[barnaby33]

Do I have to be a “saving bond trader” to think, or just to comment?

My guess based on copious amounts of reading is that the cost of debt is bottoming out right now. the FFR will go to zero and that still won’t stimulate things.

Congress will try one more major round of printing, ahem I mean inflating, to which the bond market will react very very negatively and that will be that. A negative reaction means that rates on treasuries will go up.

If in the very short term, say the next six months we have a trigger which sets off an extreme down movement in the stock market, you’ll see a lot of money flee to bonds, which will temporarily push down rates, but that won’t last if the treasury starts up the presses. Underlying the whole thesis is the idea that our govt is so borrowing dependent it will do nothing that negatively impacts its ability to borrow cheaply.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Do I have to be a “saving bond trader” to think, or just to comment?

My guess based on copious amounts of reading is that the cost of debt is bottoming out right now. the FFR will go to zero and that still won’t stimulate things.

Congress will try one more major round of printing, ahem I mean inflating, to which the bond market will react very very negatively and that will be that. A negative reaction means that rates on treasuries will go up.

If in the very short term, say the next six months we have a trigger which sets off an extreme down movement in the stock market, you’ll see a lot of money flee to bonds, which will temporarily push down rates, but that won’t last if the treasury starts up the presses. Underlying the whole thesis is the idea that our govt is so borrowing dependent it will do nothing that negatively impacts its ability to borrow cheaply.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Do I have to be a “saving bond trader” to think, or just to comment?

My guess based on copious amounts of reading is that the cost of debt is bottoming out right now. the FFR will go to zero and that still won’t stimulate things.

Congress will try one more major round of printing, ahem I mean inflating, to which the bond market will react very very negatively and that will be that. A negative reaction means that rates on treasuries will go up.

If in the very short term, say the next six months we have a trigger which sets off an extreme down movement in the stock market, you’ll see a lot of money flee to bonds, which will temporarily push down rates, but that won’t last if the treasury starts up the presses. Underlying the whole thesis is the idea that our govt is so borrowing dependent it will do nothing that negatively impacts its ability to borrow cheaply.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Why not take out an equity line against the home and use the equity line to payoff a potion of the first

Two good reasons:
HELOCs are recourse.
HELOCs are callable.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Why not take out an equity line against the home and use the equity line to payoff a potion of the first

Two good reasons:
HELOCs are recourse.
HELOCs are callable.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Why not take out an equity line against the home and use the equity line to payoff a potion of the first

Two good reasons:
HELOCs are recourse.
HELOCs are callable.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Why not take out an equity line against the home and use the equity line to payoff a potion of the first

Two good reasons:
HELOCs are recourse.
HELOCs are callable.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Why not take out an equity line against the home and use the equity line to payoff a potion of the first

Two good reasons:
HELOCs are recourse.
HELOCs are callable.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Fixed rate mortgages probably aren’t going to get much lower. Especially as congress plays the stimulus game. 30 year fixed mortgages are somewhat loosely tied to the 10 year treasury bond. As congress tries to play the bailout game the bond market will raise rates to compensate for the freshly printed doleros. Hence it is more than likely, though not guaranteed, that Mortgage rates are going up.

HLS correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that refinancing from one first mortgage into another causes the borrower to lose their non-recourse status. For this person it doesn’t sound like a huge deal, I just wanted confirmation.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Fixed rate mortgages probably aren’t going to get much lower. Especially as congress plays the stimulus game. 30 year fixed mortgages are somewhat loosely tied to the 10 year treasury bond. As congress tries to play the bailout game the bond market will raise rates to compensate for the freshly printed doleros. Hence it is more than likely, though not guaranteed, that Mortgage rates are going up.

HLS correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that refinancing from one first mortgage into another causes the borrower to lose their non-recourse status. For this person it doesn’t sound like a huge deal, I just wanted confirmation.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Fixed rate mortgages probably aren’t going to get much lower. Especially as congress plays the stimulus game. 30 year fixed mortgages are somewhat loosely tied to the 10 year treasury bond. As congress tries to play the bailout game the bond market will raise rates to compensate for the freshly printed doleros. Hence it is more than likely, though not guaranteed, that Mortgage rates are going up.

HLS correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that refinancing from one first mortgage into another causes the borrower to lose their non-recourse status. For this person it doesn’t sound like a huge deal, I just wanted confirmation.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Fixed rate mortgages probably aren’t going to get much lower. Especially as congress plays the stimulus game. 30 year fixed mortgages are somewhat loosely tied to the 10 year treasury bond. As congress tries to play the bailout game the bond market will raise rates to compensate for the freshly printed doleros. Hence it is more than likely, though not guaranteed, that Mortgage rates are going up.

HLS correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that refinancing from one first mortgage into another causes the borrower to lose their non-recourse status. For this person it doesn’t sound like a huge deal, I just wanted confirmation.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Fixed rate mortgages probably aren’t going to get much lower. Especially as congress plays the stimulus game. 30 year fixed mortgages are somewhat loosely tied to the 10 year treasury bond. As congress tries to play the bailout game the bond market will raise rates to compensate for the freshly printed doleros. Hence it is more than likely, though not guaranteed, that Mortgage rates are going up.

HLS correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that refinancing from one first mortgage into another causes the borrower to lose their non-recourse status. For this person it doesn’t sound like a huge deal, I just wanted confirmation.

Josh

[barnaby33]

The same people that didn’t have 20% down and verifiable assets/income before, still don’t. Raising the caps was pointless. Not to mention that the majority of mortgages, except in super frothy areas, were for less than 400k. Thats because you actually have to qualify for them, based on income.

Josh

[barnaby33]

The same people that didn’t have 20% down and verifiable assets/income before, still don’t. Raising the caps was pointless. Not to mention that the majority of mortgages, except in super frothy areas, were for less than 400k. Thats because you actually have to qualify for them, based on income.

Josh

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