[Carlsbadliving]

Here's an article on the auction from today's UT.

[Carlsbadliving]

I’m 29, not orginally from CA, been here about 3 years. Married with the first kid on the way. Double income with about 100k ready for a downpayment. Would love to fall back to one income once the kid comes. Will most likely relocate to Wash. state within a year, mostly for family reasons. The wife is originally from there. I guess for us, California was just a stop over. I think if things hadn’t gotten so out of control while we were here, we would have more strongly considered staying here. We both like it here, it just comes down to cost of living of family. If we stayed here, we’d both have to keep working, while a move to Wash will hopefully afford my wife to stop working and we’ll also have family support to help with the kid. And I’m sure that we’ll still be looking at least another year of renting there as well waiting for that marekt to bottom out.

[Carlsbadliving]

Wow, I’m amazed at the small difference in monthly payments between a 30yr and 50yr fixed. Thinking about the amount of interest you’d pay over a 50 year period just about makes me sick.

[Carlsbadliving]

Definetly not a fun commute. During rush hour you’d be looking at a minimum hour on a good day, but probably closer to 1.5 hrs on average.

[Carlsbadliving]

You’re right. Moody’s prediction was for SFH resales. According to the article those are down 4.3% from the peak.

[Carlsbadliving]

I have the same question. What’s the breakdown on say the sale of a $500,000 home. 6% commission would be 30k.

Where does that 30k go?

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Nevermind, looks like you just answered my question.

[Carlsbadliving]

I think we’re just in the “denial” stage right now. Many sellers have pulled their houses off the market and will try again in the spring, thinking things will improve. I think by spring when sales are still down, things will really start to tumble.

[Carlsbadliving]

Remember also that the SD school district is primarily in all of the older built-out portions of the city. So with very little room for actual population growth, the changing demographics has a lot to do with it.

[Carlsbadliving]

I used to live in Seattle and there’s absolutley no comparision between Issaquah and Vista. Nothing in common at all between the two.

[Carlsbadliving]

It really depends on the area of Vista. There are nice parts with large lots and custom homes. Other parts of Vista could be mistaken for Tijuana. But if you’re working somewhere down in San Diego, the commute would be horrendous.

[Carlsbadliving]

I rent a 3bed/2bath 30 yr old house (and very run down) for 1825/month. At the peak it could have sold for 550k.

[Carlsbadliving]

I think that Daniel is on the right track. Building regulations have something to do with it. I work as a land planning consultant. My company would not exist without the extensive land development regulations and the difficulty involved in SoCal development. California has long been ground zero for environmental efforts. We are forced to protect the wetlands, the bluffs, the canyons, the hillsides, etc. What’s there to protect in Kansas? Why would the environmentalists make a stink about a new subdivision on the outskirts of Omaha?

However, this is not new and has for some time caused prices to be more expensive in California. And things ARE getting worse, each year there are new regulations and more red tape to fight through. And we are slowly running out of land, but the end is a long time off. But I think that people buy into all of this. They believe that things are different here, that we are out of land, that EVERYONE wants to live here, and then they take action. Go to any Planning Commission or City Council hearing and listen to the NIMBYs. Once their house is built and they get moved in they don’t want any more development. They say “This place is special so let’s protect it”. It’s perfect for them. They can protest and pass initiatives forcing slow-growth development and that ends up limiting supply and forcing prices up. Who wouldn’t want fewer people moving in and higher property values? And then everyone realizes what’s happening and think that they must buy at any price if they ever want a chance to own in this paradise, then things spiral out of control.

But in the end you can’t have both. You can’t cut the supply, increase the price and expect it to last. As we see now, people will take their money and leave, and nobody will come to replace them. It has to reach equilibrium. Something has to give. The prices have to come down or the incomes have to come up.

I can’t predict the future, but it’s impossible to imagine it getting any cheaper to build here but at the same time I also can’t imagine incomes here suddenly skyrocketing. What does that mean? Most likely, sizeable price drops.

[Carlsbadliving]

I drove around Del Sur a few weeks ago and that place was a ghost town. It will definelty be nice and quiet out there for anybody dumb enough to buy. It’s so secluded out there but yet the houses are still right on top of each other. Why live in BFE if you can still reach out and touch you’re neighbor? I think that Del Sur will be hit extremely hard!!!

[Carlsbadliving]

I also having trouble logging in. The weird thing is that I can only reply to certain topics. I was trying to comment on other topics and it asks me to login again and then takes me to Page Not Found. This topic just says reply, so I was able to leave this comment.

[Carlsbadliving]

Talk about chasing down the market. Why don’t they just lower it $1,000/day.

Wow, think about that…. $1,000 a day, gone…..

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