- This topic has 9 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by sdduuuude.
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September 30, 2006 at 9:59 PM #7645October 1, 2006 at 6:44 AM #36918LookoutBelowParticipant
Ahhhh…..As I was saying last year, "Therein lies the biggest problem" for the investor (gambler) on these silly real estate ventures…..but they kept the economy afloat for another 3 or 4 years and allowed the commodity traders to cash in on the resource futures.
Were reaching the "Critical mass" point of this cycle.
October 1, 2006 at 11:32 AM #36930no_such_realityParticipantThis is why I think we’re likely to actually see rents fall.
As the vacant speculator homes come back to the real market, vacancies in the complexes will increase. Once they return above their pain point, they’ll start the cycle of 1/2 off first month’s rent. Rent a year, get December free…
Even when people are capable of paying $1300/month rent, they won’t need to. We’re seeing it in HB already, the strip of condos along PCH at the beach has so many for rent and for sale signs up, only the biggest of idiots wouldn’t walk from one to another, literally, there’s four or five for rent in the same building from different owners.
October 1, 2006 at 1:00 PM #369354plexownerParticipantThousands of downtown condos will end up as rentals.
This glut of condo rentals will depress rents on single family houses.
Remember that housing that isn’t bought by a homeowner WILL become a rental eventually. It might sit on the market vacant for many months but eventually it will be added to the rental stock.
The only exception I know of to this rule is the condo towers across from the Convention Center that were left vacant for about 10 years since there was no market for them.
October 1, 2006 at 1:50 PM #36939AnonymousGuestPS, you say that there will be 1 million construction jobs lost in the real estate bust, this wouldn’t surprise me, but how did you determine this number? Last week the UT printed an article where some experts predicted 100,000 construction jobs will be lost in the next two years I believe. I think this is very optimistic but am curious where you come up with the 1 million number.
In terms of the lost jobs, I expect the majority of these jobs that will be lost are held by illegal immigrants so the primary net effect will actually be many illegals going back to Mexico which is a good thing for the country.
October 1, 2006 at 2:23 PM #36941powaysellerParticipantWon’t the banks lower the prices on the foreclosed homes until they are sold? They won’t want to rent them out,will they?
Can someone explain this? There was a Poway house on Twin Peaks Rd that went to auction last week, and the realtor told me, “It was purchased by Wells Fargo 9/22/06 and listed @$655000”. What does that mean? Wells Fargo is listed as the lender on one of the NODs.
October 1, 2006 at 2:30 PM #36943BugsParticipantIf they’re looking at the public records available through the MLS it might appear that Wells purchased when in fact they foreclosed. The transfer kinda looks like a sale.
October 1, 2006 at 2:35 PM #36944powaysellerParticipantThat info came from the contact agent listed in foreclosure.com, so he was only giving me the info he was allowed to give, I think. Maybe it didn’t sell, and Wells Fargo continues to own it. It was “bank owned” before the auction.
October 1, 2006 at 4:39 PM #36964no_such_realityParticipantI think you’re getting some accounting double talk.
If the bank forecloses, they set a trustee sale. The trustee attempts to auction it off for as much as possible, if no one will step up and pay as much as the bank is owed on it, then the bank takes possession at the default amount. Hence, the bank owns it at $655K the amount owed on the loan. When they sell it, they’ll want as close to that as possible since otherwise they carry asset lossed forward and start to dent their earnings.
October 1, 2006 at 8:22 PM #36981sdduuuudeParticipantPowayseller – I must say I really agree with you on this one. What a waste.
As you say, though – the market should reduce the price until supply = demand. But I think it will take a while.
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