[4plexowner]

Your ‘rents will go up’ premise will also be wrong as several thousand condos downtown become rentals.

But you know, whatever helps you sleep at night …

[4plexowner]

Wall Street doesn’t make $$$ when intelligent people protect their wealth by purchasing real money (physical silver and gold). Wall Street will do everything they can to discourage/prevent us from doing so.

The recent introduction of silver and gold ETFs is Wall Street’s attempt to capture some of the smart money moving into commodities.

The silver iShares ETF has filed with the SEC to increase their holdings by 150% (from 100 mil oz to 250 mil oz). Some analysts question whether there is that much silver available – it certainly isn’t available on the COMEX.

I agree that silver and gold will re-enter the monetary picture at some point in our future. Probably when gold passes $1500/oz.

Yes, I am a silver and gold BULL! We are in a long-term bull market for silver and gold. Based on past commodities bull markets, this one will run until at least 2011 and probably much longer. My exectations are for $80/oz silver and $1650/oz gold – I am hoping for much higher numbers and I favor silver over gold because the % gain will be much higher.

Silver and gold may go lower from here but I have been buying both for the last few weeks. This could well be our last chance to buy gold under $600/oz and silver under $12/oz.

Sorry for climbing up on my soap-box again: if you want to understand how we are all being screwed by the banking cartel and their fiat currency you must read “Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve”, by Edward Griffin.

[4plexowner]

This article does a much better job of describing how Goldman Sach’s change affected the energy markets.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/1004b.html

~

If you really want to understand how the world works read “The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve”, by Edward Griffin.

This book explains how the Western world is controlled by the banking cartel.

This book should be required reading for all Americans.

[4plexowner]

Goldman Sachs maintains a commodities index (GSCI) that has unleaded gas as one of the components.

Our new ‘friend’ Henry Paulson cut the weighting of the unleaded gas component by 75% in early August.

Any mutual or hedge funds following this index responded by selling their gas future long positions.

Lots of selling means that supply overcomes demand and walla, down go the prices.

[4plexowner]

Thousands of downtown condos will end up as rentals.

This glut of condo rentals will depress rents on single family houses.

Remember that housing that isn’t bought by a homeowner WILL become a rental eventually. It might sit on the market vacant for many months but eventually it will be added to the rental stock.

The only exception I know of to this rule is the condo towers across from the Convention Center that were left vacant for about 10 years since there was no market for them.

[4plexowner]

Question: What do you call the period of history when the Church dominated all aspects of western life?

Answer: The Dark Ages

Question: What do you call the period of history after the shackles of the Church were thrown off?

Answer: The Age of Enlightenment

[4plexowner]

Here are some links inre defective new homes:

http://www.defectivehomes.info/

http://extra.orlandosentinel.com/buildingproblems/

http://www.houseorapt.com/tollbrotherstruth1.html

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/personal-finance/shoddy-home-construction-104/overview/index.htm

http://www.complaints.com/directory/2005/january/5/35.htm

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I don’t have personal experience with construction defect issues.

I do have lots of experience dealing with plumbers, handymen, painters, carpet installers, window installers, etc – all the services needed to keep rental property in tip-top shape.

I was continually frustrated and amazed at the low quality workmanship I got for my money. Even more amazing to me was that nobody cared whether I had one unit or twenty – I still got the same half-ass work.

I have to assume that the same thing occurs in new housing construction.

~

One of my properties was near NTC / Liberty Station so I kept a close eye on the development there.

Navy records show 50-60 toxic hot spots on the property and there are questions about how well these sites were cleaned up.

The most telling point to me is that McMillan trucked in six feet of clean topsoil before building on the home sites. Wouldn’t want anyone to test the soil in their front yard now would we?

McMillan told the city that he needed the extra height so the sewage would drain which is interesting since none of the historic buildings are being raised but I assume they will have bathrooms in them???

Here’s a website that tracks ongoing issues at Liberty Station: http://www.ntcsd.org/ – spend some time at this site if you want to see how badly the city and McMillan are screwing the public on this deal.

~

I think there is a bigger issue that ties into poor workmanship and low quality construction and that is that Americans have developed a sense of entitlement.

Many people seem to think that they are entitled to a middle-class (or better) lifestyle without working or certainly without working very hard.

I’m not sure how we address this issue. I think it will take another depression like the 1930’s to wake people up.

If I was in charge of this country I would institute a “No Work-y, No Eat-y” program. “You no work-y, you no eat-y.”

[4plexowner]

Unfortunately, anyone that becomes an American citizen is eligible for Social Security, Medicare, Aid for Dependent Children, food stamps, etc.

We also don’t let anyone die on the curbs in America so all of these people would have access to free healthcare by showing up in a hospital emergency room. (this may already be true – can illegals go to the emergency room? – how do they have their babies in our country?)

I don’t have a problem with hard working people coming to America LEGALLY and contributing to our society – but that is not what the current push for amnesty is about IMO.

~

Yes on high density and mass transit.

I was in Vancouver recently. Lots of high-rise apartment and condo buildings and almost no freeways!

[4plexowner]

Wall street is looking for a new supply of suckers (oops, I mean money) to replace the money that the boomers will be pulling out.

This, IMO, is the biggest push behind the ‘privatize social security’ idea.

If they can sell the American sheeple on this idea, some or all of the new money going into Social Security will go directly to Wall Street and equities.

Another way of replacing the money that boomers are going to pull out of the markets is by offering amnesty to the 30 million illegal (oops, I mean undocumented) aliens currently in this country.

The push towards amnesty is going on right now.

From what I have read, all of the legislation currently being planned to address the illegal immigration issue includes some form of amnesty for these criminals (that’s right, criminals!).

30 million new people who can be sucked into the social security game, coerced to pay income taxes, etc.

~

What are we going to do with all of these 3500+ sqft houses?

Now that’s a good question.

Matt Simmons is predicting that the current production of 84 million barrels of oil per day will drop to 20 million by the year 2020.

How much will energy cost at that point?

How many Americans will be able to afford the heat and A/C for 3500 sqft of housing?

Maybe the tree-huggers will do us all a favor and start burning down any house over 2000 sqft.

Now that would be creative destruction!

Some of the 3500+ sqft houses will be ready for tear-down before they are 20 years old. Talk about low quality trash! And people are paying $800K to $2 mil for this stuff! It’s mind-boggling!!!

[4plexowner]

There are two economic factors that will play into the real estate bottom:

1. In 2008 the leading edge of the 78 million baby boomers will be 62 yrs old and eligible for early Social Security benefits.

2. In 2010 the boomers will be 65 and eligible for full SS bennies. They will also be eligible for Medicare and the prescription drug benefit.

The Social Security ‘Trust Fund’ is empty. Mr Bush admitted that to us in a 2005 speech at the Univ of West Virginia where he said, “There is no trust fund – just IOUs.” (he was trying to sell us on the ‘privatize SS’ idea at the time)

The boomer retirement will have a huge financial impact on this country.

Remember that many boomers are counting on the equity in their homes to fund their retirement.

It is possible that another glut of houses could come on the market in 2008 / 2010 as the boomers try to retire. The boomers could be dumping houses for the whole decade.

All we can do is wait and see how everything shakes out.

I am telling my friends and family that 2009/2010 is the earliest that I will be buying anymore real estate.

[4plexowner]

Fat_Lazy – be careful of generalizations

I increased my net worth by a factor of 100 in the last eight years by investing in San Diego real estate and then selling it near the top.

I’m one of the ‘sour pusses’ predicting a 40-50% decline in the local market.

Do I have sour grapes about ‘missing out’?

Yep – I sold most of my property too soon – LOL (all the way to the bank)!

[4plexowner]

“Condo” will be a 4 letter word before this correction is over.

Condos are only one rung above mobile homes in the ladder of real estate.

[4plexowner]

What pisses me off about the lifestyle that you have noted is that I will be subsidizing health care for these people.

Some of my taxes and insurance premiums will be used to treat these people’s diabetes, gout, high blood pressure, heart disease, bypass surgery, etc.

As someone who takes responsibility for his own health and the health of his children, I think we should base access to healthcare on lifestyle.

“I’m sorry Joe Blow but your lifestyle of eating crap three meals a day, snacking constantly on empty calories, drinking sodas and never exercising doesn’t qualify you for healthcare unless you can pay for it out of your own pocket.”

[4plexowner]

I took another swing thru Liberty Station this morning.

There are 16 For Sale signs with one of them flying a SOLD sign.

There are 209 detached boxes in Liberty Station so currently, 7% of the development is for sale. Anyone know how this compares to other developments around town?

Interestingly, ALL of the streets have at least one box for sale and some of the streets have as many as 4.

~

Interesting factoid about Liberty Station: McMillan didn’t want to remediate the contaminated topsoil from the home sites so he trucked in 6 feet of clean topsoil before laying foundations.

Told the city that he needed the extra height so the sewage would drain!

Not to mention that he was then allowed to build up to the 30′ height max after starting from the new raised ground.

~

Don’t get me wrong about Liberty Station.

This property will be a gem in San Diego’s crown once all of the development is complete.

From my perception however, there are 209 FB’s living there and we haven’t even discussed the multi-unit crap (oops, I mean condos) that was built.

[4plexowner]

One of my co-workers lives in a gated community.

In a recent conversation he said that he likes it when the gates are broken because they are “a pain in the ass”.

[Author]

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