[CAwireman]

Matt,

Some good thoughts posted already. A few more:

1) Companies will always need technical support. Generally two areas: Developers and infrastructure technologists.

2) Developers ordinarily work very long hours especially immediately before and immediately following a major- revision software update.

3) Infrastructure support workers also spend lots of time upgrading and replacing production systems during off and weekend hours. Also, there are PC/Software installation positions that may more ordinarily work 8 – 5 shifts, but they may pay much less than the developer and infrastructure superstars.

4) If you can find stable, fair companies (like I have for the last 10 years) its a good way to go if you are good at it.

5) You can be outsourced quite quickly however. And, layoffs and reorgs affecting IT take place once or twice a year at many/most medium to large companies.

6) IT glut – there are so many people taking IT training courses that new IT workers are hard pressed to get their first job. But, with some experience it becomes much easier. There are some cities, like Washington/DC area where IT jobs are plentiful. In SD, its hit or miss. Younger folks will take any salary to get a chance to live in Socal, at least for a while. So, competition (especially in the smaller SD area in comparison to LA) is tougher. A new IT professional may have a challenge breaking into the business.

7) Many IT professionals who surfed through the dot com era run up in salaries but who weren’t downsized/laid off, have impressive salaries. Also, sought after skills draw Salaries from $50K (widely available) to $100K plus (less so, but definitely out there.

8) I read somewhere that ranks of IT staff haven’t necessarily grown tremendously in recent years, but that the ranks of IT Managers have. (Maybe that accounts for what the other poster mentioned in terms of bad IT mangers)IT Managers earn towards the top of the scale. Downside for a newcomer, you can’t get an IT Manger’s position without some significant proven experience. But, if you do, and you are a decent manager, I can tell you that it can be a rewarding vocation.

9) Would I recommend an IT postion for you? If you have nothing better to pursue, why not. The skills you learn in IT have a decent transfer rate to other discliplines. So, if it doesnt’ suit your fancy, you come away with some collateral skills useful in other areas. Overall, there’s a strong demand for sought after skills (experienced programmers, administrators, network engineers, security specialists, DBA’s) but one must pay one’s dues before getting into those roles.

Good luck Matt!

[CAwireman]

Quotes from the UT article:

"Archbold said the incentives, usually taken in the form of interest-rate buy-downs, may not last much longer. “It's not going to get any better than this,” he said." 

"As for the resale market, David Cabot, president of the San Diego Association of Realtors and a top executive with Prudential California Realty, said agents in his company and around the county were more optimistic about the coming year.

“I believe the bottom has been hit and should level out and should be going up a little bit,” Cabot said. “I don't know if that is accurate; we'll have to wait until June to see.”

It wasn't just real estate agents who were seeing an end to the downturn. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke before Congress yesterday about the “drag from housing” diminishing, while his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, told a Canadian audience that the “worst is behind us.”

So okay, let's get out there now and start buying property!

[CAwireman]

Link to that UT article…. 

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070215-9999-1b15housing.html

 

[CAwireman]

SD R,

Thanks for the temperature check. Too bad people are reading things into it that aren’t there.

Ocrenter – your comments are well appreciated. From $1.1MM to $700K – $800K is a huge change, and could easily rally sales.

Its good to hear the sentiments of those currently in the market for a home.

But, I’ll continue to wait on the sidelines for some number of years. Thanks all.

[CAwireman]

JG,

For somone who has money in the company 401K plan, quite often a Fidelity 401K, what can you do to avoid investment in Stocks, Bonds?

Would a fund affiliated with Gold be the only option?

I’d be interested in your thoughts on this.

As always, nice post.

[CAwireman]

FormerSanDiegan,

Thanks for helping to validate my confusion over the statements which were seemingly at odds with one another.

I intuitively grasped the higher significance of the 6% number and thought it to be more relevant.

Much appreciated!

[CAwireman]

Yes, I agree Lindi. My expectation for NPR is on the higher side.

Here are some excerpts from the UT article:

Can someone help me understand these two statements:

“The market ended the year with a median price of $483,000 for all homes, off 6.4 percent from December 2005.”

“The overall median price of a home in the county last year slipped 0.8 percent, to $490,000, down from 2005’s $494,000. The annual decline was the first since a 1.8 percent drop from 1994 to 1995, when the median stood at $166,000.”

Foreclosure story

Meanwhile, the market provided only heartache for first-time buyer Andy Sobel. He faces foreclosure on a one-bedroom condo he bought for $240,000 two years ago in Rolando, a neighborhood southeast of San Diego State University.

Sobel took out first and second mortgages with adjustable rates to make the purchase, and once the monthly payments started adjusting upward and the value of his condo fell, he said he had no choice but to stop making his payments.

He’s now in the foreclosure process and while his condo is up for sale at a much reduced price – as low as $165,000 – he’s had few nibbles.

“I was a naive buyer, I’ll admit, but no one should have put me in this loan,” said Sobel, who works at the San Diego Organizing Project, a faith-based group advocating for low-income families. “I make very little working for a nonprofit.

“This has been a very demoralizing thing; you feel like a complete idiot living paycheck to paycheck. But it turns out that foreclosure is not that uncommon. But it is very harsh on the psyche.”

[CAwireman]

Links:

SD Union Trib article         http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20070116-9999-1n16housing.html

Table by zipcode http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070116/images/prices.pdf

         

 

 

[CAwireman]

Santeeman, nice data. Some observations…

If my math is correct the average home cost in Dec, 2005 was $609,396. (Value of closed sales/number of closed sales)

Whereas, the average in Dec, 2006 was $605,539. So, Dec 05 was $3.8K higher than 06.

Comparison between 05 and 06:

January 05 is $6,818 per unit less than 06
February 05 is $45,155 per unit less than 06
March 05 is $37,242 per unit less than 06
April 05 is $30,479 per unit less than 06
May 05 is $31,109 per unit less than 06
June 05 is $3,881 per unit less than 06
July 05 is $7,122 per unit more than 06
August 05 is $29,428 per unit more than 06
September 05 is $824 per unit more than 06
October 05 is $31,952 per unit more than 06
November 05 is $485,235 per unit more than 06
December 05 is $3859 per unit more than 06

I think some of the monthly data may be skewed. Look at
November 05/06 numbers (unless I made a mistake with the spreadsheet). Overall, 05 costs per unit per month, were higher than 06, until July 06 forward.

Much appreciated Santeeman.

[CAwireman]

Rent vs Buy Spreadsheet

 

            Link

 

Is this the spreadsheet you used?

[CAwireman]

This has become news now. So, I guess the RE industry will begin a new wave of damage control.

Still hoping to see a report that details the number of subprime loans resetting in the next 2 years, by zipcode.

I’m sure its available somewhere, I just need to scour via Google for it….

[CAwireman]

Wasn’t able to edit the above to include all the sources in the title. 3 sources.

[CAwireman]

PS, I’ll poke around and see what I can find.

[CAwireman]

By the way, looks like the UK has already began to divest.
They’ve dropped from $207b to $95b in 12 months.

China has dropped about $30b while Japan has grown about $30b, during the same time frame.

“A billion here, a billion there pretty soon you’re talking about some real money”.

[CAwireman]

JG,

Again, it was great to shake hands with you at the meet up and talk to the contributor of all those great graphs and analysis.

So, if the either China/Japan or both begin liquidating, what does that look like? How do they liquidate? They sell the loans (correct?) and if so, who buys them?

Or, if I’m way off the mark, what’s likely to take place if either of both try to get the heck out of Dodge?

Hope the holidays were good to you and your family.

[Author]

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