright, but he has lost some of my respect this last week. I might be dead wrong, but itleast I take a side and stay with it.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

My blog is http://www.iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com. I have had so much trouble with my satellite internet, that I have not been able to put something up every day. It often can take 2 hours to post something as my internet cuts in and out. I thought no matter what I needed to do it last night.

I just posted my most current view of things there last night. Ironically, one of the stocks I bought, rose yesterday, but the rest got hit just like everyone else. The commercials are still heavily long, which is an important component of my models. This is volatile trading to be sure, but please do not panic.

The basic fundamentals of the stock market are still intact, this is event based volatility. I wrote in my newsletter last month that I expected flat to down trading for the first two weeks of this month, followed by a bounce. Keep in mind going in to today, the market is still up on the week.

Your time horizon should be your main consideration as to what to do, the shorter it is, the more quickly you should act, the longer it is, the more slowly you should act. We probably have a 500 pt up day lurking out there somewhere soon. Today should be fun to watch based on the pre-mkt futures, and the Fed action with the Repos etc that went on this am.

I have been watching Kramer for kicks this week, and he just can’t seem to take a side, what a flip flopper he is. He is very bright, but he has lost some of my respect this last week. I might be dead wrong, but itleast I take a side and stay with it.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

It is not exactly speculation, there is a hard number that can be derived from the bond yield on a daily basis that tells us the % likelihood of a raise up or decline in rates by the Fed. I do not know the formula off the top of my head, it is not integral to how I trade so I do not care.

If you email CNBC you can probably get how the calculation is figured. Prior to today, I think it was over a 90% probability for a cut before years end. Due to the big gap down close today, that % would be lower now. For those who foresee a huge slowdown, it is an inconsistent position to be against a rate cut. If you get your big recession, you will get cuts to combat it. The Fed is being wise IMO to hold off using their ammo until it is absolutely needed. a 3.5% GDP number like the last one, is nowhere near low enough to get a rate cut right now. The longer they can hold off the more room they buy themselves to stimulate things if they get really weak.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

It is not exactly speculation, there is a hard number that can be derived from the bond yield on a daily basis that tells us the % likelihood of a raise up or decline in rates by the Fed. I do not know the formula off the top of my head, it is not integral to how I trade so I do not care.

If you email CNBC you can probably get how the calculation is figured. Prior to today, I think it was over a 90% probability for a cut before years end. Due to the big gap down close today, that % would be lower now. For those who foresee a huge slowdown, it is an inconsistent position to be against a rate cut. If you get your big recession, you will get cuts to combat it. The Fed is being wise IMO to hold off using their ammo until it is absolutely needed. a 3.5% GDP number like the last one, is nowhere near low enough to get a rate cut right now. The longer they can hold off the more room they buy themselves to stimulate things if they get really weak.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

It is not exactly speculation, there is a hard number that can be derived from the bond yield on a daily basis that tells us the % likelihood of a raise up or decline in rates by the Fed. I do not know the formula off the top of my head, it is not integral to how I trade so I do not care.

If you email CNBC you can probably get how the calculation is figured. Prior to today, I think it was over a 90% probability for a cut before years end. Due to the big gap down close today, that % would be lower now. For those who foresee a huge slowdown, it is an inconsistent position to be against a rate cut. If you get your big recession, you will get cuts to combat it. The Fed is being wise IMO to hold off using their ammo until it is absolutely needed. a 3.5% GDP number like the last one, is nowhere near low enough to get a rate cut right now. The longer they can hold off the more room they buy themselves to stimulate things if they get really weak.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Today does not mean anything, the market was incredibly oversold, right at the 3 standard deviations on a 60 day regression channel. Bounces can happen at any time when you get to that type of an extreme. It is my opinion that the PPT (Plunge Protection Team was at work here) When you see buy programs come out of the blue in the futures in the last hour on a day like this (about 200 points of today came in the last hour), that is the PPT working. Once you get used to watching market action closely, it is easy to see when they show up. I actually used to have a few day trading strategies designed around trying to front run their action.

For those not familiar with this terminology, this refers to the group of insiders that are “urged” by certain people to buy to stop things from freefalling. I learned about this from a friend who used to run a huge mutual fund in NY a few years back. It also can be the Fed working its magic through others without actually doing anything themselves. If they could pull off another day like today, the heat would be taken off the Fed, so it would not be a surprise to see it happen.

I agree with most others here, that it is unlikely the Fed will do anything. Kramer is all over the place hedging his opinions, and I doubt Bernanke cares what he thinks.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Today does not mean anything, the market was incredibly oversold, right at the 3 standard deviations on a 60 day regression channel. Bounces can happen at any time when you get to that type of an extreme. It is my opinion that the PPT (Plunge Protection Team was at work here) When you see buy programs come out of the blue in the futures in the last hour on a day like this (about 200 points of today came in the last hour), that is the PPT working. Once you get used to watching market action closely, it is easy to see when they show up. I actually used to have a few day trading strategies designed around trying to front run their action.

For those not familiar with this terminology, this refers to the group of insiders that are “urged” by certain people to buy to stop things from freefalling. I learned about this from a friend who used to run a huge mutual fund in NY a few years back. It also can be the Fed working its magic through others without actually doing anything themselves. If they could pull off another day like today, the heat would be taken off the Fed, so it would not be a surprise to see it happen.

I agree with most others here, that it is unlikely the Fed will do anything. Kramer is all over the place hedging his opinions, and I doubt Bernanke cares what he thinks.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Today does not mean anything, the market was incredibly oversold, right at the 3 standard deviations on a 60 day regression channel. Bounces can happen at any time when you get to that type of an extreme. It is my opinion that the PPT (Plunge Protection Team was at work here) When you see buy programs come out of the blue in the futures in the last hour on a day like this (about 200 points of today came in the last hour), that is the PPT working. Once you get used to watching market action closely, it is easy to see when they show up. I actually used to have a few day trading strategies designed around trying to front run their action.

For those not familiar with this terminology, this refers to the group of insiders that are “urged” by certain people to buy to stop things from freefalling. I learned about this from a friend who used to run a huge mutual fund in NY a few years back. It also can be the Fed working its magic through others without actually doing anything themselves. If they could pull off another day like today, the heat would be taken off the Fed, so it would not be a surprise to see it happen.

I agree with most others here, that it is unlikely the Fed will do anything. Kramer is all over the place hedging his opinions, and I doubt Bernanke cares what he thinks.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Good topic, and bound to be met with a wave of anger. I have no idea where prices will go next, but I can say that I look at both sides of the argument constantly. One sided thinking has never made me any money. A lack of willingness to acknowledge even a chance that one’s opinion could be wrong is rarely a trait of successful people that I have met. The fact that you are itleast willing to consider that a crash may not happen bodes well for your investment future.

The news is horredous everywhere, but what matters is what price actually does as a reaction to it, not what it should do. We have had awful volume for a long time now, and prices have not gone down much. If somehow prices hold up over the next year in the face of this avalanche of negative news, that would be a very bullish sign. I do not know if they will or not, but I am willing to consider that it is a possibility.

Put your helmet on, you may get hammered suggesting this.

[Author]

Posts