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bearishgurl
Participant[quote=CognitiveDissonance]When ever I see a headline about “plunging birthrates” it makes me happy. That’s because I look at things like carrying capacity and ecological footprint. Things like species extinction, loss of biodiversity, top soil erosion, access to clean water, energy depletion, deforestation and a list a mile and half long.
Interestingly the US has bucked the trend of the other mature industrialized countries. Thankfully most the world’s population growth is in dramatic decline that started in the 60s, with some going negative. All studies indicate this trend will continue and is speeding up. Max population numbers continually get lower as time goes on and data comes it. The best estimates now suggest a peak near mid-century, probably under 9 billion, and long decline after that.
This trend still does nothing to address the issues associated with massive over consumption and unsustainable nature of the whole project spiraling towards a social train wreck. For some reason, pointing this out, makes me a freak.
Interestingly, we have pushed this behavioral trajectory on “emerging economies” putting them on a collision course with the west in resource competition. Well, unless, we are going to get another earth to support these trajectories, it won’t end well.[/quote]
Good post, Arraya. You’re no “freak.”
I think the reason there are a LOT of children in CA, in particular, is due to immigration, both legal and illegal.
I just finished a pet-sitting job in a house with wa-a-a-a-y too much stuff in it, making it difficult to take care of the pets. The couple was elderly and enjoyed going to garage sales and thrift stores on the weekends. They aren’t the only ones I know with MASSIVE amounts of stuff stacked up to the rafters. For the life of me, how can a household of 1-4 people use or use up all this stuff in their lifetimes?? Most people can’t even park one vehicle in their garage. This “over-consumption” phenomenon cuts through all socioeconomic groups. In the WWII group (like my pet owners), I believe it stems from not having enough during the great depression (so they don’t want to run of anything now).
I’m with you in that I believe in preserving what resources we have left and living as “green” (and austere) as possible!
Participant[quote=CognitiveDissonance]When ever I see a headline about “plunging birthrates” it makes me happy. That’s because I look at things like carrying capacity and ecological footprint. Things like species extinction, loss of biodiversity, top soil erosion, access to clean water, energy depletion, deforestation and a list a mile and half long.
Interestingly the US has bucked the trend of the other mature industrialized countries. Thankfully most the world’s population growth is in dramatic decline that started in the 60s, with some going negative. All studies indicate this trend will continue and is speeding up. Max population numbers continually get lower as time goes on and data comes it. The best estimates now suggest a peak near mid-century, probably under 9 billion, and long decline after that.
This trend still does nothing to address the issues associated with massive over consumption and unsustainable nature of the whole project spiraling towards a social train wreck. For some reason, pointing this out, makes me a freak.
Interestingly, we have pushed this behavioral trajectory on “emerging economies” putting them on a collision course with the west in resource competition. Well, unless, we are going to get another earth to support these trajectories, it won’t end well.[/quote]
Good post, Arraya. You’re no “freak.”
I think the reason there are a LOT of children in CA, in particular, is due to immigration, both legal and illegal.
I just finished a pet-sitting job in a house with wa-a-a-a-y too much stuff in it, making it difficult to take care of the pets. The couple was elderly and enjoyed going to garage sales and thrift stores on the weekends. They aren’t the only ones I know with MASSIVE amounts of stuff stacked up to the rafters. For the life of me, how can a household of 1-4 people use or use up all this stuff in their lifetimes?? Most people can’t even park one vehicle in their garage. This “over-consumption” phenomenon cuts through all socioeconomic groups. In the WWII group (like my pet owners), I believe it stems from not having enough during the great depression (so they don’t want to run of anything now).
I’m with you in that I believe in preserving what resources we have left and living as “green” (and austere) as possible!
ParticipantIt’s very simple, AN.
Why don’t you start with 4S Ranch, starting from the lowest price homes on up to the 3000 sf ones? Compare their lot sizes to neighboring 1970’s Rancho Bernardo homes.
Then order the plats on Otay Ranch (Chula Vista) and compare lot sizes of its tracts to neighboring Castle Park (91911), now 40-55 years old.
I believe the average lot size difference to be about 2500 sf.
As an example, these two areas were built out since 2000.
A cheaper, easier way is to just look at the satellite pics on the newer and older tracts online on Bing or Google maps and compare them. The level of density is shocking on the newer tracts, often built out in the middle of nowhere.
ParticipantIt’s very simple, AN.
Why don’t you start with 4S Ranch, starting from the lowest price homes on up to the 3000 sf ones? Compare their lot sizes to neighboring 1970’s Rancho Bernardo homes.
Then order the plats on Otay Ranch (Chula Vista) and compare lot sizes of its tracts to neighboring Castle Park (91911), now 40-55 years old.
I believe the average lot size difference to be about 2500 sf.
As an example, these two areas were built out since 2000.
A cheaper, easier way is to just look at the satellite pics on the newer and older tracts online on Bing or Google maps and compare them. The level of density is shocking on the newer tracts, often built out in the middle of nowhere.
ParticipantIt’s very simple, AN.
Why don’t you start with 4S Ranch, starting from the lowest price homes on up to the 3000 sf ones? Compare their lot sizes to neighboring 1970’s Rancho Bernardo homes.
Then order the plats on Otay Ranch (Chula Vista) and compare lot sizes of its tracts to neighboring Castle Park (91911), now 40-55 years old.
I believe the average lot size difference to be about 2500 sf.
As an example, these two areas were built out since 2000.
A cheaper, easier way is to just look at the satellite pics on the newer and older tracts online on Bing or Google maps and compare them. The level of density is shocking on the newer tracts, often built out in the middle of nowhere.
ParticipantIt’s very simple, AN.
Why don’t you start with 4S Ranch, starting from the lowest price homes on up to the 3000 sf ones? Compare their lot sizes to neighboring 1970’s Rancho Bernardo homes.
Then order the plats on Otay Ranch (Chula Vista) and compare lot sizes of its tracts to neighboring Castle Park (91911), now 40-55 years old.
I believe the average lot size difference to be about 2500 sf.
As an example, these two areas were built out since 2000.
A cheaper, easier way is to just look at the satellite pics on the newer and older tracts online on Bing or Google maps and compare them. The level of density is shocking on the newer tracts, often built out in the middle of nowhere.
ParticipantIt’s very simple, AN.
Why don’t you start with 4S Ranch, starting from the lowest price homes on up to the 3000 sf ones? Compare their lot sizes to neighboring 1970’s Rancho Bernardo homes.
Then order the plats on Otay Ranch (Chula Vista) and compare lot sizes of its tracts to neighboring Castle Park (91911), now 40-55 years old.
I believe the average lot size difference to be about 2500 sf.
As an example, these two areas were built out since 2000.
A cheaper, easier way is to just look at the satellite pics on the newer and older tracts online on Bing or Google maps and compare them. The level of density is shocking on the newer tracts, often built out in the middle of nowhere.
Participant[quote=Eugene][quote=briansd1]The suburbs and exurbs are an American phenomenon. For the younger globalized generations, I foresee a trend to “glamour cities” as Robert Shiller calls them. We will see in 50 years.[/quote]
I’m not sure what our younger globalized generations are going to pick up from their interactions with their foreign peers, but, in UK anyway, the “house and garden” has always been considered the arrangement to aspire to. Most people can’t afford them, because all major cities are built out wall to wall with apartments and townhouses, but it is absolutely not the case that Europeans love living in apartments.[/quote]
FWIW, on my recent trip to San Francisco (the “NYC” of the west coast), I visited three different single family homes in the City. Believe it or not, ALL had back yards. The home in the Sunset District had a large backyard and the owner had 3 large dogs. I would surmise the lot was AT LEAST 5000 sf. The grassy backyard was very well landscaped and had a large uncrowded trex deck with chaises, round umbrella dinette and gas BBQ.
Looks can be deceiving from the street when every home on the block is a “walkup” situated less than one foot from its neighbor.
Participant[quote=Eugene][quote=briansd1]The suburbs and exurbs are an American phenomenon. For the younger globalized generations, I foresee a trend to “glamour cities” as Robert Shiller calls them. We will see in 50 years.[/quote]
I’m not sure what our younger globalized generations are going to pick up from their interactions with their foreign peers, but, in UK anyway, the “house and garden” has always been considered the arrangement to aspire to. Most people can’t afford them, because all major cities are built out wall to wall with apartments and townhouses, but it is absolutely not the case that Europeans love living in apartments.[/quote]
FWIW, on my recent trip to San Francisco (the “NYC” of the west coast), I visited three different single family homes in the City. Believe it or not, ALL had back yards. The home in the Sunset District had a large backyard and the owner had 3 large dogs. I would surmise the lot was AT LEAST 5000 sf. The grassy backyard was very well landscaped and had a large uncrowded trex deck with chaises, round umbrella dinette and gas BBQ.
Looks can be deceiving from the street when every home on the block is a “walkup” situated less than one foot from its neighbor.
Participant[quote=Eugene][quote=briansd1]The suburbs and exurbs are an American phenomenon. For the younger globalized generations, I foresee a trend to “glamour cities” as Robert Shiller calls them. We will see in 50 years.[/quote]
I’m not sure what our younger globalized generations are going to pick up from their interactions with their foreign peers, but, in UK anyway, the “house and garden” has always been considered the arrangement to aspire to. Most people can’t afford them, because all major cities are built out wall to wall with apartments and townhouses, but it is absolutely not the case that Europeans love living in apartments.[/quote]
FWIW, on my recent trip to San Francisco (the “NYC” of the west coast), I visited three different single family homes in the City. Believe it or not, ALL had back yards. The home in the Sunset District had a large backyard and the owner had 3 large dogs. I would surmise the lot was AT LEAST 5000 sf. The grassy backyard was very well landscaped and had a large uncrowded trex deck with chaises, round umbrella dinette and gas BBQ.
Looks can be deceiving from the street when every home on the block is a “walkup” situated less than one foot from its neighbor.
Participant[quote=Eugene][quote=briansd1]The suburbs and exurbs are an American phenomenon. For the younger globalized generations, I foresee a trend to “glamour cities” as Robert Shiller calls them. We will see in 50 years.[/quote]
I’m not sure what our younger globalized generations are going to pick up from their interactions with their foreign peers, but, in UK anyway, the “house and garden” has always been considered the arrangement to aspire to. Most people can’t afford them, because all major cities are built out wall to wall with apartments and townhouses, but it is absolutely not the case that Europeans love living in apartments.[/quote]
FWIW, on my recent trip to San Francisco (the “NYC” of the west coast), I visited three different single family homes in the City. Believe it or not, ALL had back yards. The home in the Sunset District had a large backyard and the owner had 3 large dogs. I would surmise the lot was AT LEAST 5000 sf. The grassy backyard was very well landscaped and had a large uncrowded trex deck with chaises, round umbrella dinette and gas BBQ.
Looks can be deceiving from the street when every home on the block is a “walkup” situated less than one foot from its neighbor.
Participant[quote=Eugene][quote=briansd1]The suburbs and exurbs are an American phenomenon. For the younger globalized generations, I foresee a trend to “glamour cities” as Robert Shiller calls them. We will see in 50 years.[/quote]
I’m not sure what our younger globalized generations are going to pick up from their interactions with their foreign peers, but, in UK anyway, the “house and garden” has always been considered the arrangement to aspire to. Most people can’t afford them, because all major cities are built out wall to wall with apartments and townhouses, but it is absolutely not the case that Europeans love living in apartments.[/quote]
FWIW, on my recent trip to San Francisco (the “NYC” of the west coast), I visited three different single family homes in the City. Believe it or not, ALL had back yards. The home in the Sunset District had a large backyard and the owner had 3 large dogs. I would surmise the lot was AT LEAST 5000 sf. The grassy backyard was very well landscaped and had a large uncrowded trex deck with chaises, round umbrella dinette and gas BBQ.
Looks can be deceiving from the street when every home on the block is a “walkup” situated less than one foot from its neighbor.
Participant[quote=Eugene]…In the mean time, we saw the birth of the exurb. We filled all the useful space within reach of major cities, up to the edge of federally protected wilderness, with low-density detached housing….[/quote]
I disagree that “exurb” housing is primarily “low-density,” Eugene. In the SD County “exurbs”, the vast majority of =<3000 sf SFR's are built on substandard lots (<5000 sf), are encumbered with an HOA and also usually CFD(s). The vast majority of 30+ yr old houses in SD County sit on bigger lots and have far more desirable locations than those built in the "exurbs" in the last 15 years.
I agree with the rest of your post except for the outcome. I don't think there are enough public/private partnerships in place or enough capital interested in building low-income apts unless the Section 8 program is dramatically expanded. Even if City permit fees were waived, the numbers wouldn't pencil out.
If young families can't afford to live here (in the way they wish to) in the future, they won't. It's as simple as that. Not every region in the country is for everyone.
Participant[quote=Eugene]…In the mean time, we saw the birth of the exurb. We filled all the useful space within reach of major cities, up to the edge of federally protected wilderness, with low-density detached housing….[/quote]
I disagree that “exurb” housing is primarily “low-density,” Eugene. In the SD County “exurbs”, the vast majority of =<3000 sf SFR's are built on substandard lots (<5000 sf), are encumbered with an HOA and also usually CFD(s). The vast majority of 30+ yr old houses in SD County sit on bigger lots and have far more desirable locations than those built in the "exurbs" in the last 15 years.
I agree with the rest of your post except for the outcome. I don't think there are enough public/private partnerships in place or enough capital interested in building low-income apts unless the Section 8 program is dramatically expanded. Even if City permit fees were waived, the numbers wouldn't pencil out.
If young families can't afford to live here (in the way they wish to) in the future, they won't. It's as simple as that. Not every region in the country is for everyone.
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