[barnaby33]

Get a room you two.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Kind of hard to imagine we aren’t in depression already. 25 million people lost their jobs in the last 4 weeks. That’s just the number of folks who qualify for the insurance programs. There are more than likely equal numbers or more who are contractors or otherwise fall through the cracks.

I didn’t ask the question or make the initial post for myself, it was a category question, though Coronita did offer several helpful ripostes once he got done with his moralizing.

Sour grapes, fuck yes! There are a few people still on this blog who were here throughout the bubble (myself included) and it’s implosion. People who spent years preparing and not being dipshits, only to watch the Fed steal from them at the point of an Excel spreadsheet. People who thought we had a body of law to deal with fraud only to find out it’s only fraud when it’s not the wealthy doing it. The only person who went to jail was Martha Stewart. If you’re not angry, you just aren’t paying attention.

This bubble, much like the last is nothing more than fancy math to cover inter generational warfare. I’m Gen X and I literally weep for what the Boomers have done to the Millenials and done with a straight face.

All that having been said, we’re being dealt a certain hand of cards and I asked, what can I do to maximize my security given the current circumstances. Save your morality plays for those who haven’t already seen what those in power will do to preserve their place.

Josh

[barnaby33]

The price went wildly negative today, $-37 at one point. The problem is it’s for the “front month” contract. You have to show up in Cushing Oklahoma to claim it. You’ll have the same problem as everyone else though, where are you going to store it? That’s what drove the price negative in the first place.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Man you can cut and paste like a motherfucker!

I believe Marx actually said that!
Josh

[barnaby33]

A lower rate won’t buy most of us much. 3 months of cash cushion might. Lets take Coronita’s argument for a test drive. Without giving details I’ll just say, my mortgage rate isn’t going to go much lower and certainly not enough to justify a refi. My family income is down quite a bit, though as of right now I’m certainly not looking over the abyss. I do have savings, I’m not a retard. However those savings are invested, nobody just keeps their money in a mattress not earning interest, the Fed has made sure of that.

So rubber, meet road. I apply for forbearance and miracle of miracles I’m granted it. I get 3 months to save up money I would have spent on my house payment. Sure in 3 months I’ll have to pay it, but 3 months is a long time in Corona-ville. I’ll have thousands more dollars of dry powder when I have to make a decision. Do I pay the money back or hold onto it and try whatever comes next.

What comes next you might add? I don’t actually know, but I suspect. If you were paying attention last time around the Fed played kick the can by allowing the banks to FLAT OUT LIE about their accounting. It also gave them massive cash infusions at below market rates. No perp walks, no cram downs, nothing. This time around the pressure is already mounting to make the relief more consumer oriented. I could absolutely see the govt saying, ok you’re arrears, we’ll buy down a bit of your mortgage or re-finance you at even lower more ludicrous interest to keep you paying something. It would allow the Fed to buy even more paper and not punish any of the people who need a giant financial ass kicking.

So in my fantasy world I’d get 3 months deferral as an intro to a refinance. Now if I were low on equity that is absolutely a bet I’d take. Especially if I were a student of real estate recessions and knew that bottoms were years away.

So why wouldn’t I take the forbearance? If there is zero or low cost it seems like nothing but upside. I mean seriously if you are arguing moral hazard you simply have not paid attention to the entire last decade. Every single entity that was on the Fed bailout tit has become larger and more systemically important at your/my/our expense. You aren’t going to fix that with elections, so the best you can do as a moral human is role with it and try not to drown in what’s coming.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Obviously asking for forbearance is kicking the can down the road, but that is pretty much all our society does anymore.

Wall St and the banks aren’t the cause of this crisis, they’re the cause of the LAST crisis from which we never emerged.

I’m asking the question I did, because I want to stimulate thought about how each and every one of us is going to get through this whole. There is a whole lot more financial pain coming, we’ve only just begun the process of getting over this virus and our govt has just printed 2 Trillion dollars.

At least this time, some of it is going to the man on the street (or he’ll soon be living there.)

Josh

[barnaby33]

While you are at it, eat half of that rotisserie chicken you bought at costco, and then return it saying it tastes bad to get your $4.99 back.

Or buy a plant from home depot, plant it, and then before the 1 year mark, if you don’t like it, dig it back up and take it back to home depot and say it didn’t grow well to get your $20 of so back.

I did both of those just last week!

Leaving aside your point about ethical dilemma, is there a reason not to do it? So far you’ve mentioned the hassle, that is at least real. However if you’re at risk of losing your job in the foreseeable future (as most of us are), then delaying the payment would seem to be a no brainer even if it does cause you to have to make a big decision in 3 months; namely pay it all back, or claim you can’t.

Other options, like getting a HELOC titled now, if possible also seem good. I’m really just trying to illuminate the contours of how to navigate the economic reality of now.

I’ve already lived through one massive episode of the govt fucking me with my own money. I really don’t want to do that again and so maximizing my financial preparedness is a valid process.

[barnaby33]

In my case, my income has declined rather precipitously recently due to my wife being laid off and all of our guests cancelling. However I wasn’t asking just for myself.

You use the words “ethical dilemma” as if they had some special meaning in our world anymore. Isn’t an “ethical dilemma,” an 1/4 modifier or something?

The universe most definitely doesn’t bite most of the ethically challenged in the rear. To my knowledge the only person punished during the financial crisis was Martha Stewart.
Josh

[barnaby33]

but the offspring of the righteous will be delivered.

Yes but will it happen in 2 days or less?

[barnaby33]

Efficient in the sense that stock price reflects all information knowable

Ahem, no. It is more efficient for those with first access to information. Its a big club and you ain’t in it!
Josh

[barnaby33]

Yes, but for whom?
Josh

[barnaby33]

Hug it out you two. Hug it out.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Here’s hoping — the world’s overpopulated — ZPG/NPG should be the goal, not a concern.

I too have never understood how a declining population is a bad thing in current context. It is blindingly obvious that the quantity and quality of our resource base is declining. In order to maintain a high standard of living population needs to decline. Its as if most people can, but choose not to connect the dots because then they couldn’t have free ham sandwiches!
Josh

[barnaby33]

It’s a lot cheaper for those businesses to expand in states like CO, TX, or FL rather than SD.

Is it? Seems like it gets tried every decade or so but the businesses keep returning to SoCal/NorCal because that’s where the quality employees want to be.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Thanks Hobie. So it’s not such a great deal. I mean I love the international travel part, but that’s 1 month a year on average. Verizon is both expensive and very limiting for any international calling. My wife uses Google voice to call her family in Peru. It turns out however there is no free ham sandwich!
Josh

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