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bubba99
ParticipantDaniel,
I follow the argument about using more health care, but if I must pay 15% more for my coverage this year than last, and each visit is 10% more expensive because of higher demand, and CPI says it is only 3%, what is the other 12%?
Is the suggestion that Joe Middle Class does not experience the other 12% increase, or that the benefit of the insurance is now 12% greater to him – so no effect on CPI?
Another question stems from your statement that “most people don’t fully grasp what the CPI measures; it measures changes in the price of the SAME goods or services”. Did you not know that it no longer measures the same bread basket of goods? That various supstitutions and geometric weightings and other inclusions since 1980 prevent it from measuring the SAME goods?
ParticipantDaniel,
I follow the argument about using more health care, but if I must pay 15% more for my coverage this year than last, and each visit is 10% more expensive because of higher demand, and CPI says it is only 3%, what is the other 12%?
Is the suggestion that Joe Middle Class does not experience the other 12% increase, or that the benefit of the insurance is now 12% greater to him – so no effect on CPI?
Another question stems from your statement that “most people don’t fully grasp what the CPI measures; it measures changes in the price of the SAME goods or services”. Did you not know that it no longer measures the same bread basket of goods? That various supstitutions and geometric weightings and other inclusions since 1980 prevent it from measuring the SAME goods?
ParticipantI have read the various primers on Shadowstats, and I agree with most of the methodology, and criticisms of changes to basic numbers like employment, and inflation. The governments methodology is seriously flawed and shadow stats points out where.
It must be hard for bureaucrats to argue with a straight face that inflation should be reduced for factors like the greater pleasure derived from digital readouts on a washer, or MTBE in gasoline from the pump. Even harder is the buyers choice benefit from selecting hamburger when steak gets too expensive. Even worse is removing the “volitle” food and energy impact on inflation. This would only be good for someone who is starving and freezing in the dark. Food and energy are integral to survival. The geometric weighting of cost increases is so prone to political manipulation, it renders the quality of the entire CPI suspect.
The 7% adder to CPI suggested by John Williams seems to be much closer to what I experience at the store. The employment numbers sare likewise better in shadowstats than from the BLS. I had no idea that 80% of the employment number was a population model with a 150k upward bias each month.
Take away the political crap and un-employment is closer to the range of 10 to 13 percent. The higher numbers are way closer to the impact I see on american college graduates who cannot obtain career types of employment in our so called 4.5% unemployment market.
ParticipantI have read the various primers on Shadowstats, and I agree with most of the methodology, and criticisms of changes to basic numbers like employment, and inflation. The governments methodology is seriously flawed and shadow stats points out where.
It must be hard for bureaucrats to argue with a straight face that inflation should be reduced for factors like the greater pleasure derived from digital readouts on a washer, or MTBE in gasoline from the pump. Even harder is the buyers choice benefit from selecting hamburger when steak gets too expensive. Even worse is removing the “volitle” food and energy impact on inflation. This would only be good for someone who is starving and freezing in the dark. Food and energy are integral to survival. The geometric weighting of cost increases is so prone to political manipulation, it renders the quality of the entire CPI suspect.
The 7% adder to CPI suggested by John Williams seems to be much closer to what I experience at the store. The employment numbers sare likewise better in shadowstats than from the BLS. I had no idea that 80% of the employment number was a population model with a 150k upward bias each month.
Take away the political crap and un-employment is closer to the range of 10 to 13 percent. The higher numbers are way closer to the impact I see on american college graduates who cannot obtain career types of employment in our so called 4.5% unemployment market.
ParticipantI have read the various primers on Shadowstats, and I agree with most of the methodology, and criticisms of changes to basic numbers like employment, and inflation. The governments methodology is seriously flawed and shadow stats points out where.
It must be hard for bureaucrats to argue with a straight face that inflation should be reduced for factors like the greater pleasure derived from digital readouts on a washer, or MTBE in gasoline from the pump. Even harder is the buyers choice benefit from selecting hamburger when steak gets too expensive. Even worse is removing the “volitle” food and energy impact on inflation. This would only be good for someone who is starving and freezing in the dark. Food and energy are integral to survival. The geometric weighting of cost increases is so prone to political manipulation, it renders the quality of the entire CPI suspect.
The 7% adder to CPI suggested by John Williams seems to be much closer to what I experience at the store. The employment numbers sare likewise better in shadowstats than from the BLS. I had no idea that 80% of the employment number was a population model with a 150k upward bias each month.
Take away the political crap and un-employment is closer to the range of 10 to 13 percent. The higher numbers are way closer to the impact I see on american college graduates who cannot obtain career types of employment in our so called 4.5% unemployment market.
ParticipantI have read the various primers on Shadowstats, and I agree with most of the methodology, and criticisms of changes to basic numbers like employment, and inflation. The governments methodology is seriously flawed and shadow stats points out where.
It must be hard for bureaucrats to argue with a straight face that inflation should be reduced for factors like the greater pleasure derived from digital readouts on a washer, or MTBE in gasoline from the pump. Even harder is the buyers choice benefit from selecting hamburger when steak gets too expensive. Even worse is removing the “volitle” food and energy impact on inflation. This would only be good for someone who is starving and freezing in the dark. Food and energy are integral to survival. The geometric weighting of cost increases is so prone to political manipulation, it renders the quality of the entire CPI suspect.
The 7% adder to CPI suggested by John Williams seems to be much closer to what I experience at the store. The employment numbers sare likewise better in shadowstats than from the BLS. I had no idea that 80% of the employment number was a population model with a 150k upward bias each month.
Take away the political crap and un-employment is closer to the range of 10 to 13 percent. The higher numbers are way closer to the impact I see on american college graduates who cannot obtain career types of employment in our so called 4.5% unemployment market.
ParticipantI have read the various primers on Shadowstats, and I agree with most of the methodology, and criticisms of changes to basic numbers like employment, and inflation. The governments methodology is seriously flawed and shadow stats points out where.
It must be hard for bureaucrats to argue with a straight face that inflation should be reduced for factors like the greater pleasure derived from digital readouts on a washer, or MTBE in gasoline from the pump. Even harder is the buyers choice benefit from selecting hamburger when steak gets too expensive. Even worse is removing the “volitle” food and energy impact on inflation. This would only be good for someone who is starving and freezing in the dark. Food and energy are integral to survival. The geometric weighting of cost increases is so prone to political manipulation, it renders the quality of the entire CPI suspect.
The 7% adder to CPI suggested by John Williams seems to be much closer to what I experience at the store. The employment numbers sare likewise better in shadowstats than from the BLS. I had no idea that 80% of the employment number was a population model with a 150k upward bias each month.
Take away the political crap and un-employment is closer to the range of 10 to 13 percent. The higher numbers are way closer to the impact I see on american college graduates who cannot obtain career types of employment in our so called 4.5% unemployment market.
ParticipantWe have seen these types of declines before, and the next week the market jumps back up. As the FED announces a 1/2% cut in the discount rate next week, we will probably see another 200 plus day.
If you believe the un-employment numbers (i dont) then things are not that bad. Five percent un-employment is great, and 6 or 7 percent is still O.K. If you believe the inflation numbers (i dont) we are still under 3% and in great territory. With the talking heads saying that manufacturing is not as important any more because we import a lot of finished goods, many will still believe that things are fine. Remember that with real inflation at about 10%, and official inflation at 3%, you need negative 7% growth to become an official recession – negative growth in GDP
If you believe that we are not in a recession now (i don’t) then what will it take to convice most Americans that we are actually in one. I think that they will be able to keep the markets bubbled for some time to come.
ParticipantWe have seen these types of declines before, and the next week the market jumps back up. As the FED announces a 1/2% cut in the discount rate next week, we will probably see another 200 plus day.
If you believe the un-employment numbers (i dont) then things are not that bad. Five percent un-employment is great, and 6 or 7 percent is still O.K. If you believe the inflation numbers (i dont) we are still under 3% and in great territory. With the talking heads saying that manufacturing is not as important any more because we import a lot of finished goods, many will still believe that things are fine. Remember that with real inflation at about 10%, and official inflation at 3%, you need negative 7% growth to become an official recession – negative growth in GDP
If you believe that we are not in a recession now (i don’t) then what will it take to convice most Americans that we are actually in one. I think that they will be able to keep the markets bubbled for some time to come.
ParticipantWe have seen these types of declines before, and the next week the market jumps back up. As the FED announces a 1/2% cut in the discount rate next week, we will probably see another 200 plus day.
If you believe the un-employment numbers (i dont) then things are not that bad. Five percent un-employment is great, and 6 or 7 percent is still O.K. If you believe the inflation numbers (i dont) we are still under 3% and in great territory. With the talking heads saying that manufacturing is not as important any more because we import a lot of finished goods, many will still believe that things are fine. Remember that with real inflation at about 10%, and official inflation at 3%, you need negative 7% growth to become an official recession – negative growth in GDP
If you believe that we are not in a recession now (i don’t) then what will it take to convice most Americans that we are actually in one. I think that they will be able to keep the markets bubbled for some time to come.
ParticipantWe have seen these types of declines before, and the next week the market jumps back up. As the FED announces a 1/2% cut in the discount rate next week, we will probably see another 200 plus day.
If you believe the un-employment numbers (i dont) then things are not that bad. Five percent un-employment is great, and 6 or 7 percent is still O.K. If you believe the inflation numbers (i dont) we are still under 3% and in great territory. With the talking heads saying that manufacturing is not as important any more because we import a lot of finished goods, many will still believe that things are fine. Remember that with real inflation at about 10%, and official inflation at 3%, you need negative 7% growth to become an official recession – negative growth in GDP
If you believe that we are not in a recession now (i don’t) then what will it take to convice most Americans that we are actually in one. I think that they will be able to keep the markets bubbled for some time to come.
ParticipantWe have seen these types of declines before, and the next week the market jumps back up. As the FED announces a 1/2% cut in the discount rate next week, we will probably see another 200 plus day.
If you believe the un-employment numbers (i dont) then things are not that bad. Five percent un-employment is great, and 6 or 7 percent is still O.K. If you believe the inflation numbers (i dont) we are still under 3% and in great territory. With the talking heads saying that manufacturing is not as important any more because we import a lot of finished goods, many will still believe that things are fine. Remember that with real inflation at about 10%, and official inflation at 3%, you need negative 7% growth to become an official recession – negative growth in GDP
If you believe that we are not in a recession now (i don’t) then what will it take to convice most Americans that we are actually in one. I think that they will be able to keep the markets bubbled for some time to come.
ParticipantAtry,
Get your money out of the un-insured account now. Wells Fargo is the lowest paying bank around. The money is not safe, and even if it were, you should be getting 10% not 4.75% on a B.S. uninsured bank garbage fund. Remember how many people lost everything in the last real estate turndown.
Capital one is offering 4.5 on an insured money market, Wachovia is offering 5%+ on a 5 month certificate – all completely insured. Open a brokerage account and get 4.5% on the money in your trading account (completely insured)at morgan stanley or other big names.
Go to Wells Fargo, cash out the non-insured account, get a cashiers check and take it down the street.
ParticipantAtry,
Get your money out of the un-insured account now. Wells Fargo is the lowest paying bank around. The money is not safe, and even if it were, you should be getting 10% not 4.75% on a B.S. uninsured bank garbage fund. Remember how many people lost everything in the last real estate turndown.
Capital one is offering 4.5 on an insured money market, Wachovia is offering 5%+ on a 5 month certificate – all completely insured. Open a brokerage account and get 4.5% on the money in your trading account (completely insured)at morgan stanley or other big names.
Go to Wells Fargo, cash out the non-insured account, get a cashiers check and take it down the street.
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