Home › Forums › Closed Forums › Properties or Areas › 4S Ranch feels like Curry Campground to me. Anyone else?
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earlyretirement.
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November 30, 2011 at 12:02 PM #733616November 30, 2011 at 12:03 PM #733617
an
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November 30, 2011 at 12:06 PM #733618bearishgurl
Participant[quote=ocrenter]4S and SEH is perfect for middle class families that put good schools on top of their list. $400-$600K range is what 4S/SEH homes should be at. Essentially, we are looking at folks that make around combined $125k range.
If you are in brackets over that, it isn’t your cup of tea.
The problem of course is the bubble pushed the prices beyond the $600k barrier even though the houses remained in that $400-$600k quality. Especially the north side where the houses are even more tightly packed in as the builders hurried to jam in homes as the bubble was ready to pop.[/quote]
ocrenter, is $400-$600K currently what the average listing price range is in 4S and SEH? And if a typical lot in this price range is only, say, 3800 sf, what size is the house, can a mid-size car fit in the driveway w/o hanging over the sidewalk and what would be its typical list price of today?
November 30, 2011 at 12:19 PM #733619UCGal
Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=ocrenter]4S and SEH is perfect for middle class families that put good schools on top of their list. $400-$600K range is what 4S/SEH homes should be at. Essentially, we are looking at folks that make around combined $125k range.
If you are in brackets over that, it isn’t your cup of tea.
The problem of course is the bubble pushed the prices beyond the $600k barrier even though the houses remained in that $400-$600k quality. Especially the north side where the houses are even more tightly packed in as the builders hurried to jam in homes as the bubble was ready to pop.[/quote]
ocrenter, is $400-$600K currently what the average listing price range is in 4S and SEH? And if a typical lot in this price range is only, say, 3800 sf, what size is the house, can a mid-size car fit in the driveway w/o hanging over the sidewalk and what would be its typical list price of today?[/quote]
To answer your question BG, I bolded the answer in OC’s comment.The houses are NOT in that price range – they got pushed up by the bubble and didn’t return to what they should have.
November 30, 2011 at 12:57 PM #733627ocrenter
Participant[quote=UCGal]
The houses are NOT in that price range – they got pushed up by the bubble and didn’t return to what they should have.[/quote]
thank you UCGal
November 30, 2011 at 1:04 PM #733630all
Participant[quote=AN][quote=ocrenter]4S and SEH is perfect for middle class families that put good schools on top of their list. $400-$600K range is what 4S/SEH homes should be at. Essentially, we are looking at folks that make around combined $125k range.
If you are in brackets over that, it isn’t your cup of tea.
The problem of course is the bubble pushed the prices beyond the $600k barrier even though the houses remained in that $400-$600k quality. Especially the north side where the houses are even more tightly packed in as the builders hurried to jam in homes as the bubble was ready to pop.[/quote]
There’s no way a HHI of $125k could comfortable afford $400-600k with the HOA & MR that those areas have. Now, if you remove the HOA & MR, then I would agree with you. With HOA and MR at 4S, Del Sur, & SEH level, I would say the price should be more around $300-500k for a HH with HHI of $125k to comfortably afford.[/quote]There is a difference between two income family making $125K combined and one-income family with college-educated stay-at-home-by-choice parent making the same amount of money and the latter is more common than the former in 4S Ranch.
PITI on $500K with 25% down in 4S is ~$2600-$2800. With tax deductions we are talking $2-$2.2K month. It would be nicer if it was $1,500, but $2,200 on one salary of $10K/month is doable without much stretching.
November 30, 2011 at 1:08 PM #733631Participant[quote=AN][quote=ocrenter]4S and SEH is perfect for middle class families that put good schools on top of their list. $400-$600K range is what 4S/SEH homes should be at. Essentially, we are looking at folks that make around combined $125k range.
If you are in brackets over that, it isn’t your cup of tea.
The problem of course is the bubble pushed the prices beyond the $600k barrier even though the houses remained in that $400-$600k quality. Especially the north side where the houses are even more tightly packed in as the builders hurried to jam in homes as the bubble was ready to pop.[/quote]
There’s no way a HHI of $125k could comfortable afford $400-600k with the HOA & MR that those areas have. Now, if you remove the HOA & MR, then I would agree with you. With HOA and MR at 4S, Del Sur, & SEH level, I would say the price should be more around $300-500k for a HH with HHI of $125k to comfortably afford.[/quote]At $125k, you are averaging $10k per month. $500k house with 20% down at 4.5% mortgage rate you are looking at $2000 monthly mortgage. Add $700/month for property tax and MR/HOA, so that’ll be $2700/month. That’s less than 30% of income on housing.
And remember you do get 20% of that mortgage interest and property tax back on tax refund.
I would not lump del sur in with 4S/SEH, Del Sur MR and HOA is at least $300 more per month compared to 4S/SEH.
November 30, 2011 at 1:45 PM #733635Participant[quote=ocrenter]At $125k, you are averaging $10k per month. $500k house with 20% down at 4.5% mortgage rate you are looking at $2000 monthly mortgage. Add $700/month for property tax and MR/HOA, so that’ll be $2700/month. That’s less than 30% of income on housing.
And remember you do get 20% of that mortgage interest and property tax back on tax refund.
I would not lump del sur in with 4S/SEH, Del Sur MR and HOA is at least $300 more per month compared to 4S/SEH.[/quote]
Oh, you’re talking $125k after tax HHI. Then I totally agree with you. I thought you’re talking about before tax $125k HHI.Yes, Del Sur MR+HOA is ~$300/month more. $300/month equate to about $60k in price when broken down to monthly payment. So, my $300-500k for Del Sur would be ~$360-560k.
November 30, 2011 at 2:06 PM #733637Participant[quote=captcha]There is a difference between two income family making $125K combined and one-income family with college-educated stay-at-home-by-choice parent making the same amount of money and the latter is more common than the former in 4S Ranch.
PITI on $500K with 25% down in 4S is ~$2600-$2800. With tax deductions we are talking $2-$2.2K month. It would be nicer if it was $1,500, but $2,200 on one salary of $10K/month is doable without much stretching.[/quote]
It doesn’t matter if it’s dual income $125k HHI or single income $125k HHI. What matter, is if it’s before or after tax. $125k before tax, even with single income is still not enough to comfortable afford $600k (w/out HOA/MR), much less $600k in areas like 4S/SEH where HOA+MR comes out to be another ~$400.Why did you use 25% vs 20%? Does that help your numbers? Using conventional 20%, $400k loan on a $500k house with today’s rate (assuming you have great credit), the P+I is $1900. Tax should be about $450 + ~$400 for HOA+MR + ~$100 for insurance, and you’re looking at $2850/month. Tax deduction is ~$330/month. So, we’re looking at ~$2500/month after tax deduction. $125k before tax would be about $100k after tax. That’s $8300/month. So, we’re looking about $5800/month after tax to spend on other things besides your shelter. How much do you think a typical family spend on eating, gas, student loans, car loan, etc? Now, about medical expenses? Then, how about retirement? If you’re prudent and max out your 401k AND IRA (assuming Roth for both spouses), that would come out to $3600/month. So, just after retirement, you only have $2200/month to spend on eating, gas, student loans, car loans, entertainment, after school activities, travel, medical expenses. I’m ONLY using a $500k house example too. Imagine how much tighter it’ll be if I use a $600k house example.
November 30, 2011 at 2:41 PM #733641Participant[quote=AN][quote=captcha]There is a difference between two income family making $125K combined and one-income family with college-educated stay-at-home-by-choice parent making the same amount of money and the latter is more common than the former in 4S Ranch.
PITI on $500K with 25% down in 4S is ~$2600-$2800. With tax deductions we are talking $2-$2.2K month. It would be nicer if it was $1,500, but $2,200 on one salary of $10K/month is doable without much stretching.[/quote]
It doesn’t matter if it’s dual income $125k HHI or single income $125k HHI. What matter, is if it’s before or after tax. $125k before tax, even with single income is still not enough to comfortable afford $600k (w/out HOA/MR), much less $600k in areas like 4S/SEH where HOA+MR comes out to be another ~$400.Why did you use 25% vs 20%? Does that help your numbers? Using conventional 20%, $400k loan on a $500k house with today’s rate (assuming you have great credit), the P+I is $1900. Tax should be about $450 + ~$400 for HOA+MR + ~$100 for insurance, and you’re looking at $2850/month. Tax deduction is ~$330/month. So, we’re looking at ~$2500/month after tax deduction. $125k before tax would be about $100k after tax. That’s $8300/month. So, we’re looking about $5800/month after tax to spend on other things besides your shelter. How much do you think a typical family spend on eating, gas, student loans, car loan, etc? Now, about medical expenses? Then, how about retirement? If you’re prudent and max out your 401k AND IRA (assuming Roth for both spouses), that would come out to $3600/month. So, just after retirement, you only have $2200/month to spend on eating, gas, student loans, car loans, entertainment, after school activities, travel, medical expenses. I’m ONLY using a $500k house example too. Imagine how much tighter it’ll be if I use a $600k house example.[/quote]
Single vs. dual matters because part of the ‘comfortable’ is psychological. I am more comfortable spending $X/month if I know that I can easily generate another $50K/year income stream.
I used 25% because that’s what it takes to get the best rate. Your tax deduction is rather conservative. Assuming $600 in principal payment and $100 insurance (and skipping the MR deductible-or-not discussion) the deduction should be ~25-30%, i.e. ~$500-600/month.
Looking around, most 4S families are either families of retired/active military officers or immigrant engineers working at major SD companies. Usually with limited medical bills (decent insurance) and no student loans (foreign educated, government paid, etc).
I am not saying what you are getting in 4S Ranch is worth the money, just that fiscally-responsible single-income $125K/year family can rather comfortable afford $500K place.
November 30, 2011 at 3:55 PM #733653earlyretirement
Participant[quote=UCGal][quote=bearishgurl][quote=ocrenter]4S and SEH is perfect for middle class families that put good schools on top of their list. $400-$600K range is what 4S/SEH homes should be at. Essentially, we are looking at folks that make around combined $125k range.
If you are in brackets over that, it isn’t your cup of tea.
The problem of course is the bubble pushed the prices beyond the $600k barrier even though the houses remained in that $400-$600k quality. Especially the north side where the houses are even more tightly packed in as the builders hurried to jam in homes as the bubble was ready to pop.[/quote]
ocrenter, is $400-$600K currently what the average listing price range is in 4S and SEH? And if a typical lot in this price range is only, say, 3800 sf, what size is the house, can a mid-size car fit in the driveway w/o hanging over the sidewalk and what would be its typical list price of today?[/quote]
To answer your question BG, I bolded the answer in OC’s comment.The houses are NOT in that price range – they got pushed up by the bubble and didn’t return to what they should have.[/quote]
I agree that the houses SHOULD probably be in that price range but the problem is that they aren’t so it doesn’t really matter what we all think prices should be at.
The point is they still seem to be moving at those inflated prices. The market is based on supply and demand and there are still people willing to pay those kind of inflated prices for 4S Ranch it seems like. I sure can’t figure it out but I guess that doesn’t matter to Mr. Market.
If the builders can get $700’s and $800’s for that inferior quality then good for them I guess. I just couldn’t see shelling out that kind of money for that kind of house. But plenty of people seem to be willing to pay those kinds of prices.
November 30, 2011 at 4:25 PM #733662mp7444
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]… And if a typical lot in this price range is only, say, 3800 sf, …[/quote]
The original post is quite old… I guess in that time some of the lots may be about that size. But I know that many of the new homes in the $700-$800’s are in the lot size about 7000sf.
[quote=earlyretirement]
We ended up buying in Santaluz. It was more expensive at around $1 million vs. 4S Ranch but the quality was so much better, low density, homes were gorgeous, lot and grounds meticulously maintained, etc. ….[/quote]
ER, I am glad you enjoy living in SantaLuz. I probably would as well if I had the money. I don’t think it’s a fair comparison as 4S and SantaLuz are not in the same type of homes anyway. Unless you’re talking about the Ivy Gate, or the Salviati, or the Mission Ranch (to be built in 2012)November 30, 2011 at 5:51 PM #733672Participant[quote=captcha]
Single vs. dual matters because part of the ‘comfortable’ is psychological. I am more comfortable spending $X/month if I know that I can easily generate another $50K/year income stream.I used 25% because that’s what it takes to get the best rate. Your tax deduction is rather conservative. Assuming $600 in principal payment and $100 insurance (and skipping the MR deductible-or-not discussion) the deduction should be ~25-30%, i.e. ~$500-600/month.
Looking around, most 4S families are either families of retired/active military officers or immigrant engineers working at major SD companies. Usually with limited medical bills (decent insurance) and no student loans (foreign educated, government paid, etc).
I am not saying what you are getting in 4S Ranch is worth the money, just that fiscally-responsible single-income $125K/year family can rather comfortable afford $500K place.[/quote]
Psychological is different for different people. Some might find it more comforting that both parents are working and it’s easier to find a job when you were recently employed vs being out of the work force for so long.How many people actually put down 25%? I don’t know the statistics, but I would assume it’s not that many. Especially people in the $400-600k range. I compute my tax deduction based on (interest + tax – standard deduction) * 25% tax bracket. You forgot the standard deduction in your calculation.
Even with decent insurance where you don’t have to pay for any of the premium, you still have out of pocket stuff, dental stuff, vision stuff. They add a little or a lot, depend on how much you use/need. How many people don’t have student loans? Why am I hearing all the talk about student loans being a huge problem, yet you don’t think anyone in 4S have student loans? I didn’t even talk about saving for rainy day yet, just retirement. Again, lets assume you’re right and those who live in 4S spend $0 on medical and student loan, how much does a family spend a month? You have $2200 to play with. How much would be a good rainy day saving? To me, comfortable would be saving $1k-2k/month for rainy day, on top of maxing out 401k and IRA. That would leave this theoretical family $200-1200 to spend on everything else. I don’t consider that comfortable.
All of this is talking about a $500k house too, how about a $600k house? If you recall, ocrenter was saying $400-600k and I said it should be more like $300-500k. Ideally, it would be $300-500k w/out HOA&MR.
November 30, 2011 at 9:57 PM #733696Participant[quote=AN][quote=captcha]
Single vs. dual matters because part of the ‘comfortable’ is psychological. I am more comfortable spending $X/month if I know that I can easily generate another $50K/year income stream.I used 25% because that’s what it takes to get the best rate. Your tax deduction is rather conservative. Assuming $600 in principal payment and $100 insurance (and skipping the MR deductible-or-not discussion) the deduction should be ~25-30%, i.e. ~$500-600/month.
Looking around, most 4S families are either families of retired/active military officers or immigrant engineers working at major SD companies. Usually with limited medical bills (decent insurance) and no student loans (foreign educated, government paid, etc).
I am not saying what you are getting in 4S Ranch is worth the money, just that fiscally-responsible single-income $125K/year family can rather comfortable afford $500K place.[/quote]
Psychological is different for different people. Some might find it more comforting that both parents are working and it’s easier to find a job when you were recently employed vs being out of the work force for so long.
[/quote]
Indeed. But between being single-income by choice and dual-income by necessity which one would you pick? And weren’t you the one who brought up the 4% unemployment rate among people with 4-year college degree? So, is it hard or not to get a job if you are well educated?[quote=AN]How many people actually put down 25%? I don’t know the statistics, but I would assume it’s not that many. Especially people in the $400-600k range. I compute my tax deduction based on (interest + tax – standard deduction) * 25% tax bracket. You forgot the standard deduction in your calculation.
[/quote]
I don’t know how many put 25% down. JimTheRealtor publishes numbers like that for few costal areas. Back in June 13% of sales were with less than 20% down and 44% put 30% or more.
Standard deduction is nice. But the deductible state tax is comparable and you forgot about it.[quote=AN]
Even with decent insurance where you don’t have to pay for any of the premium, you still have out of pocket stuff, dental stuff, vision stuff. They add a little or a lot, depend on how much you use/need.
[/quote]Majority of 4S people appear to be in their 30’s and 40’s. A family of four… I don’t know, should not be more than $1K/year.
[quote=AN]
How many people don’t have student loans? Why am I hearing all the talk about student loans being a huge problem, yet you don’t think anyone in 4S have student loans?
[/quote]I did not say anyone. Get-rich-quick people that got flushed probably did have those. Or maybe not since they likely were not college educated. Looking at my cul-de-sac, there are two retired military officers, two active duty military officers, 7-8 engineering immigrants mostly in mid-level managerial positions. That’s what I see when I look around.
[quote=AN]
I didn’t even talk about saving for rainy day yet, just retirement. Again, lets assume you’re right and those who live in 4S spend $0 on medical and student loan, how much does a family spend a month? You have $2200 to play with. How much would be a good rainy day saving? To me, comfortable would be saving $1k-2k/month for rainy day, on top of maxing out 401k and IRA. That would leave this theoretical family $200-1200 to spend on everything else.
[/quote]
Your numbers are off. My first-hand experience says that a family of four can carry $400K mortgage, put $20K in 401k+IRA, travel to Europe, make several ski trips to Big Bear, own two cars, have two kids enrolled in 7 year-round activities combined, dine out at least twice/month, see a dentist twice/year, pay an extra payment or two on the mortgage, and still easily save $1K/month on $125K/year.[quote=AN]
I don’t consider that comfortable.
[/quote]
That’s OK. Some people are fiscally conservative and some are even more fiscally conservative.[quote=AN]
All of this is talking about a $500k house too, how about a $600k house? If you recall, ocrenter was saying $400-600k and I said it should be more like $300-500k. Ideally, it would be $300-500k w/out HOA&MR.[/quote]The difference between $400K and $500K today is what, maybe $400/month after taxes? I know that is a lot of money for some people, but honestly, on $125K/year and the aforementioned second income stream sitting idle $400/month is nothing. Cable + phone bill or the difference between Acura and Honda.
November 30, 2011 at 10:08 PM #733697Participant[quote=AN]How many people actually put down 25%? I don’t know the statistics, but I would assume it’s not that many. Especially people in the $400-600k range.[/quote]
Of course, it’s anecdotal, but I believe at least 40% of homebuyers put down at least 30%. We in lower-priced properties (this includes YOU, AN and ME) don’t see this because we don’t come into contact with it, like a RE professional would. In properties above $600K, I believe that the majority of current buyers put down 30% to 50%. Of course, this didn’t happen during the “millenium boom.” During that time, lenders routinely approved unqualified buyers to borrow far more $$ than they could ever pay back and also routinely made 100% LTV mortgages using 2nd TDs. This enabled purchasers who could qualify for a $150-$300K purchase on a bright sunny day (in a “normal” lending environment) to qualify for a $500-$850K purchase and drove up the prices of properties that should have been $200-$600K less under normal circumstances.
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