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Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantJustdoit: I would correct that to read that real estate can be great as speculation (no more than 10% of your available funds within a diversified portfolio).
Adjusted for inflation over the long-term, real estate does not hold up against other asset classes. That’s what makes this present situation (real estate boom to bust) so amazing: So many people bought into the myth of real estate “investment” properties as the path to wealth and success.
ParticipantSpam or troll bait.
For my real estate investing advice, I look to Nouveau Riche University and Robert Kiyosaki. I like proven winners and true prognosticators.
Along the lines of the $649k Del Cerro house in another thread, it appears that the market still hasn’t shed all of the lunatics.
ParticipantSD Realtor: My dad was in the Marines during WWII and saw action on Okinawa in 1945. He never talked about his experiences there, but my mom said he had some truly bad nightmares for many years.
The point I would make is this: The US sustained approximately 400,000 dead during the war. The Soviet Union lost nearly 28 million. As bad as our casualties were during some of the battles, the fighting on the Eastern Front between Germany and the Russians, and the fighting in the Pacific between the Chinese and Japanese forces, dwarfs our losses by several orders of magnitude.
That generation of Americans was completely focused on victory, and at all costs. My dad was on a troopship headed to Japan for the final invasion when they dropped the bomb on Hiroshima. The US was prepared for nearly a million American casualties during the invasion of the Japanese home islands, but the atomic bombs changed all that. We (as a generation) definitely lack the fortitude that they had. With the exception of those brave young men and women that are in the military now, that is.
September 23, 2007 at 6:09 PM in reply to: Off topic – The Chargers are NOT who we thought they were #85637ParticipantNot to pile on, but the decision to fire Schottenheimer is going to come back and haunt them big time. The loss of Cam Cameron was a big one, too.
The most dangerous time in the NFL right now is the NE Patriots. Not only possible to see them go undefeated, but I really believe that they are only going to get better as their talent pool gels and Brady gets more comfy with his new weapons.
And, trust me, as a Raiders fan, that last bit ain’t easy to say.
ParticipantTemeculaguy: While I might be a Raider fan, I would also donate to the Cowher fund, and for no other reason than I would love to see a coach of his caliber out in California and leading a talent heavy team like the Chargers.
While I have a lot of respect for Norv Turner as an Offensive Coordinator, the fact of the matter is that he is in over his head as a Head Coach. His complete befuddlement during the Patriots game was apparent, as is his inability to get LT going. If Tomlinson has a sub-par season, Rivers is going to get annihilated.
ParticipantSDR: Yeah, I love the “Polish Cannon”. You know we acquired him to be a difference maker in close games. And, boy, has that ever proven to be true! Oy vey.
As many faults as Schottenheimer had, I think Norv Turner was (and is) a bad choice. He is a very capable Offensive Coordinator. As a head coach, however…
I think an even bigger loss was Cam Cameron. The offensive play calling was just that: Offensive.
If the Chargers are going to compete with the Colts and the Patriots, their level of competitive zeal better come up a couple of orders of magnitude.
My season is pretty well set: I am a Notre Dame fan in college ball, and a Raiders fan. You might not be the only one in for a long season.
ParticipantSDR: Taking the cheating accusation off the table for just a second, let’s remember that Belichick is one of the best prepared coaches in the NFL.
Being a lifelong Raiders fan, I loathe the Patsies, but would be the first to admit that they are an excellent team. Add in Welker and Moss, and you have the elements to go deep into the playoffs.
As far as Turner goes: When I saw that Spanos had hired him, I had to laugh. My God, is there some conspiracy at Chargers Central to avoid winning the Superbowl? Let’s not even talk about the decision to let Boss Ross go in favor of keeping Bobby Beathard. Yeah, that Bobby Beathard. The guy who fell in love with Ryan Leaf.
The Chargers are a hugely talented team. The Patriots are a hugely talented organization. That difference will become more and more apparent as the season wears on.
ParticipantDesmond: It ain’t the 8 year olds I have to contend with, it is the moms!
CardiffBaseball: Which team did you play? And, yeah, the heat was unbelievable. Course, I say that as I pen an email from 106 degree Fallbrook today. Shouldn’t bag too hard on Temecula.
A sports park in Carlsbad would be very cool. That or Escondido is where they ought to have the weigh-ins as well, rather than Chaparral HS in Temecula. Same thing there (at Chaparral): You have approx 5,000+ kids run through there on a Saturday, with absolutely unbelievable heat. God forbid we do it somewhere on the coast.
Cool about your tweeners making weight, though. Heat has to be good for something, right?
Participanttemeculaguy: I LOVE that sports park! It is absolutely gorgeous. You should see the fields in Fallbrook. Oy vey.
Only drawback of artificial surface fields is that they reflect heat like crazy. It was 109 on Saturday when we played and was probably a good 20 degrees hotter on the field due to the heat reflection.
I had two players go out due to heatstroke, and we were fighting a losing battle with dehydration and overheating.
Those fields were damn nice, though.
What’s up with Wolf Creek, by the way? All of those new houses sitting empty and they appear to be building even more. Is that right?
ParticipantSDR: Had a couple of conversations in Temecula yesterday during our Pop Warner game at Great Oaks HS (across from Pechanga). Bunch of different teams represented, some from all the way down in Poway.
The varying attitudes were pretty amazing. In discussing real estate with the Poway folks, the prevailing mentality is that while prices might fall a little, the market will come back.
The folks from Murrieta and Temecula, on the other hand, were shell shocked. Talked to a Murrieta coach who has been trying to unload his house due to an impending job transfer. His small neighborhood has no less than four houses that are now bank owned and three more heading into REO. One of his neighbors literally packed up the whole family and moved out over a weekend. This was a month ago, and the house is sitting vacant, with an overgrown and dying lawn and the pool stagnant. This guy said he had purchased his house back in 1999, so he had some equity to give, but he said the three offers he got were all some 20 to 30 percent below his lowest asking price, which is already down some $30k from his original list price. The look on this guy’s face was complete bewilderment.
Great Oaks HS sits next to the Wolf Creek development on Pechanga Parkway, which was a complete ghost town for the four and a half hours I was there.
August 27, 2007 at 10:03 AM in reply to: “short of Charlie Manson moving in — it can’t be any worse,” #81531ParticipantHLS: This entire housing boom was predicated on the buyer’s inability to do even basic math.
Who in their right mind would buy into a 100% LTV 2/28 loan for a home that was substantially overvalued by any meaningful economic set of standards?
I hear your argument, but it is flawed in one significant way: It contains logic.
Add in the emotional component to home ownership and you have people like this; people who will hold on till the bitter end, and will believe any piece of good news the MSM or NAR or MBA feeds them. But, at some point, it all comes apart. And that is when things are gonna get real ugly.
August 27, 2007 at 10:03 AM in reply to: “short of Charlie Manson moving in — it can’t be any worse,” #81663ParticipantHLS: This entire housing boom was predicated on the buyer’s inability to do even basic math.
Who in their right mind would buy into a 100% LTV 2/28 loan for a home that was substantially overvalued by any meaningful economic set of standards?
I hear your argument, but it is flawed in one significant way: It contains logic.
Add in the emotional component to home ownership and you have people like this; people who will hold on till the bitter end, and will believe any piece of good news the MSM or NAR or MBA feeds them. But, at some point, it all comes apart. And that is when things are gonna get real ugly.
August 27, 2007 at 10:03 AM in reply to: “short of Charlie Manson moving in — it can’t be any worse,” #81682ParticipantHLS: This entire housing boom was predicated on the buyer’s inability to do even basic math.
Who in their right mind would buy into a 100% LTV 2/28 loan for a home that was substantially overvalued by any meaningful economic set of standards?
I hear your argument, but it is flawed in one significant way: It contains logic.
Add in the emotional component to home ownership and you have people like this; people who will hold on till the bitter end, and will believe any piece of good news the MSM or NAR or MBA feeds them. But, at some point, it all comes apart. And that is when things are gonna get real ugly.
Participanttemeculaguy: Swing Inn has really good breakfasts. That’s absolutely apropos of nothing, but Bob’s is behind there and…
Syes: I would make a point of visiting the various REO websites and staying abreast of both inventory and prices in the Temecula and Murrieta areas. I have seen some nice homes that have gone back to the bank, and, at some point, reality is going to sink in for the banks and lending institutions that they have to divest themselves of these properties. All due respect to D.R. Horton, but I think the “squeal” factor is going to be a lot higher for Countrywide Financial, Wells Fargo, etc.
When you look at Wells Fargo’s Premiere Asset Services website (their REO website), California foreclosures alone eat up 182 pages at 10 properties per page. I stopped counting at 300 pages on Countrywide’s REO website. There are deals out there, be patient and watchful.
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