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Here is a valid reason to buy in this market: you are down sizing and found a GF to buy your larger property.

Are you impling that VW and BMW break more often?

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You cannot say it’s a landlord market because your example doesn’t apply to all landlords. On the other hand, all renters are paying less than if they would buy at today’s prices. It is not a buyers market because of this same reason and the fact that appreciation will not return until at least two years from today. If you are a seller that bought long time ago it is still a very good market.

My take:

-Great renter market
-Great landlord or seller market for some
-Poor buyer market

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It is not a sellers or a buyers market. It is a renters market.

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The Verano condos dropped another $20K in late December. Their signs have read from 2005 to today: $420K->$380K->$360K->$340K

I guess a “used” condo would be $20K less so if you bought at the top you are now down $100K + commission

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Sorry I posted by mistake in the wrong thread.

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If you have Excel this is a simple spreadsheet that may be helpful. (The state tax break calculations may be wrong) You basicaly fill the blue cells and it is good only for the first year of owning.

Rent vs Buy Excel

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So the $730,000 purchase that may be made this weekend is based on an on-line Rent-vs-Buy calculation. The crazy things young people do!

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In 1994, Mexican private banks were going to go bankrupt and the goverment save them. A similar scenario would be the worst outcome of the bubble bursting. The only English source of information I have about the matter is from Wikipedia. Below are some excerpts and the link.

“FOBAPROA (Fondo Bancario de Protección al Ahorro or “Banking Fund for the Protection of Savings”) is a controversial fund created in Mexico in 1990 to attempt to resolve liquidity problems of the banking system in that country. The Fobaproa was applied in 1994 during the economic crisis to protect all Mexican banks from going bankrupt, and thus destroying the Mexican Economy.”

“The Fobaproa assumed debt for 552 billion dollars (equivalent to 40% of GDP of Mexico in 1997 or 2/3 of the budget for 1998). Not applying the Fobaproa would have likely caused an interruption of credit and withdrawal from saving accounts for millions of families and thousands of companies.”

Nobody is accountable or went to jail for the fall out of the banks, only the tax payers remain with the debt payments that continue to take out a very large portion of the goverment tax revenue.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fobaproa

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My personal experience is that rents went up this year about the same as last year(4%). If you the read the article two research firms say that rents increased by less than 4% and the other research firm by 5.8%.

The U-T is really trying hard to spin the news so they look better for RE. This hilarious article cites that prices will not drop that much by quoting students that are not even from San Diego.

From the article:

“Bridget Mendez, 23, of Los Angeles was the most optimistic. She based her outlook on what she found in the South Bay market.

“When you drive the area, you see a lot of young buyers, new townhouses, definitely a lot of potential for the future,” Mendez said. ”

Another “researcher” uses Dataquick numbers and the other believes prices will start going up again by 2017 and hopes he will make enough money by then to afford a home.

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A better argument is that the median skews to the low end during sellers/bull markets. For example, right now when the market is starting to turn to a buyers market, the median priced house may be larger and of better quality than last year. During the peak of the boom, the median priced houses may have been smaller and of less quality. If this is the case, the median could be a good indicator of the rate of price change because even though it overestimates the price during buyers markets, it underestimates the prices during sellers markets.

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Another gem:

“Eventually, he’ll be responsible for making full payments of $6,000 a month, he said, adding, ‘I don’t know how we’ll be able to pay that.’”

“‘It’s not just the financial aspect. It’s the emotional,’ Dunn said. ‘We can’t eat, can’t sleep. I can’t concentrate on work. This is all I think about.’”

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Low enough to be cash positive or even neutral when renting?

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In my opinion everybody that could buy in the last 2-3 years already bought. The peer pressure and the fear of being priced out was just too much. I assume all these charts are for after tax income.

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The weather continues to be fantastic and the Chargers continue winning! People will continue to pay and arm and a leg to live here. The Shamu incident may put some downward pressure on prices but this will be short lived if there is a new baby Panda by next spring.

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When I was looking for cars last July, BMW and Lexus didn’t have incentives but other brands had. Those brands are currently very hot with mostly new models.

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