How bout 25% off in Stonebridge

[SD Realtor]

Friday night treat for the bears. 12728 Westly Lane in Stonebridge. Purchased in 5/10/06 for 1.1M. Now listed for 859k…of course it is now owned by HSBC…Not a bad drop for less then 16 months.

[waiting hawk]

See what happens when you are looking in good areas? 25% aint sh!t to what I’m seeing in IE. All day long baby 🙂

[cashflow]

Where’s stonebridge at? Just curious…

[SD Realtor]

No doubt hawk! Also I have been saying for months that Stonebridge was having lots of foreclosures. Of course 25% is nothing compared to IE. For those who don’t know Stonebridge is the development on the far east end of Scripps that has been selling for the past 2 years now.

SD Realtor

[temeculaguy]

If the Pain Train theory has any legs, this will be the first of many but this one and the others that go big and go early will actually sell quickly. In six months there will be 20 of them languishing at 25% off. This is merely the recon unit for the pain train, train is a coming, but this isn’t it,…. yet. Scrips and other desirable areas will benefit from the pounding the banks have gotten in the I.E. and central cali in the last year. Waiting hawk will probably agree, last year many of the repos up here were priced higher than the resale and new stuff, it took them a while to figure it out an only now am I seeing them lead the downward trend. As the repos hit you, the bank’s REO guys have already learned some lessons, they will have their first 15 plays scripted when your game starts. Play #1, cut the market off at the knees, go 25% off and grab the bargain hunting pent up demand, if there’s one sale in that zip code, be it. Play #2, see play #1. Lather, rinse, repeat until you run out of sideliners at 25% or another repo goes 30%, then adjust accordingly. I swear I could totally unscrew any bank’s REO division in 5 days and get them a 10% stock bump and I am a complete idiot, then again I could probably lead the Chargers to more wins than Norv. If he blows the packer game I am calling A.J. and I am offering $100 to the Bill Cowher fund, SI’s Peter King thinks it will cost 8 million to get Cowher to coach again, I may be in for $200 if they lose by more than a field goal.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Temeculaguy: While I might be a Raider fan, I would also donate to the Cowher fund, and for no other reason than I would love to see a coach of his caliber out in California and leading a talent heavy team like the Chargers.

While I have a lot of respect for Norv Turner as an Offensive Coordinator, the fact of the matter is that he is in over his head as a Head Coach. His complete befuddlement during the Patriots game was apparent, as is his inability to get LT going. If Tomlinson has a sub-par season, Rivers is going to get annihilated.

[Bugs]

I think I like the pain train buzzword better than the butterfly effect. Catchy.

I see HSBCs name on a lot of the REO sales; it seems like they’re in competition with Duestche Bank to see which of them can unload more REOs. I know they weren’t the only lenders making bad loans so I’m a little surprised that they don’t already have more competition out in the market.

Anyways, Stonebridge is somewhat in the same boat as Bressi Ranch and La Costa Oaks and San Elijo Hills. These are new home subdivisions that predominantly sold between 2004-2006, there were a lot of flippers in the pre-construction phases of selling, and a large percentage of all buyers used ARMs to finance.

I reckon that in these areas it will be the new home developments that will crack first as a result of the outside competition, thereby cutting the older neghborhoods off at the knees. Seeing as how some of the Scripps locals don’t consider Stonebridge to be part of Scripps proper they’ll probably disregard what happens there. It’ll be awhile yet before these guys get to the point where they are forced to acknowledge that Scripps isn’t a protected haven from declines.

[JWM in SD]

The Pain Train is pulling into the station. Next stop, OC. All FBs and GFs on board. Final Stop: Foreclosure.

[temeculaguy]

OK Bugs, Pain Train it is. Allan, you are dead on with your analysis, my apologies for hijacking another thread with football.

Bugs, I am glad that you also noticed that certain banks are dumping while others are not, I thought I was taking crazy pills because I can almost see a pricing trend based on the bank. I have been trying to figure it out. One bank lists all of it’s stuff with one real estate company and everything is listed at what they repo’d it back for. Another has everything listed within a few thousand of it’s zestimate. Then I’ll see all of the heavy discounts all come from a single realtor and they are all from the same bank. I don’t know if it’s bad analysis of the market by the bank or the particular realtors are giving the banks different info. I have to think that a bank in Europe has to rely on whoever they have representing them locally. I saw a house in the MLS and the tag line said “priced lower than the repos,” and they were. Of course I took it upon myself to e-mail the repo’s realtor and ask them why a dialed in model match is cheaper than their brown lawner, funny, they never responded and then two days later they dropped their price 10k but are still 40k over the resales and a 100k over new from the builder. So much for “must sell” inventory.

[SD Realtor]

Stonebridge falls into the category of higher probability of higher foreclosures. Scripps is one of several communities that has mixed components. IMO Stonebridge has the highest probability of failure in Scripps because it is the newest and most overpriced in 2004-2006. Similarly the properties that sit on top of 15 are about 4-6 years older.. The next step down are the homes west of Stonebridge but north of Spring Canyon… What is in common here? A newer home which translates to a lower equity stake. To me this sort of housing demographic is what will be the primary component of foreclosure in the more desireable areas. Whether it is Scripps, Sabre Springs,`Carmel Valley, 4S…

SD Realtor

[ocrenter]

SD Realtor, yup, stonebridge is so toast. did you ever get a chance to see the master plan map? one of the developments Calabria is only on phase 3 of a planned 12-15 phases. The 4000-5000 sqft homes sold for as much as 1.8 million in phase 1, recently I have seen 5000 sqft models going for $1 million flat on ziprealty.

[NotCranky]

See what happens when you are looking in good areas? 25% aint sh!t to what I’m seeing in IE. All day long baby 🙂

A friend of mine just bid 185K on house that was around 500k at peak in Indio. The renter across the street wants a lease because his house is going back to the bank. The thing is, my friend half hopes he doesn’t get it because he is looking at a duplex in bakersfield that is equally distressed. I am not up on Indio so I don’t know what the possibilities are.

[SD Realtor]

OCR yep I have seen it… I have no idea wtf the developers are going to do…

SD Realtor

[ocrenter]

SDR, this is one of the developments out there that will have a real possibility of builders changing plans mid-stream and down size to 2500 sqft homes on smaller lots to push sales. (if the zoning allow for it)

[4runner]

Re: some banks dumping

Bugs, TMC: Is there any correlation between which banks are dumping and the size of their REO holdings?

[Author]

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