[4plexowner]

“Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.”

where in the COT report do the US gold reserves show up?

Russia’s?

the IMF’s?

China’s?

aren’t we talking apples and oranges here?

the COT report shows open interest in the paper markets – foreign countries are buying physical gold and holding it in their hot little hands

what am I missing?

edit: China has recently banned the export of gold and is the 2nd largest producer of gold in the world – how would China increasing their gold reserves, or the Chinese people buying gold for investment, show up on the COT report?

[4plexowner]

“Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.”

where in the COT report do the US gold reserves show up?

Russia’s?

the IMF’s?

China’s?

aren’t we talking apples and oranges here?

the COT report shows open interest in the paper markets – foreign countries are buying physical gold and holding it in their hot little hands

what am I missing?

edit: China has recently banned the export of gold and is the 2nd largest producer of gold in the world – how would China increasing their gold reserves, or the Chinese people buying gold for investment, show up on the COT report?

[4plexowner]

“Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.”

where in the COT report do the US gold reserves show up?

Russia’s?

the IMF’s?

China’s?

aren’t we talking apples and oranges here?

the COT report shows open interest in the paper markets – foreign countries are buying physical gold and holding it in their hot little hands

what am I missing?

edit: China has recently banned the export of gold and is the 2nd largest producer of gold in the world – how would China increasing their gold reserves, or the Chinese people buying gold for investment, show up on the COT report?

[4plexowner]

“Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.”

where in the COT report do the US gold reserves show up?

Russia’s?

the IMF’s?

China’s?

aren’t we talking apples and oranges here?

the COT report shows open interest in the paper markets – foreign countries are buying physical gold and holding it in their hot little hands

what am I missing?

edit: China has recently banned the export of gold and is the 2nd largest producer of gold in the world – how would China increasing their gold reserves, or the Chinese people buying gold for investment, show up on the COT report?

[4plexowner]

“Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.”

where in the COT report do the US gold reserves show up?

Russia’s?

the IMF’s?

China’s?

aren’t we talking apples and oranges here?

the COT report shows open interest in the paper markets – foreign countries are buying physical gold and holding it in their hot little hands

what am I missing?

edit: China has recently banned the export of gold and is the 2nd largest producer of gold in the world – how would China increasing their gold reserves, or the Chinese people buying gold for investment, show up on the COT report?

[4plexowner]

this post refers to Eugene’s chart posted at the top of this thread

Let’s take some time understanding this chart

The blue line shows the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF – I believe the left axis is showing tons

Eugene is pointing to the action in 08 and 09 as a change in trends

No argument about that – clearly something changed – the price of gold went down while the tonnage of gold held by GLD went up

Eugene’s interpretation of this change is that smart money sold physical gold while dumb money bought paper gold in GLD

I won’t argue that point – it is one possible interpretation of the data

I will point out however that, as always, there is more than one factor acting on any given market at any given time

These factors express themselves in the price action of the market being analyzed

We can talk, argue, bloviate, etc about one interpretation vs another all day long – the data that Piggs are so insistent upon shows up in price

Notice in the chart that Eugene provided how gold’s price behaves when it pushes up through a round number ($400, $500, etc)

It doesn’t just punch through the number and move on to the next target – it has to beat on the number a few times before punching through decisively

So Eugene’s chart shows us the same action at $1000 – price has touched the number and pulled back

If we look closely we see that gold has had several rises of $250 – from $450 to $700 – from $650 to $900 – form a base and then rise, form a base and then rise …

Current base is $900 – tell me that the next target for gold, based on this chart, ISN’T $1150/oz!

Back to GLD holdings

So they started to increase in Feb 2008

Hadn’t the equity markets started to tank around October of 2007?

Let’s see, DOW 14,100 in Oct 2007 – DOW 11,600 in Feb 2008 – a decline of 2500 points or 18%

Do you think a few stock investors might have been scared out of stocks and into the perceived safety of GLD? Unwilling to pull their money out of 401Ks and retirement plans to buy physical gold, they were constrained to buying paper gold ala GLD?

Just another interpretation of the data …

[4plexowner]

this post refers to Eugene’s chart posted at the top of this thread

Let’s take some time understanding this chart

The blue line shows the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF – I believe the left axis is showing tons

Eugene is pointing to the action in 08 and 09 as a change in trends

No argument about that – clearly something changed – the price of gold went down while the tonnage of gold held by GLD went up

Eugene’s interpretation of this change is that smart money sold physical gold while dumb money bought paper gold in GLD

I won’t argue that point – it is one possible interpretation of the data

I will point out however that, as always, there is more than one factor acting on any given market at any given time

These factors express themselves in the price action of the market being analyzed

We can talk, argue, bloviate, etc about one interpretation vs another all day long – the data that Piggs are so insistent upon shows up in price

Notice in the chart that Eugene provided how gold’s price behaves when it pushes up through a round number ($400, $500, etc)

It doesn’t just punch through the number and move on to the next target – it has to beat on the number a few times before punching through decisively

So Eugene’s chart shows us the same action at $1000 – price has touched the number and pulled back

If we look closely we see that gold has had several rises of $250 – from $450 to $700 – from $650 to $900 – form a base and then rise, form a base and then rise …

Current base is $900 – tell me that the next target for gold, based on this chart, ISN’T $1150/oz!

Back to GLD holdings

So they started to increase in Feb 2008

Hadn’t the equity markets started to tank around October of 2007?

Let’s see, DOW 14,100 in Oct 2007 – DOW 11,600 in Feb 2008 – a decline of 2500 points or 18%

Do you think a few stock investors might have been scared out of stocks and into the perceived safety of GLD? Unwilling to pull their money out of 401Ks and retirement plans to buy physical gold, they were constrained to buying paper gold ala GLD?

Just another interpretation of the data …

[4plexowner]

this post refers to Eugene’s chart posted at the top of this thread

Let’s take some time understanding this chart

The blue line shows the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF – I believe the left axis is showing tons

Eugene is pointing to the action in 08 and 09 as a change in trends

No argument about that – clearly something changed – the price of gold went down while the tonnage of gold held by GLD went up

Eugene’s interpretation of this change is that smart money sold physical gold while dumb money bought paper gold in GLD

I won’t argue that point – it is one possible interpretation of the data

I will point out however that, as always, there is more than one factor acting on any given market at any given time

These factors express themselves in the price action of the market being analyzed

We can talk, argue, bloviate, etc about one interpretation vs another all day long – the data that Piggs are so insistent upon shows up in price

Notice in the chart that Eugene provided how gold’s price behaves when it pushes up through a round number ($400, $500, etc)

It doesn’t just punch through the number and move on to the next target – it has to beat on the number a few times before punching through decisively

So Eugene’s chart shows us the same action at $1000 – price has touched the number and pulled back

If we look closely we see that gold has had several rises of $250 – from $450 to $700 – from $650 to $900 – form a base and then rise, form a base and then rise …

Current base is $900 – tell me that the next target for gold, based on this chart, ISN’T $1150/oz!

Back to GLD holdings

So they started to increase in Feb 2008

Hadn’t the equity markets started to tank around October of 2007?

Let’s see, DOW 14,100 in Oct 2007 – DOW 11,600 in Feb 2008 – a decline of 2500 points or 18%

Do you think a few stock investors might have been scared out of stocks and into the perceived safety of GLD? Unwilling to pull their money out of 401Ks and retirement plans to buy physical gold, they were constrained to buying paper gold ala GLD?

Just another interpretation of the data …

[4plexowner]

this post refers to Eugene’s chart posted at the top of this thread

Let’s take some time understanding this chart

The blue line shows the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF – I believe the left axis is showing tons

Eugene is pointing to the action in 08 and 09 as a change in trends

No argument about that – clearly something changed – the price of gold went down while the tonnage of gold held by GLD went up

Eugene’s interpretation of this change is that smart money sold physical gold while dumb money bought paper gold in GLD

I won’t argue that point – it is one possible interpretation of the data

I will point out however that, as always, there is more than one factor acting on any given market at any given time

These factors express themselves in the price action of the market being analyzed

We can talk, argue, bloviate, etc about one interpretation vs another all day long – the data that Piggs are so insistent upon shows up in price

Notice in the chart that Eugene provided how gold’s price behaves when it pushes up through a round number ($400, $500, etc)

It doesn’t just punch through the number and move on to the next target – it has to beat on the number a few times before punching through decisively

So Eugene’s chart shows us the same action at $1000 – price has touched the number and pulled back

If we look closely we see that gold has had several rises of $250 – from $450 to $700 – from $650 to $900 – form a base and then rise, form a base and then rise …

Current base is $900 – tell me that the next target for gold, based on this chart, ISN’T $1150/oz!

Back to GLD holdings

So they started to increase in Feb 2008

Hadn’t the equity markets started to tank around October of 2007?

Let’s see, DOW 14,100 in Oct 2007 – DOW 11,600 in Feb 2008 – a decline of 2500 points or 18%

Do you think a few stock investors might have been scared out of stocks and into the perceived safety of GLD? Unwilling to pull their money out of 401Ks and retirement plans to buy physical gold, they were constrained to buying paper gold ala GLD?

Just another interpretation of the data …

[4plexowner]

this post refers to Eugene’s chart posted at the top of this thread

Let’s take some time understanding this chart

The blue line shows the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF – I believe the left axis is showing tons

Eugene is pointing to the action in 08 and 09 as a change in trends

No argument about that – clearly something changed – the price of gold went down while the tonnage of gold held by GLD went up

Eugene’s interpretation of this change is that smart money sold physical gold while dumb money bought paper gold in GLD

I won’t argue that point – it is one possible interpretation of the data

I will point out however that, as always, there is more than one factor acting on any given market at any given time

These factors express themselves in the price action of the market being analyzed

We can talk, argue, bloviate, etc about one interpretation vs another all day long – the data that Piggs are so insistent upon shows up in price

Notice in the chart that Eugene provided how gold’s price behaves when it pushes up through a round number ($400, $500, etc)

It doesn’t just punch through the number and move on to the next target – it has to beat on the number a few times before punching through decisively

So Eugene’s chart shows us the same action at $1000 – price has touched the number and pulled back

If we look closely we see that gold has had several rises of $250 – from $450 to $700 – from $650 to $900 – form a base and then rise, form a base and then rise …

Current base is $900 – tell me that the next target for gold, based on this chart, ISN’T $1150/oz!

Back to GLD holdings

So they started to increase in Feb 2008

Hadn’t the equity markets started to tank around October of 2007?

Let’s see, DOW 14,100 in Oct 2007 – DOW 11,600 in Feb 2008 – a decline of 2500 points or 18%

Do you think a few stock investors might have been scared out of stocks and into the perceived safety of GLD? Unwilling to pull their money out of 401Ks and retirement plans to buy physical gold, they were constrained to buying paper gold ala GLD?

Just another interpretation of the data …

[4plexowner]

“Unfortunate parallels between people buying gold now and subprime suckers buying houses in 2006 come to mind.”

and here’s the tricky part of investing – timing!

you think the gold ‘bubble’ is at or near its peak ala the housing market in 2006

I think the gold ‘bubble’ is more like the housing market in 2002 with another several years to run – not only that, I think the gains in the gold ‘bubble’ will astound people the same way housing gains in the final years of the bubble astounded me

one of us will be right …

[4plexowner]

“Unfortunate parallels between people buying gold now and subprime suckers buying houses in 2006 come to mind.”

and here’s the tricky part of investing – timing!

you think the gold ‘bubble’ is at or near its peak ala the housing market in 2006

I think the gold ‘bubble’ is more like the housing market in 2002 with another several years to run – not only that, I think the gains in the gold ‘bubble’ will astound people the same way housing gains in the final years of the bubble astounded me

one of us will be right …

[4plexowner]

“Unfortunate parallels between people buying gold now and subprime suckers buying houses in 2006 come to mind.”

and here’s the tricky part of investing – timing!

you think the gold ‘bubble’ is at or near its peak ala the housing market in 2006

I think the gold ‘bubble’ is more like the housing market in 2002 with another several years to run – not only that, I think the gains in the gold ‘bubble’ will astound people the same way housing gains in the final years of the bubble astounded me

one of us will be right …

[4plexowner]

“Unfortunate parallels between people buying gold now and subprime suckers buying houses in 2006 come to mind.”

and here’s the tricky part of investing – timing!

you think the gold ‘bubble’ is at or near its peak ala the housing market in 2006

I think the gold ‘bubble’ is more like the housing market in 2002 with another several years to run – not only that, I think the gains in the gold ‘bubble’ will astound people the same way housing gains in the final years of the bubble astounded me

one of us will be right …

[4plexowner]

“Unfortunate parallels between people buying gold now and subprime suckers buying houses in 2006 come to mind.”

and here’s the tricky part of investing – timing!

you think the gold ‘bubble’ is at or near its peak ala the housing market in 2006

I think the gold ‘bubble’ is more like the housing market in 2002 with another several years to run – not only that, I think the gains in the gold ‘bubble’ will astound people the same way housing gains in the final years of the bubble astounded me

one of us will be right …

[Author]

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