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4plexowner
Participantjohn67elco
Please change the “your” in your tag line to “you’re”.
It’s a cute line but you look less than intelligent when your tag line has a mis-spelling (and you’re calling the reader stupid!).
I’ve ignored it for about a week now and I know at least one other person has suggested that you make the correction.
Don’t give us housing bears a bad name!!!
OK, so I’m anal-retentive about spelling.
ParticipantMost NG used in the US is produced in the US. Some NG is imported from Canada.
Right now, NG is almost exclusively transported by pipeline.
Technology for shipping liquid-NG (LNG) via tanker is improving. Cheniere (stock symbol LNG) is building 4 LNG ports in the US – this company will be the dominant LNG supplier in the US. As energy prices remain high, LNG will play an increasing role in the US.
Demand for NG depends to some extent on weather.
Most heating in the US is via NG so cold weather increases NG demand.
Hot weather also increases NG usage because many of the peak-load power plants are powered by NG. As the temperature rises and people turn on their A/C, these peak-load plants fire up.
Interesting tidbit: the oil sands producers are using natural gas to heat up and process the oil sands – this is a new demand for NG and obviously affects the supply / demand equation – less NG may be coming to the US from Canada in the future.
My opinion: we have seen the end of cheap energy – economic forecasts based on $50 oil are not realistic – the awareness of the end of cheap energy has yet to permeate the planet’s awareness
ParticipantMost NG used in the US is produced in the US. Some NG is imported from Canada.
Right now, NG is almost exclusively transported by pipeline.
Technology for shipping liquid-NG (LNG) via tanker is improving. Cheniere (stock symbol LNG) is building 4 LNG ports in the US – this company will be the dominant LNG supplier in the US. As energy prices remain high, LNG will play an increasing role in the US.
Demand for NG depends to some extent on weather.
Most heating in the US is via NG so cold weather increases NG demand.
Hot weather also increases NG usage because many of the peak-load power plants are powered by NG. As the temperature rises and people turn on their A/C, these peak-load plants fire up.
Interesting tidbit: the oil sands producers are using natural gas to heat up and process the oil sands – this is a new demand for NG and obviously affects the supply / demand equation – less NG may be coming to the US from Canada in the future.
My opinion: we have seen the end of cheap energy – economic forecasts based on $50 oil are not realistic – the awareness of the end of cheap energy has yet to permeate the planet’s awareness
ParticipantMy realtor has rented several Coronado and Mission Hills view properties over the years. She is typically looking for $3500+/month.
She says that mostly she deals with these type of people:
> horrible credit – unable to buy but can afford the rent
> in the midst of a divorce and don’t want to buy anything
> only in San Diego short term
> need place to live while house is built / remodelledParticipantIt’s not journalism, it’s marketing for the San Diego housing industry.
When 40% of the housing market is dependent on 2nd home buyers and investors (who obviously have to rent the extra housing they own) SOMEBODY had better continue saying that rents will go up or this 40% of the market is going to stop buying.
If this 40% thought that rents were going to flatten out OR EVEN DECLINE, they might stop buying and they might even sell their extra housing – and then there would be a glut of housing on the for-sale market …
Oh, we’re already there …
June 4, 2006 at 5:05 AM in reply to: Financial book review – “The Creature from Jekyll Island – A Second Look at the Federal Reserve” by G. Edward Griffin #26160ParticipantChapter Four
Home, Sweet Loan
[4plexowner: here are some snippets from chapter 4 to pique your interest]
~ The history of increasing government intervention in the housing industry; the stifling of free-market forces in residential real estate; the resulting crisis in the S&L industry; the bailout of that industry with money taken from the taxpayer. ~
As we have seen in previous chapters, the damage done by the banking cartel is made possible by the fact that money can be created out of nothing. It also destroys our purchasing power through the hidden tax called inflation. The mechanism by which it works is hidden and subtle. …
A House On Every Lot
At about the same time, loans on private homes became subsidized through the Federal Housing Authority (FHA) which allowed S&Ls to make loans at rates lower than would have been possible without the subsidy. … the FHA-induced easy credit began to push up the price of houses for the middle class, and that quickly offset any real advantage of the subsidy. The voters, however, were not perceptive enough to understand this canceling effect and continued to vote for politicians who promised to expand the system. …
Abandonment of the Free Market
These measures effectively removed real estate loans from the free market and placed them into the political arena, where they have remained ever since. …
A Cartel Within A Cartel
… And Congress could not do that without the banking cartel called the Federal Reserve System standing by as the “lender of last resort” to create money out of nothing for Congress to borrow. This comfortable arrangement between political scientists and monetary scientists permits Congress to vote for any scheme it wants, regardless of the cost. If politicians tried to raise that money through taxes, they would be thrown out of office. But being able to “borrow” it from the Federal Reserve System upon demand, allows them to collect it through the hidden mechanism of inflation, and not one voter in a hundred will complain. …
… As desirable as it may be for everyone to afford a home, we must understand that government programs pretending to make that possible actually wreak havoc with our system and bring about just the opposite of what they promise. After 60 years of subsidizing and regulating the housing industry, how many young people today can afford a home? Tinkering with the laws of supply and demand, plus the hidden tax called inflation to pay for the tinkering, has driven prices beyond the reach of many …
ParticipantPD, I’m going to respond to some of the points in your post – “4plexowner, you seem to have a lot of anti-American sentiment.”. Please don’t take this as an attack on you or your beliefs. My intent is to offer another perspective on the events that you refer to.
“The United States is the most benevolent superpower in the history of the world. Every other country or Empire with similar resources for their time invaded, raped, slaughtered and subjugated whomever they could reach.”
I’m assuming this is in reference to Iraq. By the UN’s own definition of warfare, America started an aggressive war when it invaded Iraq. How do you define the events at Abu Ghraib prison? Does it bother you that NO officers have been convicted of wrongdoing in that matter? What about the US troops who are currently being investigated for the murder of an Iraqi family with the youngest child being 1 year old? This murder (if it was murder) occurred about six months ago and has been covered up since.
“They certainly did not help a defeated country set up self-governance and encourage future autonomy.”
Again, I’m assuming that you are referring to Iraq. After destroying a large part of Iraq’s basic infrastructure in an aggressive war America then tried to create a puppet government there. No-bid contracts were given to government-connected corporations to rebuild the destroyed infrastructure. After spending 100’s of billions of dollars on this rebuilding effort, numerous reports indicate that Iraqis have less electricity, clean water, access to healthcare, gasoline, etc today than they did before America decided to “help them”.
“The US could easily have claimed half of Europe after WWII, the Russians certainly did.”
Once you realize that the banking cartel starts wars because it is good for their business, history takes on new meaning. WWII occurred in part as a result of the banking/financial games that were played in WWI.
“We also could have pillaged Japan, yet we walked away after a short occupation.”
America remained in Japan after the war and still has troops stationed there today. We were instrumental in rebuilding their war-ravaged country and we implemented the quality control measures that allowed Japanese industry to prosper in the world.
“We could easily have claimed Afghanistan as a territory and could even now be requiring English in the schools. The same goes for Iraq.”
I find it interesting that America only tries to occupy and control countries that have oil. Afghanistan doesn’t have oil so America isn’t interested in claiming it. In Iraq, on the other hand, America is building 14 major military bases and president Bush recently stated that future presidents would have to decide when the troops would leave Iraq (meaning they will remain through 2008 at least). Pakistan and North Korea are allowed to have nuclear weapons but Iran can’t have them. Again, notice that neither Pakistan or North Korea have significant petroleum reserves but Iran does.
ParticipantPD, when you talk about a “significant problem with a group of religious fanatics”, which group of religious fanatics are you referring to – ours or theirs?
ParticipantGod has truly blessed me. Just being born in the United States is a blessing, IMO. I was also blessed with upper-middle class parents that gave me a good childhood and taught me important ideals and values. I worked hard and continued to be blessed here in America – first paper route at 12, first fast food job at 15, army at 18, college at 21, engineering degree with honors, recruited to San Diego by major corporation – yep, the harder I worked the more I was blessed.
A few years ago I found myself blessed with lots of paper equity in southern CA real estate and I set out on a path of education. I had never had any significant assets before and I didn’t want to screw it up.
The more I learned the more outraged I became at the elitist controlled world of fiat money. I learned that wars are created by the banking cartel because it is good for their business – they get to finance both sides during the war and then they get to finance the reconstruction of the damage done during the war. These wars are also useful to the government of a country in decline because the citizens can be distracted by the war. Economic meltdowns can be hidden behind war fervor. Read “The Creature from Jekyll Island” – it sheds light on how the US Federal Reserve came into being and how the US banking system was created and continues to be controlled by European interests. Numerous examples are provided of how the banking cartel has financed both factions in a war. And don’t forget that the equity markets were in a significant downtrend BEFORE 9/11.
I’m about as patriotic as they come. I can rarely sing either the National Anthem or God Bless America without a lump rising in my throat.
Through my learning, I realized that the lump in my throat was not for the America that I was living in today, but for the America that I envisioned in my mind and loved in my heart. It was the America that you are talking about in your post.
The ‘lump in the throat’ America, IMO, has been lost over the last few decades.
The last six years in particular have marked numerous erosions of America’s one-time glory.
The US Constitution has been blatantly ignored on several occasions by “the decider”.
America started a war of aggression by the United Nation’s own definition of “aggressive warfare”. This war was not approved by the UN Security Council and now many questions are being raised about how and why America started the war.
Numerous examples of fraud and corruption have come to light in both industry and government.
Government statistics have become a joke to all economists who aren’t in somebody’s pocket. I’m not sure which is worse, being lied to, or having them think that we are stupid enough to be lied to and believe it.
Anyway, I consider myself to be very patriotic. The “anti-American sentiment” that you detect in my writing (your labelling, not mine) is my frustration and anger over the rapid downhill slide that I see my country on. The excellent system of American government that was given to us by our forefathers has been perverted to today’s system of government which is for the benefit of corporate interests and not the American citizens.
Participantinre the March 24 upleg: I agree with Mr. Hamilton that only speculators can move a market as large as gold ($2.7 trillion @ $550/oz by his numbers) up $847 billion in 34 days. I’m assuming that dropping the M-3 numbers was the trigger for this upleg but I’ve been wrong before.
Talk to Mike and April at Cellar Coin in PB if you are interested in purchasing physical metals. Mike has consistently had the best prices whether I was buying or selling. (PS: Mike won’t know who you are talking about if you tell him “4plexowner sent me” and I don’t benefit from his business in any way)
Excellent reasons for holding precious metals, powayseller. As Richard Russell points out, gold will always be worth something but who knows about paper assets.
Also prudent advice for everyone to be prepared within their homes. Start with the idea that you won’t have any supplies except what you have inside your house for three days (no grocery store, 7/11, COSTCO, etc). That means you need water, food, etc. Then work up from that point – add some dehydrated or freeze-dried foods. George Ure (www.urbansurvival.com) recommends focusing on high-protein foods for storage (#10 cans frz-dried chicken, for example). Do you have a first aid kit in the house? Think about the things you might need in an emergency situation and make sure you have them on hand. Pay attention to natural disasters that have occurred in the US – one of the things I notice is that stores that remain open stop taking anything except cash for payment – no credit cards, ATM, etc – plan appropriately.
I find it amazing to think about today’s electronic financial world and the potential for problems. Rick Ackerman (www.rickackerman.com) paints this potential scenario: a financial meltdown occurs overnight in Asia or Europe and the US markets don’t open the next morning. All the stocks and bonds in the world won’t do you any good if they only exist in an electronic account somewhere.
ParticipantOne man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.
America is practicing Empirialism when she assumes the sole right to decide which man is which.
ParticipantI found it interesting that in the June Zeal Intelligence newsletter, Mr. Hamilton labelled all of his charts with March 23rd but had this to say in his text: “But out of the blue on March 24th gold soared $10.”
I’m guessing that Mr. Hamilton is being politically correct with his “out of the blue” statement. It seems like more than a coincidence that gold, silver and copper all broke out in new uplegs on March 24th.
So, if dropping the M-3 data on March 23 initiated this last rally, why did the rally end in May? Is M-3 data important in March but not important in May?
Well, as Mr. Hamilton points out, markets breathe in and they breathe out.
Dropping the M-3 data appears to be the impetus for the latest rally in gold/silver/copper.
The fact that these markets are now correcting doesn’t indicate that the M-3 data is no longer important.
If gold never corrected after the March 23 breakout, the gold bull market would burn out very quickly without reaching its full potential.
The current correction allows sentiment towards gold to become balanced again before the next upleg.
I was fascinated by the overall growth of the gold market in the 34 day upleg. $847 billion – WOW! These are the kinds of insights that make me think Mr. Hamilton is invaluable.
If you go back and read my posts, you will find that I never recommended anyone taking a position in silver or gold. What I did say is that I would be adding to my position when gold and silver converge on their 200 dma’s. At the time you were asking about gold, it WAS a risky time to buy and several other people in the thread pointed that out.
I established my position at prices much lower than today’s so I’m not concerned about the current correction. It doesn’t feel like I have “lost a lot of money” and I am very excited about laying in my positions for the next upleg in silver/gold.
As with any investment/trading position, you only take a loss when you sell. For you to “lose lots of money” you would have to buy high and sell low (which is what most “investors” do).
This is why I believe the first thing any investor/speculator/trader needs to do is figure out a ‘big’ picture in which to take action. A trader’s big picture might only cover one day or three days. The speculator might consider a few weeks or months to be his ‘big picture’. The investor is probably looking at six months to several years.
When I talk about silver and gold, understand that I am looking at a ‘big picture’ that goes out to at least 2011. Anything I say about silver and gold BULLION fits within this big picture. I don’t talk about the stocks of silver/gold miners because I’m not interested in providing trading advice. I will (and have) pointed out the resources that I find valuable for trading the stocks (www.zealllc.com !!!).
Yes, gold and silver are volatile. Several of the people I follow believe that this volatility will increase. Jim Sinclair believes we will see gold moving in $100 increments PER DAY before this bull market is over. If that is too volatile for you then make an appropriate decision.
I am confident that gold is headed to at least $1650 an ounce so I don’t really care how much it moves around on a day-to-day basis. Same with silver – since it is headed to $80+ an ounce I’m not going to worry about it correcting from $15 down to $9 (I hope!).
My main points:
> decide what you are: investor, speculator, trader
> if you fall into more than one of these categories you need to allocate certain percentages of you overall portfolio to each category
> develop a ‘big picture’ that is appropriate to the timeframe in which you plan to remain exposed to the market
> it is the ‘big picture’ that keeps you from dumping your position when a correction comes along – if I didn’t have a big picture for silver and gold I would probably be an unhappy camper right now because of “all the money I just lost” in the current correctionParticipantThis week’s Zeal Speculator recommended positions in two small cap energy companies that are currently near their 200 day moving averages.
Even if you aren’t an investor/speculator, the free essays at http://www.zealllc.com are worth reading.
Adam Hamilton is THE MAN!
ParticipantDon’t forget that some people believe that the US government (or factions within it) allowed and perhaps facilitated the events of 9/11.
Governments exist primarily to protect their citizens from “the enemy”.
The “terrorists” are the perfect enemy because there will always be more of them. There is absolutely no chance of our government running out of an enemy to protect us from when they can point at anyone and label them a “terrorist”.
They have acknowledged this recently by changing the “war on terror” to the “long war”.
They want us to understand (and accept) that they will be protecting us for a LONG time.
And, by the way, in order to protect us they need to compile every little detail about each of us into a massive database. We shouldn’t mind that they are monitoring our e-mails, blog posts and telephone calls since they are only doing it to protect us from the terrorists. We also shouldn’t wonder why FEMA is building detention camps within the US borders – I’m sure that only the “terrorists” will be placed in these camps – not you or me or anyone that we know …
Unfortunately you are right that “It will happen again”. The same people that perpetrated 9/11 will create another event of even greater magnitude and use that as a reason to attack Iran with nuclear weapons.
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