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Some freeways through LA are supposed to be partially closed between Christmas and the end of the year.

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http://www.bigbearweather.com/
It does not look like you will be needing chains, but there will be ice on the road. Take 38. 330/18 is 10-15 minutes shorter (assuming no traffic), but 38 is easier on the driver. And if the traffic sucks (and it most likely will) 330/18 can easily add 1h+.

I go several times/year. I usually leave before 6am and I don’t think I ever managed to get there in two hours or less (even with no traffic).

If your plan is to hit the slopes you will want to be there when the resorts open.

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Ah, I was looking at the houses east of Camino Del Sur only.

These are nice, but they are still $200-300K and $300-400/month in fees more expensive than 4S houses or surrounded more than comparable 4S houses.

This one sold for $880K, nice location, decent house, MR+HOA $600-700/month less than what Santaluz fees are: http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/Undisclosed-address-92127/home/6454502

Or this one that went for $750K
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/16345-Alipaz-Ct-92127/home/6454595

The best houses in 4S might cost you 10-20% less than the worst one you listed. I wish that was the case, but I don’t think another two or three years worth of savings is the accurate estimate of the difference between 4S and Santaluz.

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Earlyretirement, can you post a listing in Santaluz that you are talking about? I see only three under $1MM (one at $999K). The most affordable one is 2,327sf at $352/sf with $450/month HOA (Google Maps shows 4S-sized backyard). Earlier today someone posted about a $170/sf short sale in 4S with $85/month HOA. I see few 3,500-4,000sf houses for around $800K on lots similar in size to the Santaluz one. I don’t see the listing in your neighborhood that is really comparable in affordability to 4S.

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Provident advertises 3.875% with 1.125% closing cost credit. If your balance is in high $300K’s the credit should cover their closing cost and some.

If you don’t want to shop around check if 4% would come with a credit high enough to cover the closing cost.

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[quote=AN][quote=captcha]
Single vs. dual matters because part of the ‘comfortable’ is psychological. I am more comfortable spending $X/month if I know that I can easily generate another $50K/year income stream.

I used 25% because that’s what it takes to get the best rate. Your tax deduction is rather conservative. Assuming $600 in principal payment and $100 insurance (and skipping the MR deductible-or-not discussion) the deduction should be ~25-30%, i.e. ~$500-600/month.

Looking around, most 4S families are either families of retired/active military officers or immigrant engineers working at major SD companies. Usually with limited medical bills (decent insurance) and no student loans (foreign educated, government paid, etc).

I am not saying what you are getting in 4S Ranch is worth the money, just that fiscally-responsible single-income $125K/year family can rather comfortable afford $500K place.[/quote]
Psychological is different for different people. Some might find it more comforting that both parents are working and it’s easier to find a job when you were recently employed vs being out of the work force for so long.
[/quote]
Indeed. But between being single-income by choice and dual-income by necessity which one would you pick? And weren’t you the one who brought up the 4% unemployment rate among people with 4-year college degree? So, is it hard or not to get a job if you are well educated?

[quote=AN]How many people actually put down 25%? I don’t know the statistics, but I would assume it’s not that many. Especially people in the $400-600k range. I compute my tax deduction based on (interest + tax – standard deduction) * 25% tax bracket. You forgot the standard deduction in your calculation.
[/quote]
I don’t know how many put 25% down. JimTheRealtor publishes numbers like that for few costal areas. Back in June 13% of sales were with less than 20% down and 44% put 30% or more.
Standard deduction is nice. But the deductible state tax is comparable and you forgot about it.

[quote=AN]
Even with decent insurance where you don’t have to pay for any of the premium, you still have out of pocket stuff, dental stuff, vision stuff. They add a little or a lot, depend on how much you use/need.
[/quote]

Majority of 4S people appear to be in their 30’s and 40’s. A family of four… I don’t know, should not be more than $1K/year.

[quote=AN]
How many people don’t have student loans? Why am I hearing all the talk about student loans being a huge problem, yet you don’t think anyone in 4S have student loans?
[/quote]

I did not say anyone. Get-rich-quick people that got flushed probably did have those. Or maybe not since they likely were not college educated. Looking at my cul-de-sac, there are two retired military officers, two active duty military officers, 7-8 engineering immigrants mostly in mid-level managerial positions. That’s what I see when I look around.

[quote=AN]
I didn’t even talk about saving for rainy day yet, just retirement. Again, lets assume you’re right and those who live in 4S spend $0 on medical and student loan, how much does a family spend a month? You have $2200 to play with. How much would be a good rainy day saving? To me, comfortable would be saving $1k-2k/month for rainy day, on top of maxing out 401k and IRA. That would leave this theoretical family $200-1200 to spend on everything else.
[/quote]
Your numbers are off. My first-hand experience says that a family of four can carry $400K mortgage, put $20K in 401k+IRA, travel to Europe, make several ski trips to Big Bear, own two cars, have two kids enrolled in 7 year-round activities combined, dine out at least twice/month, see a dentist twice/year, pay an extra payment or two on the mortgage, and still easily save $1K/month on $125K/year.

[quote=AN]
I don’t consider that comfortable.
[/quote]
That’s OK. Some people are fiscally conservative and some are even more fiscally conservative.

[quote=AN]
All of this is talking about a $500k house too, how about a $600k house? If you recall, ocrenter was saying $400-600k and I said it should be more like $300-500k. Ideally, it would be $300-500k w/out HOA&MR.[/quote]

The difference between $400K and $500K today is what, maybe $400/month after taxes? I know that is a lot of money for some people, but honestly, on $125K/year and the aforementioned second income stream sitting idle $400/month is nothing. Cable + phone bill or the difference between Acura and Honda.

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You should be able to get to Boys and Girls Club walking around the western edge of the swampy area in less than 10 minutes, assuming the central can be used (I believe it can).

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[quote=AN][quote=captcha]There is a difference between two income family making $125K combined and one-income family with college-educated stay-at-home-by-choice parent making the same amount of money and the latter is more common than the former in 4S Ranch.

PITI on $500K with 25% down in 4S is ~$2600-$2800. With tax deductions we are talking $2-$2.2K month. It would be nicer if it was $1,500, but $2,200 on one salary of $10K/month is doable without much stretching.[/quote]
It doesn’t matter if it’s dual income $125k HHI or single income $125k HHI. What matter, is if it’s before or after tax. $125k before tax, even with single income is still not enough to comfortable afford $600k (w/out HOA/MR), much less $600k in areas like 4S/SEH where HOA+MR comes out to be another ~$400.

Why did you use 25% vs 20%? Does that help your numbers? Using conventional 20%, $400k loan on a $500k house with today’s rate (assuming you have great credit), the P+I is $1900. Tax should be about $450 + ~$400 for HOA+MR + ~$100 for insurance, and you’re looking at $2850/month. Tax deduction is ~$330/month. So, we’re looking at ~$2500/month after tax deduction. $125k before tax would be about $100k after tax. That’s $8300/month. So, we’re looking about $5800/month after tax to spend on other things besides your shelter. How much do you think a typical family spend on eating, gas, student loans, car loan, etc? Now, about medical expenses? Then, how about retirement? If you’re prudent and max out your 401k AND IRA (assuming Roth for both spouses), that would come out to $3600/month. So, just after retirement, you only have $2200/month to spend on eating, gas, student loans, car loans, entertainment, after school activities, travel, medical expenses. I’m ONLY using a $500k house example too. Imagine how much tighter it’ll be if I use a $600k house example.[/quote]

Single vs. dual matters because part of the ‘comfortable’ is psychological. I am more comfortable spending $X/month if I know that I can easily generate another $50K/year income stream.

I used 25% because that’s what it takes to get the best rate. Your tax deduction is rather conservative. Assuming $600 in principal payment and $100 insurance (and skipping the MR deductible-or-not discussion) the deduction should be ~25-30%, i.e. ~$500-600/month.

Looking around, most 4S families are either families of retired/active military officers or immigrant engineers working at major SD companies. Usually with limited medical bills (decent insurance) and no student loans (foreign educated, government paid, etc).

I am not saying what you are getting in 4S Ranch is worth the money, just that fiscally-responsible single-income $125K/year family can rather comfortable afford $500K place.

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[quote=CA renter]It’s too simplistic to say a “large” or “small” government is the problem or solution. What’s needed is an accountable, transparent government that is open and accessible to ALL citizens, equally.[/quote]

I agree. I would also add consistent. Arbitrary implementation of rules is the cornerstone of police state and corruption. If you leave up to a person to decide if a rule needs to be enforced eventually you’ll run into one that will abuse the power. Which is why I hate speed limits.

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[quote=AN][quote=ocrenter]4S and SEH is perfect for middle class families that put good schools on top of their list. $400-$600K range is what 4S/SEH homes should be at. Essentially, we are looking at folks that make around combined $125k range.

If you are in brackets over that, it isn’t your cup of tea.

The problem of course is the bubble pushed the prices beyond the $600k barrier even though the houses remained in that $400-$600k quality. Especially the north side where the houses are even more tightly packed in as the builders hurried to jam in homes as the bubble was ready to pop.[/quote]
There’s no way a HHI of $125k could comfortable afford $400-600k with the HOA & MR that those areas have. Now, if you remove the HOA & MR, then I would agree with you. With HOA and MR at 4S, Del Sur, & SEH level, I would say the price should be more around $300-500k for a HH with HHI of $125k to comfortably afford.[/quote]

There is a difference between two income family making $125K combined and one-income family with college-educated stay-at-home-by-choice parent making the same amount of money and the latter is more common than the former in 4S Ranch.

PITI on $500K with 25% down in 4S is ~$2600-$2800. With tax deductions we are talking $2-$2.2K month. It would be nicer if it was $1,500, but $2,200 on one salary of $10K/month is doable without much stretching.

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But in Ivy Gate you are next door neighbor with Matt (son of Mitt) Romney and your kid could be in the classroom with Mitt’s grandchildren. Instant celebrity.

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[quote=CA renter]
You can have corruption under a dictatorship (as small as government can be, no?), too.[/quote]
Not very good example. Dictatorships generally require a lot of control, which usually requires large government.

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[quote=4826monongahela]I get the line of reasoning that we should encourage activity (programs to lose weight, stop smoking, etc) that imposes lower healthcare costs for society.

But one thing I don’t get is whether or not smokers & fat-asses really do incur greater overall costs? Sure, they die sooner and after prolonged medical treatment. But everyone dies of something sooner or later. I honestly wonder if the total healthcare tally for these people really is greater than someone who doesn’t smoke/obese and lives much longer and dies of something else, which may also include protracted healthcare costs. Additionally, if they die young, then we as a society don’t carry their retirement costs as long.

I don’t have an opinion on this, I’ve just never seen numbers showing one group actually is more costly than another, “tout compte fait”. Does anyone know?[/quote]

Non-smokers and slender people are more likely to have their terminal cost covered by Medicare at no cost for the insurance companies?

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[quote=AN]Mac is not as stable like Linux and doesn’t have all the UI nicety like Windows (expanding windows from any edge, double click of the top bar to maximize, maximize = maximize, drag windows to the left edge of the monitor span the window to 1/2 of the screen, etc., I can go on but the list is way too long), so, I feel like it’s the worse out of the 3.[/quote]

Mac touchpad is major productivity booster and with Lion you can grab any edge to resize a window (and with some tricks if you hold option or ctrl simultaneously, but no win+left/right arrow for snap-to-edge like on Win7). What I don’t like are the tools. Having to use Xcode 3.xx after VS2008 was frustrating experience.

+1 for dropbox and for turning down 100M+ offer from Steve Jobs.

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Drugs?

Combined with train watching. Preferably in Edinburgh.

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