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November 6, 2008 at 8:00 AM in reply to: Stock market set to rocket on prospects of Obama Presidency (up 250 points already) #300087November 6, 2008 at 8:00 AM in reply to: Stock market set to rocket on prospects of Obama Presidency (up 250 points already) #300445
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantI would love to blame this on him simply because he is going to cause this country incredible pain if he implements what he pledged to do. I think he is smart and for that reason he will renig on some of his promises. However from a trading perspective, this is just a bull trap above the pivot high from 10/21, just a normal reaction in a downtrend. We got a rally back off lows that trapped a few bulls who waited too long to get in, just cleared the last pivot which triggered some buy stops the day of the election, now they are trapped and have to puke out. Alot of people watch these 1-2-3 patterns and buy when the pivots #2 point in this case, get taken out. Fading that breakout pattern is often wise because you have alot of people trapped that have to get out so you can often get a quick large profit like this. Good risk to reward ratio.
This has nothing to do with Obama winning the election.
I heard a great quote on the radio from someone who said they voted for him because he was going to pay her mortgage and buy her gasoline! Funny stuff, but in reality not funny.
November 6, 2008 at 8:00 AM in reply to: Stock market set to rocket on prospects of Obama Presidency (up 250 points already) #300456Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantI would love to blame this on him simply because he is going to cause this country incredible pain if he implements what he pledged to do. I think he is smart and for that reason he will renig on some of his promises. However from a trading perspective, this is just a bull trap above the pivot high from 10/21, just a normal reaction in a downtrend. We got a rally back off lows that trapped a few bulls who waited too long to get in, just cleared the last pivot which triggered some buy stops the day of the election, now they are trapped and have to puke out. Alot of people watch these 1-2-3 patterns and buy when the pivots #2 point in this case, get taken out. Fading that breakout pattern is often wise because you have alot of people trapped that have to get out so you can often get a quick large profit like this. Good risk to reward ratio.
This has nothing to do with Obama winning the election.
I heard a great quote on the radio from someone who said they voted for him because he was going to pay her mortgage and buy her gasoline! Funny stuff, but in reality not funny.
November 6, 2008 at 8:00 AM in reply to: Stock market set to rocket on prospects of Obama Presidency (up 250 points already) #300468Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantI would love to blame this on him simply because he is going to cause this country incredible pain if he implements what he pledged to do. I think he is smart and for that reason he will renig on some of his promises. However from a trading perspective, this is just a bull trap above the pivot high from 10/21, just a normal reaction in a downtrend. We got a rally back off lows that trapped a few bulls who waited too long to get in, just cleared the last pivot which triggered some buy stops the day of the election, now they are trapped and have to puke out. Alot of people watch these 1-2-3 patterns and buy when the pivots #2 point in this case, get taken out. Fading that breakout pattern is often wise because you have alot of people trapped that have to get out so you can often get a quick large profit like this. Good risk to reward ratio.
This has nothing to do with Obama winning the election.
I heard a great quote on the radio from someone who said they voted for him because he was going to pay her mortgage and buy her gasoline! Funny stuff, but in reality not funny.
November 6, 2008 at 8:00 AM in reply to: Stock market set to rocket on prospects of Obama Presidency (up 250 points already) #300519Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantI would love to blame this on him simply because he is going to cause this country incredible pain if he implements what he pledged to do. I think he is smart and for that reason he will renig on some of his promises. However from a trading perspective, this is just a bull trap above the pivot high from 10/21, just a normal reaction in a downtrend. We got a rally back off lows that trapped a few bulls who waited too long to get in, just cleared the last pivot which triggered some buy stops the day of the election, now they are trapped and have to puke out. Alot of people watch these 1-2-3 patterns and buy when the pivots #2 point in this case, get taken out. Fading that breakout pattern is often wise because you have alot of people trapped that have to get out so you can often get a quick large profit like this. Good risk to reward ratio.
This has nothing to do with Obama winning the election.
I heard a great quote on the radio from someone who said they voted for him because he was going to pay her mortgage and buy her gasoline! Funny stuff, but in reality not funny.
November 5, 2008 at 7:23 AM in reply to: Easy money on next leg down, second Fool’s Rally progressing as expected #299326Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantI have not participated in this forum for some time until the last couple of days and as I have read the inner monologue of stocktrader I just felt compelled to comment. There are quite a few inconsistencies in this inner monologue about what was predicted, and what was later claimed to have been predicted. So be it, everyone has an ego.
There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace. I personally know people that have made millions on the long side during this recent move upward, yet they are fools as a blog participant who is not even a full time trader calls them? It is hardly foolish to trade a counter-trend rally off such an overextended downward condition, it is what many pros do. They are not fools. Larry Williams is one I know to use a specific name, and nobody alive could justifiably call him a fool. It really depends on what your parameters for the long side trades are. Who exactly is the fool? Predicting a 1200 level retracement is simply looking at the July low, which would serve as resistance if a rally were to reach that level, the concept of overhead supply, etc.. Basic textbook chart pattern theory there.
I certainly agree that shorting this upmove at some point will be a good trade, but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive. It seems from what I have read most people are onto this.
My last thought is that from all the research I have done over the years, I have yet to find a conclusive relationship even on a short term basis between Gold and the stock market. There are many out there who assert that you should be long GOLD if stocks drop. If you study history, there have been many declines in Gold during stock declines, so do not make that play for that reason alone.
It does seem like there are some new participants in here with alot of knowledge in trading so it is interesting to read the opinions now.
November 5, 2008 at 7:23 AM in reply to: Easy money on next leg down, second Fool’s Rally progressing as expected #299680Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantI have not participated in this forum for some time until the last couple of days and as I have read the inner monologue of stocktrader I just felt compelled to comment. There are quite a few inconsistencies in this inner monologue about what was predicted, and what was later claimed to have been predicted. So be it, everyone has an ego.
There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace. I personally know people that have made millions on the long side during this recent move upward, yet they are fools as a blog participant who is not even a full time trader calls them? It is hardly foolish to trade a counter-trend rally off such an overextended downward condition, it is what many pros do. They are not fools. Larry Williams is one I know to use a specific name, and nobody alive could justifiably call him a fool. It really depends on what your parameters for the long side trades are. Who exactly is the fool? Predicting a 1200 level retracement is simply looking at the July low, which would serve as resistance if a rally were to reach that level, the concept of overhead supply, etc.. Basic textbook chart pattern theory there.
I certainly agree that shorting this upmove at some point will be a good trade, but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive. It seems from what I have read most people are onto this.
My last thought is that from all the research I have done over the years, I have yet to find a conclusive relationship even on a short term basis between Gold and the stock market. There are many out there who assert that you should be long GOLD if stocks drop. If you study history, there have been many declines in Gold during stock declines, so do not make that play for that reason alone.
It does seem like there are some new participants in here with alot of knowledge in trading so it is interesting to read the opinions now.
November 5, 2008 at 7:23 AM in reply to: Easy money on next leg down, second Fool’s Rally progressing as expected #299690Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantI have not participated in this forum for some time until the last couple of days and as I have read the inner monologue of stocktrader I just felt compelled to comment. There are quite a few inconsistencies in this inner monologue about what was predicted, and what was later claimed to have been predicted. So be it, everyone has an ego.
There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace. I personally know people that have made millions on the long side during this recent move upward, yet they are fools as a blog participant who is not even a full time trader calls them? It is hardly foolish to trade a counter-trend rally off such an overextended downward condition, it is what many pros do. They are not fools. Larry Williams is one I know to use a specific name, and nobody alive could justifiably call him a fool. It really depends on what your parameters for the long side trades are. Who exactly is the fool? Predicting a 1200 level retracement is simply looking at the July low, which would serve as resistance if a rally were to reach that level, the concept of overhead supply, etc.. Basic textbook chart pattern theory there.
I certainly agree that shorting this upmove at some point will be a good trade, but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive. It seems from what I have read most people are onto this.
My last thought is that from all the research I have done over the years, I have yet to find a conclusive relationship even on a short term basis between Gold and the stock market. There are many out there who assert that you should be long GOLD if stocks drop. If you study history, there have been many declines in Gold during stock declines, so do not make that play for that reason alone.
It does seem like there are some new participants in here with alot of knowledge in trading so it is interesting to read the opinions now.
November 5, 2008 at 7:23 AM in reply to: Easy money on next leg down, second Fool’s Rally progressing as expected #299704Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantI have not participated in this forum for some time until the last couple of days and as I have read the inner monologue of stocktrader I just felt compelled to comment. There are quite a few inconsistencies in this inner monologue about what was predicted, and what was later claimed to have been predicted. So be it, everyone has an ego.
There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace. I personally know people that have made millions on the long side during this recent move upward, yet they are fools as a blog participant who is not even a full time trader calls them? It is hardly foolish to trade a counter-trend rally off such an overextended downward condition, it is what many pros do. They are not fools. Larry Williams is one I know to use a specific name, and nobody alive could justifiably call him a fool. It really depends on what your parameters for the long side trades are. Who exactly is the fool? Predicting a 1200 level retracement is simply looking at the July low, which would serve as resistance if a rally were to reach that level, the concept of overhead supply, etc.. Basic textbook chart pattern theory there.
I certainly agree that shorting this upmove at some point will be a good trade, but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive. It seems from what I have read most people are onto this.
My last thought is that from all the research I have done over the years, I have yet to find a conclusive relationship even on a short term basis between Gold and the stock market. There are many out there who assert that you should be long GOLD if stocks drop. If you study history, there have been many declines in Gold during stock declines, so do not make that play for that reason alone.
It does seem like there are some new participants in here with alot of knowledge in trading so it is interesting to read the opinions now.
November 5, 2008 at 7:23 AM in reply to: Easy money on next leg down, second Fool’s Rally progressing as expected #299753Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantI have not participated in this forum for some time until the last couple of days and as I have read the inner monologue of stocktrader I just felt compelled to comment. There are quite a few inconsistencies in this inner monologue about what was predicted, and what was later claimed to have been predicted. So be it, everyone has an ego.
There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace. I personally know people that have made millions on the long side during this recent move upward, yet they are fools as a blog participant who is not even a full time trader calls them? It is hardly foolish to trade a counter-trend rally off such an overextended downward condition, it is what many pros do. They are not fools. Larry Williams is one I know to use a specific name, and nobody alive could justifiably call him a fool. It really depends on what your parameters for the long side trades are. Who exactly is the fool? Predicting a 1200 level retracement is simply looking at the July low, which would serve as resistance if a rally were to reach that level, the concept of overhead supply, etc.. Basic textbook chart pattern theory there.
I certainly agree that shorting this upmove at some point will be a good trade, but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive. It seems from what I have read most people are onto this.
My last thought is that from all the research I have done over the years, I have yet to find a conclusive relationship even on a short term basis between Gold and the stock market. There are many out there who assert that you should be long GOLD if stocks drop. If you study history, there have been many declines in Gold during stock declines, so do not make that play for that reason alone.
It does seem like there are some new participants in here with alot of knowledge in trading so it is interesting to read the opinions now.
November 5, 2008 at 6:47 AM in reply to: Stock market set to rocket on prospects of Obama Presidency (up 250 points already) #299289Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantThe most the futures were ever up overnight was 5.25 points, where anyone got those other numbers is beyond me. 1008.50 was the high, close was 1003.25 in the ESZ08 according to my data. That swing yesterday was no more related to who won than what happens today. Large institutions who are the driving force behind market moves do not move in and out of the markets that way.
There are strong seasonal biases for the first 1 to 2 trading days almost every month due to managers getting fund inflows from retirement accounts that they have to put the money to work on the long side of the market with. This is especially true now that they have essentially taken the short side of individual stocks off the table. Having a 3 days plus the day of entry limit makes trying to short individual stocks a tough prospect other than as a day trade.
November 5, 2008 at 6:47 AM in reply to: Stock market set to rocket on prospects of Obama Presidency (up 250 points already) #299645Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantThe most the futures were ever up overnight was 5.25 points, where anyone got those other numbers is beyond me. 1008.50 was the high, close was 1003.25 in the ESZ08 according to my data. That swing yesterday was no more related to who won than what happens today. Large institutions who are the driving force behind market moves do not move in and out of the markets that way.
There are strong seasonal biases for the first 1 to 2 trading days almost every month due to managers getting fund inflows from retirement accounts that they have to put the money to work on the long side of the market with. This is especially true now that they have essentially taken the short side of individual stocks off the table. Having a 3 days plus the day of entry limit makes trying to short individual stocks a tough prospect other than as a day trade.
November 5, 2008 at 6:47 AM in reply to: Stock market set to rocket on prospects of Obama Presidency (up 250 points already) #299655Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantThe most the futures were ever up overnight was 5.25 points, where anyone got those other numbers is beyond me. 1008.50 was the high, close was 1003.25 in the ESZ08 according to my data. That swing yesterday was no more related to who won than what happens today. Large institutions who are the driving force behind market moves do not move in and out of the markets that way.
There are strong seasonal biases for the first 1 to 2 trading days almost every month due to managers getting fund inflows from retirement accounts that they have to put the money to work on the long side of the market with. This is especially true now that they have essentially taken the short side of individual stocks off the table. Having a 3 days plus the day of entry limit makes trying to short individual stocks a tough prospect other than as a day trade.
November 5, 2008 at 6:47 AM in reply to: Stock market set to rocket on prospects of Obama Presidency (up 250 points already) #299669Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantThe most the futures were ever up overnight was 5.25 points, where anyone got those other numbers is beyond me. 1008.50 was the high, close was 1003.25 in the ESZ08 according to my data. That swing yesterday was no more related to who won than what happens today. Large institutions who are the driving force behind market moves do not move in and out of the markets that way.
There are strong seasonal biases for the first 1 to 2 trading days almost every month due to managers getting fund inflows from retirement accounts that they have to put the money to work on the long side of the market with. This is especially true now that they have essentially taken the short side of individual stocks off the table. Having a 3 days plus the day of entry limit makes trying to short individual stocks a tough prospect other than as a day trade.
November 5, 2008 at 6:47 AM in reply to: Stock market set to rocket on prospects of Obama Presidency (up 250 points already) #299718Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantThe most the futures were ever up overnight was 5.25 points, where anyone got those other numbers is beyond me. 1008.50 was the high, close was 1003.25 in the ESZ08 according to my data. That swing yesterday was no more related to who won than what happens today. Large institutions who are the driving force behind market moves do not move in and out of the markets that way.
There are strong seasonal biases for the first 1 to 2 trading days almost every month due to managers getting fund inflows from retirement accounts that they have to put the money to work on the long side of the market with. This is especially true now that they have essentially taken the short side of individual stocks off the table. Having a 3 days plus the day of entry limit makes trying to short individual stocks a tough prospect other than as a day trade.
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