[capeman]

Hey, whoever posted the link to Market-Ticker, thanks! Was it you, capeman? Powayseller has found it too and her screen name is Peace. Ah, what beautiful irony!

I might have posted it but that is definitely an outstanding site with lots of great data behind the arguments. That site is as valuable a resource to smart investors as Piggington is to the housing market in SD.

I'll have to watch out for Peace on there. Probably going to see a copycat of the Ticker up soon with full bashing of KD and charging for it. ;0

[capeman]

Hey, whoever posted the link to Market-Ticker, thanks! Was it you, capeman? Powayseller has found it too and her screen name is Peace. Ah, what beautiful irony!

I might have posted it but that is definitely an outstanding site with lots of great data behind the arguments. That site is as valuable a resource to smart investors as Piggington is to the housing market in SD.

I'll have to watch out for Peace on there. Probably going to see a copycat of the Ticker up soon with full bashing of KD and charging for it. ;0

[capeman]

Be careful expecting a rally at this point. There has been to much going on on the sell-side lately to think that this is just going to turn around. Even the better than expected GDP numbers couldn’t bring the rally back. There is not much in the way of good financial news to be expected in the near term and the credit market is getting hammered by more bad news everyday. Credit markets lead equities down and when AAA rated bonds are getting re-rated to BBB junk bonds (never supposed to happen!) that doesn’t bode anything outside of shite for the credit markets.

I’m not expecting more than dead cat bounces in the near term. It’s going down, just a matter of how far or how fast it is going down. Guard yourself on your longs and be watchful of what happens in the Asian and European markets this week. They give good indicators of whether this is a local or global meltdown we are seeing.

[capeman]

Be careful expecting a rally at this point. There has been to much going on on the sell-side lately to think that this is just going to turn around. Even the better than expected GDP numbers couldn’t bring the rally back. There is not much in the way of good financial news to be expected in the near term and the credit market is getting hammered by more bad news everyday. Credit markets lead equities down and when AAA rated bonds are getting re-rated to BBB junk bonds (never supposed to happen!) that doesn’t bode anything outside of shite for the credit markets.

I’m not expecting more than dead cat bounces in the near term. It’s going down, just a matter of how far or how fast it is going down. Guard yourself on your longs and be watchful of what happens in the Asian and European markets this week. They give good indicators of whether this is a local or global meltdown we are seeing.

[capeman]

Well that is truly amazing and quite frankly ranks you as the greatest trader who has ever lived. To not have taken one short at all during this whole bull run, then loaded the boat at the exact high! I speak with many of the greats, and am aware of most of what the ones I do not talk to are doing, and none of them have been that good.

Don't be confused by how I wrote that post. I had a splendid week by timing the shorts right but earlier in the year I did some losing with bad timing on the HBs and Indices. I finally put my money where my mouth was last week and got some luck to boot. It could have easily gone the other way if Mozillo-monster could have cooked the books and I would have watched my shorts evaporate. Now it's time to take that snowball and roll it down the hill with the upcoming crash.

[capeman]

Well that is truly amazing and quite frankly ranks you as the greatest trader who has ever lived. To not have taken one short at all during this whole bull run, then loaded the boat at the exact high! I speak with many of the greats, and am aware of most of what the ones I do not talk to are doing, and none of them have been that good.

Don't be confused by how I wrote that post. I had a splendid week by timing the shorts right but earlier in the year I did some losing with bad timing on the HBs and Indices. I finally put my money where my mouth was last week and got some luck to boot. It could have easily gone the other way if Mozillo-monster could have cooked the books and I would have watched my shorts evaporate. Now it's time to take that snowball and roll it down the hill with the upcoming crash.

[capeman]

True, I lost some on the Indices and HBs with bad timing. For the last year I’ve been researching and trying to time the credit market crash which is currently happening. See companies like CFC and inflated indices with a very apparent impending correction it has worked really well. If I had gotten myself into options trading the last couple of years I probably would have lost all. It is just like you said gambling but so is blindly playing long. Either way with research and testing you can better the odds a bit in your favor. I’ve been waiting 7 years to make money off of the fact that I can’t afford a home in my hometown of SD. Now is the time to play smart, play hard and maybe get a down payment for the home I will buy in 09-10…. if all goes well that is.

[capeman]

True, I lost some on the Indices and HBs with bad timing. For the last year I’ve been researching and trying to time the credit market crash which is currently happening. See companies like CFC and inflated indices with a very apparent impending correction it has worked really well. If I had gotten myself into options trading the last couple of years I probably would have lost all. It is just like you said gambling but so is blindly playing long. Either way with research and testing you can better the odds a bit in your favor. I’ve been waiting 7 years to make money off of the fact that I can’t afford a home in my hometown of SD. Now is the time to play smart, play hard and maybe get a down payment for the home I will buy in 09-10…. if all goes well that is.

[capeman]

This is a slide that's not based on an event, not based on a loss, not based on an economic downturn, it's merely based on one word: subprime

Don't get confused over that term.  Subprime is a catchword for the media trying to play and spin the bad data coming in.  In the last week a lot of Prime MBS has been downgraded to Subprime status.  That coupled with CFC reports stating that Prime HELOCs are beginning to go unpaid gives a glimpse that at somepoint the media will have to turn to the use of the term Prime to explain things.  When that happens the shat has hit the fan.

Don't be confused by the GDP report.  Consumer spending which is normally 70% of the GDP came in at ~1%.  It went negative in June which likely means bad things and likely a bad Q3 report will be coming.  The Q2 GDP seems snowed and fudged and will likely be revised downward. 

[capeman]

This is a slide that's not based on an event, not based on a loss, not based on an economic downturn, it's merely based on one word: subprime

Don't get confused over that term.  Subprime is a catchword for the media trying to play and spin the bad data coming in.  In the last week a lot of Prime MBS has been downgraded to Subprime status.  That coupled with CFC reports stating that Prime HELOCs are beginning to go unpaid gives a glimpse that at somepoint the media will have to turn to the use of the term Prime to explain things.  When that happens the shat has hit the fan.

Don't be confused by the GDP report.  Consumer spending which is normally 70% of the GDP came in at ~1%.  It went negative in June which likely means bad things and likely a bad Q3 report will be coming.  The Q2 GDP seems snowed and fudged and will likely be revised downward. 

[capeman]

Where do you stand on the position as a whole? Are we to believe that you waited every day for 12 months to short until the day before yesterday and got the exact high? If not, you are probably at best even on your puts if not still upside down due to time erosion as well as price. Also, % gains on options are less meaningful than the gross dollars made. I know people that talk about 50% returns etc, but they only have a few thousand in, so 50% is not an appreciable amount of gross dollars even though it sounds great at cocktail parties.

Yep, placed my bets on the table on Monday and the CFC earnings triggered the downfall.  Half of my total portfolio is short at this point with the only long position being my company stock.  The short half of the portfolio saw 300% plus this week with about 10 different short positions.  This was one of those weeks you couldn't lose if you were short unless against AAPL or AMZN.  With that steep sell-off at the end of day Friday below many support levels on the indices Monday could be very black.  I'd even consider selling my company only to be able to buy back cheaper in the near future but I am restricted on that one. 

[capeman]

Where do you stand on the position as a whole? Are we to believe that you waited every day for 12 months to short until the day before yesterday and got the exact high? If not, you are probably at best even on your puts if not still upside down due to time erosion as well as price. Also, % gains on options are less meaningful than the gross dollars made. I know people that talk about 50% returns etc, but they only have a few thousand in, so 50% is not an appreciable amount of gross dollars even though it sounds great at cocktail parties.

Yep, placed my bets on the table on Monday and the CFC earnings triggered the downfall.  Half of my total portfolio is short at this point with the only long position being my company stock.  The short half of the portfolio saw 300% plus this week with about 10 different short positions.  This was one of those weeks you couldn't lose if you were short unless against AAPL or AMZN.  With that steep sell-off at the end of day Friday below many support levels on the indices Monday could be very black.  I'd even consider selling my company only to be able to buy back cheaper in the near future but I am restricted on that one. 

[capeman]

Bet against them on Monday and doubled my portfolio in two days. Man I’ve been waiting for them to dive. I pulled out of my BSC puts prematurely yesterday with a 60% gain. Would have had 200% percent after today. Tomorrow should be fun if you look what happened to the Yen and NIKKEI in the last two days.

[capeman]

Bet against them on Monday and doubled my portfolio in two days. Man I’ve been waiting for them to dive. I pulled out of my BSC puts prematurely yesterday with a 60% gain. Would have had 200% percent after today. Tomorrow should be fun if you look what happened to the Yen and NIKKEI in the last two days.

[capeman]

Watch the NIKKEI tonight to see what may lead into another bear pull in the US markets tomorrow. The Yen gained a lot today which now threatens to unwind the carry trade. If there is a violent reaction in the Asian markets this evening that will likely spread back to us in the morning.

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